Kose is the clear favourite, the model rating them at 62% for a home win, with a 15% chance of a draw and 23% for an away victory. The Cup fixture is expected to be a high-scoring affair, averaging 6.2 goals, and the most likely total is 6 + with a 58% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 3-2 for Kose, with a 5.5% chance. Kose’s home form shows they average only 0.5 goals scored and concede 6.5 against similar opponents, while Tartu Welco, playing away, averages 2.5 goals scored and 1.7 conceded versus similar opposition. The model’s suggested picks include Over 1.5 (98.7%), Home over 0.5 goals (97.6%), Over 2.5 (94.5%), Away over 0.5 goals (91.2%), BTTS Yes (89.2%), Home over 1.5 goals (88.8%), Home +2 handicap (87.7%) and Over 3.5 (86.4%). All selections are presented with their exact probabilities, and the model’s single most likely result remains a Kose home win.
Results analysis
Kose finished 0-8 against Tartu Welco (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 62% home win, 15% draw and 23% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (99%), Over 2.5 (94%), Away over 0.5 goals (91%), Over 3.5 (86%). Missed: Home over 0.5 goals (98%), BTTS Yes (89%), Home over 1.5 goals (89%), Home +2 handicap (88%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kose win✗ Miss
62.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
14.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco win✓ Hit
22.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kose
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
7.0
Avg scored
3.5
Avg conceded
3.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
3.50
3.50
3.00
4.33
5.00
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
0.50
6.50
0.50
6.50
-
-
vs Weaker (2)
6.50
0.50
8.00
0.00
5.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
25% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tartu Welco
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.4
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.40
1.57
2.31
1.38
2.47
1.71
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
5.00
-
-
1.00
5.00
vs Similar (19)
2.42
1.58
2.33
1.44
2.50
1.70
vs Weaker (10)
2.50
1.20
2.25
1.25
2.67
1.17
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Kose) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 6.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (58%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
98.7%
Under 1.5
1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
94.5%
Under 2.5
5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
86.4%
Under 3.5
13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
89.2%
No
10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-2
5.5%
4-2
5.1%
3-1
4.5%
3-3
4.4%
2-2
4.4%
4-1
4.2%
4-3
4.1%
5-2
3.8%
Kose goals ↓
Tartu Welco goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0.4%
0.3%
0.6%
0.5%
0.3%
1
0.6%
2.1%
2.3%
1.9%
1.1%
2
1.5%
3.6%
4.4%
3.5%
2.2%
3
1.9%
4.5%
5.5%
4.4%
2.7%
4
1.7%
4.2%
5.1%
4.1%
2.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kose goals (down), columns = Tartu Welco goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Flora Tallinn
2.60
Vaprus
2.40
Paide
2.40
Tartu Welco
2.40
Trans Narva
2.40
Tallinna Kalev
2.25
Elva
2.25
Nõmme United
2.25
Keila
2.00
Tallinna Kalev II
2.00
Laagri
2.00
Tallinna FC Zapoos
2.00
Poseidon
2.00
Saku Sporting
2.00
FC Tallinn
2.00
Tammeka
2.00
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.00
Viimsi
1.80
Saue
1.50
Tallinna Wolves
1.50
Joker
1.50
Läänemaa Haapsalu
1.50
Hell Hunt
1.50
Tabasalu Ulasabat
1.50
Team Helm
1.50
Tulevik
1.50
Tamper
1.50
Kristiine JK
1.50
Kompanii Marjamaa
1.50
Flora II
1.50
Kuressaare
1.50
Kalju Nomme
1.50
Rae Spordikool
1.33
Volta II / Arsenal
1.00
Tammeka Tartu U19
0.96
Lahte United
0.96
Nomme Utd U19
0.96
Rakvere FC Freedom
0.96
Jõgeva Wolves
0.96
Kummik
0.96
Elva III
0.96
Deliirium
0.96
Paide III
0.96
Generation Tallinn
0.96
Rumori Calcio II
0.96
Kena
0.96
Harju JK Laagri U21
0.96
Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta
0.96
Järva-Jaani
0.00
FC Kohvile
0.00
Welco X
0.00
Vigri Maarjamäe
0.00
Flora III
0.00
Vana Hea Puur
0.00
Hiiumaa
0.00
Helios
0.00
Zealot Sporting
0.00
Kose
0.00
TalTech
0.00
Kuusalu Kalev
0.00
Raplamaa
0.00
Soccernet
0.00
EstHam United
0.00
Legion
0.00
Phoenix
0.00
JK Tabasalu
0.00
Tartu Kalev
0.00
Rumori Calcio
0.00
Olympic
0.00
TransferWise
0.00
Kose is 2.40 points worse than Tartu Welco in terms of average points per game (0.00 vs 2.40).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Laagri
9.67
Tartu Welco
6.80
Tabasalu Ulasabat
6.50
Flora II
6.00
Vaprus
5.60
FC Tallinn
5.33
Flora Tallinn
4.80
Tammeka
4.67
Tallinna Wolves
4.50
Trans Narva
4.40
Rae Spordikool
4.00
Soccernet
4.00
Tallinna FC Zapoos
4.00
Kuressaare
4.00
Tallinna Kalev
3.25
Saue
3.00
Keila
3.00
Tulevik
3.00
Kompanii Marjamaa
3.00
Viimsi
3.00
Kalju Nomme
3.00
Paide
2.80
Nõmme United
2.75
Tallinna Kalev II
2.67
Saku Sporting
2.67
Joker
2.50
Tamper
2.50
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.50
Elva
2.25
Tammeka Tartu U19
2.24
Lahte United
2.24
Nomme Utd U19
2.24
Rakvere FC Freedom
2.24
Jõgeva Wolves
2.24
Kummik
2.24
Elva III
2.24
Deliirium
2.24
Paide III
2.24
Generation Tallinn
2.24
Rumori Calcio II
2.24
Kena
2.24
Harju JK Laagri U21
2.24
Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta
2.24
Volta II / Arsenal
2.00
Team Helm
2.00
Rumori Calcio
2.00
Kristiine JK
2.00
Poseidon
1.67
Järva-Jaani
1.00
Flora III
1.00
Läänemaa Haapsalu
1.00
Zealot Sporting
1.00
TalTech
1.00
Hell Hunt
1.00
Raplamaa
1.00
Phoenix
1.00
Tartu Kalev
1.00
FC Kohvile
0.00
Welco X
0.00
Vigri Maarjamäe
0.00
Vana Hea Puur
0.00
Hiiumaa
0.00
Helios
0.00
Kose
0.00
Kuusalu Kalev
0.00
EstHam United
0.00
Legion
0.00
JK Tabasalu
0.00
Olympic
0.00
TransferWise
0.00
Kose is 6.80 goals worse than Tartu Welco in terms of goals scored per game (0.00 vs 6.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Tallinna Kalev II
0.33
Laagri
0.33
Tartu Welco
0.40
FC Levadia Tallinn
0.50
Flora Tallinn
0.60
Trans Narva
0.80
Vaprus
1.00
Kuressaare
1.00
Kalju Nomme
1.00
Paide
1.20
Elva
1.25
Nõmme United
1.25
Tallinna FC Zapoos
1.33
Tammeka
1.33
Läänemaa Haapsalu
1.50
Tabasalu Ulasabat
1.50
Kompanii Marjamaa
1.50
Volta II / Arsenal
2.00
Tartu Kalev
2.00
Saku Sporting
2.00
Tallinna Kalev
2.00
Poseidon
2.33
FC Tallinn
2.33
Saue
2.50
Flora II
2.50
Viimsi
2.60
Hiiumaa
3.00
Helios
3.00
Legion
3.00
Tamper
3.00
Joker
3.50
Hell Hunt
3.50
Järva-Jaani
4.00
FC Kohvile
4.00
Keila
4.00
Tallinna Wolves
4.00
Vigri Maarjamäe
4.00
Rae Spordikool
4.00
Rumori Calcio
4.00
Kristiine JK
4.00
Tammeka Tartu U19
4.31
Lahte United
4.31
Nomme Utd U19
4.31
Rakvere FC Freedom
4.31
Jõgeva Wolves
4.31
Kummik
4.31
Elva III
4.31
Deliirium
4.31
Paide III
4.31
Generation Tallinn
4.31
Rumori Calcio II
4.31
Kena
4.31
Harju JK Laagri U21
4.31
Põhja-Tallinna JK Volta
4.31
Raplamaa
5.00
Vana Hea Puur
6.00
Soccernet
6.00
Phoenix
6.00
JK Tabasalu
6.00
Olympic
6.00
Tulevik
6.50
Zealot Sporting
7.00
Kose
7.00
TalTech
7.00
Team Helm
7.00
Welco X
8.00
Flora III
8.00
EstHam United
9.00
Kuusalu Kalev
16.00
TransferWise
26.00
Kose is 6.60 goals worse than Tartu Welco in terms of goals conceded per game (7.00 vs 0.40).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kose or Draw✗ Miss
77.3%
Avg Implied -
62%
15%
23%
covers Kose + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kose or Tartu Welco✓ Hit
85.2%
Avg Implied -
62%
15%
23%
covers Kose + Tartu Welco
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Tartu Welco✓ Hit
37.5%
Avg Implied -
62%
15%
23%
covers Draw + Tartu Welco
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kose over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
97.6%
Under
2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kose over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
88.8%
Under
11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kose over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
72.2%
Under
27.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kose over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
51.5%
Under
48.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
91.2%
Under
8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
69.8%
Under
30.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
43.8%
Under
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
22.7%
Under
77.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Kose, so a minus line means Kose give that many goals of a start and Tartu Welco receive them. At -1, Kose must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kose win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Kose)Actual: Tartu Welco
Kose -2
30.7%
Draw -2
15.5%
Tartu Welco +2
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Kose)Actual: Tartu Welco
Kose -1
46.3%
Draw -1
16.2%
Tartu Welco +1
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Kose)Actual: Tartu Welco
Kose +1
77.3%
Draw +1
10.4%
Tartu Welco -1
12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Kose)Actual: Tartu Welco
Kose +2
87.7%
Draw +2
6.5%
Tartu Welco -2
5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kose
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
2.00
0.67
2.33
4.00
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
0.00
3.50
0.00
3.50
-
-
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
0.50
2.00
0.00
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
25% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tartu Welco
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.97
0.92
0.92
1.12
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
3.00
-
-
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (19)
1.16
1.05
1.00
0.89
1.30
1.20
vs Weaker (10)
0.80
0.60
0.75
1.00
0.83
0.33
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Kose) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kose over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kose over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kose over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kose
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
1.50
2.33
2.00
1.00
0.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
0.50
3.00
0.50
3.00
-
-
vs Weaker (2)
3.50
0.00
6.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Tartu Welco) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tartu Welco
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.60
1.38
0.46
1.35
0.71
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (19)
1.26
0.53
1.33
0.56
1.20
0.50
vs Weaker (10)
1.70
0.60
1.50
0.25
1.83
0.83
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Kose) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kose over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kose over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kose over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tartu Welco over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
BTTS Yes
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home over 1.5 goals
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 3.5 goals
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 4.5
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 2.5 goals
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 7.5
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
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Estonia: Esiliiga A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →