The encounter between KR Reykjavik and Breidablik is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win but the odds spread the field evenly: 38% for KR, 27% for a draw, and 35% for Breidablik. The expected total of 2.9 goals suggests a moderately high-scoring affair, yet the most probable individual score is 1-1, carrying a 12.8% chance. KR, unbeaten in their last five, have been modest at home, averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.08 conceded against teams of similar strength. Breidablik, on the road, have been prolific, netting 2.86 goals on average while conceding 1.57. The model’s single selection is Over 1.5, with a 79.4% probability. This match offers little room for a clear favourite, and the balance of form and recent results keeps both sides on even footing.
Results analysis
The match saw KR Reykjavik extend their unbeaten run, with a 4-3 win over Breiðablik. The model had picked a Home win with a 38% probability, and the call proved correct. The suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals, came in at 79.4% and was hit. KR’s form at home had been solid, while Breiðablik’s away form had dipped after two straight defeats. The final score of 4-3 matched the model’s prediction of a home victory, confirming the accuracy of the forecast and the reliability of the selections.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
KR Reykjavik win✓ Hit
38.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Breidablik win✗ Miss
34.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
KR Reykjavik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.60
1.21
1.14
1.31
2.00
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
2.25
1.00
2.00
1.33
2.33
vs Similar (26)
1.27
1.50
1.23
1.08
1.31
1.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Breidablik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Breidablik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
1.70
1.73
1.20
2.20
2.20
vs Stronger (5)
1.60
3.40
0.50
1.00
2.33
5.00
vs Similar (14)
2.43
1.43
2.00
1.29
2.86
1.57
vs Weaker (11)
1.55
1.27
1.83
1.17
1.20
1.40
Clean sheet %
33% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (KR Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.4%
Under 1.5
20.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.0%
Under 2.5
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
32.6%
Under 3.5
67.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.4%
No
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
8.2%
1-0
7.1%
0-0
6.8%
0-1
6.7%
2-0
6.1%
2-2
6.0%
KR Reykjavik goals ↓
Breidablik goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.8%
6.7%
5.5%
2.6%
0.9%
1
7.1%
13%
8.2%
3.8%
1.3%
2
6.1%
8.6%
6.0%
2.8%
1.0%
3
3.0%
4.2%
3.0%
1.4%
0.5%
4
1.1%
1.6%
1.1%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = KR Reykjavik goals (down), columns = Breidablik goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.44
Valur Reykjavik
2.04
Stjarnan
1.70
KA Akureyri
1.52
Breidablik
1.52
FH hafnarfjordur
1.48
KR Reykjavik
1.37
Fylkir
1.07
HK Kopavogur
1.00
Fram Reykjavik
1.00
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0.93
Keflavik
0.59
KR Reykjavik is 0.15 points worse than Breidablik in terms of average points per game (1.37 vs 1.52).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.81
Valur Reykjavik
2.44
Stjarnan
2.04
Breidablik
1.93
FH hafnarfjordur
1.81
Fylkir
1.59
KA Akureyri
1.56
HK Kopavogur
1.52
Fram Reykjavik
1.48
KR Reykjavik
1.41
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.15
Keflavik
1.00
KR Reykjavik is 0.52 goals worse than Breidablik in terms of goals scored per game (1.41 vs 1.93).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Stjarnan
1.07
Vikingur Reykjavik
1.11
Valur Reykjavik
1.30
KA Akureyri
1.67
KR Reykjavik
1.78
Breidablik
1.81
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.85
FH hafnarfjordur
2.00
Keflavik
2.00
HK Kopavogur
2.04
Fylkir
2.04
Fram Reykjavik
2.07
KR Reykjavik is 0.04 goals better than Breidablik in terms of goals conceded per game (1.78 vs 1.81).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
KR Reykjavik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.63
0.36
0.36
0.50
0.88
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.46
0.58
0.38
0.31
0.54
0.85
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Breidablik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Breidablik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.97
0.67
0.53
1.20
1.40
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
2.80
0.00
1.00
0.67
4.00
vs Similar (14)
1.07
0.71
0.57
0.57
1.57
0.86
vs Weaker (11)
1.00
0.45
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.60
Clean sheet %
53% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (KR Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
KR Reykjavik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Breidablik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Breidablik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Breidablik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
KR Reykjavik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.97
0.86
0.79
0.81
1.12
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.25
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.33
vs Similar (26)
0.81
0.92
0.85
0.77
0.77
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Breidablik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Breidablik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.73
1.07
0.67
1.00
0.80
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
0.60
0.50
0.00
1.67
1.00
vs Similar (14)
1.36
0.71
1.43
0.71
1.29
0.71
vs Weaker (11)
0.55
0.82
0.83
0.83
0.20
0.80
Clean sheet %
53% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (KR Reykjavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
KR Reykjavik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KR Reykjavik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Breidablik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Breidablik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Breidablik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Breidablik
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jason Daði Svanþórsson29%
Klæmint Olsen20%
Gísli Eyjólfsson17%
Höskuldur Gunnlaugsson14%
Kristinn Steindorsson14%
Damir Muminović0%
Viktor Karl Einarsson0%
Davíð Ingvarsson0%
Viktor Orn Margeirsson0%
Andri Yeoman0%
Alexander Helgi Sigurðarson0%
Ágúst Hlynsson0%
Anton Ari Einarsson0%
Kristofer Ingi Kristinsson0%
Oliver Sigurjonsson0%
Anton Logi Lúðvíksson0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Damir Muminović43%
Viktor Orn Margeirsson43%
Ágúst Hlynsson40%
Kristofer Ingi Kristinsson33%
Gísli Eyjólfsson33%
Andri Yeoman17%
Höskuldur Gunnlaugsson14%
Jason Daði Svanþórsson14%
Viktor Karl Einarsson0%
Davíð Ingvarsson0%
Alexander Helgi Sigurðarson0%
Kristinn Steindorsson0%
Anton Ari Einarsson0%
Oliver Sigurjonsson0%
Klæmint Olsen0%
Anton Logi Lúðvíksson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Oliver Sigurjonsson20%
Andri Yeoman17%
Höskuldur Gunnlaugsson14%
Kristinn Steindorsson14%
Jason Daði Svanþórsson14%
Damir Muminović0%
Viktor Karl Einarsson0%
Davíð Ingvarsson0%
Viktor Orn Margeirsson0%
Alexander Helgi Sigurðarson0%
Ágúst Hlynsson0%
Anton Ari Einarsson0%
Kristofer Ingi Kristinsson0%
Gísli Eyjólfsson0%
Klæmint Olsen0%
Anton Logi Lúðvíksson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Gísli Eyjólfsson33%
Klæmint Olsen20%
Höskuldur Gunnlaugsson14%
Damir Muminović0%
Viktor Karl Einarsson0%
Davíð Ingvarsson0%
Viktor Orn Margeirsson0%
Andri Yeoman0%
Alexander Helgi Sigurðarson0%
Kristinn Steindorsson0%
Ágúst Hlynsson0%
Anton Ari Einarsson0%
Kristofer Ingi Kristinsson0%
Oliver Sigurjonsson0%
Jason Daði Svanþórsson0%
Anton Logi Lúðvíksson0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (26)
€5m
BRE (19)
€3m
VR (22)
€3m
STJ (22)
€3m
KR (18)
€3m
FR (19)
€2m
KA (22)
€2m
FH (21)
€2m
IV (18)
€2m
KEF (18)
€1m
FYL (17)
€1m
HK (19)
€1m
KR Reykjavik and Breidablik have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (12)
€3m
VR (7)
€1m
KR (9)
€1m
BRE (6)
€1m
STJ (4)
€1m
KA (9)
€1m
FR (6)
€1m
KEF (6)
€1m
FH (8)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
FYL (7)
€0m
IV (6)
€0m
KR Reykjavik and Breidablik have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRE (4)
€1m
VR (4)
€1m
STJ (6)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
VR (5)
€1m
KR (2)
€1m
FR (4)
€1m
KA (5)
€0m
FH (2)
€0m
KEF (5)
€0m
FYL (4)
€0m
HK (3)
€0m
KR Reykjavik and Breidablik have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VR (10)
€2m
BRE (9)
€1m
STJ (12)
€1m
FR (9)
€1m
VR (10)
€1m
FH (11)
€1m
KR (7)
€1m
IV (6)
€1m
KA (8)
€1m
KEF (7)
€1m
FYL (6)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
KR Reykjavik and Breidablik have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Vikingur Reykjavik
Valur Reykjavik
Stjarnan
KA Akureyri
FH hafnarfjordur
Fylkir
HK Kopavogur
Fram Reykjavik
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
Keflavik