PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Kremin' vs Yarud Mariupol' Result & Analysis

Date: 24/09/2023
Time: 09:30
Final 0-3
Kremin
Kremin'
Vs
23%
26%
51%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Yarud Mariupol
Yarud Mariupol'
Ukraine: Persha Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Kremin' win✗ Miss
22.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' win✓ Hit
51.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

KreminKremin'

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-622D13L00D12L01L10W06L32W02L06LH·NYV22/05A·EPI27/05A·MET28/07A·DIN07/08H·VIK11/08A·HIR19/08H·SK 28/08A·CHE02/09H·INH08/09A·LIV17/09
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.332.001.572.001.122.00
vs Stronger (9)0.442.670.751.500.203.60
vs Similar (21)1.711.711.902.201.551.27
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Yarud Mariupol') is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Yarud MariupolYarud Mariupol'

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D01L00D01L11D11D11D21W10W22DA·KHU03/06H·KHU09/06H·VIK27/07A·HIR07/08H·SK 11/08H·INH28/08A·LIV01/09H·DIN08/09A·CHE13/09H·MET17/09
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.430.751.501.291.36
vs Stronger (9)0.671.670.401.201.002.25
vs Similar (21)1.141.330.911.641.401.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %10% (-22pp vs league)
This opponent (Kremin') is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%7%015%125%222%316%49%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.9%
Under 1.5
22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.9%
Under 2.5
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.7%
Under 3.5
69.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.2%
No
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%
1-2
9.7%
0-1
9.4%
0-2
9.0%
0-0
7.2%
2-1
6.1%
1-3
5.6%
1-0
5.4%
Kremin' goals ↓
Yarud Mariupol' goals →
01234
07.2%9.4%9.0%5.2%2.2%
15.4%12%9.7%5.6%2.4%
23.5%6.1%5.2%3.0%1.3%
31.3%2.2%1.9%1.1%0.5%
40.3%0.6%0.5%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kremin' goals (down), columns = Yarud Mariupol' goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
UCSA
3.00
Inhulets
2.39
Karpaty
2.32
Zvyahel
2.00
Livyi Bereh
1.93
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.57
Bukovyna
1.46
Nyva Buzova
1.43
Prykarpattia
1.43
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
1.39
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.39
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.36
SK Poltava
1.32
Yarud Mariupol'
1.32
Nyva Ternopil
1.29
Metal Kharkiv
1.07
Dinaz Vyshhorod
1.07
Khust City
1.00
Metalurh Zaporizhya
0.93
Kremin'
0.89
Hirnyk-Sport
0.82
Chernihiv
0.82
Kremin' is 0.43 points worse than Yarud Mariupol' in terms of average points per game (0.89 vs 1.32).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
UCSA
3.50
Inhulets
2.14
Livyi Bereh
2.11
SK Poltava
1.75
Karpaty
1.75
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.39
Bukovyna
1.36
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
1.29
Prykarpattia
1.25
Chernihiv
1.21
Khust City
1.17
Nyva Buzova
1.14
Dinaz Vyshhorod
1.11
Yarud Mariupol'
1.04
Nyva Ternopil
1.04
Zvyahel
1.00
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
0.96
Metal Kharkiv
0.96
Metalurh Zaporizhya
0.93
Hirnyk-Sport
0.86
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
0.82
Kremin'
0.71
Kremin' is 0.32 goals worse than Yarud Mariupol' in terms of goals scored per game (0.71 vs 1.04).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Zvyahel
0.50
UCSA
0.50
Inhulets
0.61
Karpaty
0.71
Livyi Bereh
0.75
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
0.93
Yarud Mariupol'
0.93
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
0.96
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.04
Bukovyna
1.04
Nyva Ternopil
1.04
Prykarpattia
1.07
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.18
Nyva Buzova
1.21
Metal Kharkiv
1.21
Dinaz Vyshhorod
1.36
SK Poltava
1.61
Kremin'
1.71
Hirnyk-Sport
1.75
Metalurh Zaporizhya
1.83
Khust City
1.83
Chernihiv
2.36
Kremin' is 0.79 goals worse than Yarud Mariupol' in terms of goals conceded per game (1.71 vs 0.93).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

KreminKremin'

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D01L00D02L01L10W01L12L01L03LH·NYV22/05A·EPI27/05A·MET28/07A·DIN07/08H·VIK11/08A·HIR19/08H·SK 28/08A·CHE02/09H·INH08/09A·LIV17/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.571.200.570.930.561.44
vs Stronger (9)0.111.670.251.000.002.20
vs Similar (21)0.761.000.700.900.821.09
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Yarud Mariupol') is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Yarud MariupolYarud Mariupol'

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D00D00D00D01L01L21W00D11DA·KHU03/06H·KHU09/06H·VIK27/07A·HIR07/08H·SK 11/08H·INH28/08A·LIV01/09H·DIN08/09A·CHE13/09H·MET17/09
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.730.310.690.360.79
vs Stronger (9)0.330.780.200.400.501.25
vs Similar (21)0.330.710.360.820.300.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Kremin') is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kremin' over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kremin' over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kremin' over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

KreminKremin'

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D12L00D10W00D00D05L20W01L03LH·NYV22/05A·EPI27/05A·MET28/07A·DIN07/08H·VIK11/08A·HIR19/08H·SK 28/08A·CHE02/09H·INH08/09A·LIV17/09
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.801.001.070.560.56
vs Stronger (9)0.331.000.500.500.201.40
vs Similar (21)0.950.711.201.300.730.18
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Yarud Mariupol') is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Yarud MariupolYarud Mariupol'

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-111D01L00D01L11D10W10W00D10W11DA·KHU03/06H·KHU09/06H·VIK27/07A·HIR07/08H·SK 11/08H·INH28/08A·LIV01/09H·DIN08/09A·CHE13/09H·MET17/09
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.700.440.810.930.57
vs Stronger (9)0.330.890.200.800.501.00
vs Similar (21)0.810.620.550.821.100.40
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Kremin') is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kremin' over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kremin' over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kremin' over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.577.9%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAR (28)
€13m
BUK (25)
€9m
ED (23)
€6m
LB (25)
€5m
SP (22)
€4m
YM (21)
€3m
NT (23)
€3m
MK (17)
€3m
UCS (23)
€2m
AV (18)
€2m
CHE (22)
€2m
VM (19)
€2m
PRY (18)
€2m
INH (15)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAR (8)
€4m
BUK (10)
€4m
LB (7)
€2m
ED (6)
€1m
YM (6)
€1m
SP (5)
€1m
UCS (8)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
VM (5)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
MK (4)
€0m
AV (3)
€0m
CHE (4)
€0m
INH (6)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAR (5)
€2m
BUK (5)
€2m
ED (6)
€2m
YM (7)
€1m
LB (6)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SP (7)
€1m
NT (5)
€1m
VM (8)
€1m
AV (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
MK (5)
€1m
UCS (5)
€1m
INH (5)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAR (15)
€7m
BUK (10)
€3m
ED (11)
€3m
LB (12)
€2m
SP (10)
€2m
MK (8)
€2m
AV (11)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
UCS (10)
€1m
CHE (10)
€1m
INH (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
YM (8)
€1m
VM (6)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
KRE wins
0
Draws
0
YM wins

Head-to-head

Kremin' vs Yarud Mariupol' · H/A from KRE
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

KreminKremin'

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/09/23ALivyi Bereh Vs KRE6-0
08/09/23HKRE Vs Inhulets0-2
02/09/23AChernihiv Vs KRE2-3
28/08/23HKRE Vs SK Poltava0-6
19/08/23AHirnyk-Sport Vs KRE0-1
11/08/23HKRE Vs Viktoriya Mykolaivka0-1
07/08/23ADinaz Vyshhorod Vs KRE2-1
28/07/23AMetalurh Zaporizhya Vs KRE0-0
27/05/23AEpitsentr Dunayivtsi Vs KRE3-1
22/05/23HKRE Vs Nyva Ternopil2-2

Yarud MariupolYarud Mariupol'

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/09/23HYM Vs Metalurh Zaporizhya2-2
13/09/23AChernihiv Vs YM0-1
08/09/23HYM Vs Dinaz Vyshhorod2-1
01/09/23ALivyi Bereh Vs YM1-1
28/08/23HYM Vs Inhulets1-1
11/08/23HYM Vs SK Poltava1-1
07/08/23AHirnyk-Sport Vs YM1-0
27/07/23HYM Vs Viktoriya Mykolaivka0-0
09/06/23HYM Vs Khust City0-1
03/06/23AKhust City Vs YM1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Kremin
Kremin'
Ukraine: Persha Liga
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWLL1.10
HomeDDLLL1.07
AwayDLWWL1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%29%31%
AVG goals3.333.573.12
Over 1.5 %87%93%81%
Over 2.5 %57%64%50%
Over 3.5 %40%43%38%
Scored1.331.571.12
Conceded2.002.002.00
BTTS40%43%38%
Clean Sheet20%14%25%
Corners---
Cards---
Yarud Mariupol
Yarud Mariupol'
Ukraine: Persha Liga
Recent: 2 Wins / 6 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWWD0.81
HomeDDDWD0.76
AwayLDLDW0.87
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %16%12%20%
AVG goals2.442.242.67
Over 1.5 %72%76%67%
Over 2.5 %38%29%47%
Over 3.5 %22%12%33%
Scored0.970.761.20
Conceded1.471.471.47
BTTS53%53%53%
Clean Sheet9%6%13%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1InhuletsInhulets2867
75%
2.4
6017+43
2.8
75%
57%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0012.10.6
-
2KarpatyKarpaty2865
71%
2.3
4920+29
2.5
64%
54%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
4271.80.7
-
3Livyi BerehLivyi Bereh2854
57%
1.9
5921+38
2.9
75%
54%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.10.8
-
4Epitsentr DunayivtsiEpitsentr Dunayivtsi2844
39%
1.6
3933+6
2.6
79%
43%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
1231.41.2
-
5BukovynaBukovyna2841
43%
1.5
3829+9
2.4
61%
39%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4231.41.0
-
6PrykarpattiaPrykarpattia2840
36%
1.4
3530+5
2.3
61%
36%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.21.1
-
7Nyva BuzovaNyva Buzova2840
36%
1.4
3234-2
2.4
68%
39%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.2
-
8Podillya KhmelnytskyiPodillya Khmelnytskyi2839
32%
1.4
3626+10
2.2
75%
36%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.30.9
-
9Viktoriya MykolaivkaViktoriya Mykolaivka2839
36%
1.4
2327-4
1.8
46%
32%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.81.0
-
10Ahrobiznes VolochyskAhrobiznes Volochysk2838
36%
1.4
2729-2
2.0
64%
39%
7%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.01.0
-
11SK PoltavaSK Poltava2837
36%
1.3
4945+4
3.4
89%
75%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.81.6
-
12Yarud MariupolYarud Mariupol'2837
29%
1.3
2926+3
2.0
64%
29%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.00.9
-
13Nyva TernopilNyva Ternopil2836
32%
1.3
2929+0
2.1
61%
32%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.01.0
-
14Dinaz VyshhorodDinaz Vyshhorod2830
29%
1.1
3138-7
2.5
75%
46%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.4
-
15Metal KharkivMetal Kharkiv2830
25%
1.1
2734-7
2.2
64%
50%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0121.01.2
-
16Khust CityKhust City3030
30%
1.0
3555-20
3.0
70%
57%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.8
-
17Metalurh ZaporizhyaMetalurh Zaporizhya3028
23%
0.9
2855-27
2.8
73%
53%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.8
-
18KreminKremin'2825
21%
0.9
2048-28
2.4
57%
46%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.7
-
19Hirnyk-SportHirnyk-Sport2823
21%
0.8
2449-25
2.6
68%
39%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.8
-
20ChernihivChernihiv2823
21%
0.8
3466-32
3.6
89%
71%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.22.4
-
21UCSAUCSA26
100%
3.0
71+6
4.0
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1113.50.5
-
22ZvyahelZvyahel24
50%
2.0
21+1
1.5
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.5
-
Ukraine: Persha Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ukraine: Persha Liga stats & trends →

← all matches