Krka are tipped to edge Dekani, the model favouring a home win with a 47% chance, while draws and away victories sit at 27% each. The expected total goals hover at 2.9, but the single most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, carrying a 12.6% probability. Krka’s home form against similar opponents shows an average of one goal scored and none conceded, whereas Dekani’s away record against similar teams yields two goals scored and 1.5 conceded. The model’s selection includes an Over 1.5 goal pick at 78.9%. Recent form paints a picture: Krka, after three straight defeats, lost 2-3 to Primorje, while Dekani, coming off a draw, were held 0-0 by Krško. The match is expected to be tight, with Krka’s home advantage and recent struggles for Dekani tipping the scales toward a home victory.
Results analysis
Krka’s win extends a difficult run, ending three straight defeats with a 1-0 victory over Dekani. The model’s favourite, Home win, was correct, and the final score confirmed the 1-0 result. The pre-match probability for a home win was 47%. The only other selection was Over 1.5 goals, with a 78.9% probability, but it missed as the match saw just one goal. The model had also predicted a most likely total of 2 goals, yet the actual total was one. Krka’s home form had been poor, but they finally broke the streak, while Dekani, after a draw, could not find the net.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Krka win✓ Hit
46.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dekani win✗ Miss
26.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Krka
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
0.33
2.33
0.33
1.33
0.33
vs Stronger (3)
2.00
0.33
3.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (3)
1.67
0.33
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Dekani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dekani
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.33
0.75
1.25
2.00
1.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.17
1.33
0.75
1.25
2.00
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Krka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
78.9%
Under 1.5
21.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
54.3%
Under 2.5
45.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.0%
Under 3.5
68.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.7%
No
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%
2-1
9.4%
1-0 ✓
8.3%
2-0
7.8%
0-0
6.9%
1-2
6.9%
0-1
5.8%
2-2
5.7%
Krka goals ↓
Dekani goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.9%
5.8%
4.2%
1.7%
0.5%
1
8.3%
13%
6.9%
2.8%
0.8%
2
7.8%
9.4%
5.7%
2.3%
0.7%
3
4.3%
5.2%
3.1%
1.3%
0.4%
4
1.8%
2.1%
1.3%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Krka goals (down), columns = Dekani goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rogaška
2.27
Aluminij
2.13
Ilirija
1.80
Krka
1.77
Beltinci
1.47
Primorje
1.37
Nafta
1.37
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.27
Bilje
1.23
Bistrica
1.23
Dekani
1.17
Triglav
1.17
Rudar
1.07
Fužinar
1.03
Krško
0.80
Dob
0.70
Krka is 0.60 points better than Dekani in terms of average points per game (1.77 vs 1.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Aluminij
1.93
Ilirija
1.83
Rogaška
1.73
Nafta
1.67
Beltinci
1.57
Krka
1.53
Primorje
1.40
Rudar
1.37
Bilje
1.33
Fužinar
1.30
Bistrica
1.30
Dob
1.23
Krško
1.20
Triglav
1.10
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.00
Dekani
0.90
Krka is 0.63 goals better than Dekani in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 0.90).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Rogaška
0.77
Aluminij
0.77
Krka
0.93
Dekani
0.97
Ilirija
1.00
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.23
Primorje
1.33
Bistrica
1.33
Nafta
1.43
Beltinci
1.50
Rudar
1.70
Triglav
1.73
Bilje
1.77
Fužinar
1.87
Krško
1.97
Dob
2.10
Krka is 0.03 goals better than Dekani in terms of goals conceded per game (0.93 vs 0.97).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Krka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.00
1.33
0.00
0.33
0.00
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (3)
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
100% (+71pp vs league)
This opponent (Dekani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dekani
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.50
0.25
0.50
1.00
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.50
0.50
0.25
0.50
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Krka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Krka over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dekani over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dekani over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dekani over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Krka
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.33
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (3)
1.33
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Dekani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dekani
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.83
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.67
0.83
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Krka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Krka over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dekani over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dekani over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dekani over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (24)
€4m
BRI (24)
€3m
NAF (18)
€2m
TRI (19)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
KRŠ (13)
€1m
Krka and Dekani have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (9)
€2m
NAF (8)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
KRŠ (4)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
Krka and Dekani have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (7)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
NAF (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
KRŠ (1)
€0m
Krka and Dekani have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (10)
€2m
BRI (10)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
KRŠ (8)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
Krka and Dekani have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →