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Krka vs Dekani Result & Analysis

Date: 09/09/2022
Time: 17:00
Final 1-0
Krka
Krka
Vs
47%
27%
27%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Dekani
Dekani
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Krka are tipped to edge Dekani, the model favouring a home win with a 47% chance, while draws and away victories sit at 27% each. The expected total goals hover at 2.9, but the single most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, carrying a 12.6% probability. Krka’s home form against similar opponents shows an average of one goal scored and none conceded, whereas Dekani’s away record against similar teams yields two goals scored and 1.5 conceded. The model’s selection includes an Over 1.5 goal pick at 78.9%. Recent form paints a picture: Krka, after three straight defeats, lost 2-3 to Primorje, while Dekani, coming off a draw, were held 0-0 by Krško. The match is expected to be tight, with Krka’s home advantage and recent struggles for Dekani tipping the scales toward a home victory.

Results analysis

Krka’s win extends a difficult run, ending three straight defeats with a 1-0 victory over Dekani. The model’s favourite, Home win, was correct, and the final score confirmed the 1-0 result. The pre-match probability for a home win was 47%. The only other selection was Over 1.5 goals, with a 78.9% probability, but it missed as the match saw just one goal. The model had also predicted a most likely total of 2 goals, yet the actual total was one. Krka’s home form had been poor, but they finally broke the streak, while Dekani, after a draw, could not find the net.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Krka win✓ Hit
46.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dekani win✗ Miss
26.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

KrkaKrka

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-441W00D20W31W10W10WH·BRI29/07A·NAF05/08H·TRI14/08A·FUŽ20/08H·BIS26/08A·BEL03/09
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.830.332.330.331.330.33
vs Stronger (3)2.000.333.000.500.000.00
vs Similar (3)1.670.331.000.002.000.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Dekani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DekaniDekani

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L03L11D22D40W01LH·BIS30/07A·BEL07/08H·RUD14/08H·DOB21/08A·BIL27/08H·PRI03/09
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.330.751.252.001.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)1.171.330.751.252.001.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Krka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%25%7%014%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
78.9%
Under 1.5
21.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
54.3%
Under 2.5
45.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.0%
Under 3.5
68.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.7%
No
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%
2-1
9.4%
1-0 ✓
8.3%
2-0
7.8%
0-0
6.9%
1-2
6.9%
0-1
5.8%
2-2
5.7%
Krka goals ↓
Dekani goals →
01234
06.9%5.8%4.2%1.7%0.5%
18.3%13%6.9%2.8%0.8%
27.8%9.4%5.7%2.3%0.7%
34.3%5.2%3.1%1.3%0.4%
41.8%2.1%1.3%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Krka goals (down), columns = Dekani goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Rogaška
2.27
Aluminij
2.13
Ilirija
1.80
Krka
1.77
Beltinci
1.47
Primorje
1.37
Nafta
1.37
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.27
Bilje
1.23
Bistrica
1.23
Dekani
1.17
Triglav
1.17
Rudar
1.07
Fužinar
1.03
Krško
0.80
Dob
0.70
Krka is 0.60 points better than Dekani in terms of average points per game (1.77 vs 1.17).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Aluminij
1.93
Ilirija
1.83
Rogaška
1.73
Nafta
1.67
Beltinci
1.57
Krka
1.53
Primorje
1.40
Rudar
1.37
Bilje
1.33
Fužinar
1.30
Bistrica
1.30
Dob
1.23
Krško
1.20
Triglav
1.10
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.00
Dekani
0.90
Krka is 0.63 goals better than Dekani in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 0.90).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Rogaška
0.77
Aluminij
0.77
Krka
0.93
Dekani
0.97
Ilirija
1.00
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.23
Primorje
1.33
Bistrica
1.33
Nafta
1.43
Beltinci
1.50
Rudar
1.70
Triglav
1.73
Bilje
1.77
Fužinar
1.87
Krško
1.97
Dob
2.10
Krka is 0.03 goals better than Dekani in terms of goals conceded per game (0.93 vs 0.97).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

KrkaKrka

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W00D20W10W00D00DH·BRI29/07A·NAF05/08H·TRI14/08A·FUŽ20/08H·BIS26/08A·BEL03/09
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.001.330.000.330.00
vs Stronger (3)1.330.002.000.000.000.00
vs Similar (3)0.330.000.000.000.500.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %100% (+71pp vs league)
This opponent (Dekani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DekaniDekani

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L01L10W20W01LH·BIS30/07A·BEL07/08H·RUD14/08H·DOB21/08A·BIL27/08H·PRI03/09
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.500.250.501.000.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)0.500.500.250.501.000.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Krka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Krka over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dekani over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dekani over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dekani over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

KrkaKrka

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W00D00D21W10W10WH·BRI29/07A·NAF05/08H·TRI14/08A·FUŽ20/08H·BIS26/08A·BEL03/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.331.000.331.000.33
vs Stronger (3)0.670.331.000.500.000.00
vs Similar (3)1.330.331.000.001.500.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Dekani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DekaniDekani

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L02L10W12L20W00DH·BIS30/07A·BEL07/08H·RUD14/08H·DOB21/08A·BIL27/08H·PRI03/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.830.500.751.001.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)0.670.830.500.751.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Krka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Krka over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krka over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dekani over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dekani over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dekani over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.578.9%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (24)
€4m
BRI (24)
€3m
NAF (18)
€2m
TRI (19)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
KRŠ (13)
€1m
Krka and Dekani have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (9)
€2m
NAF (8)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
KRŠ (4)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
Krka and Dekani have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (7)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
NAF (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
KRŠ (1)
€0m
Krka and Dekani have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (10)
€2m
BRI (10)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
KRŠ (8)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
Krka and Dekani have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
KRK wins
0
Draws
0
DEK wins

Head-to-head

Krka vs Dekani · H/A from KRK
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

KrkaKrka

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/09/22ABeltinci Vs KRK0-1
26/08/22HKRK Vs Bistrica1-0
20/08/22AFužinar Vs KRK1-3
14/08/22HKRK Vs Triglav2-0
05/08/22ANafta Vs KRK0-0
29/07/22HKRK Vs Brinje-Grosuplje4-1

DekaniDekani

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/09/22HDEK Vs Primorje0-1
27/08/22ABilje Vs DEK0-4
21/08/22HDEK Vs Dob2-2
14/08/22HDEK Vs Rudar1-1
07/08/22ABeltinci Vs DEK3-0
30/07/22HDEK Vs Bistrica0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Krka
Krka
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWWW2.67
HomeWWW3.00
AwayDWW2.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %83%100%67%
AVG goals2.172.671.67
Over 1.5 %50%67%33%
Over 2.5 %33%33%33%
Over 3.5 %33%33%33%
Scored1.832.331.33
Conceded0.330.330.33
BTTS33%33%33%
Clean Sheet67%67%67%
Corners---
Cards---
Dekani
Dekani
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDWL0.83
HomeLDDL0.50
AwayLW1.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %17%0%50%
AVG goals2.502.003.50
Over 1.5 %67%50%100%
Over 2.5 %50%25%100%
Over 3.5 %33%25%50%
Scored1.170.752.00
Conceded1.331.251.50
BTTS33%50%0%
Clean Sheet17%0%50%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1RogaškaRogaška3068
70%
2.3
5223+29
2.5
67%
40%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.8
-
2AluminijAluminij3064
63%
2.1
5823+35
2.7
70%
50%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.90.8
-
3IlirijaIlirija3054
53%
1.8
5530+25
2.8
77%
50%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.81.0
-
4KrkaKrka3053
47%
1.8
4628+18
2.5
70%
47%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.50.9
-
5BeltinciBeltinci3044
40%
1.5
4745+2
3.1
90%
60%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.61.5
-
6NaftaNafta3041
37%
1.4
5043+7
3.1
83%
60%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.71.4
-
7PrimorjePrimorje3041
33%
1.4
4240+2
2.7
70%
43%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.41.3
-
8Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje3038
37%
1.3
3037-7
2.2
73%
23%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.01.2
-
9BistricaBistrica3037
30%
1.2
3940-1
2.6
80%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.3
-
10BiljeBilje3037
33%
1.2
4053-13
3.1
77%
63%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.31.8
-
11DekaniDekani3035
23%
1.2
2729-2
1.9
53%
27%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.91.0
-
12TriglavTriglav3035
33%
1.2
3352-19
2.8
80%
50%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.7
-
13RudarRudar3032
23%
1.1
4151-10
3.1
83%
57%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.41.7
-
14FužinarFužinar3031
27%
1.0
3956-17
3.2
80%
63%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.9
-
15KrškoKrško3024
20%
0.8
3659-23
3.2
80%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.22.0
-
16DobDob3021
13%
0.7
3763-26
3.3
87%
70%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.1
-
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →

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