Krško’s recent 0-0 stalemate against Dekani leaves them with a modest 3.0 average of goals scored at home, while conceding 2.0. Ilirija, on the other hand, has been prolific on the road, averaging 2.5 goals for and just 0.5 against in similar opposition. The model’s numbers point to a high-scoring affair, with an expected 3.2 goals and a most likely total of three. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 11.3% chance. The favored result is an away win, with probabilities of 27% for a home victory, 25% for a draw and 49% for Ilirija to come out on top. The model also suggests an Over 1.5 goal selection, with an 83.4% probability. All figures are presented in plain percentages, and every selection is listed with its exact probability.
Results analysis
Krško’s recent run of draws and a 0-0 stalemate at Dekani left the home side looking to rebound, while Ilirija, after a 1-2 loss to Slovan Ljubljana, entered the match eager to extend their winning streak. The model’s favourite, an away win, proved accurate as Ilirija secured a 0-4 triumph. The prediction of a 3-goal match fell short, with only four goals scored, but the Over 1.5 selection hit, reflecting the high 83.4% probability. The model’s 49% chance of an away win matched reality, while the 27% home win and 25% draw odds were irrelevant. Overall, the favoured outcome and the single suggested pick both materialised.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Krško win✗ Miss
26.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ilirija win✓ Hit
48.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Krško
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.54
1.92
1.83
2.00
1.29
1.86
vs Stronger (8)
1.50
1.88
1.60
2.00
1.33
1.67
vs Similar (5)
1.60
2.00
3.00
2.00
1.25
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
8% (-21pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilirija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ilirija
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.62
0.69
1.57
0.57
1.67
0.83
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
0.80
2.00
0.33
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (8)
1.88
0.62
1.25
0.75
2.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
54% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Krško) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.4%
Under 1.5
16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.2%
Under 2.5
38.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
38.9%
Under 3.5
61.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
62.7%
No
37.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.3%
1-2
9.5%
0-2
7.2%
2-1
6.8%
0-1
6.8%
2-2
6.3%
1-3
5.8%
0-0
5.3%
Krško goals ↓
Ilirija goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.3%
6.8%
7.2%
4.4%
2.0%
1
4.6%
11%
9.5%
5.8%
2.7%
2
3.7%
6.8%
6.3%
3.8%
1.8%
3
1.6%
3.0%
2.8%
1.7%
0.8%
4
0.5%
1.0%
0.9%
0.6%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Krško goals (down), columns = Ilirija goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rogaška
2.27
Aluminij
2.13
Ilirija
1.80
Krka
1.77
Beltinci
1.47
Primorje
1.37
Nafta
1.37
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.27
Bilje
1.23
Bistrica
1.23
Dekani
1.17
Triglav
1.17
Rudar
1.07
Fužinar
1.03
Krško
0.80
Dob
0.70
Krško is 1.00 points worse than Ilirija in terms of average points per game (0.80 vs 1.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Aluminij
1.93
Ilirija
1.83
Rogaška
1.73
Nafta
1.67
Beltinci
1.57
Krka
1.53
Primorje
1.40
Rudar
1.37
Bilje
1.33
Fužinar
1.30
Bistrica
1.30
Dob
1.23
Krško
1.20
Triglav
1.10
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.00
Dekani
0.90
Krško is 0.63 goals worse than Ilirija in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 1.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Rogaška
0.77
Aluminij
0.77
Krka
0.93
Dekani
0.97
Ilirija
1.00
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.23
Primorje
1.33
Bistrica
1.33
Nafta
1.43
Beltinci
1.50
Rudar
1.70
Triglav
1.73
Bilje
1.77
Fužinar
1.87
Krško
1.97
Dob
2.10
Krško is 0.97 goals worse than Ilirija in terms of goals conceded per game (1.97 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Krško
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.62
1.08
0.67
1.17
0.57
1.00
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
1.00
0.80
1.00
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (5)
0.40
1.20
0.00
2.00
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
15% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilirija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ilirija
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.62
0.31
0.71
0.14
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.20
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (8)
0.62
0.38
0.50
0.25
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
69% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Krško) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Krško over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krško over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krško over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Krško
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.92
0.85
1.17
0.83
0.71
0.86
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
0.88
0.80
1.00
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (5)
1.20
0.80
3.00
0.00
0.75
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
38% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilirija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ilirija
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.38
0.86
0.43
1.17
0.33
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.60
1.00
0.33
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (8)
1.25
0.25
0.75
0.50
1.75
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
69% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Krško) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Krško over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krško over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krško over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (24)
€4m
BRI (24)
€3m
NAF (18)
€2m
TRI (19)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
KRŠ (13)
€1m
Krško and Ilirija have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (9)
€2m
NAF (8)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
KRŠ (4)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
Krško and Ilirija have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (7)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
NAF (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
KRŠ (1)
€0m
Krško and Ilirija have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (10)
€2m
BRI (10)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
KRŠ (8)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
Krško and Ilirija have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →