La Fiorita are the clear favourites, with a 42% chance of victory, a 31% chance of a draw, and a 28% chance of a Juvenes / Dogana win. The model expects 2.3 goals on average, most likely a total of two, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14.3%. La Fiorita, playing at home against a weaker side, average 1.82 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Juvenes / Dogana, away against a stronger opponent, average 1.0 scored and 1.83 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (99.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.0%), Under 5.5 (96.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.7%), Away under 2.5 goals (91.6%), Under 4.5 (91.4%), and Home +2 handicap (89.1%). The match is expected to be low-scoring, with La Fiorita’s recent win against Tre Fiori hinting at a strong start, while Juvenes / Dogana’s recent defeat to Virtus suggests a cautious approach.
Results analysis
La Fiorita finished 0-0 against Juvenes / Dogana (Draw). Pythia had modelled a 42% home win, 31% draw and 28% away win. Picks that landed: Under 7.5 (100%), Under 6.5 (99%), Away under 3.5 goals (98%), Under 5.5 (97%), Home under 3.5 goals (96%), Away under 2.5 goals (92%), Under 4.5 (91%), Home +2 handicap (89%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
La Fiorita win✗ Miss
41.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
30.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana win✗ Miss
27.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
La Fiorita
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
0.93
1.69
1.06
2.14
0.79
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.11
1.44
1.40
1.20
0.75
1.75
vs Weaker (21)
2.24
0.71
1.82
1.00
2.70
0.40
Clean sheet %
40% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Juvenes / Dogana) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Juvenes / Dogana
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.33
1.33
1.27
1.40
1.40
vs Stronger (13)
1.08
1.54
1.14
1.29
1.00
1.83
vs Similar (13)
1.54
1.38
1.50
1.33
1.57
1.43
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (La Fiorita) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
68.6%
Under 1.5
31.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.8%
Under 2.5
59.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.4%
Under 3.5
79.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.8%
No
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
1-0
11.5%
0-0 ✓
11.2%
0-1
8.7%
2-1
8.5%
2-0
8.3%
1-2
6.6%
0-2
5.1%
La Fiorita goals ↓
Juvenes / Dogana goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
8.7%
5.1%
1.7%
0.4%
1
11%
14%
6.6%
2.3%
0.6%
2
8.3%
8.5%
4.3%
1.5%
0.4%
3
3.6%
3.7%
1.9%
0.6%
0.2%
4
1.2%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = La Fiorita goals (down), columns = Juvenes / Dogana goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tre Penne
3.00
Virtus
2.43
La Fiorita
1.75
Juvenes / Dogana
1.50
Tre Fiori
1.43
San Giovanni
1.25
Faetano
1.00
Folgore
1.00
Cosmos
0.50
Murata
0.50
Domagnano
0.50
Pennarossa
0.50
Cailungo
0.00
Fiorentino
0.00
Libertas
0.00
La Fiorita is 0.25 points better than Juvenes / Dogana in terms of average points per game (1.75 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tre Penne
2.67
Tre Fiori
1.57
Virtus
1.57
San Giovanni
1.00
La Fiorita
1.00
Cosmos
1.00
Faetano
0.75
Folgore
0.75
Juvenes / Dogana
0.75
Cailungo
0.50
Domagnano
0.50
Pennarossa
0.50
Murata
0.00
Fiorentino
0.00
Libertas
0.00
La Fiorita is 0.25 goals better than Juvenes / Dogana in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 0.75).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
La Fiorita
0.25
Virtus
0.43
Tre Penne
0.50
Murata
0.50
Tre Fiori
0.71
Folgore
1.00
Juvenes / Dogana
1.00
Domagnano
1.00
Pennarossa
1.00
Cosmos
1.50
Fiorentino
1.50
San Giovanni
1.75
Faetano
1.75
Libertas
2.50
Cailungo
5.00
La Fiorita is 0.75 goals better than Juvenes / Dogana in terms of goals conceded per game (0.25 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
La Fiorita or Draw✓ Hit
72.1%
Avg Implied -
42%
31%
28%
covers La Fiorita + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita or Juvenes / Dogana✗ Miss
69.5%
Avg Implied -
42%
31%
28%
covers La Fiorita + Juvenes / Dogana
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Juvenes / Dogana✓ Hit
58.4%
Avg Implied -
42%
31%
28%
covers Draw + Juvenes / Dogana
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
La Fiorita over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
72.7%
Under
27.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
37.2%
Under
62.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.2%
Under
85.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.3%
Under
95.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
63.9%
Under
36.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
27.1%
Under
72.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
8.4%
Under
91.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to La Fiorita, so a minus line means La Fiorita give that many goals of a start and Juvenes / Dogana receive them. At -1, La Fiorita must win by two or more to land; a one-goal La Fiorita win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (La Fiorita)Actual: Juvenes / Dogana
La Fiorita -2
6.9%
Draw -2
12.6%
Juvenes / Dogana +2
80.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (La Fiorita)Actual: Juvenes / Dogana
La Fiorita -1
19.5%
Draw -1
22.0%
Juvenes / Dogana +1
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (La Fiorita)Actual: La Fiorita
La Fiorita +1
72.1%
Draw +1
17.0%
Juvenes / Dogana -1
10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (La Fiorita)Actual: La Fiorita
La Fiorita +2
89.1%
Draw +2
7.8%
Juvenes / Dogana -2
3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
La Fiorita
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.30
0.56
0.44
0.79
0.14
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.44
0.56
0.80
0.60
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (21)
0.76
0.19
0.45
0.36
1.10
0.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Juvenes / Dogana) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Juvenes / Dogana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.53
0.60
0.47
0.67
0.60
vs Stronger (13)
0.38
0.62
0.43
0.43
0.33
0.83
vs Similar (13)
0.85
0.62
0.83
0.67
0.86
0.57
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (La Fiorita) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
La Fiorita over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
La Fiorita
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.63
1.12
0.62
1.36
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.67
0.89
0.60
0.60
0.75
1.25
vs Weaker (21)
1.48
0.52
1.36
0.64
1.60
0.40
Clean sheet %
53% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Juvenes / Dogana) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Juvenes / Dogana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.80
0.73
0.80
0.73
0.80
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
0.92
0.71
0.86
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.69
0.77
0.67
0.67
0.71
0.86
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (La Fiorita) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
La Fiorita over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (31)
€1m
VIR (33)
€1m
LF (33)
€1m
TP (26)
€1m
FOL (28)
€1m
DOM (27)
€1m
FIO (25)
€1m
COS (34)
€1m
J/D (27)
€1m
PEN (31)
€1m
LIB (34)
€1m
SG (27)
€1m
FAE (32)
€1m
CAI (28)
€0m
MUR (35)
€0m
La Fiorita and Juvenes / Dogana have a similar squad value (both €1m).
San-Marino: Campionato 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →