Defensive solidity will shape this low-scoring affair, with La Fiorita’s home form showing only 0.6 goals conceded on average while Murata, on the road, concedes 2.29 against stronger opposition. The model favours a home win, assigning a 56% chance to that outcome, a 29% probability of a draw and 15% for an away victory. The expected total of 2.2 goals points to a tight match, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 16.2% probability. La Fiorita’s 2.4 goals per game at home contrast sharply with Murata’s 0.57 away, underscoring the home advantage. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.5%), Under 6.5 (99.3%), Under 5.5 (97.7%), Away under 2.5 goals (97.0%), Home +2 handicap (95.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.6%) and Under 4.5 (93.3%). The match is poised for a defensive contest, with La Fiorita’s recent win hinting at a slight edge.
Results analysis
The upset came as La Fiorita, the pre-match favourite with a 56% chance of victory, fell short, losing 1-2 to Murata. The model’s call was wrong, yet many of its other selections proved accurate. The final score of 1-2 gave Murata an away win. The model had predicted a home win with 56% probability, but the result was the opposite. Among the suggested picks, Under 7.5 (99.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.5%), Under 6.5 (99.3%), Under 5.5 (97.7%), Away under 2.5 goals (97.0%), Home +2 handicap (95.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.6%) and Under 4.5 (93.3%) all hit. La Fiorita’s recent form, a win after a mixed run, was not enough to overcome Murata’s five-match losing streak.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
La Fiorita win✗ Miss
56.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Murata win✓ Hit
15.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
La Fiorita
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
0.80
2.00
0.73
2.00
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.89
1.22
1.20
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (21)
2.48
0.62
2.40
0.60
2.55
0.64
Clean sheet %
50% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Murata) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Murata
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.40
0.69
1.31
0.93
1.50
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
1.92
0.40
1.40
0.57
2.29
vs Similar (18)
1.00
1.06
0.82
1.27
1.29
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (La Fiorita) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
64.5%
Under 1.5
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
36.4%
Under 2.5
63.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
17.1%
Under 3.5
82.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
38.7%
No
61.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
16.2%
2-0
12.9%
0-0
12.8%
1-1
12.6%
2-1
8.5%
0-1
6.6%
3-0
6.4%
3-1
4.2%
La Fiorita goals ↓
Murata goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
6.6%
2.6%
0.6%
0.1%
1
16%
13%
3.8%
0.8%
0.1%
2
13%
8.5%
2.8%
0.6%
0.1%
3
6.4%
4.2%
1.4%
0.3%
0.1%
4
2.4%
1.6%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = La Fiorita goals (down), columns = Murata goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tre Penne
3.00
Virtus
2.43
La Fiorita
1.75
Juvenes / Dogana
1.50
Tre Fiori
1.43
San Giovanni
1.25
Faetano
1.00
Folgore
1.00
Cosmos
0.50
Murata
0.50
Domagnano
0.50
Pennarossa
0.50
Cailungo
0.00
Fiorentino
0.00
Libertas
0.00
La Fiorita is 1.25 points better than Murata in terms of average points per game (1.75 vs 0.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tre Penne
2.67
Tre Fiori
1.57
Virtus
1.57
San Giovanni
1.00
La Fiorita
1.00
Cosmos
1.00
Faetano
0.75
Folgore
0.75
Juvenes / Dogana
0.75
Cailungo
0.50
Domagnano
0.50
Pennarossa
0.50
Murata
0.00
Fiorentino
0.00
Libertas
0.00
La Fiorita is 1.00 goals better than Murata in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 0.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
La Fiorita
0.25
Virtus
0.43
Tre Penne
0.50
Murata
0.50
Tre Fiori
0.71
Folgore
1.00
Juvenes / Dogana
1.00
Domagnano
1.00
Pennarossa
1.00
Cosmos
1.50
Fiorentino
1.50
San Giovanni
1.75
Faetano
1.75
Libertas
2.50
Cailungo
5.00
La Fiorita is 0.25 goals better than Murata in terms of goals conceded per game (0.25 vs 0.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
La Fiorita or Draw✗ Miss
84.6%
Avg Implied -
56%
29%
15%
covers La Fiorita + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita or Murata✓ Hit
71.4%
Avg Implied -
56%
29%
15%
covers La Fiorita + Murata
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Murata✓ Hit
44.0%
Avg Implied -
56%
29%
15%
covers Draw + Murata
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
La Fiorita over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
77.4%
Under
22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
43.8%
Under
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
18.8%
Under
81.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.4%
Under
93.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
48.5%
Under
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
14.3%
Under
85.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to La Fiorita, so a minus line means La Fiorita give that many goals of a start and Murata receive them. At -1, La Fiorita must win by two or more to land; a one-goal La Fiorita win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (La Fiorita)Actual: Murata
La Fiorita -2
12.1%
Draw -2
17.7%
Murata +2
70.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (La Fiorita)Actual: Murata
La Fiorita -1
29.8%
Draw -1
26.2%
Murata +1
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (La Fiorita)Actual: Draw
La Fiorita +1
84.6%
Draw +1
11.0%
Murata -1
4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (La Fiorita)Actual: La Fiorita
La Fiorita +2
95.6%
Draw +2
3.5%
Murata -2
0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
La Fiorita
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.23
0.87
0.27
0.67
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.33
0.44
0.60
0.40
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (21)
0.95
0.14
1.00
0.20
0.91
0.09
Clean sheet %
83% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Murata) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Murata
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.43
0.38
0.44
0.14
0.43
vs Stronger (12)
0.00
0.58
0.00
0.20
0.00
0.86
vs Similar (18)
0.44
0.33
0.55
0.55
0.29
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
73% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (La Fiorita) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
La Fiorita over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
La Fiorita
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.57
1.13
0.47
1.33
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.56
0.78
0.60
0.60
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (21)
1.52
0.48
1.40
0.40
1.64
0.55
Clean sheet %
60% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Murata) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Murata
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.97
0.31
0.88
0.79
1.07
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
1.33
0.40
1.20
0.57
1.43
vs Similar (18)
0.56
0.72
0.27
0.73
1.00
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (La Fiorita) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
La Fiorita over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Murata over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (31)
€1m
VIR (33)
€1m
LF (33)
€1m
TP (26)
€1m
FOL (28)
€1m
DOM (27)
€1m
FIO (25)
€1m
COS (34)
€1m
J/D (27)
€1m
PEN (31)
€1m
LIB (34)
€1m
SG (27)
€1m
FAE (32)
€1m
CAI (28)
€0m
MUR (35)
€0m
La Fiorita's squad is €1m more valuable than Murata's (€1m vs €0m).
San-Marino: Campionato 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Virtus
Tre Penne
Tre Fiori
Folgore
Domagnano
Fiorentino
Cosmos
Juvenes / Dogana
Libertas
Pennarossa
San Giovanni
Faetano
San Marino Academy
Cailungo