La Fiorita’s strong home form and the San Marino Academy’s struggle on the road make a home win the clear favourite, a conclusion the model reaches with a 73 % probability. The expected total goals is 3.0, yet the most likely total is 2 goals at 23 %. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 for La Fiorita, with a 13.2 % chance. La Fiorita averages 2.18 goals scored and 0.73 conceded at home against weaker opposition, while San Marino Academy averages only 0.09 goals scored and 1.64 conceded away against stronger teams. The model’s selections include Away under 3.5 goals (99.4 %), Over 19.5 fouls (99.1 %), Under 7.5 (98.8 %), Home +2 handicap (97.5 %), Over 21.5 fouls (97.4 %), Under 6.5 (96.7 %), Away under 2.5 goals (96.7 %) and Over 23.5 fouls (93.9 %). Home win probability is 73 %, draw 18 %, and away win 9 %.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
La Fiorita win
72.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
18.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
San Marino Academy win
8.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
La Fiorita
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
0.83
1.80
0.87
1.40
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.18
0.91
1.75
1.25
0.86
0.71
vs Weaker (19)
1.84
0.79
1.82
0.73
1.88
0.88
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (San Marino Academy) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
San Marino Academy
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
2.03
0.75
2.31
0.71
1.71
vs Stronger (21)
0.29
2.19
0.55
2.64
0.00
1.70
vs Similar (9)
1.78
1.67
1.20
1.60
2.50
1.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-22pp vs league)
This opponent (La Fiorita) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.8%
Under 1.5
19.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
57.6%
Under 2.5
42.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
35.2%
Under 3.5
64.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
45.8%
No
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
13.3%
1-0
10.7%
3-0
10.2%
2-1
9.2%
1-1
8.8%
3-1
7.1%
4-0
5.9%
0-0
5.8%
La Fiorita goals ↓
San Marino Academy goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.8%
2.7%
1.2%
0.3%
0.0%
1
11%
8.8%
2.8%
0.6%
0.1%
2
13%
9.2%
3.2%
0.7%
0.1%
3
10%
7.1%
2.4%
0.6%
0.1%
4
5.9%
4.1%
1.4%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = La Fiorita goals (down), columns = San Marino Academy goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tre Fiori
2.43
Virtus
2.34
Tre Penne
2.17
La Fiorita
1.97
Folgore
1.88
Domagnano
1.57
Fiorentino
1.53
Cosmos
1.42
Juvenes / Dogana
1.18
Libertas
1.16
San Giovanni
1.03
Pennarossa
1.03
Faetano
0.73
San Marino Academy
0.53
Cailungo
0.37
Murata
0.23
La Fiorita is 1.44 points better than San Marino Academy in terms of average points per game (1.97 vs 0.53).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Virtus
2.37
Folgore
2.16
Tre Penne
2.14
Tre Fiori
2.10
La Fiorita
2.00
Domagnano
1.89
Fiorentino
1.25
Juvenes / Dogana
1.12
Libertas
1.06
Cosmos
1.00
Pennarossa
0.94
San Giovanni
0.80
San Marino Academy
0.77
Cailungo
0.77
Faetano
0.73
Murata
0.67
La Fiorita is 1.23 goals better than San Marino Academy in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 0.77).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Tre Fiori
0.43
Tre Penne
0.60
Virtus
0.69
Cosmos
0.70
La Fiorita
0.89
Folgore
1.12
Juvenes / Dogana
1.24
Domagnano
1.26
Fiorentino
1.41
San Giovanni
1.43
Pennarossa
1.81
Faetano
1.83
San Marino Academy
2.00
Libertas
2.06
Cailungo
2.37
Murata
2.77
La Fiorita is 1.11 goals better than San Marino Academy in terms of goals conceded per game (0.89 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Tre Fiori
64%
Tre Penne
60%
San Giovanni
53%
San Marino Academy
51%
Libertas
49%
Juvenes / Dogana
47%
Fiorentino
40%
Cosmos
36%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
La Fiorita
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
San Marino Academy
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
La Fiorita
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (32)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (San Marino Academy) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
San Marino Academy
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
12.0
-
12.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
-
-
-
vs Stronger (33)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
12.0
-
12.0
0.2
0.0
0.4
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
100%
-
100%
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
0%
-
0%
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (La Fiorita) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Libertas
12.0
San Marino Academy
12.0
Fiorentino
10.0
Cosmos
8.7
Tre Penne
7.8
La Fiorita
7.8
Tre Fiori
7.7
Folgore
5.0
Cailungo
5.0
San Giovanni
4.0
Juvenes / Dogana
4.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tre Fiori
5.3
San Giovanni
5.0
Juvenes / Dogana
5.0
Cosmos
4.7
La Fiorita
4.5
Fiorentino
4.0
Tre Penne
3.6
Libertas
3.0
San Marino Academy
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Fiorentino
34.0
San Giovanni
32.0
Juvenes / Dogana
32.0
Cosmos
30.0
Tre Penne
28.5
Tre Fiori
28.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
24.6%
Under 9.5
75.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
60.9%
Under 3.5
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
97.4%
Under 21.5
2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
La Fiorita or Draw
91.2%
Avg Implied -
73%
18%
9%
covers La Fiorita + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita or San Marino Academy
81.6%
Avg Implied -
73%
18%
9%
covers La Fiorita + San Marino Academy
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or San Marino Academy
27.2%
Avg Implied -
73%
18%
9%
covers Draw + San Marino Academy
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
La Fiorita over/under 0.5
Over
90.0%
Under
10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 1.5
Over
67.0%
Under
33.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 2.5
Over
40.4%
Under
59.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 3.5
Over
20.1%
Under
79.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Marino Academy over/under 0.5
Over
50.0%
Under
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Marino Academy over/under 1.5
Over
15.4%
Under
84.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Marino Academy over/under 2.5
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Marino Academy over/under 3.5
Over
0.6%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to La Fiorita, so a minus line means La Fiorita give that many goals of a start and San Marino Academy receive them. At -1, La Fiorita must win by two or more to land; a one-goal La Fiorita win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (La Fiorita)
La Fiorita -2
28.3%
Draw -2
21.9%
San Marino Academy +2
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (La Fiorita)
La Fiorita -1
50.1%
Draw -1
22.7%
San Marino Academy +1
27.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (La Fiorita)
La Fiorita +1
91.2%
Draw +1
6.3%
San Marino Academy -1
2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (La Fiorita)
La Fiorita +2
97.5%
Draw +2
2.0%
San Marino Academy -2
0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
La Fiorita
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.43
0.80
0.47
0.67
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.82
0.55
1.50
1.00
0.43
0.29
vs Weaker (19)
0.68
0.37
0.55
0.27
0.88
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (San Marino Academy) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
San Marino Academy
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.97
0.25
1.19
0.43
0.71
vs Stronger (21)
0.14
1.05
0.27
1.45
0.00
0.60
vs Similar (9)
0.78
0.78
0.20
0.60
1.50
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (La Fiorita) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.2%
Under 0.5
20.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
48.5%
Under 1.5
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.3%
Under 2.5
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
La Fiorita over/under 0.5 HT
Over
76.5%
Under
23.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 1.5 HT
Over
42.0%
Under
58.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 2.5 HT
Over
12.1%
Under
87.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Marino Academy over/under 0.5 HT
Over
25.1%
Under
74.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Marino Academy over/under 1.5 HT
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Marino Academy over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
La Fiorita
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.40
1.00
0.40
0.73
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.36
0.36
0.25
0.25
0.43
0.43
vs Weaker (19)
1.16
0.42
1.27
0.45
1.00
0.38
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (San Marino Academy) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
San Marino Academy
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
1.07
0.50
1.12
0.29
1.00
vs Stronger (21)
0.14
1.14
0.27
1.18
0.00
1.10
vs Similar (9)
1.00
0.89
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (La Fiorita) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
87.4%
Under 0.5
12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
62.8%
Under 1.5
37.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
26.0%
Under 2.5
74.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
La Fiorita over/under 0.5 2H
Over
80.8%
Under
19.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 1.5 2H
Over
47.6%
Under
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 2.5 2H
Over
14.8%
Under
85.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Marino Academy over/under 0.5 2H
Over
32.0%
Under
68.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Marino Academy over/under 1.5 2H
Over
5.7%
Under
94.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Marino Academy over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 25.5 fouls
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 2H goals
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
79.3%
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-
-
-
-
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Over 0.5 HT goals
79.2%
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-
-
-
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Home over 0.5 HT goals
76.5%
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-
-
-
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Under 9.5 corners
75.4%
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-
-
-
-
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Under 5.5 cards
75.0%
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-
-
-
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Away under 0.5 HT goals
74.9%
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-
-
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Under 2.5 2H goals
74.0%
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-
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Home win
72.8%
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No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (20)
€1m
LF (19)
€1m
FOL (19)
€1m
VIR (15)
€1m
DOM (19)
€1m
TP (14)
€1m
J/D (20)
€1m
COS (12)
€0m
CAI (18)
€0m
PEN (11)
€0m
SG (11)
€0m
FIO (9)
€0m
SMA (13)
€0m
LIB (9)
€0m
FAE (10)
€0m
MUR (7)
€0m
La Fiorita and San Marino Academy have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (5)
€1m
LF (5)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
VIR (5)
€0m
J/D (7)
€0m
DOM (6)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (3)
€0m
TP (5)
€0m
CAI (5)
€0m
COS (2)
€0m
FIO (2)
€0m
SMA (5)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
MUR (1)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
La Fiorita and San Marino Academy have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LF (7)
€0m
TP (6)
€0m
TF (6)
€0m
VIR (4)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
DOM (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
J/D (5)
€0m
FIO (3)
€0m
LIB (4)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
COS (4)
€0m
CAI (4)
€0m
MUR (6)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
La Fiorita and San Marino Academy have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (9)
€1m
FOL (9)
€0m
LF (7)
€0m
DOM (8)
€0m
J/D (8)
€0m
VIR (6)
€0m
COS (6)
€0m
CAI (9)
€0m
FAE (6)
€0m
LIB (5)
€0m
FIO (4)
€0m
TP (3)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
La Fiorita and San Marino Academy have a similar defence value (both €0m).
San-Marino: Campionato 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Folgore
Juvenes / Dogana
Tre Fiori
Fiorentino
Tre Penne
Domagnano
Libertas
Cosmos
Virtus
San Giovanni
Cailungo
Pennarossa
Faetano
Murata