This opponent (Virtus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Virtus
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
0.77
1.86
0.79
2.31
0.75
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
4.00
-
-
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (10)
1.40
1.10
1.00
1.50
1.67
0.83
vs Weaker (19)
2.58
0.42
2.20
0.50
3.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (La Fiorita) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
72.7%
Under 1.5
27.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
45.8%
Under 2.5
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.4%
Under 3.5
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.9%
No
49.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
1-0
10.8%
0-0 â
9.4%
2-1
9.1%
2-0
8.8%
0-1
7.2%
1-2
6.4%
2-2
4.7%
La Fiorita goals ↓
Virtus goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.4%
7.2%
4.4%
1.5%
0.4%
1
11%
14%
6.4%
2.2%
0.6%
2
8.8%
9.1%
4.7%
1.6%
0.4%
3
4.3%
4.5%
2.3%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.6%
1.7%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = La Fiorita goals (down), columns = Virtus goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Tre Penne
2.50
Virtus
2.14
La Fiorita
2.00
Folgore
1.75
Juvenes / Dogana
1.50
Tre Fiori
1.43
San Giovanni
1.25
Faetano
1.00
Pennarossa
0.50
Murata
0.50
Cosmos
0.50
Domagnano
0.50
Cailungo
0.00
Fiorentino
0.00
Libertas
0.00
La Fiorita is 0.14 points worse than Virtus in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 2.14).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tre Penne
2.33
Tre Fiori
1.57
Virtus
1.43
La Fiorita
1.00
San Giovanni
1.00
Cosmos
1.00
Faetano
0.75
Folgore
0.75
Juvenes / Dogana
0.75
Cailungo
0.50
Pennarossa
0.50
Domagnano
0.50
Murata
0.00
Fiorentino
0.00
Libertas
0.00
La Fiorita is 0.43 goals worse than Virtus in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.43).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
La Fiorita
0.00
Virtus
0.43
Tre Penne
0.50
Murata
0.50
Folgore
0.50
Tre Fiori
0.71
Pennarossa
1.00
Domagnano
1.00
Juvenes / Dogana
1.00
Cosmos
1.50
Fiorentino
1.50
San Giovanni
1.75
Faetano
1.75
Libertas
2.50
Cailungo
5.00
La Fiorita is 0.43 goals better than Virtus in terms of goals conceded per game (0.00 vs 0.43).
âąïļ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
La Fiorita or Drawâ Hit
74.7%
Avg Implied -
46%
29%
25%
covers La Fiorita + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita or Virtusâ Miss
71.3%
Avg Implied -
46%
29%
25%
covers La Fiorita + Virtus
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Virtusâ Hit
54.0%
Avg Implied -
46%
29%
25%
covers Draw + Virtus
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
La Fiorita over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
77.1%
Under
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
43.3%
Under
56.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
18.4%
Under
81.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.2%
Under
93.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virtus over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
64.4%
Under
35.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virtus over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
27.7%
Under
72.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virtus over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
8.7%
Under
91.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virtus over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âïļ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to La Fiorita, so a minus line means La Fiorita give that many goals of a start and Virtus receive them. At -1, La Fiorita must win by two or more to land; a one-goal La Fiorita win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (La Fiorita)Actual: Virtus
La Fiorita -2
9.2%
Draw -2
14.3%
Virtus +2
76.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (La Fiorita)Actual: Virtus
La Fiorita -1
23.5%
Draw -1
22.6%
Virtus +1
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (La Fiorita)Actual: La Fiorita
La Fiorita +1
74.7%
Draw +1
15.5%
Virtus -1
9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (La Fiorita)Actual: La Fiorita
La Fiorita +2
90.2%
Draw +2
7.0%
Virtus -2
2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
La Fiorita
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.53
0.86
0.64
1.25
0.44
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
3.50
0.00
3.00
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (11)
0.82
0.36
0.50
0.33
1.20
0.40
vs Weaker (17)
1.35
0.29
1.29
0.57
1.40
0.10
Clean sheet %
67% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Virtus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Virtus
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.30
0.93
0.36
1.19
0.25
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (10)
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.17
vs Weaker (19)
1.42
0.05
1.10
0.10
1.78
0.00
Clean sheet %
80% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (La Fiorita) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
La Fiorita over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virtus over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virtus over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virtus over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
La Fiorita
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.30
1.50
0.21
0.75
0.38
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (11)
0.45
0.18
0.50
0.17
0.40
0.20
vs Weaker (17)
1.59
0.24
2.57
0.14
0.90
0.30
Clean sheet %
73% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Virtus) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Virtus
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.47
0.93
0.43
1.12
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.90
0.60
0.50
0.50
1.17
0.67
vs Weaker (19)
1.16
0.37
1.10
0.40
1.22
0.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (La Fiorita) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
La Fiorita over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
La Fiorita over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virtus over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virtus over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Virtus over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 6.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 5.5
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home +2 handicap
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 4.5
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Away +2 handicap
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 3.5
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home or Draw
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home +1 handicap
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 1.5
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Away under 1.5 goals
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home or Away
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (20)
€1m
LF (19)
€1m
FOL (19)
€1m
VIR (15)
€1m
DOM (19)
€1m
TP (14)
€1m
J/D (20)
€1m
COS (12)
€0m
CAI (18)
€0m
PEN (11)
€0m
SG (11)
€0m
FIO (9)
€0m
LIB (9)
€0m
FAE (10)
€0m
MUR (7)
€0m
La Fiorita and Virtus have a similar squad value (both €1m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (5)
€1m
LF (5)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
VIR (5)
€0m
J/D (7)
€0m
DOM (6)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (3)
€0m
TP (5)
€0m
CAI (5)
€0m
COS (2)
€0m
FIO (2)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
MUR (1)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
La Fiorita and Virtus have a similar attack value (both €0m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LF (7)
€0m
TP (6)
€0m
TF (6)
€0m
VIR (4)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
DOM (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
J/D (5)
€0m
FIO (3)
€0m
LIB (4)
€0m
COS (4)
€0m
CAI (4)
€0m
MUR (6)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
La Fiorita and Virtus have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (9)
€1m
FOL (9)
€0m
LF (7)
€0m
DOM (8)
€0m
J/D (8)
€0m
VIR (6)
€0m
COS (6)
€0m
CAI (9)
€0m
FAE (6)
€0m
LIB (5)
€0m
FIO (4)
€0m
TP (3)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
La Fiorita and Virtus have a similar defence value (both €0m).
San-Marino: Campionato 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Tre Fiori
Cosmos
San Giovanni
Folgore
Tre Penne
Fiorentino
Murata
Faetano
Juvenes / Dogana
Domagnano
Libertas
Cailungo
Pennarossa
San Marino Academy