Laagri’s recent 2-game winning streak and a 2-1 victory over Nõmme United set the tone for a high-scoring encounter, with the model predicting a home win and an expected 3.9 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 for Laagri, a 8.7% chance. Laagri averages two goals scored and one conceded at home against similar opposition, while Nõmme United, playing away, averages 3.44 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. The match probabilities are 55% for a home win, 21% for a draw, and 24% for an away win. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 goals at 95.5%, Away under 3.5 goals at 92.9%, Over 1.5 at 90.7%, Home over 0.5 goals at 90.5%, Under 6.5 at 90.1%, Home +2 handicap at 88.8%, Under 5.5 at 80.2%, and Away under 2.5 goals at 79.9%. These selections reflect the model’s confidence in a decisive home victory and a robust attacking display.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Laagri win
58.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
20.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United win
21.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Laagri
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.77
1.47
3.67
1.22
1.42
1.83
vs Stronger (13)
1.54
1.85
2.11
1.67
0.25
2.25
vs Similar (16)
2.31
1.25
2.62
0.88
2.00
1.62
vs Weaker (1)
26.00
0.00
26.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.4
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
3.03
1.33
3.60
1.13
2.47
1.53
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.50
vs Similar (22)
2.95
1.32
2.92
1.42
3.00
1.20
vs Weaker (3)
7.00
0.33
9.00
0.00
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (20%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
90.9%
Under 1.5
9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
74.8%
Under 2.5
25.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
54.9%
Under 3.5
45.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
70.9%
No
29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
8.8%
1-1
7.9%
3-1
7.2%
2-2
6.4%
2-0
6.0%
3-2
5.2%
1-2
5.2%
3-0
4.9%
Laagri goals ↓
Nõmme United goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.7%
2.2%
2.1%
1.0%
0.4%
1
4.2%
7.9%
5.2%
2.5%
0.9%
2
6.0%
8.8%
6.4%
3.1%
1.1%
3
4.9%
7.2%
5.2%
2.6%
0.9%
4
3.0%
4.4%
3.2%
1.6%
0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Laagri goals (down), columns = Nõmme United goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.29
Paide
2.00
Tammeka
1.88
Kalju Nomme
1.75
Flora Tallinn
1.67
Laagri
1.50
Vaprus
1.00
Kuressaare
0.89
Trans Narva
0.88
Nõmme United
0.75
Laagri is 0.75 points better than Nõmme United in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 0.75).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Levadia Tallinn
2.71
Paide
2.00
Kalju Nomme
2.00
Laagri
1.88
Flora Tallinn
1.78
Vaprus
1.62
Tammeka
1.62
Nõmme United
1.12
Kuressaare
1.11
Trans Narva
0.88
Laagri is 0.75 goals better than Nõmme United in terms of goals scored per game (1.88 vs 1.12).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kalju Nomme
1.00
FC Levadia Tallinn
1.00
Laagri
1.38
Paide
1.43
Flora Tallinn
1.56
Kuressaare
1.67
Vaprus
1.88
Tammeka
1.88
Trans Narva
2.12
Nõmme United
2.50
Laagri is 1.12 goals better than Nõmme United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.38 vs 2.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Laagri or Draw
78.8%
Avg Implied -
59%
20%
21%
covers Laagri + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Laagri or Nõmme United
79.8%
Avg Implied -
59%
20%
21%
covers Laagri + Nõmme United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Nõmme United
41.4%
Avg Implied -
59%
20%
21%
covers Draw + Nõmme United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Laagri over/under 0.5
Over
91.4%
Under
8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 1.5
Over
70.2%
Under
29.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 2.5
Over
44.3%
Under
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 3.5
Over
23.2%
Under
76.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 0.5
Over
76.8%
Under
23.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 1.5
Over
42.9%
Under
57.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 2.5
Over
18.1%
Under
81.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 3.5
Over
6.1%
Under
93.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Laagri, so a minus line means Laagri give that many goals of a start and Nõmme United receive them. At -1, Laagri must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Laagri win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Laagri)
Laagri -2
21.2%
Draw -2
17.3%
Nõmme United +2
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Laagri)
Laagri -1
38.5%
Draw -1
20.1%
Nõmme United +1
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Laagri)
Laagri +1
78.8%
Draw +1
11.7%
Nõmme United -1
9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Laagri)
Laagri +2
90.5%
Draw +2
6.1%
Nõmme United -2
3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Laagri
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.73
1.83
0.50
0.75
1.08
vs Stronger (13)
0.85
0.92
1.22
0.78
0.00
1.25
vs Similar (16)
1.19
0.62
1.25
0.25
1.12
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
12.00
0.00
12.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
0.60
1.87
0.73
1.33
0.47
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.80
0.00
0.00
0.75
1.00
vs Similar (22)
1.55
0.64
1.50
0.92
1.60
0.30
vs Weaker (3)
3.67
0.00
5.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Laagri over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Laagri
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.73
1.83
0.72
0.67
0.75
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
0.92
0.89
0.89
0.25
1.00
vs Similar (16)
1.12
0.62
1.38
0.62
0.88
0.62
vs Weaker (1)
14.00
0.00
14.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Nõmme United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nõmme United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
0.73
1.73
0.40
1.13
1.07
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.20
1.00
0.00
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (22)
1.41
0.68
1.42
0.50
1.40
0.90
vs Weaker (3)
3.33
0.33
4.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Laagri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Laagri over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laagri over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nõmme United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS Yes
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (24)
€4m
FLT (22)
€4m
PAI (28)
€4m
FT (22)
€3m
TN (26)
€2m
VAP (24)
€2m
LAA (25)
€2m
TAM (24)
€2m
NU (26)
€2m
KUR (21)
€1m
Laagri and Nõmme United have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FLT (10)
€2m
PAI (12)
€2m
KN (9)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
VAP (12)
€1m
TN (9)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
LAA (7)
€1m
NU (8)
€1m
KUR (7)
€1m
Laagri and Nõmme United have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (3)
€1m
PAI (5)
€1m
FLT (3)
€1m
FT (5)
€1m
TN (7)
€1m
LAA (6)
€1m
TAM (6)
€0m
KUR (5)
€0m
NU (7)
€0m
VAP (2)
€0m
Laagri and Nõmme United have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KN (12)
€2m
FLT (9)
€2m
PAI (11)
€2m
FT (9)
€1m
VAP (10)
€1m
TN (10)
€1m
NU (11)
€1m
LAA (12)
€1m
TAM (9)
€1m
KUR (9)
€1m
Laagri and Nõmme United have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Estonia: Meistriliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Meistriliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Levadia Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
Tammeka
Kalju Nomme
Paide
Vaprus
Kuressaare
Trans Narva