Laci’s recent unbeaten run of five games, capped by a 2-1 win over Partizani, keeps the contest finely balanced, yet the model still favours a home victory. The predicted probabilities are 41% for a Laci win, 28% for a draw and 31% for a Partizani win. The expected total of 2.7 goals points to a modestly active match, with the most likely total of two goals occurring 26% of the time. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.4% chance. Home side Laci averages 1.88 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against similar opponents, while Partizani, playing away, averages 1.13 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Under 6.5 (98.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.4%), Under 5.5 (94.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.9%), Away under 2.5 goals (87.4%), Home +2 handicap (86.7%), and Under 4.5 (86.5%). Each pick is listed with its exact probability, reflecting the tight nature of this Superliga encounter.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Laci win
41.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Partizani win
30.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Laci
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
0.70
2.00
0.88
1.71
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.64
0.64
1.88
1.00
1.33
0.17
vs Weaker (16)
2.06
0.75
2.12
0.75
2.00
0.75
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Partizani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Partizani
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.30
1.20
1.27
1.13
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.17
1.30
1.20
1.27
1.13
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Laci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.1%
Under 1.5
23.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
50.2%
Under 2.5
49.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
28.2%
Under 3.5
71.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
55.4%
No
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
2-1
8.9%
1-0
8.8%
0-0
8.0%
1-2
7.4%
2-0
7.4%
0-1
7.1%
2-2
5.4%
Laci goals ↓
Partizani goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.0%
7.1%
5.0%
2.0%
0.6%
1
8.8%
13%
7.4%
3.0%
0.9%
2
7.4%
8.9%
5.4%
2.2%
0.7%
3
3.6%
4.4%
2.7%
1.1%
0.3%
4
1.3%
1.6%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Laci goals (down), columns = Partizani goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
AF Elbasani
1.74
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.69
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.62
Partizani
1.33
Dinamo Tirana
1.33
Tirana
1.22
Teuta Durrës
1.22
Vora
1.17
Skenderbeu Korce
1.17
Laci
1.09
Laci is 0.24 points worse than Partizani in terms of average points per game (1.09 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
AF Elbasani
1.36
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.28
Dinamo Tirana
1.15
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.13
Vora
1.08
Partizani
1.06
Tirana
1.00
Skenderbeu Korce
0.91
Teuta Durrës
0.89
Laci
0.85
Laci is 0.20 goals worse than Partizani in terms of goals scored per game (0.85 vs 1.06).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vllaznia Shkodër
0.85
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
0.90
Dinamo Tirana
0.97
Teuta Durrës
1.00
AF Elbasani
1.08
Vora
1.11
Skenderbeu Korce
1.21
Tirana
1.28
Laci
1.29
Partizani
1.33
Laci is 0.04 goals better than Partizani in terms of goals conceded per game (1.29 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Laci or Draw
69.9%
Avg Implied -
42%
28%
30%
covers Laci + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Laci or Partizani
71.9%
Avg Implied -
42%
28%
30%
covers Laci + Partizani
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Partizani
58.3%
Avg Implied -
42%
28%
30%
covers Draw + Partizani
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Laci over/under 0.5
Over
77.0%
Under
23.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 1.5
Over
43.1%
Under
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 2.5
Over
18.3%
Under
81.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 3.5
Over
6.2%
Under
93.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 0.5
Over
70.4%
Under
29.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 1.5
Over
34.3%
Under
65.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 2.5
Over
12.4%
Under
87.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 3.5
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Laci, so a minus line means Laci give that many goals of a start and Partizani receive them. At -1, Laci must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Laci win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Laci)
Laci -2
8.1%
Draw -2
12.8%
Partizani +2
79.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Laci)
Laci -1
20.9%
Draw -1
20.8%
Partizani +1
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Laci)
Laci +1
69.9%
Draw +1
17.1%
Partizani -1
13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Laci)
Laci +2
86.9%
Draw +2
8.8%
Partizani -2
4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Laci
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.23
0.94
0.25
0.64
0.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.86
0.07
1.12
0.12
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (16)
0.75
0.38
0.75
0.38
0.75
0.38
Clean sheet %
80% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Partizani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Partizani
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
0.87
0.33
0.40
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.63
0.50
0.87
0.33
0.40
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Laci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Laci over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Laci
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.47
1.06
0.62
1.07
0.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.79
0.57
0.75
0.88
0.83
0.17
vs Weaker (16)
1.31
0.38
1.38
0.38
1.25
0.38
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Partizani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Partizani
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.80
0.33
0.93
0.73
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.53
0.80
0.33
0.93
0.73
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Laci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Laci over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partizani over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (24)
€7m
DT (27)
€7m
TD (22)
€6m
PAR (29)
€5m
AE (25)
€5m
TIR (20)
€5m
VS (23)
€4m
SK (27)
€4m
VOR (25)
€4m
LAC (22)
€3m
Laci's squad is €2m less valuable than Partizani's (€3m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
PAR (13)
€2m
TD (9)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
TIR (7)
€2m
ER (6)
€2m
VOR (10)
€2m
SK (9)
€2m
LAC (6)
€1m
VS (6)
€1m
Laci's attack is €1m less valuable than Partizani's (€1m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (5)
€2m
ER (5)
€1m
VS (7)
€1m
TIR (5)
€1m
AE (5)
€1m
LAC (6)
€1m
TD (4)
€1m
PAR (5)
€1m
SK (6)
€1m
VOR (4)
€1m
Laci and Partizani have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (13)
€3m
TD (9)
€3m
VS (10)
€3m
TIR (8)
€2m
DT (11)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
PAR (11)
€2m
SK (12)
€2m
LAC (10)
€1m
VOR (11)
€1m
Laci and Partizani have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Albania: Superliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: Superliga stats & trends →