Laci’s defensive solidity is the headline, having conceded just 0.91 goals per game at home against similar opposition, while Teuta Durrës has been porous on the road, allowing 1.06 goals per match. The model favours a Home win, with a 42 % chance, a Draw at 32 %, and an Away win at 26 %. The expected total of 2.1 goals points to a tight affair, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 14.5 % probability. Laci’s average of 2.09 goals scored at home contrasts sharply with Teuta’s 0.75 away, underscoring the home advantage. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.9 %), Under 6.5 (99.4 %), Away under 3.5 goals (98.7 %), Under 5.5 (98.0 %), Home under 3.5 goals (96.6 %), Away under 2.5 goals (94.0 %), Under 4.5 (94.0 %), and Home +2 handicap (90.9 %). The model’s selection highlights a low-scoring, defensive contest with Laci the clear favourite.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Laci win
41.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
32.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës win
25.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Laci
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
0.70
2.00
0.88
1.71
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.64
0.64
1.88
1.00
1.33
0.17
vs Weaker (16)
2.06
0.75
2.12
0.75
2.00
0.75
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Teuta Durrës) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Teuta Durrës
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.10
1.13
1.13
0.80
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.97
1.10
1.13
1.13
0.80
1.07
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Laci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
62.7%
Under 1.5
37.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
34.4%
Under 2.5
65.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
15.7%
Under 3.5
84.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
42.2%
No
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0
13.9%
1-0
13.7%
0-1
9.7%
2-0
9.0%
2-1
7.9%
1-2
5.8%
0-2
4.9%
Laci goals ↓
Teuta Durrës goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
9.7%
4.9%
1.4%
0.3%
1
14%
15%
5.8%
1.7%
0.4%
2
9.0%
7.9%
3.5%
1.0%
0.2%
3
3.6%
3.1%
1.4%
0.4%
0.1%
4
1.1%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Laci goals (down), columns = Teuta Durrës goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
AF Elbasani
1.74
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.69
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.62
Partizani
1.33
Dinamo Tirana
1.33
Tirana
1.22
Teuta Durrës
1.22
Vora
1.17
Skenderbeu Korce
1.17
Laci
1.09
Laci is 0.12 points worse than Teuta Durrës in terms of average points per game (1.09 vs 1.22).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
AF Elbasani
1.36
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.28
Dinamo Tirana
1.15
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.13
Vora
1.08
Partizani
1.06
Tirana
1.00
Skenderbeu Korce
0.91
Teuta Durrës
0.89
Laci
0.85
Laci is 0.04 goals worse than Teuta Durrës in terms of goals scored per game (0.85 vs 0.89).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vllaznia Shkodër
0.85
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
0.90
Dinamo Tirana
0.97
Teuta Durrës
1.00
AF Elbasani
1.08
Vora
1.11
Skenderbeu Korce
1.21
Tirana
1.28
Laci
1.29
Partizani
1.33
Laci is 0.29 goals worse than Teuta Durrës in terms of goals conceded per game (1.29 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Laci or Draw
74.2%
Avg Implied -
42%
32%
26%
covers Laci + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Laci or Teuta Durrës
67.7%
Avg Implied -
42%
32%
26%
covers Laci + Teuta Durrës
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Teuta Durrës
58.1%
Avg Implied -
42%
32%
26%
covers Draw + Teuta Durrës
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Laci over/under 0.5
Over
69.8%
Under
30.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 1.5
Over
33.6%
Under
66.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 2.5
Over
12.0%
Under
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 3.5
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës over/under 0.5
Over
58.6%
Under
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës over/under 1.5
Over
22.0%
Under
78.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës over/under 2.5
Over
6.0%
Under
94.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës over/under 3.5
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Laci, so a minus line means Laci give that many goals of a start and Teuta Durrës receive them. At -1, Laci must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Laci win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Laci)
Laci -2
6.3%
Draw -2
12.6%
Teuta Durrës +2
81.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Laci)
Laci -1
18.9%
Draw -1
23.1%
Teuta Durrës +1
58.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Laci)
Laci +1
74.2%
Draw +1
16.7%
Teuta Durrës -1
9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Laci)
Laci +2
90.9%
Draw +2
6.8%
Teuta Durrës -2
2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Laci
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.23
0.94
0.25
0.64
0.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.86
0.07
1.12
0.12
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (16)
0.75
0.38
0.75
0.38
0.75
0.38
Clean sheet %
80% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Teuta Durrës) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Teuta Durrës
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.47
0.47
0.47
0.20
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.33
0.47
0.47
0.47
0.20
0.47
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Laci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
64.6%
Under 0.5
35.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
26.8%
Under 1.5
73.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
8.8%
Under 2.5
91.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Laci over/under 0.5 HT
Over
43.8%
Under
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.1%
Under
88.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës over/under 0.5 HT
Over
33.3%
Under
66.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.0%
Under
94.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Laci
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.47
1.06
0.62
1.07
0.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.79
0.57
0.75
0.88
0.83
0.17
vs Weaker (16)
1.31
0.38
1.38
0.38
1.25
0.38
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Teuta Durrës) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Teuta Durrës
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.63
0.67
0.67
0.60
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.63
0.63
0.67
0.67
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Laci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.5%
Under 0.5
25.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
40.0%
Under 1.5
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.9%
Under 2.5
85.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Laci over/under 0.5 2H
Over
50.7%
Under
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 1.5 2H
Over
15.8%
Under
84.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës over/under 0.5 2H
Over
42.6%
Under
57.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës over/under 1.5 2H
Over
10.6%
Under
89.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Teuta Durrës over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 1.5 HT goals
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (24)
€7m
DT (27)
€7m
TD (22)
€6m
PAR (29)
€5m
AE (25)
€5m
TIR (20)
€5m
VS (23)
€4m
SK (27)
€4m
VOR (25)
€4m
LAC (22)
€3m
Laci's squad is €3m less valuable than Teuta Durrës's (€3m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
PAR (13)
€2m
TD (9)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
TIR (7)
€2m
ER (6)
€2m
VOR (10)
€2m
SK (9)
€2m
LAC (6)
€1m
VS (6)
€1m
Laci's attack is €1m less valuable than Teuta Durrës's (€1m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (5)
€2m
ER (5)
€1m
VS (7)
€1m
TIR (5)
€1m
AE (5)
€1m
LAC (6)
€1m
TD (4)
€1m
PAR (5)
€1m
SK (6)
€1m
VOR (4)
€1m
Laci and Teuta Durrës have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (13)
€3m
TD (9)
€3m
VS (10)
€3m
TIR (8)
€2m
DT (11)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
PAR (11)
€2m
SK (12)
€2m
LAC (10)
€1m
VOR (11)
€1m
Laci's defence is €1m less valuable than Teuta Durrës's (€1m vs €3m).
Albania: Superliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: Superliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Dinamo Tirana
Vora
Vllaznia Shkodër
AF Elbasani
Skenderbeu Korce
Partizani
Tirana