Defensive solidity is the headline, with both sides averaging more than a goal conceded per game. The model sees a 38% chance for a home win, 36% for a draw and 26% for an away win, making a home victory the clear favourite. The expected total is 1.7 goals, with the most likely total being one goal at 28%. The single most probable scoreline is 0-0, carrying a 19% chance. Laci, playing at home against a team of similar strength, scores 0.8 goals and concedes 1.4, while Vllaznia Shkodër, away, scores 0.67 and concedes 1.33. Suggested picks include Under 3.5 with 90.2% probability, Under 5.5 cards at 79.0%, Over 2.5 cards at 75.8%, and Under 2.5 with 74.9%. The match is expected to be tight and low-scoring, with the home side holding a slight edge.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, a 38% chance of a home win, fell short as Laci and Vllaznia Shkodër finished 1-1, leaving the game a draw. The model’s call was therefore wrong. The match saw both sides keep their unbeaten streaks intact, with Laci’s recent form noted as “unbeaten in their last 5” and Vllaznia coming off a draw. The model’s other selections proved accurate: Under 3.5 goals, with a 90.2% probability, hit, as did Under 2.5 goals at 74.9%. The final score of 1-1 matched the most likely outcome of 1-0, which carried a 16.1% chance.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Laci win✗ Miss
38.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
35.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër win✗ Miss
25.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Laci
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.18
0.67
1.33
0.80
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.80
1.20
0.80
1.40
0.80
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Vllaznia Shkodër) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vllaznia Shkodër
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.78
1.33
1.25
1.00
0.40
1.60
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (4)
0.75
1.50
1.00
2.00
0.67
1.33
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
1.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
22% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Laci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 1 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
52.9%
Under 1.5
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
25.1%
Under 2.5
74.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
9.8%
Under 3.5
90.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
34.3%
No
65.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
19.0%
1-0
16.1%
1-1 ✓
14.3%
0-1
12.0%
2-0
8.5%
2-1
6.4%
0-2
5.0%
1-2
4.9%
Laci goals ↓
Vllaznia Shkodër goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
19%
12%
5.0%
1.2%
0.2%
1
16%
14%
4.9%
1.2%
0.2%
2
8.5%
6.4%
2.4%
0.6%
0.1%
3
2.8%
2.1%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
4
0.7%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Laci goals (down), columns = Vllaznia Shkodër goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Partizani
1.86
Tirana
1.86
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.44
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.39
Laci
1.33
Teuta Durrës
1.33
FK Kukesi
1.25
Erzeni Shijak
1.11
Bylis
1.06
Korabi Peshkopi
1.00
Kastrioti Krujë
0.97
Laci is 0.06 points worse than Vllaznia Shkodër in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.39).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Partizani
1.56
Tirana
1.56
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.28
Laci
1.25
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.08
Korabi Peshkopi
1.00
Erzeni Shijak
1.00
Teuta Durrës
0.92
Bylis
0.86
FK Kukesi
0.86
Kastrioti Krujë
0.72
Laci is 0.17 goals better than Vllaznia Shkodër in terms of goals scored per game (1.25 vs 1.08).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
0.89
Tirana
0.92
FK Kukesi
0.97
Korabi Peshkopi
1.00
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.03
Partizani
1.03
Teuta Durrës
1.11
Bylis
1.17
Laci
1.28
Erzeni Shijak
1.32
Kastrioti Krujë
1.36
Laci is 0.25 goals worse than Vllaznia Shkodër in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 1.03).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Laci
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.36
0.36
0.33
0.17
0.40
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.40
0.30
0.40
0.00
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
73% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Vllaznia Shkodër) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vllaznia Shkodër
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.56
0.44
0.75
0.25
0.40
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (4)
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Laci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Laci over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Laci
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.36
0.82
0.33
1.17
0.40
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.40
0.90
0.40
1.40
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
45% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Vllaznia Shkodër) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vllaznia Shkodër
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.22
0.89
0.50
0.75
0.00
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (4)
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.67
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
44% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Laci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Laci over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (24)
€7m
TD (22)
€6m
PAR (29)
€5m
TIR (20)
€5m
VS (23)
€4m
LAC (22)
€3m
KK (18)
€2m
KP (24)
€2m
FK (20)
€1m
Laci's squad is €1m less valuable than Vllaznia Shkodër's (€3m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAR (13)
€2m
TD (9)
€2m
TIR (7)
€2m
ER (6)
€2m
LAC (6)
€1m
VS (6)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
KP (9)
€1m
FK (6)
€0m
Laci and Vllaznia Shkodër have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (5)
€1m
VS (7)
€1m
TIR (5)
€1m
LAC (6)
€1m
TD (4)
€1m
PAR (5)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
KP (4)
€0m
FK (4)
€0m
Laci and Vllaznia Shkodër have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (13)
€3m
TD (9)
€3m
VS (10)
€3m
TIR (8)
€2m
PAR (11)
€2m
LAC (10)
€1m
KP (11)
€1m
FK (10)
€1m
KK (4)
€0m
Laci's defence is €1m less valuable than Vllaznia Shkodër's (€1m vs €3m).
Albania: Superliga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: Superliga stats & trends →