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Laci vs Vllaznia Shkodër Result & Analysis

Date: 19/03/2023
Time: 12:00
Final 2-0
Laci
Laci
Vs
36%
32%
31%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Vllaznia Shkodër
Vllaznia Shkodër
Albania: Superliga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Defensive solidity is the story for this match, with both sides averaging just over one goal per game. Laci’s home form shows a modest 1.0 goal scored and 1.25 conceded, while Vllaznia Shkodër’s away numbers are slightly lower, 0.78 scored and 0.89 conceded. The model favours a home win, with a 36% chance, a 32% chance of a draw and a 31% chance of an away win. The expected total is 2.1 goals, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14.8%. The single most probable total is two goals, with a 28% probability. Suggested picks include Under 3.5, which the model rates at 83.2%. Laci’s recent unbeaten run of five games, including a 2-1 win over Partizani, contrasts with Vllaznia’s five-game slump of two draws and three losses, ending with a 1-1 draw against AF Elbasani. The match is projected to be tight and low-scoring.

Results analysis

The model’s forecast proved accurate as Laci secured a 2-0 victory, extending their unbeaten run. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was chosen with a 36% probability and the outcome matched the prediction. The model’s single selection, Under 3.5, came in at 83.2% and hit, reflecting the low-scoring affair. Laci’s recent form, highlighted by a win over Partizani, contrasted with Vllaznia’s slump of two draws and three losses, underscoring the home side’s advantage. The final score of 2-0 confirmed the favoured result and validated the model’s overall assessment.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Laci win✓ Hit
36.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
32.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër win✗ Miss
31.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

LaciLaci

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L14L41W43W21W01L01L11D12L23LH·TIR13/01A·VLL21/01H·KAS25/01H·TEU30/01A·PAR06/02H·EGN11/02H·BYL18/02A·ERZ24/02H·FK 06/03A·TIR11/03
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.031.241.131.270.931.21
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)1.001.291.001.251.001.33
vs Weaker (5)1.201.001.671.330.500.50
Clean sheet %28% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Vllaznia Shkodër) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Vllaznia ShkodërVllaznia Shkodër

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W41W01L23L20W10W00D01L11D11DA·PAR13/01H·LAC21/01A·BYL25/01A·ERZ30/01H·FK 07/02A·TIR12/02A·EGN19/02H·KAS25/02A·TEU06/03H·PAR11/03
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.111.001.540.850.711.14
vs Stronger (2)0.502.001.001.000.003.00
vs Similar (16)1.190.881.710.860.780.89
vs Weaker (9)1.111.001.400.800.751.25
Clean sheet %30% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Laci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%13%023%128%219%310%44%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
64.2%
Under 1.5
35.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
35.9%
Under 2.5
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
16.8%
Under 3.5
83.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
44.3%
No
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.8%
0-0
13.2%
1-0
11.9%
0-1
10.7%
2-1
7.5%
2-0 ✓
7.3%
1-2
6.9%
0-2
6.2%
Laci goals ↓
Vllaznia Shkodër goals →
01234
013%11%6.2%2.1%0.5%
112%15%6.9%2.3%0.6%
27.3%7.5%3.8%1.3%0.3%
32.7%2.8%1.4%0.5%0.1%
40.8%0.8%0.4%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Laci goals (down), columns = Vllaznia Shkodër goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Partizani
1.86
Tirana
1.86
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.44
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.39
Laci
1.33
Teuta Durrës
1.33
FK Kukesi
1.25
Erzeni Shijak
1.11
Bylis
1.06
Korabi Peshkopi
1.00
Kastrioti Krujë
0.97
Laci is 0.06 points worse than Vllaznia Shkodër in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.39).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Partizani
1.56
Tirana
1.56
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.28
Laci
1.25
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.08
Korabi Peshkopi
1.00
Erzeni Shijak
1.00
Teuta Durrës
0.92
Bylis
0.86
FK Kukesi
0.86
Kastrioti Krujë
0.72
Laci is 0.17 goals better than Vllaznia Shkodër in terms of goals scored per game (1.25 vs 1.08).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
0.89
Tirana
0.92
FK Kukesi
0.97
Korabi Peshkopi
1.00
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.03
Partizani
1.03
Teuta Durrës
1.11
Bylis
1.17
Laci
1.28
Erzeni Shijak
1.32
Kastrioti Krujë
1.36
Laci is 0.25 goals worse than Vllaznia Shkodër in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 1.03).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

LaciLaci

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D02L20W22D11D01L00D00D11D03LH·TIR13/01A·VLL21/01H·KAS25/01H·TEU30/01A·PAR06/02H·EGN11/02H·BYL18/02A·ERZ24/02H·FK 06/03A·TIR11/03
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.520.550.670.400.360.71
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.460.540.580.330.330.75
vs Weaker (5)0.800.601.000.670.500.50
Clean sheet %62% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Vllaznia Shkodër) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Vllaznia ShkodërVllaznia Shkodër

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D20W00D02L20W00D00D01L11D11DA·PAR13/01H·LAC21/01A·BYL25/01A·ERZ30/01H·FK 07/02A·TIR12/02A·EGN19/02H·KAS25/02A·TEU06/03H·PAR11/03
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.560.370.850.310.290.43
vs Stronger (2)0.000.500.001.000.000.00
vs Similar (16)0.620.311.000.290.330.33
vs Weaker (9)0.560.440.800.200.250.75
Clean sheet %70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Laci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Laci over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

LaciLaci

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L12L21W21W10W00D01L11D01L20WH·TIR13/01A·VLL21/01H·KAS25/01H·TEU30/01A·PAR06/02H·EGN11/02H·BYL18/02A·ERZ24/02H·FK 06/03A·TIR11/03
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.520.690.470.870.570.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.540.750.420.920.670.58
vs Weaker (5)0.400.400.670.670.000.00
Clean sheet %48% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Vllaznia Shkodër) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Vllaznia ShkodërVllaznia Shkodër

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W21W01L21W00D10W00D00D00D00DA·PAR13/01H·LAC21/01A·BYL25/01A·ERZ30/01H·FK 07/02A·TIR12/02A·EGN19/02H·KAS25/02A·TEU06/03H·PAR11/03
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.560.630.690.540.430.71
vs Stronger (2)0.501.501.000.000.003.00
vs Similar (16)0.560.560.710.570.440.56
vs Weaker (9)0.560.560.600.600.500.50
Clean sheet %52% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Laci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Laci over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.583.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (24)
€7m
TD (22)
€6m
PAR (29)
€5m
TIR (20)
€5m
VS (23)
€4m
LAC (22)
€3m
KK (18)
€2m
KP (24)
€2m
FK (20)
€1m
Laci's squad is €1m less valuable than Vllaznia Shkodër's (€3m vs €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAR (13)
€2m
TD (9)
€2m
TIR (7)
€2m
ER (6)
€2m
LAC (6)
€1m
VS (6)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
KP (9)
€1m
FK (6)
€0m
Laci and Vllaznia Shkodër have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (5)
€1m
VS (7)
€1m
TIR (5)
€1m
LAC (6)
€1m
TD (4)
€1m
PAR (5)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
KP (4)
€0m
FK (4)
€0m
Laci and Vllaznia Shkodër have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (13)
€3m
TD (9)
€3m
VS (10)
€3m
TIR (8)
€2m
PAR (11)
€2m
LAC (10)
€1m
KP (11)
€1m
FK (10)
€1m
KK (4)
€0m
Laci's defence is €1m less valuable than Vllaznia Shkodër's (€1m vs €3m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
LAC wins
1
Draws
1
VS wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Laci vs Vllaznia Shkodër · H/A from LAC
DateH/AGameScore
21/01/23AVllaznia Shkodër Vs LAC4-1
16/10/22HLAC Vs Vllaznia Shkodër1-1

LaciLaci

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/03/23ATirana Vs LAC3-2
06/03/23HLAC Vs FK Kukesi1-2
24/02/23AErzeni Shijak Vs LAC1-1
18/02/23HLAC Vs Bylis0-1
11/02/23HLAC Vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë0-1
06/02/23APartizani Vs LAC1-2
30/01/23HLAC Vs Teuta Durrës4-3
25/01/23HLAC Vs Kastrioti Krujë4-1
21/01/23AVllaznia Shkodër Vs LAC4-1
13/01/23HLAC Vs Tirana1-2

Vllaznia ShkodërVllaznia Shkodër

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/03/23HVS Vs Partizani1-1
06/03/23ATeuta Durrës Vs VS1-1
25/02/23HVS Vs Kastrioti Krujë0-1
19/02/23AEgnatia Rrogozhinë Vs VS0-0
12/02/23ATirana Vs VS0-1
07/02/23HVS Vs FK Kukesi2-0
30/01/23AErzeni Shijak Vs VS3-2
25/01/23ABylis Vs VS1-0
21/01/23HVS Vs Laci4-1
13/01/23APartizani Vs VS1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Laci
Laci
Albania: Superliga
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDLL1.21
HomeWWLLL1.13
AwayLLWDL1.29
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%33%36%
AVG goals2.282.402.14
Over 1.5 %45%47%43%
Over 2.5 %34%40%29%
Over 3.5 %24%27%21%
Scored1.031.130.93
Conceded1.241.271.21
BTTS41%47%36%
Clean Sheet28%20%36%
Corners12.0011.0013.00
Cards4.005.003.00
Vllaznia Shkodër
Vllaznia Shkodër
Albania: Superliga
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLDD1.41
HomeWWWLD1.69
AwayLLWDD1.14
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %37%46%29%
AVG goals2.112.381.86
Over 1.5 %59%69%50%
Over 2.5 %41%46%36%
Over 3.5 %15%23%7%
Scored1.111.540.71
Conceded1.000.851.14
BTTS44%54%36%
Clean Sheet30%31%29%
Corners10.009.0011.00
Cards4.506.003.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1TiranaTirana3667
56%
1.9
5633+23
2.5
69%
44%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.60.9
-
2PartizaniPartizani3667
56%
1.9
5637+19
2.6
78%
50%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.61.0
-
3Egnatia RrogozhinëEgnatia Rrogozhinë3652
39%
1.4
4632+14
2.2
64%
39%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2131.30.9
-
4Vllaznia ShkodërVllaznia Shkodër3650
36%
1.4
3937+2
2.1
58%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1131.11.0
-
5LaciLaci3648
39%
1.3
4546-1
2.5
64%
42%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.21.3
-
6Teuta DurrësTeuta Durrës3648
33%
1.3
3340-7
2.0
61%
31%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2130.91.1
-
7FK KukesiFK Kukesi3645
33%
1.2
3135-4
1.8
58%
31%
6%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.91.0
-
8Erzeni ShijakErzeni Shijak3741
22%
1.1
3749-12
2.3
73%
38%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.3
-
9BylisBylis3638
25%
1.1
3142-11
2.0
61%
31%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.2
-
10Kastrioti KrujëKastrioti Krujë3635
22%
1.0
2649-23
2.1
53%
36%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1100.71.4
-
11Korabi PeshkopiKorabi Peshkopi11
0%
1.0
11+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.0
-
Albania: Superliga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: Superliga stats & trends →

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