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Laci vs Vllaznia Shkodër Result & Analysis

Date: 19/09/2023
Time: 13:00
Final 2-1
Laci
Laci
Vs
49%
25%
26%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Vllaznia Shkodër
Vllaznia Shkodër
Albania: Superliga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Laci are tipped to take the win, with a 49% chance of triumph against Vllaznia Shkodër, who face a 26% chance of victory and a 25% chance of a draw. The model expects an average of three goals, but the most likely total is two, a 23% probability. The single most probable scoreline is a 1-1 draw, with an 11.8% chance. Laci’s home form shows they average 1.92 goals scored and 1.42 conceded against similarly ranked opponents, while Vllaznia’s away record is 0.89 goals scored and 1.22 conceded. Laci have gone unbeaten in their last five matches, winning four, and just beat Partizani 2-1, whereas Vllaznia are coming off a 1-1 draw with AF Elbasani. The model’s selection includes an Over 1.5 goal pick at 81.6%.

Results analysis

The updated form storyline shows Laci extending their unbeaten run with a win over Partizani, while Vllaznia Shkodër come off a draw. The model’s pre-match favourite was a Home win with a 49% probability, and that call proved correct as Laci triumphed 2-1. The model’s selection for Over 1.5 goals, at 81.6%, also hit, as the match saw three goals. All other suggested picks were settled; the only listed selection was Over 1.5, and it was a hit. The final score of 2-1 matched the actual result, confirming the model’s predictions and the home side’s advantage.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Laci win✓ Hit
49.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër win✗ Miss
25.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

LaciLaci

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-611D20W11D03L13L11D30W33D01L61WA·EGN22/04A·BYL29/04H·ERZ07/05A·FK 17/05H·TIR21/05A·VLL25/05H·KAS29/05H·ERZ27/08A·PAR03/09H·TEU15/09
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.531.372.071.331.001.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)1.541.331.921.421.171.25
vs Weaker (6)1.501.502.671.000.332.00
Clean sheet %23% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Vllaznia Shkodër) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Vllaznia ShkodërVllaznia Shkodër

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-322D10W12L11D21W13L10W31W22D00DA·KAS06/05H·TEU17/05A·PAR21/05H·LAC25/05A·BYL29/05A·LIN13/07H·LIN20/07H·FK 26/08A·ERZ01/09H·PAR14/09
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.031.250.751.001.36
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)0.950.951.000.750.891.22
vs Weaker (9)1.561.222.000.751.201.60
Clean sheet %33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Laci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%17%23%6%013%123%222%317%410%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.6%
Under 1.5
18.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
58.3%
Under 2.5
41.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.9%
Under 3.5
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.3%
No
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%
2-1 ✓
9.6%
2-0
7.7%
1-0
7.6%
1-2
6.7%
2-2
6.0%
0-0
5.9%
3-1
5.7%
Laci goals ↓
Vllaznia Shkodër goals →
01234
05.9%5.0%3.7%1.6%0.5%
17.6%12%6.7%2.8%0.9%
27.7%9.6%6.0%2.5%0.8%
34.6%5.7%3.5%1.5%0.5%
42.0%2.5%1.6%0.7%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Laci goals (down), columns = Vllaznia Shkodër goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.76
Partizani
1.74
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.58
Skenderbeu Korce
1.42
Teuta Durrës
1.39
Tirana
1.39
Dinamo Tirana
1.31
Laci
1.27
Flamurtari
1.00
Erzeni Shijak
0.89
FK Kukesi
0.75
Laci is 0.31 points worse than Vllaznia Shkodër in terms of average points per game (1.27 vs 1.58).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Tirana
1.56
Partizani
1.37
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.37
Dinamo Tirana
1.17
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.13
Skenderbeu Korce
1.05
Laci
1.03
Teuta Durrës
1.00
Flamurtari
1.00
FK Kukesi
0.86
Erzeni Shijak
0.81
Laci is 0.10 goals worse than Vllaznia Shkodër in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 1.13).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Partizani
0.79
Laci
0.86
Teuta Durrës
0.97
Vllaznia Shkodër
0.97
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.00
Flamurtari
1.00
Skenderbeu Korce
1.11
Dinamo Tirana
1.19
Tirana
1.36
FK Kukesi
1.56
Erzeni Shijak
1.58
Laci is 0.11 goals better than Vllaznia Shkodër in terms of goals conceded per game (0.86 vs 0.97).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

LaciLaci

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W10W00D01L00D10W21W00D20WA·EGN22/04A·BYL29/04H·ERZ07/05A·FK 17/05H·TIR21/05A·VLL25/05H·KAS29/05H·ERZ27/08A·PAR03/09H·TEU15/09
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.501.130.530.200.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.670.541.080.580.250.50
vs Weaker (6)0.670.331.330.330.000.33
Clean sheet %63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Vllaznia Shkodër) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Vllaznia ShkodërVllaznia Shkodër

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D10W02L00D11D00D00D21W11D00DA·KAS06/05H·TEU17/05A·PAR21/05H·LAC25/05A·BYL29/05A·LIN13/07H·LIN20/07H·FK 26/08A·ERZ01/09H·PAR14/09
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.530.690.380.290.71
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)0.380.480.500.330.220.67
vs Weaker (9)0.780.671.250.500.400.80
Clean sheet %57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Laci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Laci over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

LaciLaci

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D10W01L03L12L11D20W12L01L41WA·EGN22/04A·BYL29/04H·ERZ07/05A·FK 17/05H·TIR21/05A·VLL25/05H·KAS29/05H·ERZ27/08A·PAR03/09H·TEU15/09
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.870.930.800.800.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.880.790.830.830.920.75
vs Weaker (6)0.831.171.330.670.331.67
Clean sheet %37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Vllaznia Shkodër) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Vllaznia ShkodërVllaznia Shkodër

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D10W11D10W13L10W10W11D00DA·KAS06/05H·TEU17/05A·PAR21/05H·LAC25/05A·BYL29/05A·LIN13/07H·LIN20/07H·FK 26/08A·ERZ01/09H·PAR14/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.500.560.380.710.64
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)0.570.480.500.420.670.56
vs Weaker (9)0.780.560.750.250.800.80
Clean sheet %63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Laci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Laci over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.581.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (24)
€7m
DT (27)
€7m
TD (22)
€6m
PAR (29)
€5m
TIR (20)
€5m
VS (23)
€4m
SK (27)
€4m
LAC (22)
€3m
FK (20)
€1m
Laci's squad is €1m less valuable than Vllaznia Shkodër's (€3m vs €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
PAR (13)
€2m
TD (9)
€2m
TIR (7)
€2m
ER (6)
€2m
SK (9)
€2m
LAC (6)
€1m
VS (6)
€1m
FK (6)
€0m
Laci and Vllaznia Shkodër have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (5)
€2m
ER (5)
€1m
VS (7)
€1m
TIR (5)
€1m
LAC (6)
€1m
TD (4)
€1m
PAR (5)
€1m
SK (6)
€1m
FK (4)
€0m
Laci and Vllaznia Shkodër have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (13)
€3m
TD (9)
€3m
VS (10)
€3m
TIR (8)
€2m
DT (11)
€2m
PAR (11)
€2m
SK (12)
€2m
LAC (10)
€1m
FK (10)
€1m
Laci's defence is €1m less valuable than Vllaznia Shkodër's (€1m vs €3m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
1
LAC wins
2
Draws
1
VS wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Laci vs Vllaznia Shkodër · H/A from LAC
DateH/AGameScore
25/05/23AVllaznia Shkodër Vs LAC1-1
19/03/23HLAC Vs Vllaznia Shkodër2-0
21/01/23AVllaznia Shkodër Vs LAC4-1
16/10/22HLAC Vs Vllaznia Shkodër1-1

LaciLaci

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/09/23HLAC Vs Teuta Durrës6-1
03/09/23APartizani Vs LAC1-0
27/08/23HLAC Vs Erzeni Shijak3-3
29/05/23HLAC Vs Kastrioti Krujë3-0
25/05/23AVllaznia Shkodër Vs LAC1-1
21/05/23HLAC Vs Tirana1-3
17/05/23AFK Kukesi Vs LAC3-0
07/05/23HLAC Vs Erzeni Shijak1-1
29/04/23ABylis Vs LAC0-2
22/04/23AEgnatia Rrogozhinë Vs LAC1-1

Vllaznia ShkodërVllaznia Shkodër

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/09/23HVS Vs Partizani0-0
01/09/23AErzeni Shijak Vs VS2-2
26/08/23HVS Vs FK Kukesi3-1
20/07/23HVS Vs Linfield1-0
13/07/23ALinfield Vs VS3-1
29/05/23ABylis Vs VS1-2
25/05/23HVS Vs Laci1-1
21/05/23APartizani Vs VS2-1
17/05/23HVS Vs Teuta Durrës1-0
06/05/23AKastrioti Krujë Vs VS2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Laci
Laci
Albania: Superliga
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWDLW1.33
HomeDLWDW1.41
AwayDWLDL1.24
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %37%41%33%
AVG goals2.582.952.19
Over 1.5 %60%64%57%
Over 2.5 %42%50%33%
Over 3.5 %26%36%14%
Scored1.301.640.95
Conceded1.281.321.24
BTTS49%55%43%
Clean Sheet26%23%29%
Corners12.0011.0013.00
Cards4.005.003.00
Vllaznia Shkodër
Vllaznia Shkodër
Albania: Superliga
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWDD1.37
HomeWDWWD1.68
AwayDLWLD1.05
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %35%45%24%
AVG goals2.192.182.19
Over 1.5 %60%59%62%
Over 2.5 %44%41%48%
Over 3.5 %23%27%19%
Scored1.091.320.86
Conceded1.090.861.33
BTTS47%45%48%
Clean Sheet30%36%24%
Corners11.7510.0013.50
Cards5.756.505.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Egnatia RrogozhinëEgnatia Rrogozhinë3867
50%
1.8
5238+14
2.4
66%
42%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2131.41.0
-
2PartizaniPartizani3866
47%
1.7
5230+22
2.2
63%
37%
13%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.40.8
-
3Vllaznia ShkodërVllaznia Shkodër3860
42%
1.6
4337+6
2.1
58%
34%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1131.11.0
-
4Skenderbeu KorceSkenderbeu Korce3854
42%
1.4
4042-2
2.2
53%
29%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.11.1
-
5TiranaTirana3650
36%
1.4
5649+7
2.9
78%
56%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.61.4
-
6Teuta DurrësTeuta Durrës3650
36%
1.4
3635+1
2.0
50%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2131.01.0
-
7LaciLaci3747
27%
1.3
3832+6
1.9
59%
24%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.00.9
-
8Dinamo TiranaDinamo Tirana3647
36%
1.3
4243-1
2.4
67%
42%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.21.2
-
9Erzeni ShijakErzeni Shijak3632
19%
0.9
2957-28
2.4
61%
47%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.6
-
10FK KukesiFK Kukesi3627
17%
0.8
3156-25
2.4
61%
42%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.91.6
-
11FlamurtariFlamurtari11
0%
1.0
11+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
Albania: Superliga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: Superliga stats & trends →

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