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Laci vs Vllaznia Shkodër Result & Analysis

Date: 04/02/2024
Time: 12:30
Final 1-1
Laci
Laci
Vs
42%
30%
28%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Vllaznia Shkodër
Vllaznia Shkodër
Albania: Superliga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Laci are tipped to win in a closely contested Albanian Superliga clash, with the model favouring a home victory at 42%. The expected goal tally hovers around 2.4, suggesting a modestly open affair. The single most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, carrying a 14.2% chance, a figure that reflects the balanced attacking output of both sides. Laci’s home form shows they average 1.62 goals scored and 1.38 conceded against teams of similar strength, while Vllaznia Shkodër, on the road, typically net 1.1 and allow 1.6 when facing comparable opponents. The suggested selections include an 78.1% chance of Under 3.5 goals and a 70.2% chance of Over 1.5 goals. The home win probability sits at 42%, the draw at 30%, and the away win at 28%. These figures, combined with recent unbeaten streaks for Laci and a draw-laden run for Vllaznia, paint a picture of a match where the home side’s slight edge could be decisive.

Results analysis

The upset came early as Laci, the pre-match favourite, could not force a win, leaving the match to finish 1-1 and a draw. The model had picked a home win with a 42% probability, but this call was wrong. The final score of 1-1 matched the model’s most likely score of 1-1, which had a 14.2% chance. The model’s prediction of a total of 2 goals was also correct, and the suggested picks proved accurate: Under 3.5 goals hit with a 78.1% probability, and Over 1.5 goals hit with a 70.2% probability. Laci’s unbeaten run of five games, highlighted by a 2-1 win over Partizani, contrasted with Vllaznia’s recent three-game losing streak, yet the game ended in a stalemate.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Laci win✗ Miss
42.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
30.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër win✗ Miss
28.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

LaciLaci

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D02L02L22D10W11D00D21W11DA·TEU05/11A·VLL24/11H·EGN28/11A·DIN03/12H·TIR10/12A·SKE17/12H·FK 23/12H·ERZ14/01A·PAR20/01H·TEU28/01
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.101.671.270.930.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)1.351.081.621.381.080.77
vs Weaker (4)1.001.252.000.500.002.00
Clean sheet %27% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Vllaznia Shkodër) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Vllaznia ShkodërVllaznia Shkodër

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-514L00D10W03L31W10W50W10W10W11DA·PAR06/11H·LAC24/11A·TEU28/11A·EGN02/12H·DIN10/12A·TIR17/12H·SKE22/12H·FK 14/01A·ERZ20/01H·PAR28/01
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.131.190.811.141.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)1.091.171.080.851.101.60
vs Weaker (7)1.431.001.670.671.251.25
Clean sheet %37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Laci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%27%10%019%127%221%312%46%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.2%
Under 1.5
29.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
42.7%
Under 2.5
57.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.9%
Under 3.5
78.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.2%
No
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.2%
1-0
11.0%
0-0
10.5%
2-1
8.6%
0-1
8.3%
2-0
8.2%
1-2
6.8%
0-2
5.0%
Laci goals ↓
Vllaznia Shkodër goals →
01234
010%8.3%5.0%1.8%0.5%
111%14%6.8%2.4%0.6%
28.2%8.6%4.5%1.6%0.4%
33.7%3.9%2.0%0.7%0.2%
41.2%1.3%0.7%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Laci goals (down), columns = Vllaznia Shkodër goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.76
Partizani
1.74
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.58
Skenderbeu Korce
1.42
Teuta Durrës
1.39
Tirana
1.39
Dinamo Tirana
1.31
Laci
1.27
Flamurtari
1.00
Erzeni Shijak
0.89
FK Kukesi
0.75
Laci is 0.31 points worse than Vllaznia Shkodër in terms of average points per game (1.27 vs 1.58).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Tirana
1.56
Partizani
1.37
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.37
Dinamo Tirana
1.17
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.13
Skenderbeu Korce
1.05
Laci
1.03
Teuta Durrës
1.00
Flamurtari
1.00
FK Kukesi
0.86
Erzeni Shijak
0.81
Laci is 0.10 goals worse than Vllaznia Shkodër in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 1.13).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Partizani
0.79
Laci
0.86
Teuta Durrës
0.97
Vllaznia Shkodër
0.97
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.00
Flamurtari
1.00
Skenderbeu Korce
1.11
Dinamo Tirana
1.19
Tirana
1.36
FK Kukesi
1.56
Erzeni Shijak
1.58
Laci is 0.11 goals better than Vllaznia Shkodër in terms of goals conceded per game (0.86 vs 0.97).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

LaciLaci

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D00D01L02L10W01L00D01L10WA·TEU05/11A·VLL24/11H·EGN28/11A·DIN03/12H·TIR10/12A·SKE17/12H·FK 23/12H·ERZ14/01A·PAR20/01H·TEU28/01
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.400.670.530.200.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)0.460.420.690.540.230.31
vs Weaker (4)0.250.250.500.500.000.00
Clean sheet %63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Vllaznia Shkodër) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Vllaznia ShkodërVllaznia Shkodër

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L00D10W03L21W10W10W10W00D11DA·PAR06/11H·LAC24/11A·TEU28/11A·EGN02/12H·DIN10/12A·TIR17/12H·SKE22/12H·FK 14/01A·ERZ20/01H·PAR28/01
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.570.690.310.500.86
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)0.520.610.540.310.501.00
vs Weaker (7)0.860.431.330.330.500.50
Clean sheet %60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Laci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Laci over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

LaciLaci

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D02L01L20W00D10W00D20W01LA·TEU05/11A·VLL24/11H·EGN28/11A·DIN03/12H·TIR10/12A·SKE17/12H·FK 23/12H·ERZ14/01A·PAR20/01H·TEU28/01
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.701.000.730.730.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)0.880.650.920.850.850.46
vs Weaker (4)0.751.001.500.000.002.00
Clean sheet %47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Vllaznia Shkodër) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Vllaznia ShkodërVllaznia Shkodër

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L00D00D00D10W00D40W00D10W00DA·PAR06/11H·LAC24/11A·TEU28/11A·EGN02/12H·DIN10/12A·TIR17/12H·SKE22/12H·FK 14/01A·ERZ20/01H·PAR28/01
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.570.500.500.640.64
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)0.570.570.540.540.600.60
vs Weaker (7)0.570.570.330.330.750.75
Clean sheet %60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Laci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Laci over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.578.1%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.570.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (24)
€7m
DT (27)
€7m
TD (22)
€6m
PAR (29)
€5m
TIR (20)
€5m
VS (23)
€4m
SK (27)
€4m
LAC (22)
€3m
FK (20)
€1m
Laci's squad is €1m less valuable than Vllaznia Shkodër's (€3m vs €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
PAR (13)
€2m
TD (9)
€2m
TIR (7)
€2m
ER (6)
€2m
SK (9)
€2m
LAC (6)
€1m
VS (6)
€1m
FK (6)
€0m
Laci and Vllaznia Shkodër have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (5)
€2m
ER (5)
€1m
VS (7)
€1m
TIR (5)
€1m
LAC (6)
€1m
TD (4)
€1m
PAR (5)
€1m
SK (6)
€1m
FK (4)
€0m
Laci and Vllaznia Shkodër have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (13)
€3m
TD (9)
€3m
VS (10)
€3m
TIR (8)
€2m
DT (11)
€2m
PAR (11)
€2m
SK (12)
€2m
LAC (10)
€1m
FK (10)
€1m
Laci's defence is €1m less valuable than Vllaznia Shkodër's (€1m vs €3m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
2
LAC wins
3
Draws
1
VS wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Laci vs Vllaznia Shkodër · H/A from LAC
DateH/AGameScore
24/11/23AVllaznia Shkodër Vs LAC0-0
19/09/23HLAC Vs Vllaznia Shkodër2-1
25/05/23AVllaznia Shkodër Vs LAC1-1
19/03/23HLAC Vs Vllaznia Shkodër2-0
21/01/23AVllaznia Shkodër Vs LAC4-1
16/10/22HLAC Vs Vllaznia Shkodër1-1

LaciLaci

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/01/24HLAC Vs Teuta Durrës1-1
20/01/24APartizani Vs LAC1-2
14/01/24HLAC Vs Erzeni Shijak0-0
23/12/23HLAC Vs FK Kukesi1-1
17/12/23ASkenderbeu Korce Vs LAC0-1
10/12/23HLAC Vs Tirana2-2
03/12/23ADinamo Tirana Vs LAC2-0
28/11/23HLAC Vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë0-2
24/11/23AVllaznia Shkodër Vs LAC0-0
05/11/23ATeuta Durrës Vs LAC1-1

Vllaznia ShkodërVllaznia Shkodër

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/01/24HVS Vs Partizani1-1
20/01/24AErzeni Shijak Vs VS0-1
14/01/24HVS Vs FK Kukesi1-0
22/12/23HVS Vs Skenderbeu Korce5-0
17/12/23ATirana Vs VS0-1
10/12/23HVS Vs Dinamo Tirana3-1
02/12/23AEgnatia Rrogozhinë Vs VS3-0
28/11/23ATeuta Durrës Vs VS0-1
24/11/23HVS Vs Laci0-0
06/11/23APartizani Vs VS4-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Laci
Laci
Albania: Superliga
Recent: 2 Wins / 6 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDDWD1.40
HomeLDDDD1.48
AwayDDLWW1.32
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%40%36%
AVG goals2.442.802.08
Over 1.5 %68%72%64%
Over 2.5 %40%44%36%
Over 3.5 %18%28%8%
Scored1.281.600.96
Conceded1.161.201.12
BTTS50%56%44%
Clean Sheet28%24%32%
Corners---
Cards---
Vllaznia Shkodër
Vllaznia Shkodër
Albania: Superliga
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWD1.44
HomeDWWWD1.62
AwayLWLWW1.25
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%42%33%
AVG goals2.162.122.21
Over 1.5 %58%58%58%
Over 2.5 %36%31%42%
Over 3.5 %26%31%21%
Scored1.161.350.96
Conceded1.000.771.25
BTTS40%35%46%
Clean Sheet38%42%33%
Corners13.5011.0016.00
Cards7.007.007.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Egnatia RrogozhinëEgnatia Rrogozhinë3867
50%
1.8
5238+14
2.4
66%
42%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2131.41.0
-
2PartizaniPartizani3866
47%
1.7
5230+22
2.2
63%
37%
13%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.40.8
-
3Vllaznia ShkodërVllaznia Shkodër3860
42%
1.6
4337+6
2.1
58%
34%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1131.11.0
-
4Skenderbeu KorceSkenderbeu Korce3854
42%
1.4
4042-2
2.2
53%
29%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.11.1
-
5TiranaTirana3650
36%
1.4
5649+7
2.9
78%
56%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.61.4
-
6Teuta DurrësTeuta Durrës3650
36%
1.4
3635+1
2.0
50%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2131.01.0
-
7LaciLaci3747
27%
1.3
3832+6
1.9
59%
24%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.00.9
-
8Dinamo TiranaDinamo Tirana3647
36%
1.3
4243-1
2.4
67%
42%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.21.2
-
9Erzeni ShijakErzeni Shijak3632
19%
0.9
2957-28
2.4
61%
47%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.6
-
10FK KukesiFK Kukesi3627
17%
0.8
3156-25
2.4
61%
42%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.91.6
-
11FlamurtariFlamurtari11
0%
1.0
11+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
Albania: Superliga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: Superliga stats & trends →

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