Defensive solidity will shape this low-scoring encounter, as both sides have conceded nearly as many as they score against comparable opposition. Laci’s home form shows 0.71 goals per game while giving up 0.86, and Vllaznia Shkodër’s away numbers are 0.86 scored and 0.71 conceded, making a tight contest likely. The model favours a home win, with a 36% chance of Laci triumphing, a 36% chance of a draw, and a 28% chance of Vllaznia winning. The average expected total is 1.8 goals, and the single most probable scoreline is 0-0, which carries a 18.7% probability. The model’s selections include an Under 3.5 with an 89.9% chance and an Under 2.5 with a 74.3% chance. The most likely total of 2 goals has a 28% probability. Laci’s recent unbeaten run of five matches, including a 2-1 win over Partizani, and Vllaznia’s recent draw against AF Elbasani set the stage for a cautious, defensive battle.
Results analysis
Laci’s unbeaten run of five games, highlighted by a recent 2-1 win over Partizani, continued as they secured a 3-1 victory over Vllaznia Shkodër, confirming the model’s Home win pick with a 36% probability. The actual total of four goals far exceeded the expected 1.8 and the most likely total of two, showing a much higher scoring affair than anticipated. The model’s Under 3.5 selection, at 89.9%, missed, as did the Under 2.5 pick with 74.3%. With the final score of 3-1, the model’s prediction of a home win proved correct, while both goal-related selections were wrong.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Laci win✓ Hit
35.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
36.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër win✗ Miss
28.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Laci
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.83
0.81
0.81
0.79
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.78
0.85
0.71
0.86
0.85
0.85
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
1.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Vllaznia Shkodër) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vllaznia Shkodër
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.03
1.43
1.36
0.81
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.15
1.08
1.50
1.50
0.86
0.71
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.75
1.00
0.50
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Laci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
53.6%
Under 1.5
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
25.7%
Under 2.5
74.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
10.1%
Under 3.5
89.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
35.2%
No
64.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
18.7%
1-0
15.0%
1-1
14.6%
0-1
12.8%
2-0
7.7%
2-1
6.2%
0-2
5.7%
1-2
5.4%
Laci goals ↓
Vllaznia Shkodër goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
19%
13%
5.7%
1.5%
0.3%
1
15%
15%
5.4%
1.5%
0.3%
2
7.7%
6.2%
2.5%
0.7%
0.1%
3
2.4%
2.0%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
4
0.6%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Laci goals (down), columns = Vllaznia Shkodër goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.66
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.58
Partizani
1.50
Dinamo Tirana
1.45
AF Elbasani
1.39
Teuta Durrës
1.22
Bylis
1.17
Tirana
1.08
Skenderbeu Korce
1.06
Laci
1.03
Laci is 0.55 points worse than Vllaznia Shkodër in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 1.58).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.47
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.34
Dinamo Tirana
1.34
Tirana
1.19
AF Elbasani
1.11
Partizani
1.05
Skenderbeu Korce
0.97
Bylis
0.92
Laci
0.86
Teuta Durrës
0.81
Laci is 0.61 goals worse than Vllaznia Shkodër in terms of goals scored per game (0.86 vs 1.47).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
0.79
Partizani
0.89
Laci
1.03
AF Elbasani
1.06
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.16
Teuta Durrës
1.17
Dinamo Tirana
1.18
Tirana
1.22
Skenderbeu Korce
1.25
Bylis
1.39
Laci is 0.13 goals better than Vllaznia Shkodër in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 1.16).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Laci
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.20
0.37
0.31
0.38
0.07
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.19
0.37
0.29
0.36
0.08
0.38
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Vllaznia Shkodër) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vllaznia Shkodër
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.50
0.79
0.71
0.44
0.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.62
0.54
0.75
0.75
0.50
0.36
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.25
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Laci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Laci over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Laci
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.47
0.50
0.44
0.71
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.59
0.48
0.43
0.50
0.77
0.46
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Vllaznia Shkodër) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vllaznia Shkodër
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.53
0.64
0.64
0.38
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.54
0.54
0.75
0.75
0.36
0.36
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Laci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Laci over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 2.5
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (24)
€7m
DT (27)
€7m
TD (22)
€6m
PAR (29)
€5m
AE (25)
€5m
TIR (20)
€5m
VS (23)
€4m
SK (27)
€4m
LAC (22)
€3m
Laci's squad is €1m less valuable than Vllaznia Shkodër's (€3m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
PAR (13)
€2m
TD (9)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
TIR (7)
€2m
ER (6)
€2m
SK (9)
€2m
LAC (6)
€1m
VS (6)
€1m
Laci and Vllaznia Shkodër have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (5)
€2m
ER (5)
€1m
VS (7)
€1m
TIR (5)
€1m
AE (5)
€1m
LAC (6)
€1m
TD (4)
€1m
PAR (5)
€1m
SK (6)
€1m
Laci and Vllaznia Shkodër have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (13)
€3m
TD (9)
€3m
VS (10)
€3m
TIR (8)
€2m
DT (11)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
PAR (11)
€2m
SK (12)
€2m
LAC (10)
€1m
Laci's defence is €1m less valuable than Vllaznia Shkodër's (€1m vs €3m).
Albania: Superliga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: Superliga stats & trends →