Laci’s defensive solidity, conceding just 0.91 goals per game at home, sets the tone for a tight, low-scoring affair. The model predicts a home win, with a 39 % chance of victory, a 31 % chance of a draw and a 29 % chance of a Vllaznia win. The expected total is 2.2 goals, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.6 % probability. Laci’s average of 2.09 goals scored at home against similar opposition contrasts sharply with Vllaznia’s 0.69 away goals for and 0.77 conceded, underscoring the home side’s advantage. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.8 %), Under 6.5 (99.2 %), Away under 3.5 goals (98.1 %), Under 5.5 (97.4 %), Home under 3.5 goals (96.5 %), Under 4.5 (92.6 %), Away under 2.5 goals (91.8 %) and Home +2 handicap (88.6 %). Laci’s unbeaten run in the last five, ending in a 1-1 draw, and Vllaznia’s recent 2-2 stalemate, suggest a cautious contest where the home side’s edge may prove decisive.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Laci win
39.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
31.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër win
29.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Laci
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
0.70
2.00
0.88
1.71
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.64
0.64
1.88
1.00
1.33
0.17
vs Weaker (16)
2.06
0.75
2.12
0.75
2.00
0.75
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Vllaznia Shkodër) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vllaznia Shkodër
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.90
1.19
1.00
0.71
0.79
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.97
0.90
1.19
1.00
0.71
0.79
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Laci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
66.2%
Under 1.5
33.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
38.0%
Under 2.5
62.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
18.3%
Under 3.5
81.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
45.8%
No
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
12.3%
1-0
11.8%
0-1
9.7%
2-1
8.0%
2-0
7.9%
1-2
6.7%
0-2
5.6%
Laci goals ↓
Vllaznia Shkodër goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
9.7%
5.6%
1.9%
0.5%
1
12%
15%
6.7%
2.3%
0.6%
2
7.9%
8.0%
4.0%
1.4%
0.3%
3
3.2%
3.2%
1.6%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.0%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Laci goals (down), columns = Vllaznia Shkodër goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
AF Elbasani
1.74
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.69
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.62
Partizani
1.33
Dinamo Tirana
1.33
Tirana
1.22
Teuta Durrës
1.22
Vora
1.17
Skenderbeu Korce
1.17
Laci
1.09
Laci is 0.52 points worse than Vllaznia Shkodër in terms of average points per game (1.09 vs 1.62).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
AF Elbasani
1.36
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.28
Dinamo Tirana
1.15
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.13
Vora
1.08
Partizani
1.06
Tirana
1.00
Skenderbeu Korce
0.91
Teuta Durrës
0.89
Laci
0.85
Laci is 0.28 goals worse than Vllaznia Shkodër in terms of goals scored per game (0.85 vs 1.13).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vllaznia Shkodër
0.85
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
0.90
Dinamo Tirana
0.97
Teuta Durrës
1.00
AF Elbasani
1.08
Vora
1.11
Skenderbeu Korce
1.21
Tirana
1.28
Laci
1.29
Partizani
1.33
Laci is 0.45 goals worse than Vllaznia Shkodër in terms of goals conceded per game (1.29 vs 0.85).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Laci or Draw
70.6%
Avg Implied -
39%
32%
29%
covers Laci + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Laci or Vllaznia Shkodër
68.5%
Avg Implied -
39%
32%
29%
covers Laci + Vllaznia Shkodër
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Vllaznia Shkodër
60.9%
Avg Implied -
39%
32%
29%
covers Draw + Vllaznia Shkodër
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Laci over/under 0.5
Over
70.0%
Under
30.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 1.5
Over
33.8%
Under
66.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 2.5
Over
12.1%
Under
87.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 3.5
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 0.5
Over
63.6%
Under
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 1.5
Over
26.8%
Under
73.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 2.5
Over
8.2%
Under
91.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 3.5
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Laci, so a minus line means Laci give that many goals of a start and Vllaznia Shkodër receive them. At -1, Laci must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Laci win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Laci)
Laci -2
5.8%
Draw -2
11.6%
Vllaznia Shkodër +2
82.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Laci)
Laci -1
17.5%
Draw -1
21.6%
Vllaznia Shkodër +1
60.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Laci)
Laci +1
70.6%
Draw +1
17.9%
Vllaznia Shkodër -1
11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Laci)
Laci +2
88.5%
Draw +2
8.2%
Vllaznia Shkodër -2
3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Laci
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.23
0.94
0.25
0.64
0.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.86
0.07
1.12
0.12
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (16)
0.75
0.38
0.75
0.38
0.75
0.38
Clean sheet %
80% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Vllaznia Shkodër) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vllaznia Shkodër
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.30
0.62
0.19
0.29
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.47
0.30
0.62
0.19
0.29
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
73% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Laci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
64.6%
Under 0.5
35.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
27.2%
Under 1.5
72.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
9.0%
Under 2.5
91.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Laci over/under 0.5 HT
Over
42.0%
Under
58.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.1%
Under
90.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 0.5 HT
Over
38.0%
Under
62.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.8%
Under
92.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Laci
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.47
1.06
0.62
1.07
0.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.79
0.57
0.75
0.88
0.83
0.17
vs Weaker (16)
1.31
0.38
1.38
0.38
1.25
0.38
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Vllaznia Shkodër) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vllaznia Shkodër
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.60
0.56
0.81
0.43
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.50
0.60
0.56
0.81
0.43
0.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Laci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.4%
Under 0.5
25.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
38.0%
Under 1.5
62.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.4%
Under 2.5
85.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Laci over/under 0.5 2H
Over
49.9%
Under
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 1.5 2H
Over
15.0%
Under
85.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laci over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 0.5 2H
Over
45.0%
Under
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.8%
Under
88.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vllaznia Shkodër over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 1.5 HT goals
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (24)
€7m
DT (27)
€7m
TD (22)
€6m
PAR (29)
€5m
AE (25)
€5m
TIR (20)
€5m
VS (23)
€4m
SK (27)
€4m
VOR (25)
€4m
LAC (22)
€3m
Laci's squad is €1m less valuable than Vllaznia Shkodër's (€3m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
PAR (13)
€2m
TD (9)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
TIR (7)
€2m
ER (6)
€2m
VOR (10)
€2m
SK (9)
€2m
LAC (6)
€1m
VS (6)
€1m
Laci and Vllaznia Shkodër have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (5)
€2m
ER (5)
€1m
VS (7)
€1m
TIR (5)
€1m
AE (5)
€1m
LAC (6)
€1m
TD (4)
€1m
PAR (5)
€1m
SK (6)
€1m
VOR (4)
€1m
Laci and Vllaznia Shkodër have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ER (13)
€3m
TD (9)
€3m
VS (10)
€3m
TIR (8)
€2m
DT (11)
€2m
AE (10)
€2m
PAR (11)
€2m
SK (12)
€2m
LAC (10)
€1m
VOR (11)
€1m
Laci's defence is €1m less valuable than Vllaznia Shkodër's (€1m vs €3m).
Albania: Superliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: Superliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Teuta Durrës
Dinamo Tirana
Vora
AF Elbasani
Skenderbeu Korce
Partizani
Tirana