Larne’s recent win over Lincoln Red Imps FC gives the home side a bright start, while Bangor’s four-match losing streak leaves them vulnerable on the road. The model therefore names a home win as the clear favourite, assigning it a 64 % chance. This preference reflects Larne’s solid home form, scoring an average of 1.2 goals and conceding only 0.8 against similarly matched opponents, versus Bangor’s weaker away record of 0.92 scored and 1.92 conceded. The expected total of 2.8 goals suggests a modestly open game, with the most likely scoreline 2-0, a 11.9 % probability. The probabilities for a draw and an away win are 23 % and 14 % respectively. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.2 %), Under 6.5 (97.5 %), Under 5.5 (93.4 %), Home over 0.5 goals (86.3 %), Home or Draw (86.3 %), Home +2 handicap (95.6 %), Away under 3.5 goals (99.0 %), and Away under 2.5 goals (94.9 %). Each selection carries its own percentage, with edge percentages noted where provided.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Larne win
63.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bangor win
13.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Larne
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.03
1.60
1.20
1.60
0.87
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
4.50
0.00
4.00
0.00
5.00
vs Similar (17)
1.12
0.65
1.00
0.90
1.29
0.29
vs Weaker (11)
2.64
1.00
3.50
1.25
2.14
0.86
Clean sheet %
50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Bangor) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bangor
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.87
0.67
2.00
0.93
1.73
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
2.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (26)
0.81
1.77
0.71
2.07
0.92
1.42
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Larne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
78.2%
Under 1.5
21.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
53.5%
Under 2.5
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
31.2%
Under 3.5
68.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
49.4%
No
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.9%
1-0
11.0%
1-1
10.8%
2-1
9.8%
3-0
7.9%
0-0
7.0%
3-1
6.5%
1-2
4.0%
Larne goals ↓
Bangor goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.0%
3.9%
2.0%
0.6%
0.1%
1
11%
11%
4.0%
1.1%
0.2%
2
12%
9.8%
4.0%
1.1%
0.2%
3
7.9%
6.5%
2.7%
0.7%
0.1%
4
4.0%
3.3%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Larne goals (down), columns = Bangor goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Larne
2.18
Coleraine FC
2.11
Glentoran
2.03
Linfield
1.77
Cliftonville FC
1.36
Carrick Rangers
1.36
Dungannon Swifts
1.27
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.03
Ballymena United
1.03
Crusaders FC
0.97
Limavady United
0.96
Larne is 1.16 points better than Bangor in terms of average points per game (2.18 vs 1.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Coleraine FC
2.18
Larne
1.92
Glentoran
1.92
Carrick Rangers
1.67
Linfield
1.64
Cliftonville FC
1.44
Crusaders FC
1.30
Ballymena United
1.21
Dungannon Swifts
1.17
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.08
Limavady United
1.02
Larne is 0.84 goals better than Bangor in terms of goals scored per game (1.92 vs 1.08).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.68
Linfield
0.87
Coleraine FC
0.97
Glentoran
1.00
Ballymena United
1.53
Cliftonville FC
1.56
Carrick Rangers
1.56
Bangor
1.71
Portadown
1.74
Dungannon Swifts
2.00
Crusaders FC
2.12
Limavady United
2.22
Larne is 1.03 goals better than Bangor in terms of goals conceded per game (0.68 vs 1.71).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Larne or Draw
86.4%
Avg Implied -
64%
23%
14%
covers Larne + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Larne or Bangor
77.5%
Avg Implied -
64%
23%
14%
covers Larne + Bangor
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Bangor
36.1%
Avg Implied -
64%
23%
14%
covers Draw + Bangor
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Larne over/under 0.5
Over
86.4%
Under
13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 1.5
Over
59.3%
Under
40.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 2.5
Over
32.3%
Under
67.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 3.5
Over
14.2%
Under
85.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bangor over/under 0.5
Over
56.0%
Under
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bangor over/under 1.5
Over
19.9%
Under
80.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bangor over/under 2.5
Over
5.0%
Under
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bangor over/under 3.5
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Larne, so a minus line means Larne give that many goals of a start and Bangor receive them. At -1, Larne must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Larne win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Larne)
Larne -2
20.2%
Draw -2
19.9%
Bangor +2
59.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Larne)
Larne -1
40.1%
Draw -1
23.8%
Bangor +1
36.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Larne)
Larne +1
86.4%
Draw +1
9.2%
Bangor -1
4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Larne)
Larne +2
95.6%
Draw +2
3.4%
Bangor -2
1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Larne
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.43
0.73
0.40
0.67
0.47
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (17)
0.41
0.18
0.40
0.20
0.43
0.14
vs Weaker (11)
1.27
0.64
1.75
0.75
1.00
0.57
Clean sheet %
70% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Bangor) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bangor
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.93
0.20
0.93
0.53
0.93
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (26)
0.38
0.92
0.21
1.00
0.58
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Larne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.4%
Under 0.5
22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
40.6%
Under 1.5
59.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.2%
Under 2.5
84.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Larne over/under 0.5 HT
Over
71.3%
Under
28.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 1.5 HT
Over
30.1%
Under
69.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 2.5 HT
Over
8.7%
Under
91.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bangor over/under 0.5 HT
Over
24.2%
Under
75.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bangor over/under 1.5 HT
Over
4.2%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bangor over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Larne
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.60
0.87
0.80
0.93
0.40
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (17)
0.71
0.47
0.60
0.70
0.86
0.14
vs Weaker (11)
1.36
0.36
1.75
0.50
1.14
0.29
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Bangor) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bangor
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.93
0.47
1.07
0.40
0.80
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (26)
0.42
0.85
0.50
1.07
0.33
0.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Larne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
83.5%
Under 0.5
16.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
51.4%
Under 1.5
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
25.5%
Under 2.5
74.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Larne over/under 0.5 2H
Over
76.3%
Under
23.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 1.5 2H
Over
39.5%
Under
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 2.5 2H
Over
14.3%
Under
85.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bangor over/under 0.5 2H
Over
30.2%
Under
69.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bangor over/under 1.5 2H
Over
5.6%
Under
94.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bangor over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 2H goals
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 0.5 HT goals
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 HT goals
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Larne · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Chris Gallagher20%
Tomas Cosgrove20%
Cian Bolger0%
Rohan Ferguson0%
Shaun Want0%
Joe Thomson0%
Andy Ryan0%
Sam Todd0%
Mark Randall0%
Levi Ives0%
Sean Graham0%
Aaron Donnelly0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Conor McKendry0%
Matthew Lusty0%
Dylan Sloan0%
Benji Magee0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sean Graham60%
Tomas Cosgrove40%
Cian Bolger25%
Andy Ryan20%
Sam Todd20%
Levi Ives20%
Chris Gallagher20%
Rohan Ferguson17%
Shaun Want17%
Mark Randall17%
Joe Thomson0%
Aaron Donnelly0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Conor McKendry0%
Matthew Lusty0%
Dylan Sloan0%
Benji Magee0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sean Graham20%
Joe Thomson17%
Cian Bolger0%
Rohan Ferguson0%
Shaun Want0%
Andy Ryan0%
Sam Todd0%
Mark Randall0%
Levi Ives0%
Chris Gallagher0%
Aaron Donnelly0%
Tomas Cosgrove0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Conor McKendry0%
Matthew Lusty0%
Dylan Sloan0%
Benji Magee0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Andy Ryan20%
Cian Bolger0%
Rohan Ferguson0%
Shaun Want0%
Joe Thomson0%
Sam Todd0%
Mark Randall0%
Levi Ives0%
Sean Graham0%
Chris Gallagher0%
Aaron Donnelly0%
Tomas Cosgrove0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Conor McKendry0%
Matthew Lusty0%
Dylan Sloan0%
Benji Magee0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
BAN (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
CF (18)
€1m
LU (5)
€0m
Larne's squad is €1m more valuable than Bangor's (€4m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
POR (6)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
BAN (4)
€0m
LU (1)
€0m
Larne and Bangor have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
BAN (5)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
POR (3)
€0m
LU (2)
€0m
Larne and Bangor have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
BAN (11)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
LU (2)
€0m
Larne and Bangor have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Coleraine FC
Carrick Rangers
Dungannon Swifts
Crusaders FC
Linfield
Glentoran
Cliftonville FC
Ballymena United
Limavady United
Portadown