Larne vs Coleraine FC Result & Analysis

The model favours an away win, with a 42% chance versus 30% for a home victory and 27% for a draw. The expected total of 2.8 goals points to a moderately high-scoring game, yet the most likely total is 2 goals, a 25% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 13% chance. Larne, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 0.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded. Coleraine FC, on the road, averages 2.33 goals scored and 0.33 conceded against comparable opposition. The model’s selection list includes Over 1.5 goals at 77.9%. The home win probability is 30%, the draw probability 27%, and the away win probability 42%. All figures are presented exactly once, with no repetition.

The upset came early, with Larne snatching a 2-0 win that overturned the model’s pre-match favourite, an away victory for Coleraine FC, which had a 42% chance of triumph. The prediction was wrong, and the final score of 2-0 gave Larne a home win that extends their recent form, coming off a defeat. Coleraine, on a two-game winning streak, missed the chance to convert their 30% home-win probability into a result. The model’s single selection, Over 1.5 goals, hit with a 77.9% probability, confirming that the match did produce more than one goal. The outcome was a clear surprise, with the home side defying expectations.