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Larne vs Coleraine FC Result & Analysis

Date: 17/11/2023
Time: 20:00
Final 2-0
Larne
Larne
Vs
63%
23%
14%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Coleraine FC
Coleraine FC
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Larne are the clear favourites, with the model giving them a 63% chance of victory, a 23% chance of a draw and only 14% for Coleraine FC. The prediction of a home win is driven by Larne’s strong home form, scoring 1.43 and conceding just 1.0 goals against similar opposition, while Coleraine’s away numbers are weaker, with 1.25 scored and 1.92 conceded. The expected total of 2.8 goals points to a moderately high scoring game, and the most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 11.6% probability. Larne’s recent run of LWDDD, ending with a 0-2 loss to Lincoln Red Imps FC, suggests they are still finding rhythm, but the model still favours them. Coleraine, on a two-game winning streak and having beaten Portadown 3-0, shows a bright side away from home. The single suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals, with a 78.4% chance of success. The match is expected to end with Larne winning, 2-0.

Results analysis

The Pythia model’s prediction was spot on, as Larne secured a 2-0 victory over Coleraine FC, extending their recent run of results. The model had chosen a home win with a 63% probability, and the outcome matched that forecast. The over 1.5 goals selection, with a 78.4% chance, also hit, as the match produced two goals. The most likely scoreline of 2-0 was indeed the result, and the 2-goal total was the most probable outcome. Larne’s home form had been shaky, yet they turned a recent defeat into a clean-sheet win, while Coleraine, despite a two-game winning streak away, fell short. The model’s picks proved accurate across the board.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Larne win✓ Hit
63.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC win✗ Miss
14.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

LarneLarne

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W41W01L40W11D00D20W21W21W21WH·LIN15/09H·CAR22/09A·LOU26/09A·GLE30/09H·CRU06/10A·DUN13/10H·CAR20/10A·NEW28/10H·CLI03/11A·LIN11/11
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.670.902.070.931.310.88
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.061.061.431.000.781.11
vs Weaker (14)2.360.712.710.862.000.57
Clean sheet %47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Coleraine FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Coleraine FCColeraine FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-531W21W05L04L41W20W13L12L20W00DH·NEW16/09A·GLE22/09A·CLI26/09H·CRU30/09H·GLE07/10A·NEW13/10A·BAL21/10H·CLI28/10A·CRU04/11H·GLE13/11
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.531.431.141.191.88
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)1.051.670.781.331.251.92
vs Weaker (9)1.891.222.600.801.001.75
Clean sheet %27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Larne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%25%7%015%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.4%
Under 1.5
21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
53.8%
Under 2.5
46.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.5%
Under 3.5
68.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.2%
No
49.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0 ✓
11.6%
1-1
10.9%
1-0
10.7%
2-1
9.8%
3-0
7.7%
0-0
6.9%
3-1
6.5%
1-2
4.2%
Larne goals ↓
Coleraine FC goals →
01234
06.9%4.0%2.1%0.6%0.1%
111%11%4.2%1.2%0.2%
212%9.8%4.1%1.2%0.2%
37.7%6.5%2.8%0.8%0.2%
43.8%3.2%1.4%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Larne goals (down), columns = Coleraine FC goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Larne
2.37
Linfield
2.24
Cliftonville FC
1.97
Crusaders FC
1.75
Glentoran
1.54
Institute
1.50
Carrick Rangers
1.28
Dungannon Swifts
1.24
Coleraine FC
1.23
Loughgall
1.18
Glenavon FC
0.97
Ballymena United
0.78
Newry City AFC
0.45
Larne is 1.14 points better than Coleraine FC in terms of average points per game (2.37 vs 1.23).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Larne
2.24
Linfield
2.16
Cliftonville FC
2.11
Glentoran
1.90
Dungannon Swifts
1.68
Crusaders FC
1.68
Loughgall
1.58
Carrick Rangers
1.41
Coleraine FC
1.30
Glenavon FC
1.18
Ballymena United
0.78
Newry City AFC
0.68
Institute
0.50
Larne is 0.94 goals better than Coleraine FC in terms of goals scored per game (2.24 vs 1.30).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.55
Institute
1.00
Linfield
1.05
Cliftonville FC
1.13
Crusaders FC
1.15
Glentoran
1.18
Ballymena United
1.77
Loughgall
1.79
Coleraine FC
1.80
Dungannon Swifts
1.82
Glenavon FC
1.84
Carrick Rangers
1.92
Newry City AFC
2.61
Larne is 1.25 goals better than Coleraine FC in terms of goals conceded per game (0.55 vs 1.80).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

LarneLarne

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W30W00D00D00D00D10W00D20W11DH·LIN15/09H·CAR22/09A·LOU26/09A·GLE30/09H·CRU06/10A·DUN13/10H·CAR20/10A·NEW28/10H·CLI03/11A·LIN11/11
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.301.070.290.310.31
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.560.500.860.430.330.56
vs Weaker (14)0.790.071.290.140.290.00
Clean sheet %77% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Coleraine FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Coleraine FCColeraine FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-110W01L01L01L11D10W00D00D00D00DH·NEW16/09A·GLE22/09A·CLI26/09H·CRU30/09H·GLE07/10A·NEW13/10A·BAL21/10H·CLI28/10A·CRU04/11H·GLE13/11
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.630.500.430.440.81
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)0.290.670.110.330.420.92
vs Weaker (9)0.890.561.200.600.500.50
Clean sheet %50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Larne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Larne over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

LarneLarne

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W11D01L40W11D00D10W21W01L10WH·LIN15/09H·CAR22/09A·LOU26/09A·GLE30/09H·CRU06/10A·DUN13/10H·CAR20/10A·NEW28/10H·CLI03/11A·LIN11/11
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.601.000.641.000.56
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.500.560.570.570.440.56
vs Weaker (14)1.570.641.430.711.710.57
Clean sheet %60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Coleraine FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Coleraine FCColeraine FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W20W04L03L30W10W13L12L20W00DH·NEW16/09A·GLE22/09A·CLI26/09H·CRU30/09H·GLE07/10A·NEW13/10A·BAL21/10H·CLI28/10A·CRU04/11H·GLE13/11
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.900.930.710.751.06
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)0.761.000.671.000.831.00
vs Weaker (9)1.000.671.400.200.501.25
Clean sheet %53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Larne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Larne over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.578.4%-------✓ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

Larne · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Chris Gallagher20%
Tomas Cosgrove20%
Cian Bolger0%
Rohan Ferguson0%
Shaun Want0%
Joe Thomson0%
Andy Ryan0%
Sam Todd0%
Mark Randall0%
Levi Ives0%
Sean Graham0%
Aaron Donnelly0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Conor McKendry0%
Matthew Lusty0%
Dylan Sloan0%
Benji Magee0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sean Graham60%
Tomas Cosgrove40%
Cian Bolger25%
Andy Ryan20%
Sam Todd20%
Levi Ives20%
Chris Gallagher20%
Rohan Ferguson17%
Shaun Want17%
Mark Randall17%
Joe Thomson0%
Aaron Donnelly0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Conor McKendry0%
Matthew Lusty0%
Dylan Sloan0%
Benji Magee0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sean Graham20%
Joe Thomson17%
Cian Bolger0%
Rohan Ferguson0%
Shaun Want0%
Andy Ryan0%
Sam Todd0%
Mark Randall0%
Levi Ives0%
Chris Gallagher0%
Aaron Donnelly0%
Tomas Cosgrove0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Conor McKendry0%
Matthew Lusty0%
Dylan Sloan0%
Benji Magee0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Andy Ryan20%
Cian Bolger0%
Rohan Ferguson0%
Shaun Want0%
Joe Thomson0%
Sam Todd0%
Mark Randall0%
Levi Ives0%
Sean Graham0%
Chris Gallagher0%
Aaron Donnelly0%
Tomas Cosgrove0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Conor McKendry0%
Matthew Lusty0%
Dylan Sloan0%
Benji Magee0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
CF (18)
€1m
GF (13)
€1m
LOU (3)
€0m
Larne and Coleraine FC have a similar squad value (both €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
GF (3)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
Larne and Coleraine FC have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
GF (1)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
Larne and Coleraine FC have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
GF (9)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
LOU (2)
€0m
Larne and Coleraine FC have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
1
LAR wins
2
Draws
2
CF wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Larne vs Coleraine FC · H/A from LAR
DateH/AGameScore
19/08/23AColeraine FC Vs LAR0-0
29/04/23AColeraine FC Vs LAR3-0
25/03/23AColeraine FC Vs LAR0-0
25/11/22HLAR Vs Coleraine FC0-2
01/10/22HLAR Vs Coleraine FC2-0

LarneLarne

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/11/23ALinfield Vs LAR1-2
03/11/23HLAR Vs Cliftonville FC2-1
28/10/23ANewry City AFC Vs LAR1-2
20/10/23HLAR Vs Carrick Rangers2-0
13/10/23ADungannon Swifts Vs LAR0-0
06/10/23HLAR Vs Crusaders FC1-1
30/09/23AGlenavon FC Vs LAR0-4
26/09/23ALoughgall Vs LAR1-0
22/09/23HLAR Vs Carrick Rangers4-1
15/09/23HLAR Vs Linfield2-0

Coleraine FCColeraine FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/11/23HCF Vs Glentoran0-0
04/11/23ACrusaders FC Vs CF0-2
28/10/23HCF Vs Cliftonville FC1-2
21/10/23ABallymena United Vs CF3-1
13/10/23ANewry City AFC Vs CF0-2
07/10/23HCF Vs Glenavon FC4-1
30/09/23HCF Vs Crusaders FC0-4
26/09/23ACliftonville FC Vs CF5-0
22/09/23AGlentoran Vs CF1-2
16/09/23HCF Vs Newry City AFC3-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Larne
Larne
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 7 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWWW2.02
HomeWWDWW2.28
AwayLWDWW1.76
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %60%68%52%
AVG goals2.582.802.36
Over 1.5 %74%84%64%
Over 2.5 %52%52%52%
Over 3.5 %24%28%20%
Scored1.762.081.44
Conceded0.820.720.92
BTTS34%40%28%
Clean Sheet52%56%48%
Corners12.0014.0010.00
Cards5.006.503.50
Coleraine FC
Coleraine FC
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLWD1.48
HomeWLWLD1.80
AwayWLWLW1.16
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%52%32%
AVG goals2.562.522.60
Over 1.5 %76%68%84%
Over 2.5 %54%52%56%
Over 3.5 %30%36%24%
Scored1.341.601.08
Conceded1.220.921.52
BTTS42%40%44%
Clean Sheet40%52%28%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LarneLarne3890
71%
2.4
8521+64
2.8
79%
50%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1122.20.6
-
2LinfieldLinfield3885
68%
2.2
8240+42
3.2
87%
61%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0112.21.1
-
3Cliftonville FCCliftonville FC3875
61%
2.0
8043+37
3.2
87%
68%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1112.11.1
-
4Crusaders FCCrusaders FC4070
52%
1.8
6746+21
2.8
82%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.71.1
-
5GlentoranGlentoran3960
44%
1.5
7446+28
3.1
79%
67%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.91.2
-
6Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers3950
38%
1.3
5575-20
3.3
87%
64%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.41.9
-
7Coleraine FCColeraine FC4049
32%
1.2
5272-20
3.1
90%
62%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.31.8
-
8Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts3847
34%
1.2
6469-5
3.5
89%
71%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0111.71.8
-
9LoughgallLoughgall3845
34%
1.2
6068-8
3.4
84%
68%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.8
-
10Glenavon FCGlenavon FC3837
29%
1.0
4570-25
3.0
76%
58%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.8
-
11Ballymena UnitedBallymena United4031
22%
0.8
3171-40
2.5
68%
42%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.81.8
-
12Newry City AFCNewry City AFC3817
11%
0.4
2699-73
3.3
82%
63%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.6
-
13InstituteInstitute23
50%
1.5
12-1
1.5
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.0
-
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →

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