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Larne vs Dungannon Swifts Result & Analysis

Date: 18/11/2022
Time: 19:45
Final 2-1
Larne
Larne
Vs
89%
8%
3%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Dungannon Swifts
Dungannon Swifts
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Larne win✓ Hit
89.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
8.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts win✗ Miss
2.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

LarneLarne

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W10W20W20W40W42W04L41W40W50WA·POR17/09A·CAR23/09H·COL01/10A·NEW07/10H·CLI14/10A·LIN22/10A·GLE28/10H·CRU04/11H·DUN08/11A·POR12/11
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.060.622.430.291.780.89
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)1.431.001.500.251.332.00
vs Weaker (9)2.560.333.670.332.000.33
Clean sheet %62% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Dungannon Swifts) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L20W01L05L03L11D02L13L04L02LA·NEW16/09H·POR23/09H·LIN01/10A·GLE08/10A·CAR15/10H·BAL21/10H·CRU29/10A·GLE05/11A·LAR08/11H·CLI12/11
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.472.600.381.750.573.57
vs Stronger (4)0.252.250.001.000.503.50
vs Similar (11)0.552.730.502.000.603.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %7% (-23pp vs league)
This opponent (Larne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%2%06%115%219%320%416%522%6+
The model estimates around 4.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
91.7%
Under 1.5
8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
77.2%
Under 2.5
22.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
58.0%
Under 3.5
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
42.9%
No
57.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-0
12.2%
4-0
10.7%
2-0
10.5%
5-0
7.5%
3-1
7.1%
4-1
6.2%
2-1 ✓
6.1%
1-0
5.7%
Larne goals ↓
Dungannon Swifts goals →
01234
02.1%0.6%0.3%0.1%0.0%
15.7%3.8%1.0%0.2%0.0%
211%6.1%1.8%0.3%0.0%
312%7.1%2.0%0.4%0.1%
411%6.2%1.8%0.3%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Larne goals (down), columns = Dungannon Swifts goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Larne
2.18
Linfield
2.03
Glentoran
2.00
Cliftonville FC
1.77
Crusaders FC
1.76
Coleraine FC
1.59
Annagh United
1.50
Glenavon FC
1.33
Carrick Rangers
1.05
Ballymena United
1.03
Dungannon Swifts
0.82
Newry City AFC
0.71
Portadown
0.68
Larne is 1.36 points better than Dungannon Swifts in terms of average points per game (2.18 vs 0.82).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Glentoran
2.10
Linfield
1.97
Crusaders FC
1.89
Cliftonville FC
1.70
Larne
1.68
Coleraine FC
1.54
Glenavon FC
1.49
Carrick Rangers
1.18
Annagh United
1.00
Ballymena United
0.97
Newry City AFC
0.92
Portadown
0.84
Dungannon Swifts
0.78
Larne is 0.91 goals better than Dungannon Swifts in terms of goals scored per game (1.68 vs 0.78).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.58
Glentoran
0.70
Linfield
0.71
Coleraine FC
1.05
Crusaders FC
1.18
Cliftonville FC
1.40
Ballymena United
1.45
Annagh United
1.50
Glenavon FC
1.69
Carrick Rangers
1.95
Newry City AFC
1.95
Dungannon Swifts
2.15
Portadown
2.26
Larne is 1.57 goals better than Dungannon Swifts in terms of goals conceded per game (0.58 vs 2.15).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

LarneLarne

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W00D10W00D10W21W01L40W20W20WA·POR17/09A·CAR23/09H·COL01/10A·NEW07/10H·CLI14/10A·LIN22/10A·GLE28/10H·CRU04/11H·DUN08/11A·POR12/11
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.940.191.290.000.670.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)0.570.290.500.000.670.67
vs Weaker (9)1.220.112.330.000.670.17
Clean sheet %81% (+52pp vs league)
This opponent (Dungannon Swifts) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W01L00D01L11D01L11D02L01LA·NEW16/09H·POR23/09H·LIN01/10A·GLE08/10A·CAR15/10H·BAL21/10H·CRU29/10A·GLE05/11A·LAR08/11H·CLI12/11
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.331.070.251.000.431.14
vs Stronger (4)0.251.000.000.500.501.50
vs Similar (11)0.361.090.331.170.401.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Larne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Larne over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

LarneLarne

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W10W20W30W21W03L01L20W30WA·POR17/09A·CAR23/09H·COL01/10A·NEW07/10H·CLI14/10A·LIN22/10A·GLE28/10H·CRU04/11H·DUN08/11A·POR12/11
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.120.441.140.291.110.56
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)0.860.711.000.250.671.33
vs Weaker (9)1.330.221.330.331.330.17
Clean sheet %69% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Dungannon Swifts) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L10W00D05L02L00D01L02L02L01LA·NEW16/09H·POR23/09H·LIN01/10A·GLE08/10A·CAR15/10H·BAL21/10H·CRU29/10A·GLE05/11A·LAR08/11H·CLI12/11
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.131.530.120.750.142.43
vs Stronger (4)0.001.250.000.500.002.00
vs Similar (11)0.181.640.170.830.202.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Larne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Larne over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.591.7%-------✓ Hit
Home win89.3%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.577.2%-------✓ Hit

ðŸŽ― 13. Player market rates

Larne · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Chris Gallagher20%
Tomas Cosgrove20%
Cian Bolger0%
Rohan Ferguson0%
Shaun Want0%
Joe Thomson0%
Andy Ryan0%
Sam Todd0%
Mark Randall0%
Levi Ives0%
Sean Graham0%
Aaron Donnelly0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Conor McKendry0%
Matthew Lusty0%
Dylan Sloan0%
Benji Magee0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sean Graham60%
Tomas Cosgrove40%
Cian Bolger25%
Andy Ryan20%
Sam Todd20%
Levi Ives20%
Chris Gallagher20%
Rohan Ferguson17%
Shaun Want17%
Mark Randall17%
Joe Thomson0%
Aaron Donnelly0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Conor McKendry0%
Matthew Lusty0%
Dylan Sloan0%
Benji Magee0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sean Graham20%
Joe Thomson17%
Cian Bolger0%
Rohan Ferguson0%
Shaun Want0%
Andy Ryan0%
Sam Todd0%
Mark Randall0%
Levi Ives0%
Chris Gallagher0%
Aaron Donnelly0%
Tomas Cosgrove0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Conor McKendry0%
Matthew Lusty0%
Dylan Sloan0%
Benji Magee0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Andy Ryan20%
Cian Bolger0%
Rohan Ferguson0%
Shaun Want0%
Joe Thomson0%
Sam Todd0%
Mark Randall0%
Levi Ives0%
Sean Graham0%
Chris Gallagher0%
Aaron Donnelly0%
Tomas Cosgrove0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Conor McKendry0%
Matthew Lusty0%
Dylan Sloan0%
Benji Magee0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
CF (18)
€1m
GF (13)
€1m
Larne and Dungannon Swifts have a similar squad value (both €4m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
POR (6)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
GF (3)
€0m
Larne and Dungannon Swifts have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
POR (3)
€0m
GF (1)
€0m
Larne and Dungannon Swifts have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
GF (9)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
Larne and Dungannon Swifts have a similar defence value (both €2m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
LAR wins
0
Draws
0
DS wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Larne vs Dungannon Swifts · H/A from LAR
DateH/AGameScore
08/11/22HLAR Vs Dungannon Swifts4-0

LarneLarne

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/11/22APortadown Vs LAR0-5
08/11/22HLAR Vs Dungannon Swifts4-0
04/11/22HLAR Vs Crusaders FC4-1
28/10/22AGlentoran Vs LAR4-0
22/10/22ALinfield Vs LAR2-4
14/10/22HLAR Vs Cliftonville FC4-0
07/10/22ANewry City AFC Vs LAR0-2
01/10/22HLAR Vs Coleraine FC2-0
23/09/22ACarrick Rangers Vs LAR0-1
17/09/22APortadown Vs LAR0-1

Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/11/22HDS Vs Cliftonville FC0-2
08/11/22ALarne Vs DS4-0
05/11/22AGlentoran Vs DS3-1
29/10/22HDS Vs Crusaders FC0-2
21/10/22HDS Vs Ballymena United1-1
15/10/22ACarrick Rangers Vs DS3-0
08/10/22AGlenavon FC Vs DS5-0
01/10/22HDS Vs Linfield0-1
23/09/22HDS Vs Portadown2-0
16/09/22ANewry City AFC Vs DS1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Larne
Larne
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 9 Wins / 0 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWW2.25
HomeWWWWW2.29
AwayWWWLW2.22
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %69%71%67%
AVG goals2.692.712.67
Over 1.5 %69%71%67%
Over 2.5 %50%57%44%
Over 3.5 %38%43%33%
Scored2.062.431.78
Conceded0.620.290.89
BTTS25%14%33%
Clean Sheet62%71%56%
Corners9.009.00-
Cards2.002.00-
Dungannon Swifts
Dungannon Swifts
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 1 Wins / 1 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLLL0.27
HomeWLDLL0.50
AwayLLLLL0.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %7%12%0%
AVG goals3.072.124.14
Over 1.5 %80%75%86%
Over 2.5 %47%12%86%
Over 3.5 %40%12%71%
Scored0.470.380.57
Conceded2.601.753.57
BTTS27%12%43%
Clean Sheet7%12%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LarneLarne3883
66%
2.2
6422+42
2.3
68%
42%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.70.6
-
2GlentoranGlentoran4080
62%
2.0
8428+56
2.8
75%
57%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.10.7
-
3LinfieldLinfield3877
61%
2.0
7527+48
2.7
71%
50%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0112.00.7
-
4Cliftonville FCCliftonville FC4071
52%
1.8
6856+12
3.1
80%
68%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.71.4
-
5Crusaders FCCrusaders FC3867
50%
1.8
7245+27
3.1
84%
66%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.91.2
-
6Coleraine FCColeraine FC3962
46%
1.6
6041+19
2.6
74%
51%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.51.1
-
7Glenavon FCGlenavon FC3952
36%
1.3
5866-8
3.2
77%
64%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.51.7
-
8Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers3840
32%
1.1
4574-29
3.1
76%
55%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.21.9
-
9Ballymena UnitedBallymena United3839
29%
1.0
3755-18
2.4
68%
45%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.01.4
-
10Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts4033
25%
0.8
3186-55
2.9
85%
52%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0110.82.1
-
11Newry City AFCNewry City AFC3827
21%
0.7
3574-39
2.9
79%
53%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.9
-
12PortadownPortadown3826
18%
0.7
3286-54
3.1
82%
61%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1010.82.3
-
13Annagh UnitedAnnagh United23
50%
1.5
23-1
2.5
100%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.5
-
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →

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