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Larne vs Dungannon Swifts Result & Analysis

Date: 25/04/2026
Time: 16:30
Final 8-0
Larne
Larne
Vs
66%
22%
12%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Dungannon Swifts
Dungannon Swifts
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Larne’s recent win over Lincoln Red Imps FC fuels the model’s confidence that they will finish the match at home. The prediction engine rates a home win at 66 %, a draw 22 % and an away win 12 %, making the home victory the clear favourite. The model’s pick is a 2-0 scoreline, the most likely result at 12.7 %. With an expected total of 2.8 goals, the average goal count leans toward a 2-goal match, matching the most likely total of 2 goals at 25 %. Larne’s home form shows they average 2.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against weaker opposition, while Dungannon Swifts, playing away against a stronger side, average only 0.5 scored and 3.25 conceded. The model’s single suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals at 77.7 %. The probabilities for the match outcomes are 66 % for a home win, 22 % for a draw and 12 % for an away win.

Results analysis

Larne’s recent win over Lincoln Red Imps FC keeps the momentum flowing as they host Dungannon Swifts, who are on a two-game winning run. The model predicted a home win with a 66 % probability, and that call proved correct as Larne secured an 8-0 victory, the largest margin of the match. The favourite’s selection was right, and the single suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals, hit with a 77.7 % chance. The final score of 8-0 far exceeded the expected total of 2.8 goals and the most likely 2-goal outcome, confirming the model’s confidence in a dominant home performance.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Larne win✓ Hit
66.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts win✗ Miss
11.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

LarneLarne

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L23L11D20W21W30W20W14L20W00DA·POR14/02H·CAR20/02H·LIN24/02A·BAL28/02H·DUN13/03A·GLE20/03H·CLI28/03H·COL07/04A·LIN11/04A·GLE17/04
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.700.801.600.931.800.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.440.691.300.901.670.33
vs Weaker (14)2.000.932.201.001.890.89
Clean sheet %50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Dungannon Swifts) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-532W14L01L31W12L01L12L13L05L01LH·CLI13/02H·LIN17/02A·POR21/02H·COL28/02A·LAR13/03H·BAN21/03H·COL28/03H·LIN07/04A·GLE11/04A·CLI18/04
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.771.691.310.792.29
vs Stronger (10)1.002.501.332.000.503.25
vs Similar (20)1.401.401.900.900.901.90
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Larne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%19%25%7%015%125%222%316%49%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.7%
Under 1.5
22.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.9%
Under 2.5
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
30.7%
Under 3.5
69.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.1%
No
52.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.7%
1-0
11.5%
1-1
10.4%
2-1
9.6%
3-0
8.6%
0-0
7.1%
3-1
6.5%
4-0
4.4%
Larne goals ↓
Dungannon Swifts goals →
01234
07.1%3.7%1.8%0.4%0.1%
112%10%3.6%0.9%0.2%
213%9.6%3.6%0.9%0.2%
38.6%6.5%2.5%0.6%0.1%
44.4%3.3%1.3%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Larne goals (down), columns = Dungannon Swifts goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Larne
2.18
Coleraine FC
2.11
Glentoran
2.03
Linfield
1.77
Annagh United
1.50
Carrick Rangers
1.36
Cliftonville FC
1.36
Dungannon Swifts
1.27
Portadown
1.16
Ballymena United
1.03
Bangor
1.03
Crusaders FC
0.97
Glenavon FC
0.74
Larne is 0.92 points better than Dungannon Swifts in terms of average points per game (2.18 vs 1.27).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Coleraine FC
2.18
Annagh United
2.00
Glentoran
1.92
Larne
1.92
Carrick Rangers
1.67
Linfield
1.64
Cliftonville FC
1.44
Crusaders FC
1.30
Ballymena United
1.21
Dungannon Swifts
1.17
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.08
Glenavon FC
0.97
Larne is 0.75 goals better than Dungannon Swifts in terms of goals scored per game (1.92 vs 1.17).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.68
Linfield
0.87
Coleraine FC
0.97
Glentoran
1.00
Ballymena United
1.53
Carrick Rangers
1.56
Cliftonville FC
1.56
Bangor
1.71
Portadown
1.74
Glenavon FC
1.82
Dungannon Swifts
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Crusaders FC
2.12
Larne is 1.32 goals better than Dungannon Swifts in terms of goals conceded per game (0.68 vs 2.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

LarneLarne

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L03L10W20W20W00D10W11D10W00DA·POR14/02H·CAR20/02H·LIN24/02A·BAL28/02H·DUN13/03A·GLE20/03H·CLI28/03H·COL07/04A·LIN11/04A·GLE17/04
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.470.600.471.070.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.810.250.600.301.170.17
vs Weaker (14)0.860.710.600.801.000.67
Clean sheet %67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Dungannon Swifts) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D11D00D30W02L01L11D11D03L00DH·CLI13/02H·LIN17/02A·POR21/02H·COL28/02A·LAR13/03H·BAN21/03H·COL28/03H·LIN07/04A·GLE11/04A·CLI18/04
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.771.120.500.291.07
vs Stronger (10)0.501.200.830.830.001.75
vs Similar (20)0.850.551.300.300.400.80
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Larne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Larne over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

LarneLarne

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D20W01L00D01L30W10W03L10W00DA·POR14/02H·CAR20/02H·LIN24/02A·BAL28/02H·DUN13/03A·GLE20/03H·CLI28/03H·COL07/04A·LIN11/04A·GLE17/04
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.331.000.470.730.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.620.440.700.600.500.17
vs Weaker (14)1.140.211.600.200.890.22
Clean sheet %73% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Dungannon Swifts) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W03L01L01L10W00D01L02L02L01LH·CLI13/02H·LIN17/02A·POR21/02H·COL28/02A·LAR13/03H·BAN21/03H·COL28/03H·LIN07/04A·GLE11/04A·CLI18/04
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.531.000.560.810.501.21
vs Stronger (10)0.501.300.501.170.501.50
vs Similar (20)0.550.850.600.600.501.10
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Larne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Larne over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.577.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 13. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
Larne and Dungannon Swifts have a similar squad value (both €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
Larne and Dungannon Swifts have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
Larne and Dungannon Swifts have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
Larne and Dungannon Swifts have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 14. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
4
LAR wins
1
Draws
3
DS wins

Head-to-head

Larne vs Dungannon Swifts · H/A from LAR
DateH/AGameScore
13/03/26HLAR Vs Dungannon Swifts2-1
29/11/25ADungannon Swifts Vs LAR1-2
04/10/25ADungannon Swifts Vs LAR2-0
01/04/25ADungannon Swifts Vs LAR1-1
22/02/25HLAR Vs Dungannon Swifts0-1
23/12/24ADungannon Swifts Vs LAR0-1
06/10/24HLAR Vs Dungannon Swifts0-3
20/01/24ADungannon Swifts Vs LAR0-2

LarneLarne

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/04/26AGlentoran Vs LAR0-0
11/04/26ALinfield Vs LAR0-2
07/04/26HLAR Vs Coleraine FC1-4
28/03/26HLAR Vs Cliftonville FC2-0
20/03/26AGlenavon FC Vs LAR0-3
13/03/26HLAR Vs Dungannon Swifts2-1
28/02/26ABallymena United Vs LAR0-2
24/02/26HLAR Vs Linfield1-1
20/02/26HLAR Vs Carrick Rangers2-3
14/02/26APortadown Vs LAR2-1

Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/04/26ACliftonville FC Vs DS1-0
11/04/26AGlentoran Vs DS5-0
07/04/26HDS Vs Linfield1-3
28/03/26HDS Vs Coleraine FC1-2
21/03/26HDS Vs Bangor0-1
13/03/26ALarne Vs DS2-1
28/02/26HDS Vs Coleraine FC3-1
21/02/26APortadown Vs DS1-0
17/02/26HDS Vs Linfield1-4
13/02/26HDS Vs Cliftonville FC3-2

📊 15. Overall Statistics

Larne
Larne
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLWD1.96
HomeLDWWL1.96
AwayLWWWD1.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%54%54%
AVG goals2.342.292.38
Over 1.5 %74%71%77%
Over 2.5 %46%50%42%
Over 3.5 %20%21%19%
Scored1.561.541.58
Conceded0.780.750.81
BTTS44%38%50%
Clean Sheet50%58%42%
Corners---
Cards---
Dungannon Swifts
Dungannon Swifts
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 2 Wins / 0 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL1.32
HomeLWLLL1.54
AwayLLLLL1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%50%33%
AVG goals2.903.042.75
Over 1.5 %80%85%75%
Over 2.5 %52%62%42%
Over 3.5 %30%35%25%
Scored1.141.380.88
Conceded1.761.651.88
BTTS40%50%29%
Clean Sheet26%23%29%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 16. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LarneLarne3883
66%
2.2
7326+47
2.6
79%
47%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.90.7
-
2Coleraine FCColeraine FC3880
66%
2.1
8337+46
3.2
87%
61%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
3GlentoranGlentoran3877
61%
2.0
7338+35
2.9
79%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.0
-
4LinfieldLinfield3969
51%
1.8
6434+30
2.5
72%
49%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.60.9
-
5Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers3953
38%
1.4
6561+4
3.2
82%
62%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.6
-
6Cliftonville FCCliftonville FC3953
38%
1.4
5661-5
3.0
77%
59%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.41.6
-
7Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts4152
41%
1.3
4882-34
3.2
83%
59%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0111.22.0
-
8PortadownPortadown3844
34%
1.2
4466-22
2.9
82%
61%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
-
9Ballymena UnitedBallymena United3839
26%
1.0
4658-12
2.7
89%
47%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
10BangorBangor3839
26%
1.0
4165-24
2.8
79%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.7
-
11Crusaders FCCrusaders FC4039
28%
1.0
5285-33
3.4
85%
65%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.1
-
12Glenavon FCGlenavon FC3828
21%
0.7
3769-32
2.8
79%
58%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
13Annagh UnitedAnnagh United23
50%
1.5
44+0
4.0
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.02.0
-
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →

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