Larne’s recent win over Lincoln Red Imps FC fuels the model’s confidence that they will finish the match at home. The prediction engine rates a home win at 66 %, a draw 22 % and an away win 12 %, making the home victory the clear favourite. The model’s pick is a 2-0 scoreline, the most likely result at 12.7 %. With an expected total of 2.8 goals, the average goal count leans toward a 2-goal match, matching the most likely total of 2 goals at 25 %. Larne’s home form shows they average 2.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against weaker opposition, while Dungannon Swifts, playing away against a stronger side, average only 0.5 scored and 3.25 conceded. The model’s single suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals at 77.7 %. The probabilities for the match outcomes are 66 % for a home win, 22 % for a draw and 12 % for an away win.
Results analysis
Larne’s recent win over Lincoln Red Imps FC keeps the momentum flowing as they host Dungannon Swifts, who are on a two-game winning run. The model predicted a home win with a 66 % probability, and that call proved correct as Larne secured an 8-0 victory, the largest margin of the match. The favourite’s selection was right, and the single suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals, hit with a 77.7 % chance. The final score of 8-0 far exceeded the expected total of 2.8 goals and the most likely 2-goal outcome, confirming the model’s confidence in a dominant home performance.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Larne win✓ Hit
66.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts win✗ Miss
11.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Larne
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
0.80
1.60
0.93
1.80
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.44
0.69
1.30
0.90
1.67
0.33
vs Weaker (14)
2.00
0.93
2.20
1.00
1.89
0.89
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Dungannon Swifts) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dungannon Swifts
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.77
1.69
1.31
0.79
2.29
vs Stronger (10)
1.00
2.50
1.33
2.00
0.50
3.25
vs Similar (20)
1.40
1.40
1.90
0.90
0.90
1.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Larne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.7%
Under 1.5
22.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.9%
Under 2.5
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
30.7%
Under 3.5
69.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.1%
No
52.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.7%
1-0
11.5%
1-1
10.4%
2-1
9.6%
3-0
8.6%
0-0
7.1%
3-1
6.5%
4-0
4.4%
Larne goals ↓
Dungannon Swifts goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.1%
3.7%
1.8%
0.4%
0.1%
1
12%
10%
3.6%
0.9%
0.2%
2
13%
9.6%
3.6%
0.9%
0.2%
3
8.6%
6.5%
2.5%
0.6%
0.1%
4
4.4%
3.3%
1.3%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Larne goals (down), columns = Dungannon Swifts goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Larne
2.18
Coleraine FC
2.11
Glentoran
2.03
Linfield
1.77
Annagh United
1.50
Carrick Rangers
1.36
Cliftonville FC
1.36
Dungannon Swifts
1.27
Portadown
1.16
Ballymena United
1.03
Bangor
1.03
Crusaders FC
0.97
Glenavon FC
0.74
Larne is 0.92 points better than Dungannon Swifts in terms of average points per game (2.18 vs 1.27).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Coleraine FC
2.18
Annagh United
2.00
Glentoran
1.92
Larne
1.92
Carrick Rangers
1.67
Linfield
1.64
Cliftonville FC
1.44
Crusaders FC
1.30
Ballymena United
1.21
Dungannon Swifts
1.17
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.08
Glenavon FC
0.97
Larne is 0.75 goals better than Dungannon Swifts in terms of goals scored per game (1.92 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.68
Linfield
0.87
Coleraine FC
0.97
Glentoran
1.00
Ballymena United
1.53
Carrick Rangers
1.56
Cliftonville FC
1.56
Bangor
1.71
Portadown
1.74
Glenavon FC
1.82
Dungannon Swifts
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Crusaders FC
2.12
Larne is 1.32 goals better than Dungannon Swifts in terms of goals conceded per game (0.68 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Larne
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.47
0.60
0.47
1.07
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.81
0.25
0.60
0.30
1.17
0.17
vs Weaker (14)
0.86
0.71
0.60
0.80
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Dungannon Swifts) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dungannon Swifts
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.77
1.12
0.50
0.29
1.07
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
1.20
0.83
0.83
0.00
1.75
vs Similar (20)
0.85
0.55
1.30
0.30
0.40
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Larne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Larne over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Larne
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.33
1.00
0.47
0.73
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.44
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.17
vs Weaker (14)
1.14
0.21
1.60
0.20
0.89
0.22
Clean sheet %
73% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Dungannon Swifts) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dungannon Swifts
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.00
0.56
0.81
0.50
1.21
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
1.30
0.50
1.17
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (20)
0.55
0.85
0.60
0.60
0.50
1.10
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Larne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Larne over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
Larne and Dungannon Swifts have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
Larne and Dungannon Swifts have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
Larne and Dungannon Swifts have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
Larne and Dungannon Swifts have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →