Larne’s strong home form and Dungannon Swifts’ struggles on the road make a home win the clear favourite, with the model assigning a 73% chance to a victory. The average goals expected are 3.2, pointing to a fairly high-scoring encounter, yet the most likely total is three goals, a 22% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 2-0, with a 12% chance, reflecting Larne’s 4.0 average goals scored at home against weaker opposition and Dungannon’s 4.0 goals conceded away to stronger teams. The model’s pick is a home win, and the expected total of 3.2 goals supports that outcome. The probabilities for the match result are 73% for a home win, 18% for a draw, and 9% for an away win. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals at 99.2%, Under 7.5 at 98.3%, Home +2 handicap at 97.2%, Away under 2.5 goals at 95.6%, Under 6.5 at 95.5%, Home over 0.5 goals at 91.3%, Home or Draw at 90.9%, and Home +1 handicap also at 90.9%. The edge percentages are not provided for these selections.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Larne win
70.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
19.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts win
10.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Larne
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.03
1.60
1.20
1.60
0.87
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
4.50
0.00
4.00
0.00
5.00
vs Similar (17)
1.12
0.65
1.00
0.90
1.29
0.29
vs Weaker (11)
2.64
1.00
3.50
1.25
2.14
0.86
Clean sheet %
50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Dungannon Swifts) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dungannon Swifts
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
2.03
1.64
1.64
0.94
2.38
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
3.50
0.75
2.75
0.50
4.00
vs Similar (20)
1.60
1.30
2.00
1.20
1.20
1.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Larne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.6%
Under 1.5
17.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.3%
Under 2.5
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
37.9%
Under 3.5
62.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
51.0%
No
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.7%
2-1
9.6%
1-0
9.4%
1-1
9.1%
3-0
9.0%
3-1
7.3%
0-0
5.3%
4-0
5.2%
Larne goals ↓
Dungannon Swifts goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.3%
2.8%
1.5%
0.4%
0.1%
1
9.4%
9.1%
3.4%
0.9%
0.2%
2
12%
9.6%
3.9%
1.1%
0.2%
3
9.0%
7.3%
3.0%
0.8%
0.2%
4
5.2%
4.2%
1.7%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Larne goals (down), columns = Dungannon Swifts goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Larne
2.18
Coleraine FC
2.11
Glentoran
2.03
Linfield
1.77
Cliftonville FC
1.36
Carrick Rangers
1.36
Dungannon Swifts
1.27
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.03
Ballymena United
1.03
Crusaders FC
0.97
Limavady United
0.96
Larne is 0.92 points better than Dungannon Swifts in terms of average points per game (2.18 vs 1.27).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Coleraine FC
2.18
Larne
1.92
Glentoran
1.92
Carrick Rangers
1.67
Linfield
1.64
Cliftonville FC
1.44
Crusaders FC
1.30
Ballymena United
1.21
Dungannon Swifts
1.17
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.08
Limavady United
1.02
Larne is 0.75 goals better than Dungannon Swifts in terms of goals scored per game (1.92 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.68
Linfield
0.87
Coleraine FC
0.97
Glentoran
1.00
Ballymena United
1.53
Cliftonville FC
1.56
Carrick Rangers
1.56
Bangor
1.71
Portadown
1.74
Dungannon Swifts
2.00
Crusaders FC
2.12
Limavady United
2.22
Larne is 1.32 goals better than Dungannon Swifts in terms of goals conceded per game (0.68 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Larne or Draw
89.2%
Avg Implied -
70%
19%
11%
covers Larne + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Larne or Dungannon Swifts
80.8%
Avg Implied -
70%
19%
11%
covers Larne + Dungannon Swifts
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Dungannon Swifts
30.0%
Avg Implied -
70%
19%
11%
covers Draw + Dungannon Swifts
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Larne over/under 0.5
Over
90.0%
Under
10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 1.5
Over
67.0%
Under
33.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 2.5
Over
40.5%
Under
59.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 3.5
Over
20.1%
Under
79.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 0.5
Over
55.7%
Under
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 1.5
Over
19.6%
Under
80.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 2.5
Over
5.0%
Under
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 3.5
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Larne, so a minus line means Larne give that many goals of a start and Dungannon Swifts receive them. At -1, Larne must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Larne win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Larne)
Larne -2
26.6%
Draw -2
21.0%
Dungannon Swifts +2
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Larne)
Larne -1
47.6%
Draw -1
22.4%
Dungannon Swifts +1
30.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Larne)
Larne +1
89.2%
Draw +1
7.4%
Dungannon Swifts -1
3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Larne)
Larne +2
96.6%
Draw +2
2.6%
Dungannon Swifts -2
0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Larne
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.43
0.73
0.40
0.67
0.47
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (17)
0.41
0.18
0.40
0.20
0.43
0.14
vs Weaker (11)
1.27
0.64
1.75
0.75
1.00
0.57
Clean sheet %
70% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Dungannon Swifts) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dungannon Swifts
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.90
1.07
0.64
0.25
1.12
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
1.50
0.75
1.00
0.00
1.83
vs Similar (20)
0.80
0.60
1.20
0.50
0.40
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Larne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Larne over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Larne
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.60
0.87
0.80
0.93
0.40
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (17)
0.71
0.47
0.60
0.70
0.86
0.14
vs Weaker (11)
1.36
0.36
1.75
0.50
1.14
0.29
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Dungannon Swifts) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dungannon Swifts
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.13
0.57
1.00
0.69
1.25
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
2.00
0.00
1.75
0.50
2.17
vs Similar (20)
0.80
0.70
0.80
0.70
0.80
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Larne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Larne over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Larne · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Chris Gallagher20%
Tomas Cosgrove20%
Cian Bolger0%
Rohan Ferguson0%
Shaun Want0%
Joe Thomson0%
Andy Ryan0%
Sam Todd0%
Mark Randall0%
Levi Ives0%
Sean Graham0%
Aaron Donnelly0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Conor McKendry0%
Matthew Lusty0%
Dylan Sloan0%
Benji Magee0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sean Graham60%
Tomas Cosgrove40%
Cian Bolger25%
Andy Ryan20%
Sam Todd20%
Levi Ives20%
Chris Gallagher20%
Rohan Ferguson17%
Shaun Want17%
Mark Randall17%
Joe Thomson0%
Aaron Donnelly0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Conor McKendry0%
Matthew Lusty0%
Dylan Sloan0%
Benji Magee0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sean Graham20%
Joe Thomson17%
Cian Bolger0%
Rohan Ferguson0%
Shaun Want0%
Andy Ryan0%
Sam Todd0%
Mark Randall0%
Levi Ives0%
Chris Gallagher0%
Aaron Donnelly0%
Tomas Cosgrove0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Conor McKendry0%
Matthew Lusty0%
Dylan Sloan0%
Benji Magee0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Andy Ryan20%
Cian Bolger0%
Rohan Ferguson0%
Shaun Want0%
Joe Thomson0%
Sam Todd0%
Mark Randall0%
Levi Ives0%
Sean Graham0%
Chris Gallagher0%
Aaron Donnelly0%
Tomas Cosgrove0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Conor McKendry0%
Matthew Lusty0%
Dylan Sloan0%
Benji Magee0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
BAN (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
CF (18)
€1m
LU (5)
€0m
Larne and Dungannon Swifts have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
POR (6)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
BAN (4)
€0m
LU (1)
€0m
Larne and Dungannon Swifts have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
BAN (5)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
POR (3)
€0m
LU (2)
€0m
Larne and Dungannon Swifts have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
BAN (11)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
LU (2)
€0m
Larne and Dungannon Swifts have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Coleraine FC
Carrick Rangers
Crusaders FC
Linfield
Glentoran
Cliftonville FC
Ballymena United
Limavady United
Portadown
Bangor