PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Larne vs Linfield Result & Analysis

Date: 05/12/2025
Time: 19:45
Final 0-0
Larne
Larne
Vs
45%
32%
23%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Linfield
Linfield
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Larne win✗ Miss
44.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
32.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Linfield win✗ Miss
22.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

LarneLarne

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-440W20W02L20W11D20W30W21W21W21WH·CRU16/09H·CAR20/09A·DUN04/10A·CLI18/10H·BAN25/10A·BAL01/11H·POR07/11H·GLE21/11A·COL25/11A·DUN29/11
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.470.731.570.501.380.94
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)1.000.930.500.831.331.00
vs Weaker (15)1.930.532.380.251.430.86
Clean sheet %47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Linfield) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LinfieldLinfield

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W30W02L21W22D00D11D10W10W31WH·GLE20/09A·BAN26/09A·POR17/10H·BAL25/10A·COL28/10A·CLI02/11H·COL08/11A·BAN22/11H·CRU25/11H·CAR29/11
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.430.771.880.500.931.07
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.941.061.290.710.671.33
vs Weaker (14)2.000.432.330.331.400.60
Clean sheet %47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Larne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%15%024%128%218%39%44%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
60.9%
Under 1.5
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
32.6%
Under 2.5
67.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
14.4%
Under 3.5
85.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
39.8%
No
60.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
15.0%
0-0 ✓
14.7%
1-1
14.2%
2-0
9.9%
0-1
9.4%
2-1
7.9%
1-2
5.1%
0-2
4.2%
Larne goals ↓
Linfield goals →
01234
015%9.4%4.2%1.1%0.2%
115%14%5.1%1.4%0.3%
29.9%7.9%3.1%0.8%0.2%
34.0%3.2%1.3%0.3%0.1%
41.2%1.0%0.4%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Larne goals (down), columns = Linfield goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Larne
2.18
Coleraine FC
2.11
Glentoran
2.03
Linfield
1.77
Annagh United
1.50
Carrick Rangers
1.36
Cliftonville FC
1.36
Dungannon Swifts
1.27
Portadown
1.16
Ballymena United
1.03
Bangor
1.03
Crusaders FC
0.97
Glenavon FC
0.74
Larne is 0.41 points better than Linfield in terms of average points per game (2.18 vs 1.77).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Coleraine FC
2.18
Annagh United
2.00
Glentoran
1.92
Larne
1.92
Carrick Rangers
1.67
Linfield
1.64
Cliftonville FC
1.44
Crusaders FC
1.30
Ballymena United
1.21
Dungannon Swifts
1.17
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.08
Glenavon FC
0.97
Larne is 0.28 goals better than Linfield in terms of goals scored per game (1.92 vs 1.64).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.68
Linfield
0.87
Coleraine FC
0.97
Glentoran
1.00
Ballymena United
1.53
Carrick Rangers
1.56
Cliftonville FC
1.56
Bangor
1.71
Portadown
1.74
Glenavon FC
1.82
Dungannon Swifts
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Crusaders FC
2.12
Larne is 0.19 goals better than Linfield in terms of goals conceded per game (0.68 vs 0.87).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

LarneLarne

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W02L20W01L20W00D01L20W11DH·CRU16/09H·CAR20/09A·DUN04/10A·CLI18/10H·BAN25/10A·BAL01/11H·POR07/11H·GLE21/11A·COL25/11A·DUN29/11
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.470.360.430.690.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.400.530.000.670.670.44
vs Weaker (15)0.670.400.620.250.710.57
Clean sheet %63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Linfield) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LinfieldLinfield

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W20W00D10W20W00D00D00D10W10WH·GLE20/09A·BAN26/09A·POR17/10H·BAL25/10A·COL28/10A·CLI02/11H·COL08/11A·BAN22/11H·CRU25/11H·CAR29/11
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.300.880.250.570.36
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.750.501.140.570.440.44
vs Weaker (14)0.710.070.670.000.800.20
Clean sheet %73% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Larne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Larne over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

LarneLarne

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W10W00D00D10W00D30W20W01L10WH·CRU16/09H·CAR20/09A·DUN04/10A·CLI18/10H·BAN25/10A·BAL01/11H·POR07/11H·GLE21/11A·COL25/11A·DUN29/11
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.271.210.070.690.44
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.600.400.500.170.670.56
vs Weaker (15)1.270.131.750.000.710.29
Clean sheet %77% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Linfield) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LinfieldLinfield

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W02L11D02L00D11D10W00D21WH·GLE20/09A·BAN26/09A·POR17/10H·BAL25/10A·COL28/10A·CLI02/11H·COL08/11A·BAN22/11H·CRU25/11H·CAR29/11
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.471.000.250.360.71
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.190.560.140.140.220.89
vs Weaker (14)1.290.361.670.330.600.40
Clean sheet %67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Larne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Larne over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.585.6%-------✓ Hit

ðŸŽ― 13. Player market rates

Larne · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Chris Gallagher20%
Tomas Cosgrove20%
Cian Bolger0%
Rohan Ferguson0%
Shaun Want0%
Joe Thomson0%
Andy Ryan0%
Sam Todd0%
Mark Randall0%
Levi Ives0%
Sean Graham0%
Aaron Donnelly0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Conor McKendry0%
Matthew Lusty0%
Dylan Sloan0%
Benji Magee0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sean Graham60%
Tomas Cosgrove40%
Cian Bolger25%
Andy Ryan20%
Sam Todd20%
Levi Ives20%
Chris Gallagher20%
Rohan Ferguson17%
Shaun Want17%
Mark Randall17%
Joe Thomson0%
Aaron Donnelly0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Conor McKendry0%
Matthew Lusty0%
Dylan Sloan0%
Benji Magee0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sean Graham20%
Joe Thomson17%
Cian Bolger0%
Rohan Ferguson0%
Shaun Want0%
Andy Ryan0%
Sam Todd0%
Mark Randall0%
Levi Ives0%
Chris Gallagher0%
Aaron Donnelly0%
Tomas Cosgrove0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Conor McKendry0%
Matthew Lusty0%
Dylan Sloan0%
Benji Magee0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Andy Ryan20%
Cian Bolger0%
Rohan Ferguson0%
Shaun Want0%
Joe Thomson0%
Sam Todd0%
Mark Randall0%
Levi Ives0%
Sean Graham0%
Chris Gallagher0%
Aaron Donnelly0%
Tomas Cosgrove0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Conor McKendry0%
Matthew Lusty0%
Dylan Sloan0%
Benji Magee0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
BAN (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
CF (18)
€1m
GF (13)
€1m
Larne's squad is €1m more valuable than Linfield's (€4m vs €2m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
POR (6)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
BAN (4)
€0m
GF (3)
€0m
Larne and Linfield have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
BAN (5)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
POR (3)
€0m
GF (1)
€0m
Larne and Linfield have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
BAN (11)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
GF (9)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
Larne and Linfield have a similar defence value (both €2m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
4
LAR wins
2
Draws
2
LIN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Larne vs Linfield · H/A from LAR
DateH/AGameScore
18/04/25HLAR Vs Linfield2-1
11/02/25ALinfield Vs LAR1-0
16/11/24HLAR Vs Linfield0-1
14/09/24ALinfield Vs LAR0-1
22/04/24ALinfield Vs LAR1-1
30/12/23HLAR Vs Linfield1-1
11/11/23ALinfield Vs LAR1-2
15/09/23HLAR Vs Linfield2-0

LarneLarne

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/11/25ADungannon Swifts Vs LAR1-2
25/11/25AColeraine FC Vs LAR1-2
21/11/25HLAR Vs Glenavon FC2-1
07/11/25HLAR Vs Portadown3-0
01/11/25ABallymena United Vs LAR0-2
25/10/25HLAR Vs Bangor1-1
18/10/25ACliftonville FC Vs LAR0-2
04/10/25ADungannon Swifts Vs LAR2-0
20/09/25HLAR Vs Carrick Rangers2-0
16/09/25HLAR Vs Crusaders FC4-0

LinfieldLinfield

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/11/25HLIN Vs Carrick Rangers3-1
25/11/25HLIN Vs Crusaders FC1-0
22/11/25ABangor Vs LIN0-1
08/11/25HLIN Vs Coleraine FC1-1
02/11/25ACliftonville FC Vs LIN0-0
28/10/25AColeraine FC Vs LIN2-2
25/10/25HLIN Vs Ballymena United2-1
17/10/25APortadown Vs LIN2-0
26/09/25ABangor Vs LIN0-3
20/09/25HLIN Vs Glenavon FC2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Larne
Larne
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 8 Wins / 1 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW1.76
HomeWWDWW1.83
AwayLWWWW1.70
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%48%48%
AVG goals2.081.872.26
Over 1.5 %68%65%70%
Over 2.5 %34%30%37%
Over 3.5 %14%9%19%
Scored1.301.301.30
Conceded0.780.570.96
BTTS42%35%48%
Clean Sheet38%52%26%
Corners11.3311.0011.50
Cards5.333.006.50
Linfield
Linfield
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWWW2.02
HomeWWDWW2.52
AwayWLDDW1.43
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %62%81%39%
AVG goals2.242.332.13
Over 1.5 %70%81%57%
Over 2.5 %44%44%43%
Over 3.5 %16%7%26%
Scored1.521.781.22
Conceded0.720.560.91
BTTS38%37%39%
Clean Sheet48%56%39%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LarneLarne3883
66%
2.2
7326+47
2.6
79%
47%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.90.7
-
2Coleraine FCColeraine FC3880
66%
2.1
8337+46
3.2
87%
61%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.21.0
-
3GlentoranGlentoran3877
61%
2.0
7338+35
2.9
79%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.91.0
-
4LinfieldLinfield3969
51%
1.8
6434+30
2.5
72%
49%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.60.9
-
5Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers3953
38%
1.4
6561+4
3.2
82%
62%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.71.6
-
6Cliftonville FCCliftonville FC3953
38%
1.4
5661-5
3.0
77%
59%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.41.6
-
7Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts4152
41%
1.3
4882-34
3.2
83%
59%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0111.22.0
-
8PortadownPortadown3844
34%
1.2
4466-22
2.9
82%
61%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.21.7
-
9Ballymena UnitedBallymena United3839
26%
1.0
4658-12
2.7
89%
47%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.21.5
-
10BangorBangor3839
26%
1.0
4165-24
2.8
79%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.11.7
-
11Crusaders FCCrusaders FC4039
28%
1.0
5285-33
3.4
85%
65%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.32.1
-
12Glenavon FCGlenavon FC3828
21%
0.7
3769-32
2.8
79%
58%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.01.8
-
13Annagh UnitedAnnagh United23
50%
1.5
44+0
4.0
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.02.0
-
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →

← all matches