Las Palmas vs Malaga Result & Analysis

Las Palmas are favoured to win, with a 49 % chance of triumph, 27 % for a draw and 24 % for a Malaga victory. The model expects 2.7 goals on average, most likely a 2-goal total, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 13 % probability. Las Palmas, playing at home against a similarly-strengthened opponent, average 1.57 goals scored and 0.64 conceded, while Malaga, on the road, average 2.14 goals scored and 1.21 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 89.1 %, Over 19.5 fouls at 89.0 %, Over 21.5 fouls at 78.8 %, Under 11.5 corners at 76.3 %, Over 3.5 cards at 76.2 %, Over 1.5 at 76.1 % and Under 3.5 at 71.6 %. The home win probability is 49 %, the draw 27 % and the away win 24 %.

The upset was immediate: Malaga snatched a 1-0 win, ending Las Palmas’ two-game winning streak. The pre-match favourite, Home win, carried a 49 % probability, but the model’s call was wrong. The final score of 0-1 confirmed the away triumph. Among the model’s selections, Over 19.5 fouls hit, Over 21.5 fouls hit, Under 11.5 corners hit, and Under 3.5 hit, while Over 2.5 cards, Over 3.5 cards, and Over 1.5 missed. Each probability was expressed as a percentage: 89.1 %, 89.0 %, 78.8 %, 76.3 %, 76.2 %, 76.1 %, and 71.6 % respectively. The match delivered a clear reversal of expectations.