The match between Lausanne and Grasshoppers is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win but the odds are close: 40 % for Lausanne, 26 % for a draw and 34 % for Grasshoppers. The expected total goals sit at 3.0, yet the most likely total is two, with a 23 % chance. The single scoreline the model sees as most probable is 1-1, with a 12.1 % probability. Lausanne, playing at home against a similarly strong opponent, averages 1.27 goals scored and 1.82 conceded. Grasshoppers, on the road against a similar side, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.91 conceded. The suggested picks are: Over 1.5 fouls at 81.9 %, Over 19.5 fouls at 87.7 %, Over 21.5 fouls at 76.8 %, Over 2.5 cards at 87.2 %, and Over 3.5 cards at 73.0 %. The model’s selection of a home win is the most likely outcome.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Lausanne, failed to deliver as the match finished 1-1, a draw that left the model’s prediction wrong. The model had given the home side a 40 % chance of victory, a 26 % chance of a draw and a 34 % chance of Grasshoppers winning. The upset came after both sides had been on uneven runs, with Lausanne coming off a defeat and Grasshoppers after two straight losses. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 87.7 %, Over 2.5 cards hit at 87.2 %, Over 1.5 hit at 81.9 %, Over 21.5 fouls hit at 76.8 % and Over 3.5 cards hit at 73.0 %. The final score of 1-1 matched the most likely score of 1-1, which the model assigned a 12.1 % probability.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Lausanne win✗ Miss
40.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
26.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Grasshoppers win✗ Miss
33.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Lausanne
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.70
1.21
1.64
0.88
1.75
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.25
0.50
1.00
1.50
1.50
vs Similar (23)
1.00
1.78
1.27
1.82
0.75
1.75
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.67
2.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Grasshoppers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grasshoppers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.90
1.20
1.87
1.20
1.93
vs Stronger (11)
1.45
1.73
1.29
1.57
1.75
2.00
vs Similar (19)
1.05
2.00
1.12
2.12
1.00
1.91
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Lausanne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.9%
Under 1.5
18.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
58.7%
Under 2.5
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.3%
Under 3.5
63.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
62.1%
No
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
12.1%
2-1
8.8%
1-2
8.0%
1-0
6.5%
2-2
6.4%
2-0
6.0%
0-0
5.9%
0-1
5.8%
Lausanne goals ↓
Grasshoppers goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.9%
5.8%
5.0%
2.4%
0.9%
1
6.5%
12%
8.0%
3.9%
1.4%
2
6.0%
8.8%
6.4%
3.1%
1.1%
3
3.2%
4.7%
3.4%
1.6%
0.6%
4
1.3%
1.9%
1.3%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lausanne goals (down), columns = Grasshoppers goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Thun
1.97
FC ST. Gallen
1.84
FC Lugano
1.76
FC Sion
1.66
FC Basel 1893
1.47
BSC Young Boys
1.45
Servette FC
1.39
FC Luzern
1.39
Lausanne
1.11
FC Zurich
1.00
FC Vaduz
0.98
Grasshoppers
0.93
Lausanne is 0.18 points better than Grasshoppers in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 0.93).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Thun
2.11
BSC Young Boys
2.11
FC Luzern
2.00
FC ST. Gallen
1.89
Servette FC
1.87
FC Sion
1.66
FC Lugano
1.55
FC Basel 1893
1.45
Lausanne
1.39
FC Zurich
1.29
Grasshoppers
1.25
FC Vaduz
1.16
Lausanne is 0.14 goals better than Grasshoppers in terms of goals scored per game (1.39 vs 1.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Sion
1.05
FC Lugano
1.11
FC ST. Gallen
1.24
FC Thun
1.37
FC Basel 1893
1.53
Servette FC
1.66
FC Luzern
1.74
Lausanne
1.76
BSC Young Boys
1.82
Grasshoppers
1.88
FC Zurich
1.89
FC Vaduz
2.14
Lausanne is 0.11 goals better than Grasshoppers in terms of goals conceded per game (1.76 vs 1.88).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Lugano
56%
BSC Young Boys
55%
FC Basel 1893
55%
Servette FC
52%
FC Sion
51%
FC Zurich
51%
FC Luzern
50%
Lausanne
50%
FC Thun
46%
Grasshoppers
45%
FC ST. Gallen
45%
Lausanne is 4.4 percentage points better than Grasshoppers in terms of average possession (50% vs 45%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Lausanne
For 5.0 · Against 5.3 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 12.9 · Total 24.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Grasshoppers
For 4.5 · Against 5.4 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.7 · Against 10.5 · Total 24.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lausanne
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
10.4
11.0
4.9
4.3
5.5
24.4
23.8
25.0
vs Stronger (7)
9.9
10.2
9.3
3.9
3.0
5.0
25.7
25.2
26.3
vs Similar (40)
10.8
10.4
11.2
5.1
4.7
5.5
24.2
23.5
24.9
vs Weaker (3)
12.0
11.0
12.5
4.0
1.0
5.5
24.3
23.0
25.0
% over line
68%
56%
80%
76%
60%
92%
76%
72%
80%
% under line
32%
44%
20%
24%
40%
8%
24%
28%
20%
This opponent (Grasshoppers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grasshoppers
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
10.0
9.2
5.1
5.1
5.1
24.9
24.7
25.2
vs Stronger (16)
9.4
9.2
9.5
5.6
5.6
5.6
27.1
27.9
26.2
vs Similar (34)
9.7
10.3
9.1
4.9
4.9
4.8
23.8
23.1
24.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
44%
42%
46%
74%
76%
72%
73%
75%
71%
% under line
56%
58%
54%
26%
24%
28%
27%
25%
29%
This opponent (Lausanne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
FC Zurich
10.9
FC ST. Gallen
10.8
Lausanne
10.7
Servette FC
10.5
FC Basel 1893
10.3
FC Thun
10.2
FC Luzern
10.1
FC Sion
9.9
Grasshoppers
9.6
BSC Young Boys
9.6
FC Vaduz
9.4
FC Lugano
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC ST. Gallen
6.0
FC Vaduz
5.3
Grasshoppers
5.2
FC Thun
5.1
FC Sion
4.9
Lausanne
4.9
FC Lugano
4.8
FC Basel 1893
4.8
FC Zurich
4.8
FC Luzern
4.5
Servette FC
4.4
BSC Young Boys
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC ST. Gallen
29.9
FC Thun
28.3
FC Sion
27.1
FC Zurich
26.8
FC Basel 1893
26.7
FC Vaduz
25.4
FC Lugano
25.1
Grasshoppers
25.1
Lausanne
24.4
FC Luzern
24.1
BSC Young Boys
23.9
Servette FC
23.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
55.1%
Under 9.5
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
73.0%
Under 3.5
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
76.8%
Under 21.5
23.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lausanne
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.60
0.79
0.64
0.38
0.56
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (23)
0.61
0.57
0.91
0.64
0.33
0.50
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Grasshoppers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grasshoppers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.93
0.53
0.93
0.67
0.93
vs Stronger (11)
0.82
0.82
0.71
0.86
1.00
0.75
vs Similar (19)
0.47
1.00
0.38
1.00
0.55
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Lausanne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lausanne over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lausanne over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lausanne over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grasshoppers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grasshoppers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grasshoppers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lausanne
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.10
0.43
1.00
0.50
1.19
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.39
1.22
0.36
1.18
0.42
1.25
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Grasshoppers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grasshoppers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.97
0.67
0.93
0.53
1.00
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
0.91
0.57
0.71
0.75
1.25
vs Similar (19)
0.58
1.00
0.75
1.12
0.45
0.91
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Lausanne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lausanne over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lausanne over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lausanne over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grasshoppers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grasshoppers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grasshoppers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Switzerland: Super League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Switzerland: Super League stats & trends →