Laval's defense has been vulnerable at home, conceding an average of 1.5 goals per game against stronger opponents. This trend could be a concern as they face Nantes, who have struggled to score away from home. In their last outing, Laval suffered a 1-3 defeat to Rodez, which may have an impact on their morale. Meanwhile, Nantes have been struggling, coming off two straight defeats, including a 0-1 loss to RED Star FC 93.
The model predicts a home win for Laval, with a 40% chance of victory. The draw percentage stands at 33%, while Nantes have a 27% chance of winning. The expected total number of goals is 2.1, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The single most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 14.7%.
Laval's home scoring average is 1.0 goal per game, while their away scoring average is not provided. Nantes' away scoring average is also not provided. The model's selection is the Under 3.5, with an 84.6% chance of occurrence. The home win percentage is 40%, the draw percentage is 33%, and the away win percentage is 27%. The model's selection, Under 3.5, has a 84.6% chance, while the other selections are not provided.
Results analysis
Laval's win extends their run of coming off a win, having previously defeated Nantes 2-1. The final score was 2-1, with the home team emerging victorious, confirming the actual result. The model correctly picked the home win, which had a pre-match probability of 38%. The model's selection of Laval to win was correct. The suggested picks largely came in, with "Over 21.5 fouls" hitting, having a probability of 91.4%, and "Under 3.5" also hitting, with a probability of 83.9%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Laval winâś“ Hit
38.1%
Avg Implied 24.8% · @ 3.73
Edge
+13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.90
Pinnacle
3.87
Unibet
3.85
10Bet
3.80
1xBet
3.80
Drawâś— Miss
32.5%
Avg Implied 27.9% · @ 3.32
Edge
+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.50
Pinnacle
3.49
Dafabet
3.45
Marathonbet
3.40
Betano
3.40
Nantes winâś— Miss
29.4%
Avg Implied 47.3% · @ 1.96
Edge
-17.9%
Best 5 market prices
SBO
2.05
Pinnacle
2.02
Betano
2.02
Dafabet
1.99
1xBet
1.96
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Laval
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.30
1.54
1.23
1.06
1.35
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
2.43
1.00
1.50
0.20
2.80
vs Similar (22)
1.32
1.00
1.64
1.18
1.00
0.82
vs Weaker (1)
6.00
0.00
-
-
6.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Nantes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nantes
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.67
1.07
1.73
0.93
1.60
vs Stronger (15)
1.00
2.07
1.38
2.25
0.57
1.86
vs Similar (14)
0.71
1.14
0.71
1.14
0.71
1.14
vs Weaker (1)
5.00
3.00
-
-
5.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Laval) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
63.3%
@ 1.30-8.1%
Under 1.5
36.7%
@ 3.27+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.33
Unibet
1.33
888Sport
1.30
Under
Betfair
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.38
Betano
3.35
10Bet
3.25
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
35.0%
@ 1.99-12.4%
Under 2.5
65.0%
@ 1.79+12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.07
Betano
2.02
Unibet
2.02
888Sport
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Under
Betano
1.85
Marathonbet
1.84
1xBet
1.84
Pinnacle
1.82
Betfair
1.80
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
16.1%
@ 3.44-11.0%
Under 3.5
83.9%
@ 1.28+11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.62
BetVictor
3.60
888Sport
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Under
Betano
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
43.3%
@ 1.80-8.2%
No
56.7%
@ 1.91+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.87
William Hil
1.83
888Sport
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Unibet
1.82
No
Betano
1.98
1xBet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.94
BetVictor
1.93
William Hil
1.91
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.8%@ 6.12+7.5%
0-0
13.6%@ 8.79+8.5%
1-0
12.6%@ 9.77+8.0%
0-1
10.5%@ 6.53+3.7%
2-0
7.9%@ 18.12+5.4%
2-1 âś“
7.6%@ 11.77+3.8%
1-2
6.5%@ 8.04+0.9%
0-2
5.7%@ 8.66+0.6%
Laval goals ↓
Nantes goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
10%
5.7%
1.8%
0.4%
1
13%
15%
6.5%
2.1%
0.5%
2
7.9%
7.6%
3.7%
1.2%
0.3%
3
3.0%
2.9%
1.4%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.8%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Laval goals (down), columns = Nantes goals (across).
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đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Nantes
1.92
Saint Etienne
1.75
Rodez
1.67
Reims
1.67
RED Star FC 93
1.67
Metz
1.64
Annecy
1.53
Montpellier
1.47
PAU
1.33
Dunkerque
1.28
Sochaux
1.11
Guingamp
1.11
Grenoble
1.08
Clermont Foot
1.06
Dijon
1.03
Nancy
1.03
Boulogne
1.03
Laval
0.97
Laval is 0.94 points worse than Nantes in terms of average points per game (0.97 vs 1.92).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Nantes
1.80
Saint Etienne
1.72
Dunkerque
1.56
Reims
1.56
Metz
1.54
PAU
1.42
Annecy
1.42
RED Star FC 93
1.36
Rodez
1.31
Guingamp
1.22
Montpellier
1.19
Clermont Foot
1.11
Sochaux
1.05
Boulogne
1.03
Nancy
1.00
Dijon
0.97
Grenoble
0.92
Laval
0.84
Laval is 0.96 goals worse than Nantes in terms of goals scored per game (0.84 vs 1.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Nantes
0.85
Montpellier
0.92
Metz
1.00
Reims
1.03
Saint Etienne
1.11
RED Star FC 93
1.12
Rodez
1.14
Annecy
1.14
Grenoble
1.19
Dunkerque
1.28
Clermont Foot
1.31
Laval
1.32
Sochaux
1.47
Boulogne
1.47
Nancy
1.53
Guingamp
1.56
Dijon
1.58
PAU
1.81
Laval is 0.46 goals worse than Nantes in terms of goals conceded per game (1.32 vs 0.85).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Laval
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.37
0.69
0.23
0.35
0.47
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.20
1.40
vs Similar (22)
0.55
0.18
0.73
0.27
0.36
0.09
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Nantes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nantes
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.77
0.53
0.80
0.60
0.73
vs Stronger (15)
0.53
1.07
0.62
1.25
0.43
0.86
vs Similar (14)
0.43
0.36
0.43
0.29
0.43
0.43
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
2.00
-
-
3.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Laval) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Laval over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laval over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laval over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nantes over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nantes over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nantes over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Laval
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.93
0.85
1.00
0.71
0.88
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
1.43
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.40
vs Similar (22)
0.77
0.82
0.91
0.91
0.64
0.73
vs Weaker (1)
5.00
0.00
-
-
5.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Nantes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nantes
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.90
0.53
0.93
0.33
0.87
vs Stronger (15)
0.47
1.00
0.75
1.00
0.14
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.29
0.79
0.29
0.86
0.29
0.71
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Laval) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Laval over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laval over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laval over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nantes over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nantes over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nantes over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 3.5
83.9%
1.28
Betano
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Bet365
1.28
+11.0%
âś“ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś— Miss
Under 5.5 cards
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś— Miss
Under 11.5 corners
71.6%
1.33
Unibet
1.36
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.31
Betano
1.30
-
+2.9%
âś“ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SE (30)
€93m
NAN (25)
€82m
REI (30)
€72m
MET (26)
€43m
MON (24)
€29m
ROD (23)
€15m
CF (21)
€15m
RSF (22)
€15m
PAU (20)
€14m
NAN (26)
€13m
GRE (27)
€12m
GUI (20)
€11m
DUN (21)
€11m
ANN (21)
€10m
LAV (24)
€9m
BOU (23)
€8m
SOC (20)
€7m
DIJ (20)
€5m
Laval's squad is €72m less valuable than Nantes's (€9m vs €82m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SE (10)
€54m
REI (12)
€38m
NAN (8)
€31m
MET (11)
€17m
MON (9)
€11m
PAU (6)
€6m
GRE (12)
€5m
NAN (9)
€5m
DUN (7)
€4m
RSF (6)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
GUI (4)
€3m
ANN (7)
€3m
SOC (8)
€3m
BOU (6)
€2m
CF (5)
€2m
LAV (7)
€2m
DIJ (7)
€1m
Laval's attack is €29m less valuable than Nantes's (€2m vs €31m).
🧠Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MET (5)
€18m
NAN (7)
€16m
REI (6)
€13m
SE (7)
€11m
MON (5)
€6m
GUI (8)
€4m
ROD (6)
€4m
RSF (5)
€3m
ANN (6)
€3m
LAV (7)
€3m
GRE (5)
€3m
CF (4)
€3m
BOU (6)
€3m
NAN (6)
€2m
PAU (4)
€2m
DIJ (6)
€2m
DUN (5)
€1m
SOC (3)
€1m
Laval's midfield is €14m less valuable than Nantes's (€3m vs €16m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAN (10)
€34m
SE (13)
€28m
REI (12)
€21m
MON (10)
€12m
CF (12)
€10m
MET (10)
€8m
ROD (10)
€7m
RSF (11)
€7m
NAN (11)
€6m
PAU (10)
€6m
DUN (9)
€5m
LAV (10)
€4m
ANN (8)
€4m
GRE (10)
€4m
SOC (9)
€3m
BOU (11)
€3m
GUI (8)
€3m
DIJ (7)
€2m
Laval's defence is €30m less valuable than Nantes's (€4m vs €34m).
France: Ligue 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 2 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Saint Etienne
Reims
Montpellier
Rodez
Nancy
Annecy
Metz
RED Star FC 93
Sochaux
Dunkerque
Guingamp
PAU
Grenoble
Boulogne
Clermont Foot
Dijon