The match between Le Havre and Angers is a tight affair, with the model favouring a home win. Home and away win probabilities sit at 41% and 29% respectively, while a draw is 30%. The expected total goals is 2.4, and the most probable total is two goals, with a 27% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-1, occurring with a 14.2% probability. Le Havre, playing at home against a team of similar strength, averages 1.57 goals scored and 1.14 conceded, whereas Angers, away from home, averages 0.9 goals scored and 0.9 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (99.0%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.7% with a 5% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.9% with a 6% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.8% with a 6% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.1% with a 7% edge), Home under 3.5 goals (97.0% with a 5% edge), and Away under 3.5 goals (96.9% with a 2% edge). Both sides have been evenly matched recently, with Le Havre coming off a draw against Lyon and Angers fresh from a win over Auxerre.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Le Havre win
40.2%
Avg Implied 43.0% · @ 2.20
Edge
-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.27
Dafabet
2.23
Marathonbet
2.23
Pinnacle
2.20
Betano
2.20
Draw
30.0%
Avg Implied 29.1% · @ 3.25
Edge
+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.34
Dafabet
3.30
Betano
3.30
Pinnacle
3.26
Angers win
29.8%
Avg Implied 27.9% · @ 3.38
Edge
+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.58
Marathonbet
3.52
Pinnacle
3.45
Betano
3.45
Dafabet
3.35
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Le Havre
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.27
0.87
1.00
0.80
1.53
vs Stronger (14)
0.50
1.36
0.29
0.71
0.71
2.00
vs Similar (15)
1.20
1.13
1.57
1.14
0.88
1.12
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Angers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Angers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.33
1.07
1.27
0.87
1.40
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
2.17
0.57
2.00
0.80
2.40
vs Similar (18)
1.17
0.78
1.50
0.62
0.90
0.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Le Havre) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
70.7%
@ 1.38+2.6%
Under 1.5
29.3%
@ 2.96-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Pinnacle
1.38
1xBet
1.36
Under
Unibet
3.10
Pinnacle
3.04
Bet365
3.00
Betano
3.00
10Bet
2.90
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
43.4%
@ 2.21+0.3%
Under 2.5
56.6%
@ 1.67-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.27
Betano
2.25
Pinnacle
2.21
Marathonbet
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Under
1xBet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.69
Pinnacle
1.68
Unibet
1.68
Betano
1.67
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
22.4%
@ 3.93-1.5%
Under 3.5
77.6%
@ 1.23+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.20
Bet365
4.00
Betano
4.00
Unibet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.74
Under
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.24
1xBet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Both teams to score
Yes
50.1%
@ 1.90+1.1%
No
49.9%
@ 1.83-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.95
William Hil
1.95
Betfair
1.91
Betano
1.91
10Bet
1.90
No
Unibet
1.89
1xBet
1.84
Betano
1.83
William Hil
1.83
Marathonbet
1.82
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%@ 5.82+6.6%
1-0
10.5%@ 6.42+3.6%
0-0
10.2%@ 7.80+4.6%
0-1
8.5%@ 8.34+3.2%
2-1
8.5%@ 8.72+3.4%
2-0
7.7%@ 9.17+2.9%
1-2
7.1%@ 11.09+3.1%
0-2
5.4%@ 14.72+2.4%
Le Havre goals ↓
Angers goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
8.5%
5.4%
2.0%
0.5%
1
10%
14%
7.1%
2.6%
0.7%
2
7.7%
8.5%
4.7%
1.7%
0.5%
3
3.4%
3.7%
2.0%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.1%
1.2%
0.7%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Le Havre goals (down), columns = Angers goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.24
Lens
2.06
Lille
1.79
Lyon
1.76
Marseille
1.74
Rennes
1.74
Monaco
1.59
Strasbourg
1.56
Toulouse
1.33
Lorient
1.32
Paris FC
1.29
Stade Brestois 29
1.15
Angers
1.06
Estac Troyes
1.04
Le Havre
1.03
Auxerre
1.00
Nice
1.00
Le Mans
0.83
Le Havre is 0.03 points worse than Angers in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 1.06).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.18
Lens
1.94
Marseille
1.85
Monaco
1.76
Rennes
1.74
Strasbourg
1.71
Lyon
1.56
Lille
1.53
Toulouse
1.42
Lorient
1.41
Paris FC
1.38
Stade Brestois 29
1.26
Nice
1.14
Estac Troyes
1.11
Auxerre
1.00
Le Havre
0.94
Le Mans
0.88
Angers
0.85
Le Havre is 0.09 goals better than Angers in terms of goals scored per game (0.94 vs 0.85).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Paris Saint Germain
0.85
Lens
1.03
Lille
1.09
Lyon
1.18
Le Havre
1.29
Auxerre
1.29
Marseille
1.32
Strasbourg
1.38
Toulouse
1.39
Angers
1.41
Rennes
1.47
Paris FC
1.47
Lorient
1.50
Monaco
1.59
Stade Brestois 29
1.62
Nice
1.69
Estac Troyes
1.85
Le Mans
2.32
Le Havre is 0.12 goals better than Angers in terms of goals conceded per game (1.29 vs 1.41).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Paris Saint Germain
69%
Marseille
57%
Lille
56%
Lyon
55%
Monaco
54%
Strasbourg
54%
Rennes
54%
Lens
51%
Paris FC
50%
Le Havre
47%
Nice
47%
Lorient
45%
Auxerre
44%
Stade Brestois 29
43%
Toulouse
42%
Angers
42%
Le Havre is 5.0 percentage points better than Angers in terms of average possession (47% vs 42%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Le Havre
For 4.2 · Against 5.5 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.0 · Against 13.8 · Total 28.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Angers
For 4.5 · Against 5.3 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.2 · Against 11.4 · Total 21.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Le Havre
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
8.5
9.5
3.9
4.0
3.7
26.8
26.9
26.6
vs Stronger (25)
8.8
8.0
9.5
3.8
4.0
3.7
26.3
27.2
25.4
vs Similar (24)
9.3
9.0
9.5
4.0
4.2
3.7
27.3
26.7
28.1
vs Weaker (1)
8.0
8.0
-
2.0
2.0
-
26.0
26.0
-
% over line
43%
40%
46%
58%
62%
54%
92%
100%
83%
% under line
57%
60%
54%
42%
38%
46%
8%
0%
17%
This opponent (Angers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Angers
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.0
9.5
3.2
3.6
2.7
22.6
24.4
20.6
vs Stronger (24)
9.4
8.9
10.0
2.9
3.2
2.4
21.3
22.5
19.6
vs Similar (26)
9.1
9.1
9.1
3.5
4.1
2.9
23.7
26.5
21.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
45%
36%
54%
46%
58%
33%
59%
76%
42%
% under line
55%
64%
46%
54%
42%
67%
41%
24%
58%
This opponent (Le Havre) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Nice
10.5
Rennes
10.5
Lens
10.3
Auxerre
10.0
Lyon
9.9
Stade Brestois 29
9.7
Lille
9.6
Monaco
9.6
Paris FC
9.4
Paris Saint Germain
9.3
Le Mans
9.3
Toulouse
9.3
Angers
9.2
Marseille
9.1
Le Havre
9.0
Strasbourg
8.9
Lorient
8.9
Estac Troyes
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Auxerre
4.8
Lyon
4.6
Marseille
4.5
Lens
4.5
Le Mans
4.4
Lille
4.4
Toulouse
4.3
Monaco
4.3
Rennes
4.3
Strasbourg
4.2
Le Havre
4.0
Nice
4.0
Lorient
4.0
Estac Troyes
3.9
Paris FC
3.9
Stade Brestois 29
3.7
Angers
3.4
Paris Saint Germain
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Le Mans
27.1
Estac Troyes
27.0
Le Havre
26.8
Auxerre
25.7
Toulouse
25.4
Lyon
25.1
Stade Brestois 29
25.0
Lens
24.8
Rennes
24.0
Lille
24.0
Monaco
23.5
Strasbourg
23.5
Nice
23.4
Marseille
23.4
Lorient
22.8
Angers
22.7
Paris FC
22.3
Paris Saint Germain
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
45.8%
@ 1.83-4.5%
Under 9.5
54.2%
@ 1.85+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.83
Under
Unibet
1.85
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
53.8%
Under 3.5
46.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
64.3%
Under 21.5
35.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Le Havre or Draw
65.2%
Avg Implied 72.2% · @ 1.31
Edge
-7.1%
40%
30%
30%
covers Le Havre + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.34
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
10Bet
1.30
Le Havre or Angers
69.2%
Avg Implied 71.0% · @ 1.33
Edge
-1.9%
40%
30%
30%
covers Le Havre + Angers
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Unibet
1.33
Draw or Angers
65.7%
Avg Implied 56.8% · @ 1.67
Edge
+8.9%
40%
30%
30%
covers Draw + Angers
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
1.71
1xBet
1.71
Betano
1.70
Bet365
1.67
10Bet
1.65
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Le Havre over/under 0.5
Over
68.5%
@ 1.27-4.7%
Under
31.5%
@ 3.47+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
Under
Pinnacle
3.63
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.50
Unibet
3.50
10Bet
3.40
Le Havre over/under 1.5
Over
32.2%
@ 2.33-8.0%
Under
67.8%
@ 1.56+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.40
Marathonbet
2.38
Bet365
2.38
1xBet
2.38
Betano
2.32
Under
1xBet
1.59
Marathonbet
1.59
Betano
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
Le Havre over/under 2.5
Over
11.1%
@ 5.28-6.5%
Under
88.9%
@ 1.13+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.35
1xBet
5.35
10Bet
5.25
Under
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Le Havre over/under 3.5
Over
3.0%
@ 12.12-4.9%
Under
97.0%
@ 1.03+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Marathonbet
12.00
1xBet
12.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Angers over/under 0.5
Over
68.9%
@ 1.45+4.8%
Under
31.1%
@ 2.58-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.46
10Bet
1.45
Pinnacle
1.45
Under
Pinnacle
2.66
Unibet
2.65
Bet365
2.62
Betfair
2.60
Betano
2.55
Angers over/under 1.5
Over
32.5%
@ 3.23+3.7%
Under
67.5%
@ 1.31-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.32
Betfair
3.30
Marathonbet
3.30
1xBet
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Under
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Unibet
1.30
Angers over/under 2.5
Over
11.3%
@ 8.37+0.2%
Under
88.7%
@ 1.05-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
9.00
Bet365
9.00
1xBet
8.70
Marathonbet
8.70
Unibet
7.50
Under
Bet365
1.07
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Angers over/under 3.5
Over
3.1%
@ 19.00-2.0%
Under
96.9%
@ 1.01+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
26.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Le Havre, so a minus line means Le Havre give that many goals of a start and Angers receive them. At -1, Le Havre must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Le Havre win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Le Havre)
Le Havre -2
4.7%
@ 9.70-4.5%
Draw -2
10.0%
@ 6.10-4.6%
Angers +2
85.2%
@ 1.17+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
10.00
10Bet
9.50
Unibet
9.50
Marathonbet
8.50
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.20
10Bet
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Unibet
5.80
Away
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
Betfair
1.14
Handicap -1 (Le Havre)
Le Havre -1
14.8%
@ 4.19-6.7%
Draw -1
19.6%
@ 3.73-4.5%
Angers +1
65.7%
@ 1.65+11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Betfair
4.20
Unibet
4.10
Marathonbet
4.10
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
3.75
Unibet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.64
10Bet
3.60
Away
Marathonbet
1.71
10Bet
1.65
Unibet
1.63
Betfair
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Handicap +1 (Le Havre)
Le Havre +1
65.2%
@ 1.30-3.7%
Draw +1
19.8%
@ 4.68+0.6%
Angers -1
15.1%
@ 7.44+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Betfair
1.25
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.80
Unibet
4.60
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Away
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
10Bet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.20
Unibet
7.00
Handicap +2 (Le Havre)
Le Havre +2
84.9%
@ 1.06-0.5%
Draw +2
10.2%
@ 9.25+0.4%
Angers -2
4.9%
@ 19.00+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.08
Unibet
1.06
10Bet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Draw
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
10.00
Unibet
9.00
10Bet
8.00
Away
Bet365
21.00
Betfair
20.00
10Bet
19.00
Unibet
16.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Le Havre
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.67
0.40
0.67
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (14)
0.21
0.50
0.14
0.43
0.29
0.57
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.73
0.71
0.71
0.38
0.75
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Angers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Angers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.73
0.33
0.80
0.27
0.67
vs Stronger (12)
0.17
1.42
0.14
1.57
0.20
1.20
vs Similar (18)
0.39
0.28
0.50
0.12
0.30
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Le Havre) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
68.0%
@ 1.45+3.4%
Under 0.5
32.0%
@ 2.65-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.52
Marathonbet
1.49
1xBet
1.49
William Hil
1.44
Pinnacle
1.44
Under
William Hil
2.75
Betfair
2.75
Pinnacle
2.71
10Bet
2.65
Unibet
2.63
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
27.5%
@ 3.18-2.0%
Under 1.5
72.5%
@ 1.33+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.24
Marathonbet
3.24
1xBet
3.24
Under
William Hil
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.34
1xBet
1.34
Betano
1.34
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
9.0%
@ 8.05-2.6%
Under 2.5
91.0%
@ 1.06+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
William Hil
9.00
Marathonbet
8.10
1xBet
8.10
Betfair
8.00
Under
Betano
1.08
William Hil
1.07
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Le Havre over/under 0.5 HT
Over
45.9%
@ 2.02-0.1%
Under
54.1%
@ 1.72+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.07
Pinnacle
2.04
Marathonbet
2.03
Unibet
2.02
1xBet
2.00
Under
10Bet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.74
1xBet
1.73
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
Le Havre over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.0%
@ 6.27-4.7%
Under
90.0%
@ 1.09+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.50
Unibet
6.10
Betano
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Under
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Unibet
1.07
Le Havre over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.1%
@ 12.00-5.7%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.02+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Angers over/under 0.5 HT
Over
36.0%
@ 2.49-1.4%
Under
64.0%
@ 1.48+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.55
Pinnacle
2.55
1xBet
2.50
Marathonbet
2.49
Unibet
2.43
Under
1xBet
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Unibet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.47
Betano
1.47
Angers over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.9%
@ 8.80-2.6%
Under
92.1%
@ 1.04+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.50
Marathonbet
9.30
Unibet
8.50
Betano
7.90
Under
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.03
Unibet
1.02
Angers over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.2%
@ 14.00-5.5%
Under
98.8%
@ 1.01+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
14.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Le Havre
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.60
0.47
0.33
0.47
0.87
vs Stronger (14)
0.29
0.86
0.14
0.29
0.43
1.43
vs Similar (15)
0.67
0.40
0.86
0.43
0.50
0.38
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Angers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Angers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.60
0.73
0.47
0.60
0.73
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
0.75
0.43
0.43
0.60
1.20
vs Similar (18)
0.78
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.60
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Le Havre) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.5%
@ 1.29+1.9%
Under 0.5
25.5%
@ 3.44-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.33
10Bet
1.30
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Under
Unibet
3.55
Bet365
3.50
Marathonbet
3.50
1xBet
3.50
Betano
3.45
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
38.5%
@ 2.36-1.3%
Under 1.5
61.5%
@ 1.56+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.40
10Bet
2.40
1xBet
2.38
Marathonbet
2.38
Bet365
2.38
Under
Betano
1.60
Marathonbet
1.58
1xBet
1.58
Unibet
1.56
William Hil
1.55
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.6%
@ 5.31-4.0%
Under 2.5
86.4%
@ 1.13+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
5.80
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.40
Marathonbet
5.25
1xBet
5.25
Under
Betano
1.16
William Hil
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Le Havre over/under 0.5 2H
Over
51.4%
@ 1.73-2.3%
Under
48.6%
@ 2.01+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.74
1xBet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Under
Betano
2.05
1xBet
1.99
Marathonbet
1.98
Le Havre over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.4%
@ 4.60-5.8%
Under
85.6%
@ 1.17+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.75
Marathonbet
4.65
1xBet
4.65
Betano
4.35
Under
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Le Havre over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.0%
@ 9.75-6.5%
Under
97.0%
@ 1.03+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Angers over/under 0.5 2H
Over
45.5%
@ 2.07+0.7%
Under
54.5%
@ 1.68-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.07
1xBet
2.07
Betano
2.07
Under
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
Angers over/under 1.5 2H
Over
12.5%
@ 6.43-1.9%
Under
87.5%
@ 1.08+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.70
Marathonbet
6.70
Betano
5.90
Under
Betano
1.11
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Angers over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.3%
@ 12.00-5.5%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.02+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.5%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.9%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.7%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.7%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.5%
Home under 3.5 goals
97.0%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
+4.9%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.0%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+6.5%
Away under 3.5 goals
96.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+2.0%
Under 5.5
96.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
+3.1%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.1%
1.04
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.03
Unibet
1.02
-
+2.6%
Under 4.5
91.3%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.04
+3.5%
Under 2.5 HT goals
91.0%
1.06
Betano
1.08
William Hil
1.07
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
+2.6%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.0%
1.09
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Unibet
1.07
+4.7%
Home under 2.5 goals
88.9%
1.13
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Unibet
1.13
+6.5%
Away under 2.5 goals
88.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.07
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
-0.2%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.5%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
-
-
+1.9%
Under 2.5 2H goals
86.4%
1.13
Betano
1.16
William Hil
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
+4.0%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.6%
1.17
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
-
+5.8%
Away +2 handicap
85.2%
1.17
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
Betfair
1.14
+9.1%
Home +2 handicap
84.9%
1.06
Bet365
1.08
Unibet
1.06
10Bet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
-
-0.5%
Under 5.5 cards
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
77.6%
1.23
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.24
1xBet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
+1.5%
Under 11.5 corners
76.8%
1.32
Unibet
1.32
-
-
-
-
+7.0%
Over 0.5 2H goals
74.5%
1.29
William Hil
1.33
10Bet
1.30
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
+1.9%
Over 2.5 cards
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 1.5 HT goals
72.5%
1.33
William Hil
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.34
1xBet
1.34
Betano
1.34
+2.0%
Over 1.5
70.7%
1.38
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Pinnacle
1.38
1xBet
1.36
+2.6%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Le Havre · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Issa Soumaré20%
Abdoulaye Touré18%
Noam Obougou Jacquet17%
Stephan Zagadou12%
Rassoul Ndiaye12%
Fodé Doucouré12%
Kenny Quetant10%
Mbwana Ally Samatta7%
Godson Kyeremeh7%
Yassine Kechta6%
Felix Mambimbi6%
Sofiane Boufal6%
Arouna Sangante3%
Yanis Zouaoui3%
Gautier Lloris3%
Simon Ebonog3%
Loic Négo0%
Thomas Delaine0%
Lionel Mpasi Nzau0%
Ayumu Seko0%
Younes Namli0%
Mory Diaw0%
Reda Khadra0%
Timothee Pembele0%
Étienne Youte Kinkoue0%
Lucas Gourna-Douath0%
Enzo Koffi0%
Daren Nbenbege Mosengo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lionel Mpasi Nzau50%
Lucas Gourna-Douath27%
Simon Ebonog26%
Yanis Zouaoui23%
Étienne Youte Kinkoue22%
Ayumu Seko20%
Abdoulaye Touré18%
Thomas Delaine17%
Younes Namli15%
Mbwana Ally Samatta15%
Timothee Pembele14%
Arouna Sangante14%
Enzo Koffi13%
Yassine Kechta13%
Sofiane Boufal12%
Kenny Quetant10%
Loic Négo10%
Fodé Doucouré8%
Felix Mambimbi6%
Rassoul Ndiaye6%
Issa Soumaré6%
Gautier Lloris3%
Mory Diaw3%
Godson Kyeremeh0%
Reda Khadra0%
Noam Obougou Jacquet0%
Daren Nbenbege Mosengo0%
Stephan Zagadou0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sofiane Boufal24%
Issa Soumaré14%
Rassoul Ndiaye9%
Younes Namli8%
Godson Kyeremeh7%
Fodé Doucouré4%
Mbwana Ally Samatta4%
Arouna Sangante3%
Yanis Zouaoui3%
Gautier Lloris3%
Mory Diaw3%
Yassine Kechta3%
Felix Mambimbi0%
Loic Négo0%
Thomas Delaine0%
Abdoulaye Touré0%
Lionel Mpasi Nzau0%
Ayumu Seko0%
Reda Khadra0%
Timothee Pembele0%
Étienne Youte Kinkoue0%
Lucas Gourna-Douath0%
Simon Ebonog0%
Enzo Koffi0%
Noam Obougou Jacquet0%
Daren Nbenbege Mosengo0%
Stephan Zagadou0%
Kenny Quetant0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Issa Soumaré40%
Mbwana Ally Samatta15%
Timothee Pembele7%
Sofiane Boufal6%
Rassoul Ndiaye6%
Fodé Doucouré4%
Loic Négo3%
Simon Ebonog3%
Felix Mambimbi0%
Thomas Delaine0%
Abdoulaye Touré0%
Godson Kyeremeh0%
Yanis Zouaoui0%
Lionel Mpasi Nzau0%
Ayumu Seko0%
Younes Namli0%
Gautier Lloris0%
Mory Diaw0%
Reda Khadra0%
Étienne Youte Kinkoue0%
Arouna Sangante0%
Yassine Kechta0%
Lucas Gourna-Douath0%
Enzo Koffi0%
Noam Obougou Jacquet0%
Daren Nbenbege Mosengo0%
Stephan Zagadou0%
Kenny Quetant0%
Angers · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Sidiki Cherif20%
Jim Allevinah17%
Prosper Peter16%
Himad Abdelli15%
Goduine Koyalipou15%
Amine Sbai15%
Djibirin Harouna13%
Yassin Belkhdim7%
Lilian Raolisoa6%
Louis Mouton6%
Lanroy Machine4%
Ousmane Camara3%
Abdoulaye Bamba0%
Haris Belkebla0%
Carlens Arcus0%
Pierrick Capelle0%
Jordan Lefort0%
Hervé Koffi0%
Branco Van den Boomen0%
Florent Hanin0%
Melvin Zinga0%
Jacques Ekomié0%
Emmanuel Biumla0%
Oumar Pona0%
Justin-Noel Kalumba0%
Dan Sinaté0%
Marius Courcoul0%
Marius Louer0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Oumar Pona25%
Haris Belkebla24%
Carlens Arcus21%
Yassin Belkhdim21%
Pierrick Capelle17%
Sidiki Cherif15%
Abdoulaye Bamba14%
Branco Van den Boomen13%
Djibirin Harouna13%
Jacques Ekomié12%
Marius Louer11%
Lilian Raolisoa9%
Himad Abdelli8%
Amine Sbai7%
Ousmane Camara6%
Louis Mouton6%
Lanroy Machine4%
Hervé Koffi3%
Jordan Lefort3%
Goduine Koyalipou0%
Jim Allevinah0%
Florent Hanin0%
Melvin Zinga0%
Emmanuel Biumla0%
Justin-Noel Kalumba0%
Dan Sinaté0%
Marius Courcoul0%
Prosper Peter0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lilian Raolisoa12%
Carlens Arcus11%
Goduine Koyalipou8%
Yassin Belkhdim7%
Branco Van den Boomen7%
Djibirin Harouna7%
Pierrick Capelle6%
Jordan Lefort6%
Amine Sbai4%
Louis Mouton3%
Abdoulaye Bamba0%
Haris Belkebla0%
Himad Abdelli0%
Jim Allevinah0%
Hervé Koffi0%
Florent Hanin0%
Melvin Zinga0%
Ousmane Camara0%
Jacques Ekomié0%
Emmanuel Biumla0%
Oumar Pona0%
Lanroy Machine0%
Justin-Noel Kalumba0%
Dan Sinaté0%
Sidiki Cherif0%
Marius Courcoul0%
Marius Louer0%
Prosper Peter0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Goduine Koyalipou15%
Yassin Belkhdim11%
Himad Abdelli8%
Branco Van den Boomen7%
Prosper Peter6%
Louis Mouton6%
Sidiki Cherif5%
Lanroy Machine4%
Amine Sbai4%
Ousmane Camara3%
Abdoulaye Bamba0%
Haris Belkebla0%
Carlens Arcus0%
Pierrick Capelle0%
Jordan Lefort0%
Jim Allevinah0%
Hervé Koffi0%
Florent Hanin0%
Lilian Raolisoa0%
Melvin Zinga0%
Jacques Ekomié0%
Emmanuel Biumla0%
Oumar Pona0%
Justin-Noel Kalumba0%
Dan Sinaté0%
Marius Courcoul0%
Marius Louer0%
Djibirin Harouna0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
STR (32)
€304m
LYO (32)
€293m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
LEN (27)
€187m
PF (37)
€176m
NIC (28)
€152m
TOU (24)
€115m
LOR (24)
€87m
AUX (29)
€84m
ANG (23)
€73m
SB2 (20)
€64m
LH (25)
€55m
ET (23)
€36m
LM (26)
€24m
Le Havre's squad is €18m less valuable than Angers's (€55m vs €73m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
STR (13)
€112m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
NIC (8)
€62m
PF (13)
€59m
LEN (8)
€52m
ANG (9)
€30m
TOU (7)
€30m
SB2 (6)
€25m
AUX (11)
€23m
LOR (8)
€20m
LH (10)
€9m
ET (7)
€7m
LM (6)
€4m
Le Havre's attack is €21m less valuable than Angers's (€9m vs €30m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
STR (6)
€56m
PF (7)
€54m
REN (5)
€44m
TOU (7)
€39m
LOR (5)
€32m
NIC (9)
€31m
AUX (5)
€28m
LEN (5)
€24m
LH (5)
€23m
SB2 (6)
€20m
ANG (3)
€11m
ET (6)
€11m
LM (8)
€5m
Le Havre's midfield is €12m more valuable than Angers's (€23m vs €11m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
STR (13)
€136m
LEN (14)
€112m
REN (13)
€109m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
PF (17)
€62m
NIC (11)
€60m
TOU (10)
€46m
LOR (11)
€35m
AUX (13)
€33m
ANG (11)
€32m
LH (10)
€23m
SB2 (8)
€19m
ET (10)
€17m
LM (12)
€15m
Le Havre's defence is €9m less valuable than Angers's (€23m vs €32m).
France: Ligue 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Lille
Monaco
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