Monaco is expected to take the win, with a 49% probability, in a match that should see a high-scoring encounter, with an expected total of 3.0 goals. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.7% probability. Le Havre has struggled at home, scoring 0.44 goals on average against stronger opponents, while conceding 0.78 goals. Monaco, on the other hand, has averaged 1.43 goals scored and 1.57 goals conceded when playing away against weaker opponents. The model's selection for the match result is an away win.
The model's selection for over 1.5 goals is likely to be successful, with an 81.8% probability. The model also suggests over 21.5 fouls, with a 71.5% probability. The home win percentage is 25%, the draw percentage is 25%, and the away win percentage is 49%. The model's selection for the match result is an away win, with a 49% probability.
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved accurate as Monaco secured a 0-1 away victory, extending their two-game winning streak while Le Havre slipped after a defeat. The pre-match favourite, Away win, was chosen with a 50 % probability and the outcome matched the actual result. The model’s selections performed strongly: Under 7.5 hit at 98.5 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.5 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.9 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 96.7 %, Under 6.5 hit at 96.0 %, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 96.0 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 93.6 %, and Home under 1.5 HT goals hit at 90.7 %. The model’s predictions largely came through, confirming its reliability for this encounter.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Le Havre win✗ Miss
25.4%
Avg Implied 25.4% · @ 3.74
Edge
+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.99
1xBet
3.96
Marathonbet
3.90
Betfair
3.90
Dafabet
3.80
Draw✗ Miss
25.0%
Avg Implied 25.5% · @ 3.72
Edge
-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.96
Marathonbet
3.90
Betano
3.80
Bet365
3.80
Pinnacle
3.76
Monaco win✓ Hit
49.6%
Avg Implied 49.2% · @ 1.93
Edge
+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.97
1xBet
1.96
Betfair
1.95
Dafabet
1.95
Betano
1.95
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Le Havre
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.27
1.00
1.07
0.73
1.47
vs Stronger (13)
0.62
1.46
0.57
0.86
0.67
2.17
vs Similar (16)
1.12
1.06
1.57
1.14
0.78
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Monaco) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Monaco
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.57
1.62
1.08
1.71
1.94
vs Stronger (5)
1.80
2.40
1.50
1.50
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (12)
1.50
1.42
1.33
0.83
1.67
2.00
vs Weaker (13)
1.77
1.38
2.00
1.20
1.62
1.50
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Le Havre) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
82.5%
@ 1.21+4.5%
Under 1.5
17.5%
@ 4.27-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
888Sport
1.22
BetVictor
1.20
Under
10Bet
4.75
Unibet
4.50
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.33
Superbet
4.20
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
59.7%
@ 1.71+4.2%
Under 2.5
40.3%
@ 2.15-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.79
Pinnacle
1.77
SBO
1.76
Betano
1.75
Superbet
1.74
Under
10Bet
2.35
Unibet
2.20
1xBet
2.18
Pinnacle
2.16
Betfair
2.15
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
37.4%
@ 2.72+2.7%
Under 3.5
62.6%
@ 1.44-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.85
Betano
2.80
Superbet
2.80
888Sport
2.80
1xBet
2.76
Under
10Bet
1.55
Unibet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.46
Bet365
1.44
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
61.3%
@ 1.61+3.4%
No
38.7%
@ 2.22-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.67
Bet365
1.67
888Sport
1.67
Superbet
1.65
Betano
1.62
No
10Bet
2.40
Unibet
2.30
Betfair
2.30
Betano
2.20
888Sport
2.20
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%@ 6.75+4.9%
1-2
9.6%@ 7.86+3.9%
0-2
7.6%@ 9.68+2.9%
0-1 ✓
7.2%@ 8.12+1.7%
2-1
6.6%@ 11.21+2.6%
2-2
6.1%@ 11.78+2.2%
1-3
5.9%@ 13.07+2.4%
0-0
5.6%@ 12.45+2.0%
Le Havre goals ↓
Monaco goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.6%
7.2%
7.6%
4.6%
2.1%
1
4.7%
12%
9.6%
5.9%
2.7%
2
3.6%
6.6%
6.1%
3.7%
1.7%
3
1.5%
2.8%
2.6%
1.6%
0.7%
4
0.5%
0.9%
0.8%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Le Havre goals (down), columns = Monaco goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.24
Lens
2.06
Lille
1.79
Lyon
1.76
Marseille
1.74
Rennes
1.74
Monaco
1.59
Strasbourg
1.56
Toulouse
1.33
Lorient
1.32
Paris FC
1.29
Stade Brestois 29
1.15
Angers
1.06
Estac Troyes
1.04
Le Havre
1.03
Auxerre
1.00
Nice
1.00
Le Mans
0.83
Le Havre is 0.56 points worse than Monaco in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 1.59).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.18
Lens
1.94
Marseille
1.85
Monaco
1.76
Rennes
1.74
Strasbourg
1.71
Lyon
1.56
Lille
1.53
Toulouse
1.42
Lorient
1.41
Paris FC
1.38
Stade Brestois 29
1.26
Nice
1.14
Estac Troyes
1.11
Auxerre
1.00
Le Havre
0.94
Le Mans
0.88
Angers
0.85
Le Havre is 0.82 goals worse than Monaco in terms of goals scored per game (0.94 vs 1.76).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Paris Saint Germain
0.85
Lens
1.03
Lille
1.09
Lyon
1.18
Le Havre
1.29
Auxerre
1.29
Marseille
1.32
Strasbourg
1.38
Toulouse
1.39
Angers
1.41
Rennes
1.47
Paris FC
1.47
Lorient
1.50
Monaco
1.59
Stade Brestois 29
1.62
Nice
1.69
Estac Troyes
1.85
Le Mans
2.32
Le Havre is 0.29 goals better than Monaco in terms of goals conceded per game (1.29 vs 1.59).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Paris Saint Germain
69%
Marseille
57%
Lille
56%
Lyon
55%
Monaco
54%
Strasbourg
54%
Rennes
54%
Lens
51%
Paris FC
50%
Le Havre
47%
Nice
47%
Lorient
45%
Auxerre
44%
Stade Brestois 29
43%
Toulouse
42%
Angers
42%
Le Havre is 7.0 percentage points worse than Monaco in terms of average possession (47% vs 54%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Le Havre
For 3.5 · Against 4.9 · Total 8.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.5 · Against 15.0 · Total 29.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Monaco
For 5.7 · Against 4.4 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.1 · Against 9.8 · Total 22.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Le Havre
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
8.4
9.7
4.0
4.2
3.9
26.9
27.1
26.7
vs Stronger (24)
9.0
7.7
10.1
3.8
3.9
3.8
26.4
27.5
25.5
vs Similar (25)
9.1
8.9
9.2
4.3
4.5
4.1
27.4
26.9
28.0
vs Weaker (1)
8.0
8.0
-
2.0
2.0
-
26.0
26.0
-
% over line
40%
36%
44%
60%
64%
56%
92%
100%
84%
% under line
60%
64%
56%
40%
36%
44%
8%
0%
16%
This opponent (Monaco) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Monaco
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
8.9
10.0
4.3
4.0
4.6
23.8
24.3
23.4
vs Stronger (6)
10.8
9.0
12.7
4.5
4.7
4.3
19.7
20.0
19.3
vs Similar (22)
9.1
8.8
9.5
3.9
4.0
3.7
24.7
26.5
22.9
vs Weaker (22)
9.5
9.0
9.9
4.7
3.8
5.3
24.0
22.9
24.8
% over line
46%
30%
59%
64%
61%
67%
66%
74%
59%
% under line
54%
70%
41%
36%
39%
33%
34%
26%
41%
This opponent (Le Havre) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Nice
10.6
Rennes
10.5
Lens
10.3
Lyon
9.9
Auxerre
9.8
Stade Brestois 29
9.7
Lille
9.7
Monaco
9.5
Paris FC
9.4
Toulouse
9.3
Paris Saint Germain
9.3
Le Mans
9.1
Le Havre
9.0
Strasbourg
9.0
Marseille
9.0
Angers
8.9
Lorient
8.9
Estac Troyes
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lyon
4.7
Auxerre
4.7
Marseille
4.5
Le Mans
4.5
Toulouse
4.4
Lens
4.4
Lille
4.3
Monaco
4.3
Rennes
4.3
Strasbourg
4.2
Le Havre
4.1
Lorient
4.1
Nice
4.1
Estac Troyes
4.0
Paris FC
4.0
Stade Brestois 29
3.7
Angers
3.4
Paris Saint Germain
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Estac Troyes
27.2
Le Mans
27.1
Le Havre
26.9
Auxerre
25.7
Toulouse
25.3
Lyon
25.3
Lens
25.0
Stade Brestois 29
24.7
Rennes
24.1
Lille
23.9
Monaco
23.8
Nice
23.6
Strasbourg
23.6
Marseille
23.3
Lorient
23.0
Angers
22.5
Paris FC
22.4
Paris Saint Germain
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
46.5%
@ 1.92-2.0%
Under 9.5
53.5%
@ 1.81+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.04
Betano
2.00
1xBet
1.99
Marathonbet
1.96
Bet365
1.91
Under
Superbet
1.90
10Bet
1.85
Betano
1.82
Unibet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
58.3%
@ 1.57-1.2%
Under 3.5
41.7%
@ 2.31+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.62
Betano
1.60
Superbet
1.58
Pinnacle
1.48
Under
Pinnacle
2.62
Betano
2.25
Superbet
2.25
Unibet
2.12
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
73.6%
Under 21.5
26.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Le Havre or Draw✗ Miss
50.0%
Avg Implied 50.6% · @ 1.87
Edge
-0.6%
25%
25%
50%
covers Le Havre + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.94
Marathonbet
1.93
SBO
1.90
Betano
1.88
Superbet
1.87
Le Havre or Monaco✓ Hit
75.2%
Avg Implied 74.8% · @ 1.26
Edge
+0.4%
25%
25%
50%
covers Le Havre + Monaco
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
1.29
William Hil
1.29
1xBet
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Draw or Monaco✓ Hit
74.8%
Avg Implied 74.6% · @ 1.27
Edge
+0.1%
25%
25%
50%
covers Draw + Monaco
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Le Havre over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
71.9%
@ 1.35+3.2%
Under
28.1%
@ 2.97-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.39
Betano
1.38
Superbet
1.37
888Sport
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Under
10Bet
3.20
Pinnacle
3.06
Unibet
3.05
Bet365
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Le Havre over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
36.3%
@ 2.75+2.3%
Under
63.7%
@ 1.42-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.98
1xBet
2.89
Marathonbet
2.89
Superbet
2.75
888Sport
2.75
Under
10Bet
1.48
Betano
1.44
Superbet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
Unibet
1.42
Le Havre over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.6%
@ 6.95+0.2%
Under
86.4%
@ 1.08-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.70
1xBet
7.70
Betfair
7.50
888Sport
7.00
Under
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.09
888Sport
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Le Havre over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.0%
@ 18.19-1.3%
Under
96.0%
@ 1.01+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
23.00
Bet365
21.00
Superbet
18.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Monaco over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
84.3%
@ 1.15+3.2%
Under
15.7%
@ 4.92-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
888Sport
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
BetVictor
1.14
Under
Betfair
5.50
1xBet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Unibet
4.90
Monaco over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
55.2%
@ 1.81+3.4%
Under
44.8%
@ 1.94-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.86
1xBet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.85
Superbet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Under
10Bet
2.05
Pinnacle
2.00
Marathonbet
1.97
1xBet
1.97
Unibet
1.96
Monaco over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
28.3%
@ 3.55+2.0%
Under
71.7%
@ 1.27-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.70
Marathonbet
3.66
1xBet
3.66
BetVictor
3.60
Under
10Bet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
Unibet
1.28
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Monaco over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
11.7%
@ 7.97-0.0%
Under
88.3%
@ 1.06+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
888Sport
8.50
Marathonbet
8.40
1xBet
8.40
Betfair
8.00
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
888Sport
1.06
Betfair
1.05
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Le Havre, so a minus line means Le Havre give that many goals of a start and Monaco receive them. At -1, Le Havre must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Le Havre win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Le Havre)Actual: Monaco
Le Havre -2
3.6%
@ 18.40-1.4%
Draw -2
7.3%
@ 10.20-1.7%
Monaco +2
89.1%
@ 1.06+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
21.00
Bet365
21.00
Superbet
19.00
Unibet
16.00
10Bet
15.00
Draw
Bet365
12.00
Betfair
11.00
Superbet
10.00
Unibet
9.50
10Bet
8.50
Away
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Unibet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Handicap -1 (Le Havre)Actual: Monaco
Le Havre -1
10.9%
@ 7.86-0.6%
Draw -1
14.3%
@ 5.39-2.5%
Monaco +1
74.8%
@ 1.26+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
8.50
Marathonbet
8.30
Bet365
8.00
Unibet
7.50
10Bet
7.00
Draw
Marathonbet
5.60
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Unibet
5.10
Away
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Unibet
1.26
Betfair
1.22
Handicap +1 (Le Havre)Actual: Draw
Le Havre +1
50.0%
@ 1.86+1.3%
Draw +1
21.3%
@ 3.77-2.8%
Monaco -1
28.6%
@ 3.34+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.93
Superbet
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Unibet
1.85
Betfair
1.83
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.72
Unibet
3.70
10Bet
3.70
Away
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.40
Superbet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.34
10Bet
3.25
Handicap +2 (Le Havre)Actual: Le Havre
Le Havre +2
71.4%
@ 1.29+1.3%
Draw +2
15.5%
@ 5.43-1.1%
Monaco -2
13.1%
@ 6.78-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.31
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Unibet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Draw
Marathonbet
5.70
Superbet
5.55
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Away
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.00
Superbet
6.90
Marathonbet
6.80
Unibet
6.25
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Le Havre
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.70
0.47
0.73
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (13)
0.31
0.62
0.29
0.57
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (16)
0.50
0.69
0.71
0.71
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Monaco) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Monaco
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.57
0.62
0.46
0.65
0.65
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
0.80
1.00
1.00
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (12)
0.42
0.42
0.33
0.17
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (13)
0.77
0.62
0.80
0.60
0.75
0.62
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Le Havre) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
72.2%
@ 1.31+0.8%
Under 0.5
27.8%
@ 3.28-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
Superbet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Under
10Bet
3.45
Superbet
3.30
Betfair
3.30
1xBet
3.30
Marathonbet
3.30
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
34.4%
@ 2.49-3.4%
Under 1.5
65.6%
@ 1.51+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.61
Betano
2.60
1xBet
2.57
Marathonbet
2.57
Superbet
2.55
Under
10Bet
1.60
Superbet
1.52
Pinnacle
1.52
William Hil
1.50
Betano
1.50
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.6%
@ 6.01-2.9%
Under 2.5
87.4%
@ 1.11+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.30
1xBet
6.30
Under
10Bet
1.15
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.13
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Le Havre over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
41.6%
@ 2.25+0.2%
Under
58.4%
@ 1.60-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.41
Superbet
2.27
Marathonbet
2.27
Betano
2.27
1xBet
2.26
Under
10Bet
1.70
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.58
Unibet
1.58
1xBet
1.58
Le Havre over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.3%
@ 7.40-3.2%
Under
90.7%
@ 1.06+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.90
1xBet
7.80
Superbet
7.40
Unibet
7.00
Betano
6.80
Under
10Bet
1.08
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Unibet
1.06
1xBet
1.03
Le Havre over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 20.25-3.3%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.01+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
28.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Monaco over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
49.4%
@ 1.73-4.6%
Under
50.6%
@ 2.03+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.80
Pinnacle
1.76
Superbet
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.73
Under
10Bet
2.15
Pinnacle
2.09
1xBet
2.00
Unibet
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Monaco over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
17.3%
@ 4.60-2.7%
Under
82.7%
@ 1.16+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.00
Betano
4.65
1xBet
4.60
Unibet
4.60
Superbet
4.55
Under
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
Monaco over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.3%
@ 12.12-4.5%
Under
96.7%
@ 1.02+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Le Havre
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.57
0.53
0.33
0.40
0.80
vs Stronger (13)
0.31
0.85
0.29
0.29
0.33
1.50
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.38
0.86
0.43
0.44
0.33
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Monaco) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Monaco
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.00
1.00
0.62
1.06
1.29
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
1.60
0.50
0.50
1.33
2.33
vs Similar (12)
1.08
1.00
1.00
0.67
1.17
1.33
vs Weaker (13)
1.00
0.77
1.20
0.60
0.88
0.88
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Le Havre) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
81.7%
@ 1.19+3.1%
Under 0.5
18.3%
@ 4.38-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.22
888Sport
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.20
Under
Unibet
4.60
1xBet
4.55
Marathonbet
4.55
Superbet
4.45
Betano
4.40
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
51.5%
@ 1.93+2.6%
Under 1.5
48.5%
@ 1.84-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.98
1xBet
1.98
Superbet
1.97
William Hil
1.95
888Sport
1.95
Under
Unibet
1.89
Betano
1.88
1xBet
1.86
Marathonbet
1.86
Superbet
1.83
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
19.0%
@ 3.92-4.8%
Under 2.5
81.0%
@ 1.23+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.10
1xBet
4.05
Marathonbet
4.05
Bet365
4.00
888Sport
4.00
Under
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.24
Unibet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Le Havre over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
47.6%
@ 1.91-1.0%
Under
52.4%
@ 1.81+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.93
1xBet
1.92
Superbet
1.90
Betano
1.88
Under
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.80
Superbet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.78
Le Havre over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.0%
@ 5.59-3.6%
Under
87.0%
@ 1.11+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.20
1xBet
5.70
Superbet
5.45
Betano
5.00
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
Le Havre over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 14.38-4.5%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.02+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
18.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Monaco over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
58.8%
@ 1.51-2.6%
Under
41.2%
@ 2.41+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.53
1xBet
1.51
Betano
1.50
Under
Betano
2.47
1xBet
2.42
Superbet
2.35
Monaco over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
24.8%
@ 3.42-2.4%
Under
75.2%
@ 1.27+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
1xBet
3.40
Betano
3.30
Under
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Monaco over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.4%
@ 8.70-4.2%
Under
93.6%
@ 1.04+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.50
Superbet
9.00
Betano
7.60
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
96.0%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Betfair
1.01
Superbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.0%
1.01
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
93.6%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.7%
1.06
10Bet
1.08
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Unibet
1.06
1xBet
1.03
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
90.3%
1.05
10Bet
1.07
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
888Sport
1.05
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
89.1%
1.06
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Unibet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
88.3%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
888Sport
1.06
Betfair
1.05
+0.0%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.4%
1.11
10Bet
1.15
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.13
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.11
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
87.0%
1.11
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
86.4%
1.08
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.09
888Sport
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-0.2%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
84.3%
1.15
Betano
1.18
888Sport
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
BetVictor
1.14
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
82.7%
1.16
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
82.5%
1.21
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
888Sport
1.22
BetVictor
1.20
+4.5%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.7%
1.19
William Hil
1.22
888Sport
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.20
+3.1%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.0%
1.23
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.24
Unibet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
79.5%
1.16
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.17
888Sport
1.17
Betfair
1.17
-1.7%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
77.4%
1.26
Unibet
1.27
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.23
-
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
77.1%
1.32
Pinnacle
1.38
Betano
1.34
Superbet
1.29
Unibet
1.29
-
+7.2%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
76.3%
1.28
Superbet
1.38
Unibet
1.30
Betano
1.27
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
75.2%
1.27
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
75.2%
1.26
888Sport
1.29
William Hil
1.29
1xBet
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
74.8%
1.27
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
74.8%
1.26
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Unibet
1.26
Betfair
1.22
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.2%
1.31
Betano
1.37
Superbet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
71.9%
1.35
Pinnacle
1.39
Betano
1.38
Superbet
1.37
888Sport
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
+3.2%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
71.7%
1.27
10Bet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
Unibet
1.28
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.27
-2.0%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
71.4%
1.29
Superbet
1.31
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Unibet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
+1.3%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Le Havre · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Issa Soumaré20%
Abdoulaye Touré18%
Noam Obougou Jacquet17%
Stephan Zagadou12%
Rassoul Ndiaye12%
Fodé Doucouré12%
Kenny Quetant10%
Mbwana Ally Samatta7%
Godson Kyeremeh7%
Yassine Kechta6%
Felix Mambimbi6%
Sofiane Boufal6%
Arouna Sangante3%
Yanis Zouaoui3%
Gautier Lloris3%
Simon Ebonog3%
Loic Négo0%
Thomas Delaine0%
Lionel Mpasi Nzau0%
Ayumu Seko0%
Younes Namli0%
Mory Diaw0%
Reda Khadra0%
Timothee Pembele0%
Étienne Youte Kinkoue0%
Lucas Gourna-Douath0%
Enzo Koffi0%
Daren Nbenbege Mosengo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lionel Mpasi Nzau50%
Lucas Gourna-Douath27%
Simon Ebonog26%
Yanis Zouaoui23%
Étienne Youte Kinkoue22%
Ayumu Seko20%
Abdoulaye Touré18%
Thomas Delaine17%
Younes Namli15%
Mbwana Ally Samatta15%
Timothee Pembele14%
Arouna Sangante14%
Enzo Koffi13%
Yassine Kechta13%
Sofiane Boufal12%
Kenny Quetant10%
Loic Négo10%
Fodé Doucouré8%
Felix Mambimbi6%
Rassoul Ndiaye6%
Issa Soumaré6%
Gautier Lloris3%
Mory Diaw3%
Godson Kyeremeh0%
Reda Khadra0%
Noam Obougou Jacquet0%
Daren Nbenbege Mosengo0%
Stephan Zagadou0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sofiane Boufal24%
Issa Soumaré14%
Rassoul Ndiaye9%
Younes Namli8%
Godson Kyeremeh7%
Fodé Doucouré4%
Mbwana Ally Samatta4%
Arouna Sangante3%
Yanis Zouaoui3%
Gautier Lloris3%
Mory Diaw3%
Yassine Kechta3%
Felix Mambimbi0%
Loic Négo0%
Thomas Delaine0%
Abdoulaye Touré0%
Lionel Mpasi Nzau0%
Ayumu Seko0%
Reda Khadra0%
Timothee Pembele0%
Étienne Youte Kinkoue0%
Lucas Gourna-Douath0%
Simon Ebonog0%
Enzo Koffi0%
Noam Obougou Jacquet0%
Daren Nbenbege Mosengo0%
Stephan Zagadou0%
Kenny Quetant0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Issa Soumaré40%
Mbwana Ally Samatta15%
Timothee Pembele7%
Sofiane Boufal6%
Rassoul Ndiaye6%
Fodé Doucouré4%
Loic Négo3%
Simon Ebonog3%
Felix Mambimbi0%
Thomas Delaine0%
Abdoulaye Touré0%
Godson Kyeremeh0%
Yanis Zouaoui0%
Lionel Mpasi Nzau0%
Ayumu Seko0%
Younes Namli0%
Gautier Lloris0%
Mory Diaw0%
Reda Khadra0%
Étienne Youte Kinkoue0%
Arouna Sangante0%
Yassine Kechta0%
Lucas Gourna-Douath0%
Enzo Koffi0%
Noam Obougou Jacquet0%
Daren Nbenbege Mosengo0%
Stephan Zagadou0%
Kenny Quetant0%
Monaco
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Paris Brunner75%
Mika Biereth50%
Aleksandr Golovin33%
Mamadou Coulibaly33%
Eric Dier25%
Lamine Camara25%
Lukáš Hrádecký0%
Denis Zakaria0%
Vanderson0%
Nazinho0%
Stanis Idumbo Muzambo0%
Sadibou Sané0%
Mathys Detourbet0%
Anis Soubeir0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Aleksandr Golovin33%
Mathys Detourbet33%
Lukáš Hrádecký25%
Denis Zakaria25%
Vanderson25%
Nazinho25%
Lamine Camara25%
Anis Soubeir25%
Eric Dier0%
Mika Biereth0%
Stanis Idumbo Muzambo0%
Paris Brunner0%
Mamadou Coulibaly0%
Sadibou Sané0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nazinho50%
Aleksandr Golovin33%
Mamadou Coulibaly33%
Mathys Detourbet33%
Eric Dier25%
Stanis Idumbo Muzambo25%
Lukáš Hrádecký0%
Denis Zakaria0%
Mika Biereth0%
Vanderson0%
Lamine Camara0%
Paris Brunner0%
Sadibou Sané0%
Anis Soubeir0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Paris Brunner50%
Stanis Idumbo Muzambo25%
Aleksandr Golovin0%
Eric Dier0%
Lukáš Hrádecký0%
Denis Zakaria0%
Mika Biereth0%
Vanderson0%
Nazinho0%
Lamine Camara0%
Mamadou Coulibaly0%
Sadibou Sané0%
Mathys Detourbet0%
Anis Soubeir0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
STR (32)
€304m
LYO (32)
€293m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
LEN (27)
€187m
PF (37)
€176m
NIC (28)
€152m
TOU (24)
€115m
LOR (24)
€87m
AUX (29)
€84m
ANG (23)
€73m
SB2 (20)
€64m
LH (25)
€55m
ET (23)
€36m
LM (26)
€24m
Le Havre's squad is €271m less valuable than Monaco's (€55m vs €326m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
STR (13)
€112m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
NIC (8)
€62m
PF (13)
€59m
LEN (8)
€52m
ANG (9)
€30m
TOU (7)
€30m
SB2 (6)
€25m
AUX (11)
€23m
LOR (8)
€20m
LH (10)
€9m
ET (7)
€7m
LM (6)
€4m
Le Havre's attack is €140m less valuable than Monaco's (€9m vs €148m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
STR (6)
€56m
PF (7)
€54m
REN (5)
€44m
TOU (7)
€39m
LOR (5)
€32m
NIC (9)
€31m
AUX (5)
€28m
LEN (5)
€24m
LH (5)
€23m
SB2 (6)
€20m
ANG (3)
€11m
ET (6)
€11m
LM (8)
€5m
Le Havre's midfield is €61m less valuable than Monaco's (€23m vs €84m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
STR (13)
€136m
LEN (14)
€112m
REN (13)
€109m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
PF (17)
€62m
NIC (11)
€60m
TOU (10)
€46m
LOR (11)
€35m
AUX (13)
€33m
ANG (11)
€32m
LH (10)
€23m
SB2 (8)
€19m
ET (10)
€17m
LM (12)
€15m
Le Havre's defence is €70m less valuable than Monaco's (€23m vs €93m).
France: Ligue 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
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Lille
Paris FC
Lyon
Rennes
Estac Troyes
Lens
Marseille
Angers
Strasbourg
Stade Brestois 29
Paris Saint Germain
Le Mans
Lorient
Toulouse
Nice
Auxerre