Le Havre are tipped to win, the model’s pick, with a 42% chance of triumph, a 28% chance of a draw and a 30% chance of a Brestois victory. The expected total is 2.6 goals, most likely a 2-goal match, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 13.5%. Le Havre’s home form shows they average 1.57 goals scored and 1.14 conceded against similar opposition, while Brestois, on the road, average 1.11 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. The suggested picks include Under 7.5 at 99.5%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.5% with a 6% edge, Under 6.5 at 98.3% with a 2% edge, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.9% with a 5% edge, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.4% with a 6% edge, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.1% with a 6% edge, Away under 3.5 goals at 96.5% with a 3% edge and Under 5.5 at 95.2% with a 2% edge. Both sides have recently drawn, Le Havre 1-1 with Lyon and Brestois 2-2 with Toulouse, hinting at a cautious, low-scoring affair.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Le Havre win
41.5%
Avg Implied 36.1% · @ 2.61
Edge
+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.74
Marathonbet
2.70
Dafabet
2.65
Betano
2.65
Pinnacle
2.64
Draw
28.2%
Avg Implied 29.2% · @ 3.23
Edge
-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.37
Pinnacle
3.34
Marathonbet
3.32
Dafabet
3.30
Betfair
3.30
Stade Brestois 29 win
30.2%
Avg Implied 34.7% · @ 2.72
Edge
-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.82
1xBet
2.82
Betfair
2.80
Marathonbet
2.78
Dafabet
2.75
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Le Havre
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.27
0.87
1.00
0.80
1.53
vs Stronger (14)
0.50
1.36
0.29
0.71
0.71
2.00
vs Similar (15)
1.20
1.13
1.57
1.14
0.88
1.12
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Brestois 29) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stade Brestois 29
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.63
1.57
1.36
0.94
1.88
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
1.33
0.75
0.75
0.40
1.80
vs Similar (19)
1.53
1.79
1.90
1.60
1.11
2.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.50
-
-
1.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Le Havre) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.7%
@ 1.35+5.9%
Under 1.5
24.3%
@ 3.11-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
Pinnacle
1.36
10Bet
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Under
Unibet
3.30
Pinnacle
3.25
Betfair
3.25
Bet365
3.20
Betano
3.15
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
49.8%
@ 2.11+4.5%
Under 2.5
50.2%
@ 1.74-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.18
Pinnacle
2.17
SBO
2.12
Marathonbet
2.12
Betano
2.12
Under
1xBet
1.79
Unibet
1.77
Betano
1.75
Pinnacle
1.75
Marathonbet
1.74
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
27.8%
@ 3.77+2.9%
Under 3.5
72.2%
@ 1.25-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.00
BetVictor
3.90
Betfair
3.80
10Bet
3.75
Unibet
3.70
Under
Betano
1.28
Unibet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Both teams to score
Yes
55.0%
@ 1.80+3.4%
No
45.0%
@ 1.92-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.85
1xBet
1.81
Marathonbet
1.81
Betano
1.80
10Bet
1.80
No
Unibet
1.97
Betfair
1.95
Bet365
1.95
Betano
1.93
10Bet
1.91
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%@ 5.83+5.8%
2-1
8.9%@ 9.24+4.1%
1-0
8.9%@ 7.47+2.9%
0-0
8.2%@ 8.46+2.9%
1-2
7.4%@ 9.43+2.7%
2-0
7.4%@ 11.70+3.5%
0-1
7.2%@ 7.60+1.3%
2-2
5.4%@ 13.47+2.1%
Le Havre goals ↓
Stade Brestois 29 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.2%
7.2%
5.1%
2.1%
0.6%
1
8.9%
13%
7.4%
3.0%
0.9%
2
7.4%
8.9%
5.4%
2.2%
0.7%
3
3.6%
4.3%
2.6%
1.1%
0.3%
4
1.3%
1.6%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Le Havre goals (down), columns = Stade Brestois 29 goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.24
Lens
2.06
Lille
1.79
Lyon
1.76
Marseille
1.74
Rennes
1.74
Monaco
1.59
Strasbourg
1.56
Toulouse
1.33
Lorient
1.32
Paris FC
1.29
Stade Brestois 29
1.15
Angers
1.06
Estac Troyes
1.04
Le Havre
1.03
Nice
1.00
Auxerre
1.00
Le Mans
0.83
Le Havre is 0.12 points worse than Stade Brestois 29 in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 1.15).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.18
Lens
1.94
Marseille
1.85
Monaco
1.76
Rennes
1.74
Strasbourg
1.71
Lyon
1.56
Lille
1.53
Toulouse
1.42
Lorient
1.41
Paris FC
1.38
Stade Brestois 29
1.26
Nice
1.14
Estac Troyes
1.11
Auxerre
1.00
Le Havre
0.94
Le Mans
0.88
Angers
0.85
Le Havre is 0.32 goals worse than Stade Brestois 29 in terms of goals scored per game (0.94 vs 1.26).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Paris Saint Germain
0.85
Lens
1.03
Lille
1.09
Lyon
1.18
Le Havre
1.29
Auxerre
1.29
Marseille
1.32
Strasbourg
1.38
Toulouse
1.39
Angers
1.41
Paris FC
1.47
Rennes
1.47
Lorient
1.50
Monaco
1.59
Stade Brestois 29
1.62
Nice
1.69
Estac Troyes
1.85
Le Mans
2.32
Le Havre is 0.32 goals better than Stade Brestois 29 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.29 vs 1.62).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Paris Saint Germain
69%
Marseille
57%
Lille
56%
Lyon
55%
Monaco
54%
Strasbourg
54%
Rennes
54%
Lens
51%
Paris FC
50%
Le Havre
47%
Nice
47%
Lorient
45%
Auxerre
44%
Stade Brestois 29
43%
Toulouse
42%
Angers
42%
Le Havre is 3.4 percentage points better than Stade Brestois 29 in terms of average possession (47% vs 43%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Le Havre
For 4.2 · Against 5.5 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.0 · Against 13.8 · Total 28.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stade Brestois 29
For 3.3 · Against 5.9 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 10.7 · Total 22.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Le Havre
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
8.5
9.5
4.0
4.2
3.7
26.8
27.0
26.6
vs Stronger (25)
8.8
8.0
9.5
3.8
4.0
3.7
26.3
27.2
25.4
vs Similar (24)
9.2
8.9
9.5
4.2
4.5
3.7
27.5
26.9
28.1
vs Weaker (1)
8.0
8.0
-
2.0
2.0
-
26.0
26.0
-
% over line
42%
38%
46%
60%
65%
54%
92%
100%
83%
% under line
58%
62%
54%
40%
35%
46%
8%
0%
17%
This opponent (Stade Brestois 29) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stade Brestois 29
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.1
10.3
3.6
3.5
3.7
25.2
24.7
25.7
vs Stronger (14)
8.9
8.3
9.6
3.0
3.7
2.3
24.0
25.3
22.7
vs Similar (34)
10.2
9.5
10.9
3.9
3.4
4.4
25.7
24.4
27.1
vs Weaker (2)
8.0
-
8.0
3.5
-
3.5
25.0
-
25.0
% over line
49%
42%
56%
54%
52%
56%
71%
67%
76%
% under line
51%
58%
44%
46%
48%
44%
29%
33%
24%
This opponent (Le Havre) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Nice
10.5
Rennes
10.5
Lens
10.3
Auxerre
10.0
Lyon
9.9
Stade Brestois 29
9.7
Lille
9.6
Monaco
9.6
Paris FC
9.4
Paris Saint Germain
9.3
Le Mans
9.3
Toulouse
9.3
Angers
9.2
Marseille
9.1
Le Havre
9.0
Strasbourg
8.9
Lorient
8.9
Estac Troyes
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Auxerre
4.8
Lyon
4.6
Marseille
4.5
Lens
4.5
Le Mans
4.4
Lille
4.4
Toulouse
4.3
Monaco
4.3
Rennes
4.3
Strasbourg
4.2
Le Havre
4.0
Nice
4.0
Lorient
4.0
Estac Troyes
3.9
Paris FC
3.9
Stade Brestois 29
3.7
Angers
3.4
Paris Saint Germain
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Le Mans
27.1
Estac Troyes
27.0
Le Havre
26.8
Auxerre
25.7
Toulouse
25.4
Lyon
25.1
Stade Brestois 29
25.0
Lens
24.8
Rennes
24.0
Lille
24.0
Monaco
23.5
Strasbourg
23.5
Nice
23.4
Marseille
23.4
Lorient
22.8
Angers
22.7
Paris FC
22.3
Paris Saint Germain
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
47.4%
@ 1.97-0.1%
Under 9.5
52.6%
@ 1.78+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.02
Bet365
2.02
Unibet
1.98
Pinnacle
1.97
10Bet
1.95
Under
Pinnacle
1.84
1xBet
1.80
Bet365
1.78
Marathonbet
1.77
10Bet
1.77
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
54.5%
@ 1.60-3.9%
Under 3.5
45.5%
@ 2.24+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.67
Betano
1.57
Unibet
1.55
Under
Betano
2.30
Unibet
2.25
Pinnacle
2.17
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
75.7%
Under 21.5
24.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Le Havre or Draw
67.8%
Avg Implied 65.2% · @ 1.44
Edge
+2.6%
42%
28%
30%
covers Le Havre + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.48
Betano
1.47
10Bet
1.45
Unibet
1.45
Le Havre or Stade Brestois 29
70.9%
Avg Implied 70.8% · @ 1.33
Edge
+0.1%
42%
28%
30%
covers Le Havre + Stade Brestois 29
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.36
William Hil
1.35
BetVictor
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Draw or Stade Brestois 29
61.3%
Avg Implied 64.0% · @ 1.47
Edge
-2.7%
42%
28%
30%
covers Draw + Stade Brestois 29
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.52
Marathonbet
1.51
1xBet
1.51
Unibet
1.49
10Bet
1.45
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Le Havre over/under 0.5
Over
74.1%
@ 1.32+3.5%
Under
25.9%
@ 3.17-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.34
Pinnacle
1.33
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
3.34
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Unibet
3.20
BetVictor
3.13
Le Havre over/under 1.5
Over
39.1%
@ 2.57+2.8%
Under
60.9%
@ 1.47-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.70
Marathonbet
2.63
Bet365
2.62
10Bet
2.55
BetVictor
2.55
Under
1xBet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.49
Marathonbet
1.48
Unibet
1.47
Betano
1.47
Le Havre over/under 2.5
Over
15.5%
@ 6.19+0.5%
Under
84.5%
@ 1.09-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
1xBet
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.45
10Bet
6.25
Under
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
1xBet
1.09
10Bet
1.09
Unibet
1.09
Le Havre over/under 3.5
Over
4.8%
@ 14.75-1.7%
Under
95.2%
@ 1.02+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 0.5
Over
70.3%
@ 1.33+0.4%
Under
29.7%
@ 3.09-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.36
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Under
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.18
Unibet
3.10
Marathonbet
3.04
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 1.5
Over
34.2%
@ 2.63-1.4%
Under
65.8%
@ 1.45+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.84
Marathonbet
2.70
BetVictor
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Betfair
2.60
Under
1xBet
1.47
Betano
1.47
Marathonbet
1.46
10Bet
1.45
Pinnacle
1.45
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 2.5
Over
12.3%
@ 6.49-2.0%
Under
87.7%
@ 1.09+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
6.80
Marathonbet
6.65
BetVictor
6.50
Under
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 3.5
Over
3.5%
@ 14.75-3.0%
Under
96.5%
@ 1.02+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Le Havre, so a minus line means Le Havre give that many goals of a start and Stade Brestois 29 receive them. At -1, Le Havre must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Le Havre win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Le Havre)
Le Havre -2
6.6%
@ 11.88-0.8%
Draw -2
11.7%
@ 6.73-1.4%
Stade Brestois 29 +2
81.6%
@ 1.12+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
13.00
10Bet
13.00
Unibet
11.50
Marathonbet
6.90
Draw
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
7.50
Unibet
7.00
10Bet
6.50
Marathonbet
4.65
Away
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Handicap -1 (Le Havre)
Le Havre -1
18.4%
@ 5.36+1.5%
Draw -1
20.3%
@ 4.14-1.5%
Stade Brestois 29 +1
61.3%
@ 1.48+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
5.50
10Bet
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.30
Unibet
5.00
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.20
Betfair
4.20
10Bet
4.00
Unibet
3.95
Away
Marathonbet
1.51
Bet365
1.50
Unibet
1.48
10Bet
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Handicap +1 (Le Havre)
Le Havre +1
67.8%
@ 1.44+5.4%
Draw +1
18.1%
@ 4.18-3.4%
Stade Brestois 29 -1
14.1%
@ 5.58-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.48
10Bet
1.45
Unibet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Betfair
1.40
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.33
Marathonbet
4.25
Unibet
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Away
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.50
Betfair
5.50
10Bet
5.50
Unibet
5.40
Handicap +2 (Le Havre)
Le Havre +2
85.9%
@ 1.11+4.6%
Draw +2
9.5%
@ 7.50-2.6%
Stade Brestois 29 -2
4.6%
@ 13.62-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Draw
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
8.00
Unibet
7.50
10Bet
6.50
Away
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
14.00
10Bet
13.00
Unibet
12.50
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Le Havre
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.67
0.40
0.67
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (14)
0.21
0.50
0.14
0.43
0.29
0.57
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.73
0.71
0.71
0.38
0.75
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Brestois 29) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stade Brestois 29
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.83
0.86
0.71
0.44
0.94
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
0.78
0.75
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.84
0.90
0.80
0.56
0.89
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Le Havre) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
66.3%
@ 1.43+1.0%
Under 0.5
33.7%
@ 2.70-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.47
Bet365
1.44
Pinnacle
1.44
Under
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.83
William Hil
2.80
Unibet
2.70
Marathonbet
2.67
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
30.4%
@ 3.05-0.4%
Under 1.5
69.6%
@ 1.35+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.18
Betano
3.15
Marathonbet
3.12
1xBet
3.12
Under
Betano
1.37
10Bet
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
9.9%
@ 7.94-1.9%
Under 2.5
90.1%
@ 1.06+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
BetVictor
8.50
William Hil
8.50
Marathonbet
8.10
1xBet
8.10
Under
William Hil
1.08
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Le Havre over/under 0.5 HT
Over
41.7%
@ 2.17-1.2%
Under
58.3%
@ 1.63+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.21
Betano
2.20
Marathonbet
2.17
1xBet
2.17
10Bet
2.15
Under
Pinnacle
1.67
10Bet
1.65
Betano
1.62
Unibet
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Le Havre over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.4%
@ 7.15-3.6%
Under
90.6%
@ 1.06+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.70
Marathonbet
7.70
10Bet
7.00
Unibet
6.75
Betano
6.60
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
Unibet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Le Havre over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.9%
@ 12.50-5.6%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.01+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
42.5%
@ 2.21+0.4%
Under
57.5%
@ 1.61-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.29
Betano
2.25
1xBet
2.21
Marathonbet
2.21
Unibet
2.18
Under
10Bet
1.65
Pinnacle
1.62
Betano
1.60
Unibet
1.60
1xBet
1.59
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.7%
@ 7.30-3.0%
Under
90.3%
@ 1.06+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.90
Marathonbet
7.90
Unibet
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Betano
6.70
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Unibet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.6%
@ 12.50-5.9%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.01+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Le Havre
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.60
0.47
0.33
0.47
0.87
vs Stronger (14)
0.29
0.86
0.14
0.29
0.43
1.43
vs Similar (15)
0.67
0.40
0.86
0.43
0.50
0.38
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Stade Brestois 29) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stade Brestois 29
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.80
0.71
0.64
0.50
0.94
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
0.56
0.00
0.25
0.40
0.80
vs Similar (19)
0.79
0.95
1.00
0.80
0.56
1.11
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
-
-
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Le Havre) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.5%
@ 1.27-0.3%
Under 0.5
26.5%
@ 3.57+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
Under
Unibet
3.70
Betano
3.60
1xBet
3.58
Marathonbet
3.58
Bet365
3.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
39.6%
@ 2.25-2.2%
Under 1.5
60.4%
@ 1.62+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.32
1xBet
2.32
William Hil
2.30
Bet365
2.25
Betano
2.22
Under
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.63
William Hil
1.62
Unibet
1.61
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.0%
@ 5.03-4.6%
Under 2.5
86.0%
@ 1.15+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
5.25
Marathonbet
5.25
William Hil
5.00
10Bet
4.80
Under
Betano
1.18
William Hil
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.14
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Le Havre over/under 0.5 2H
Over
48.9%
@ 1.82-2.0%
Under
51.1%
@ 1.89+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.80
Under
Betano
1.93
1xBet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.87
Le Havre over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.0%
@ 5.11-4.1%
Under
86.0%
@ 1.13+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.35
Marathonbet
5.35
10Bet
5.00
Betano
4.75
Under
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
Le Havre over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.6%
@ 10.50-6.3%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.03+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
47.2%
@ 1.85-3.0%
Under
52.8%
@ 1.87+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.85
Betano
1.85
Under
Betano
1.90
Marathonbet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.4%
@ 5.22-3.3%
Under
85.6%
@ 1.13+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.50
10Bet
5.00
Betano
4.90
Under
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Stade Brestois 29 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.9%
@ 10.75-5.8%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.03+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.9%
Under 6.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.1%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.6%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.4%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+6.3%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.1%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+5.8%
Away under 3.5 goals
96.5%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
+3.0%
Under 5.5
95.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
+1.8%
Home under 3.5 goals
95.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
+1.7%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.6%
1.06
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
Unibet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
+3.6%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.3%
1.06
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Unibet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
+3.0%
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.1%
1.06
William Hil
1.08
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
+1.9%
Under 4.5
88.2%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
Unibet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
+0.7%
Away under 2.5 goals
87.7%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
+2.0%
Over 19.5 fouls
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
86.0%
1.15
Betano
1.18
William Hil
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.14
+4.6%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
86.0%
1.13
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
-
+4.1%
Home +2 handicap
85.9%
1.11
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
-
+4.6%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
85.6%
1.13
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
-
+3.3%
Home under 2.5 goals
84.5%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
1xBet
1.09
10Bet
1.09
Unibet
1.09
-0.5%
Away +2 handicap
81.6%
1.12
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.13
10Bet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
+2.3%
Under 5.5 cards
80.2%
1.33
Betano
1.34
Unibet
1.32
-
-
-
+10.6%
Over 21.5 fouls
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
75.7%
1.35
Betano
1.38
Pinnacle
1.36
10Bet
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Bet365
1.36
+5.9%
Under 11.5 corners
75.6%
1.25
Unibet
1.26
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
-
+2.2%
Over 2.5 cards
74.5%
1.26
Betano
1.26
-
-
-
-
+0.2%
Home over 0.5 goals
74.1%
1.32
1xBet
1.34
Pinnacle
1.33
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
+3.5%
Over 0.5 2H goals
73.5%
1.27
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
-0.3%
Under 3.5
72.2%
1.25
Betano
1.28
Unibet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-2.9%
Home or Away
70.9%
1.33
1xBet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.36
William Hil
1.35
BetVictor
1.33
Bet365
1.33
+0.1%
Away over 0.5 goals
70.3%
1.33
Pinnacle
1.36
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
+0.4%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Le Havre · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Issa Soumaré20%
Abdoulaye Touré18%
Noam Obougou Jacquet17%
Stephan Zagadou12%
Rassoul Ndiaye12%
Fodé Doucouré12%
Kenny Quetant10%
Mbwana Ally Samatta7%
Godson Kyeremeh7%
Yassine Kechta6%
Felix Mambimbi6%
Sofiane Boufal6%
Arouna Sangante3%
Yanis Zouaoui3%
Gautier Lloris3%
Simon Ebonog3%
Loic Négo0%
Thomas Delaine0%
Lionel Mpasi Nzau0%
Ayumu Seko0%
Younes Namli0%
Mory Diaw0%
Reda Khadra0%
Timothee Pembele0%
Étienne Youte Kinkoue0%
Lucas Gourna-Douath0%
Enzo Koffi0%
Daren Nbenbege Mosengo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lionel Mpasi Nzau50%
Lucas Gourna-Douath27%
Simon Ebonog26%
Yanis Zouaoui23%
Étienne Youte Kinkoue22%
Ayumu Seko20%
Abdoulaye Touré18%
Thomas Delaine17%
Younes Namli15%
Mbwana Ally Samatta15%
Timothee Pembele14%
Arouna Sangante14%
Enzo Koffi13%
Yassine Kechta13%
Sofiane Boufal12%
Kenny Quetant10%
Loic Négo10%
Fodé Doucouré8%
Felix Mambimbi6%
Rassoul Ndiaye6%
Issa Soumaré6%
Gautier Lloris3%
Mory Diaw3%
Godson Kyeremeh0%
Reda Khadra0%
Noam Obougou Jacquet0%
Daren Nbenbege Mosengo0%
Stephan Zagadou0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sofiane Boufal24%
Issa Soumaré14%
Rassoul Ndiaye9%
Younes Namli8%
Godson Kyeremeh7%
Fodé Doucouré4%
Mbwana Ally Samatta4%
Arouna Sangante3%
Yanis Zouaoui3%
Gautier Lloris3%
Mory Diaw3%
Yassine Kechta3%
Felix Mambimbi0%
Loic Négo0%
Thomas Delaine0%
Abdoulaye Touré0%
Lionel Mpasi Nzau0%
Ayumu Seko0%
Reda Khadra0%
Timothee Pembele0%
Étienne Youte Kinkoue0%
Lucas Gourna-Douath0%
Simon Ebonog0%
Enzo Koffi0%
Noam Obougou Jacquet0%
Daren Nbenbege Mosengo0%
Stephan Zagadou0%
Kenny Quetant0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Issa Soumaré40%
Mbwana Ally Samatta15%
Timothee Pembele7%
Sofiane Boufal6%
Rassoul Ndiaye6%
Fodé Doucouré4%
Loic Négo3%
Simon Ebonog3%
Felix Mambimbi0%
Thomas Delaine0%
Abdoulaye Touré0%
Godson Kyeremeh0%
Yanis Zouaoui0%
Lionel Mpasi Nzau0%
Ayumu Seko0%
Younes Namli0%
Gautier Lloris0%
Mory Diaw0%
Reda Khadra0%
Étienne Youte Kinkoue0%
Arouna Sangante0%
Yassine Kechta0%
Lucas Gourna-Douath0%
Enzo Koffi0%
Noam Obougou Jacquet0%
Daren Nbenbege Mosengo0%
Stephan Zagadou0%
Kenny Quetant0%
Stade Brestois 29 · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Romain Del Castillo27%
Ludovic Ajorque22%
Remy Labeau Lascary21%
Julien Le Cardinal17%
Kamory Doumbia17%
Junior Dina Ebimbe15%
Mama Baldé11%
Joris Chotard6%
Lucas Tousart4%
Daouda Guindo4%
Pathé Mboup4%
Brendan Chardonnet3%
Hugo Magnetti3%
Grégoire Coudert0%
Kenny Lala0%
Radosław Majecki0%
Soumaila Coulibaly0%
Bradley Locko0%
Michel Diaz0%
Luc Zogbé0%
Hamidou Makalou0%
Raphaël Le Guen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ludovic Ajorque28%
Kamory Doumbia25%
Michel Diaz24%
Brendan Chardonnet23%
Pathé Mboup21%
Soumaila Coulibaly19%
Julien Le Cardinal17%
Daouda Guindo15%
Hugo Magnetti15%
Kenny Lala15%
Junior Dina Ebimbe11%
Grégoire Coudert8%
Remy Labeau Lascary7%
Romain Del Castillo6%
Joris Chotard6%
Lucas Tousart0%
Radosław Majecki0%
Mama Baldé0%
Bradley Locko0%
Luc Zogbé0%
Hamidou Makalou0%
Raphaël Le Guen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ludovic Ajorque22%
Kamory Doumbia17%
Romain Del Castillo12%
Mama Baldé11%
Brendan Chardonnet10%
Kenny Lala9%
Bradley Locko9%
Daouda Guindo4%
Remy Labeau Lascary4%
Hugo Magnetti3%
Joris Chotard3%
Lucas Tousart0%
Grégoire Coudert0%
Radosław Majecki0%
Julien Le Cardinal0%
Junior Dina Ebimbe0%
Soumaila Coulibaly0%
Michel Diaz0%
Pathé Mboup0%
Luc Zogbé0%
Hamidou Makalou0%
Raphaël Le Guen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ludovic Ajorque19%
Julien Le Cardinal17%
Mama Baldé16%
Kamory Doumbia8%
Remy Labeau Lascary7%
Pathé Mboup7%
Romain Del Castillo6%
Joris Chotard6%
Junior Dina Ebimbe4%
Brendan Chardonnet3%
Lucas Tousart0%
Hugo Magnetti0%
Grégoire Coudert0%
Kenny Lala0%
Radosław Majecki0%
Soumaila Coulibaly0%
Bradley Locko0%
Daouda Guindo0%
Michel Diaz0%
Luc Zogbé0%
Hamidou Makalou0%
Raphaël Le Guen0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
STR (32)
€304m
LYO (32)
€293m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
LEN (27)
€187m
PF (37)
€176m
NIC (28)
€152m
TOU (24)
€115m
LOR (24)
€87m
AUX (29)
€84m
ANG (23)
€73m
SB2 (20)
€64m
LH (25)
€55m
ET (23)
€36m
LM (26)
€24m
Le Havre's squad is €9m less valuable than Stade Brestois 29's (€55m vs €64m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
STR (13)
€112m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
NIC (8)
€62m
PF (13)
€59m
LEN (8)
€52m
ANG (9)
€30m
TOU (7)
€30m
SB2 (6)
€25m
AUX (11)
€23m
LOR (8)
€20m
LH (10)
€9m
ET (7)
€7m
LM (6)
€4m
Le Havre's attack is €16m less valuable than Stade Brestois 29's (€9m vs €25m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
STR (6)
€56m
PF (7)
€54m
REN (5)
€44m
TOU (7)
€39m
LOR (5)
€32m
NIC (9)
€31m
AUX (5)
€28m
LEN (5)
€24m
LH (5)
€23m
SB2 (6)
€20m
ANG (3)
€11m
ET (6)
€11m
LM (8)
€5m
Le Havre's midfield is €3m more valuable than Stade Brestois 29's (€23m vs €20m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
STR (13)
€136m
LEN (14)
€112m
REN (13)
€109m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
PF (17)
€62m
NIC (11)
€60m
TOU (10)
€46m
LOR (11)
€35m
AUX (13)
€33m
ANG (11)
€32m
LH (10)
€23m
SB2 (8)
€19m
ET (10)
€17m
LM (12)
€15m
Le Havre's defence is €4m more valuable than Stade Brestois 29's (€23m vs €19m).
France: Ligue 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
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Lille
Monaco
Paris FC
Lyon
Rennes
Estac Troyes
Lens
Marseille
Angers
Strasbourg
Paris Saint Germain
Le Mans
Lorient
Toulouse
Nice
Auxerre