Le Mans, fresh from a 2-3 loss to Rennes, faces Lens, who also came off a defeat but have been more potent away. The model favours a home win, giving Le Mans a 34% chance, a draw 34% and Lens 32%. The expected total is 1.9 goals, with the most likely total of two goals at 28%. The single most probable scoreline is 0-0, with a 15.9% probability, reflecting the low-scoring nature of the matchup.
Le Mans averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded at home against stronger opposition, while Lens averages 2.75 goals scored and 1.0 conceded on the road against weaker sides. These figures underline the model’s edge on the Under 6.5 goals selection, which carries a 99.6% probability and a 5% edge over the market.
Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 5.5 (98.6% with 9% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (98.4% with 15% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.3% with 5% edge), Home under 3.5 goals (98.2% with 3% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.6% with 5% edge) and Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.5% with 8% edge).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Le Mans win
33.9%
Avg Implied 17.9% · @ 5.28
Edge
+16.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
5.64
Marathonbet
5.55
Pinnacle
5.43
Unibet
5.40
Betano
5.30
Draw
34.2%
Avg Implied 22.4% · @ 4.21
Edge
+11.8%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.47
Marathonbet
4.40
Pinnacle
4.31
Dafabet
4.30
Betano
4.25
Lens win
31.9%
Avg Implied 59.7% · @ 1.58
Edge
-27.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.63
Betano
1.60
Dafabet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.60
William Hil
1.57
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Le Mans
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.93
1.15
0.38
1.59
1.35
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
2.25
1.50
1.50
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (24)
1.42
0.67
1.09
0.18
1.69
1.08
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.50
-
-
1.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Lens) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lens
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.33
1.17
2.47
0.93
2.20
1.40
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (18)
2.22
1.39
2.57
1.14
2.00
1.55
vs Weaker (11)
2.73
0.73
2.71
0.57
2.75
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Le Mans) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
58.8%
@ 1.20-19.6%
Under 1.5
41.2%
@ 4.33+19.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
Unibet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Under
Bet365
4.50
1xBet
4.30
Unibet
4.30
Marathonbet
4.30
Betano
4.25
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
30.4%
@ 1.67-26.6%
Under 2.5
69.6%
@ 2.22+26.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.72
Betano
1.70
Unibet
1.70
Bet365
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
Under
1xBet
2.31
Pinnacle
2.25
Marathonbet
2.24
Betano
2.22
Betfair
2.20
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
13.0%
@ 2.64-22.7%
Under 3.5
87.0%
@ 1.47+22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.80
Betano
2.70
Pinnacle
2.62
Bet365
2.62
1xBet
2.55
Under
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Pinnacle
1.49
Marathonbet
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Both teams to score
Yes
39.6%
@ 1.71-14.9%
No
60.4%
@ 2.05+14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.75
Unibet
1.73
William Hil
1.73
Betano
1.72
1xBet
1.70
No
Betfair
2.10
William Hil
2.10
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.03
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
15.9%@ 13.57+12.6%
1-1
14.9%@ 7.64+8.9%
1-0
12.9%@ 14.36+9.8%
0-1
12.4%@ 7.62+6.5%
2-0
7.0%@ 27.43+5.4%
2-1
6.6%@ 14.96+3.6%
0-2
6.5%@ 7.69+0.6%
1-2
6.4%@ 7.86+0.6%
Le Mans goals ↓
Lens goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
16%
12%
6.5%
2.0%
0.5%
1
13%
15%
6.4%
2.0%
0.5%
2
7.0%
6.6%
3.1%
1.0%
0.2%
3
2.3%
2.2%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.6%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Le Mans goals (down), columns = Lens goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.24
Lens
2.06
Lille
1.79
Lyon
1.76
Marseille
1.74
Rennes
1.74
Monaco
1.59
Strasbourg
1.56
Toulouse
1.33
Lorient
1.32
Paris FC
1.29
Stade Brestois 29
1.15
Angers
1.06
Estac Troyes
1.04
Le Havre
1.03
Auxerre
1.00
Nice
1.00
Le Mans
0.83
Le Mans is 1.23 points worse than Lens in terms of average points per game (0.83 vs 2.06).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.18
Lens
1.94
Marseille
1.85
Monaco
1.76
Rennes
1.74
Strasbourg
1.71
Lyon
1.56
Lille
1.53
Toulouse
1.42
Lorient
1.41
Paris FC
1.38
Stade Brestois 29
1.26
Nice
1.14
Estac Troyes
1.11
Auxerre
1.00
Le Havre
0.94
Le Mans
0.88
Angers
0.85
Le Mans is 1.06 goals worse than Lens in terms of goals scored per game (0.88 vs 1.94).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Paris Saint Germain
0.85
Lens
1.03
Lille
1.09
Lyon
1.18
Le Havre
1.29
Auxerre
1.29
Marseille
1.32
Strasbourg
1.38
Toulouse
1.39
Angers
1.41
Rennes
1.47
Paris FC
1.47
Lorient
1.50
Monaco
1.59
Stade Brestois 29
1.62
Nice
1.69
Estac Troyes
1.85
Le Mans
2.32
Le Mans is 1.29 goals worse than Lens in terms of goals conceded per game (2.32 vs 1.03).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Paris Saint Germain
69%
Marseille
57%
Lille
56%
Lyon
55%
Monaco
54%
Strasbourg
54%
Rennes
54%
Lens
51%
Paris FC
50%
Le Havre
47%
Nice
47%
Lorient
45%
Auxerre
44%
Stade Brestois 29
43%
Toulouse
42%
Angers
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Le Mans
For 4.9 · Against 3.1 · Total 8.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 17.5 · Against 10.5 · Total 28.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lens
For 7.5 · Against 5.1 · Total 12.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.8 · Against 11.6 · Total 22.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Le Mans
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.7
9.6
3.6
3.2
4.0
27.1
25.7
28.4
vs Stronger (7)
7.6
4.5
9.7
2.0
1.0
2.8
23.0
21.5
24.0
vs Similar (38)
10.0
10.3
9.7
4.2
3.7
4.7
27.5
26.2
28.8
vs Weaker (5)
9.0
-
9.0
1.6
0.0
2.0
34.0
-
34.0
% over line
57%
60%
55%
54%
52%
56%
86%
80%
91%
% under line
43%
40%
45%
46%
48%
44%
14%
20%
9%
This opponent (Lens) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lens
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.8
9.9
4.1
3.8
4.3
24.7
25.0
24.4
vs Stronger (2)
8.0
9.0
7.0
2.0
1.0
3.0
15.0
12.0
18.0
vs Similar (33)
11.0
11.6
10.4
4.2
4.0
4.3
24.2
24.7
23.8
vs Weaker (15)
9.3
9.5
9.1
4.2
3.9
4.6
26.9
27.1
26.7
% over line
53%
57%
50%
60%
50%
69%
66%
74%
58%
% under line
47%
43%
50%
40%
50%
31%
34%
26%
42%
This opponent (Le Mans) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Nice
10.5
Rennes
10.5
Lens
10.3
Auxerre
10.0
Lyon
9.9
Stade Brestois 29
9.7
Lille
9.6
Monaco
9.6
Paris FC
9.4
Paris Saint Germain
9.3
Le Mans
9.3
Toulouse
9.3
Angers
9.2
Marseille
9.1
Le Havre
9.0
Strasbourg
8.9
Lorient
8.9
Estac Troyes
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Auxerre
4.8
Lyon
4.6
Marseille
4.5
Lens
4.5
Le Mans
4.4
Lille
4.4
Toulouse
4.3
Monaco
4.3
Rennes
4.3
Strasbourg
4.2
Le Havre
4.0
Nice
4.0
Lorient
4.0
Estac Troyes
3.9
Paris FC
3.9
Stade Brestois 29
3.7
Angers
3.4
Paris Saint Germain
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Le Mans
27.1
Estac Troyes
27.0
Le Havre
26.8
Auxerre
25.7
Toulouse
25.4
Lyon
25.1
Stade Brestois 29
25.0
Lens
24.8
Rennes
24.0
Lille
24.0
Monaco
23.5
Strasbourg
23.5
Nice
23.4
Marseille
23.4
Lorient
22.8
Angers
22.7
Paris FC
22.3
Paris Saint Germain
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
51.7%
@ 1.84+1.7%
Under 9.5
48.3%
@ 1.84-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.84
Under
Unibet
1.84
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
57.1%
Under 3.5
42.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
63.7%
Under 21.5
36.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Le Mans or Draw
68.1%
Avg Implied 40.6% · @ 2.34
Edge
+27.5%
34%
34%
32%
covers Le Mans + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
2.43
1xBet
2.43
Betano
2.37
Unibet
2.33
Betfair
2.30
Le Mans or Lens
65.8%
Avg Implied 77.7% · @ 1.22
Edge
-12.0%
34%
34%
32%
covers Le Mans + Lens
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Draw or Lens
66.1%
Avg Implied 81.7% · @ 1.16
Edge
-15.6%
34%
34%
32%
covers Draw + Lens
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.18
William Hil
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Le Mans over/under 0.5
Over
62.6%
@ 1.49+0.3%
Under
37.4%
@ 2.47-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.52
Pinnacle
1.51
Unibet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
Under
Betfair
2.55
Pinnacle
2.53
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.45
1xBet
2.44
Le Mans over/under 1.5
Over
25.8%
@ 3.52-0.8%
Under
74.2%
@ 1.28+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.60
1xBet
3.58
Marathonbet
3.58
Pinnacle
3.56
Unibet
3.50
Under
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Le Mans over/under 2.5
Over
7.7%
@ 9.53-2.1%
Under
92.3%
@ 1.03+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
1xBet
10.00
Marathonbet
10.00
Unibet
9.50
Betfair
9.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
Le Mans over/under 3.5
Over
1.8%
@ 20.75-2.8%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.01+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
29.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Lens over/under 0.5
Over
61.1%
@ 1.10-23.5%
Under
38.9%
@ 6.06+23.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.11
Unibet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Under
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
6.50
1xBet
5.80
Unibet
5.60
Betano
5.40
Lens over/under 1.5
Over
24.4%
@ 1.57-35.1%
Under
75.6%
@ 2.31+35.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.60
Marathonbet
1.60
1xBet
1.60
Bet365
1.57
Pinnacle
1.57
Under
Betfair
2.40
Pinnacle
2.38
Marathonbet
2.33
1xBet
2.33
Bet365
2.25
Lens over/under 2.5
Over
7.1%
@ 2.81-26.2%
Under
92.9%
@ 1.40+26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.90
1xBet
2.85
Marathonbet
2.85
Pinnacle
2.83
Betano
2.75
Under
Marathonbet
1.42
1xBet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Lens over/under 3.5
Over
1.6%
@ 5.70-14.7%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.11+14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
1xBet
5.85
Marathonbet
5.85
Unibet
5.80
Betfair
5.50
Under
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Betfair
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Le Mans, so a minus line means Le Mans give that many goals of a start and Lens receive them. At -1, Le Mans must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Le Mans win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Le Mans)
Le Mans -2
3.7%
@ 32.50+0.8%
Draw -2
9.5%
@ 16.00+3.6%
Lens +2
86.8%
@ 1.03-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
36.00
Bet365
29.00
Draw
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
15.00
Away
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.02
Handicap -1 (Le Mans)
Le Mans -1
13.2%
@ 10.69+4.9%
Draw -1
20.7%
@ 6.20+6.4%
Lens +1
66.1%
@ 1.15-11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
12.00
Unibet
11.50
Marathonbet
6.25
Draw
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Unibet
6.75
Marathonbet
4.05
Away
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
Unibet
1.13
Betfair
1.11
Handicap +1 (Le Mans)
Le Mans +1
68.1%
@ 2.33+29.6%
Draw +1
19.8%
@ 3.58-5.2%
Lens -1
12.0%
@ 2.46-24.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
2.43
Unibet
2.32
Betfair
2.30
Bet365
2.25
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.60
Marathonbet
3.55
Unibet
3.40
Away
Bet365
2.50
Unibet
2.48
Marathonbet
2.47
Betfair
2.40
Handicap +2 (Le Mans)
Le Mans +2
88.0%
@ 1.47+26.8%
Draw +2
8.8%
@ 4.56-11.0%
Lens -2
3.3%
@ 4.70-15.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.50
Marathonbet
1.48
Unibet
1.46
Betfair
1.44
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.70
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.30
Away
Bet365
5.00
Unibet
4.80
Marathonbet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Le Mans
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.47
0.62
0.15
0.94
0.71
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.25
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (24)
0.79
0.29
0.55
0.00
1.00
0.54
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Lens) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lens
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.53
1.07
0.40
0.80
0.67
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.89
0.72
1.14
0.71
0.73
0.73
vs Weaker (11)
1.09
0.18
1.14
0.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Le Mans) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
66.4%
@ 1.30-5.5%
Under 0.5
33.6%
@ 3.35+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
Unibet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Under
Betfair
3.60
Marathonbet
3.42
1xBet
3.42
Bet365
3.40
William Hil
3.30
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
31.0%
@ 2.46-7.2%
Under 1.5
69.0%
@ 1.51+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.55
Unibet
2.50
1xBet
2.48
Marathonbet
2.48
Pinnacle
2.45
Under
Bet365
1.53
Marathonbet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.53
1xBet
1.53
Betano
1.52
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
10.0%
@ 5.74-6.2%
Under 2.5
90.0%
@ 1.11+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
Unibet
5.80
William Hil
5.80
Marathonbet
5.75
1xBet
5.75
Under
Betano
1.14
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Betfair
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Le Mans over/under 0.5 HT
Over
38.9%
@ 2.61+3.3%
Under
61.1%
@ 1.44-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.74
Unibet
2.65
Betano
2.60
Marathonbet
2.58
1xBet
2.50
Under
1xBet
1.48
Betano
1.45
Marathonbet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
Unibet
1.41
Le Mans over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.6%
@ 9.59-2.0%
Under
92.4%
@ 1.02+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.50
Unibet
10.00
1xBet
9.60
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
Marathonbet
1.01
Unibet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Le Mans over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.7%
@ 14.00-5.0%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.01+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
14.00
Under
Betano
1.01
Lens over/under 0.5 HT
Over
43.2%
@ 1.60-15.1%
Under
56.8%
@ 2.23+15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.65
Unibet
1.60
1xBet
1.58
Pinnacle
1.56
Under
Pinnacle
2.34
1xBet
2.26
Unibet
2.18
Betano
2.15
Lens over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.6%
@ 3.90-13.0%
Under
89.4%
@ 1.21+13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
4.10
Marathonbet
3.92
Betano
3.90
1xBet
3.70
Under
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
Unibet
1.18
Lens over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.5%
@ 9.00-7.8%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.04+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Le Mans
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.47
0.54
0.23
0.65
0.65
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (24)
0.62
0.38
0.55
0.18
0.69
0.54
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
-
-
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Lens) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lens
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.63
1.40
0.53
1.40
0.73
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.33
0.67
1.43
0.43
1.27
0.82
vs Weaker (11)
1.64
0.55
1.57
0.57
1.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Le Mans) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.5%
@ 1.18-3.9%
Under 0.5
24.5%
@ 4.53+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Under
1xBet
4.75
Marathonbet
4.75
Betano
4.55
Bet365
4.50
Unibet
4.40
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
39.7%
@ 1.88-10.1%
Under 1.5
60.3%
@ 1.87+10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.92
William Hil
1.91
Unibet
1.86
Betano
1.85
Under
Betano
1.93
1xBet
1.91
Marathonbet
1.91
Bet365
1.83
Unibet
1.82
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.3%
@ 3.74-7.7%
Under 2.5
82.7%
@ 1.25+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.90
Unibet
3.80
Marathonbet
3.75
Bet365
3.75
1xBet
3.75
Under
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.22
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Le Mans over/under 0.5 2H
Over
45.9%
@ 2.14+2.3%
Under
54.1%
@ 1.65-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.16
1xBet
2.13
Betano
2.12
Under
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.62
Le Mans over/under 1.5 2H
Over
10.9%
@ 6.87-2.6%
Under
89.1%
@ 1.07+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.50
1xBet
7.00
Betano
6.10
Under
Betano
1.10
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Le Mans over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.4%
@ 12.00-5.4%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.02+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Lens over/under 0.5 2H
Over
52.5%
@ 1.40-14.2%
Under
47.5%
@ 2.80+14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.40
Betano
1.40
Under
Betano
2.80
1xBet
2.80
Lens over/under 1.5 2H
Over
18.8%
@ 2.83-14.0%
Under
81.2%
@ 1.38+14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.88
Betano
2.80
1xBet
2.80
Under
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.36
Lens over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.4%
@ 6.70-10.4%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.07+10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.20
Betano
6.20
Under
Betano
1.10
1xBet
1.05
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
+5.3%
Under 5.5
98.6%
1.04
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.06
Unibet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
+8.8%
Away under 3.5 goals
98.4%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Betfair
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
+14.7%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.0%
Home under 3.5 goals
98.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+2.8%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.6%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.4%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.5%
1.04
Betano
1.04
-
-
-
-
+7.8%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.6%
1.07
Betano
1.10
1xBet
1.05
-
-
-
+10.4%
Under 4.5
95.4%
1.15
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
+14.8%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
92.4%
1.02
Betano
1.05
Marathonbet
1.01
Unibet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+2.0%
Home under 2.5 goals
92.3%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
+2.1%
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.0%
1.11
Betano
1.14
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Betfair
1.11
+6.2%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.4%
1.21
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
Unibet
1.18
-
+13.0%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
89.1%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
-
-
+2.6%
Away +2 handicap
86.8%
1.03
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.02
-
-
-
-4.4%
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.7%
1.25
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.22
+7.7%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
81.2%
1.38
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.36
-
-
+14.0%
Over 19.5 fouls
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.5%
1.18
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
-3.9%
Home under 1.5 goals
74.2%
1.28
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
Bet365
1.28
+0.8%
Under 11.5 corners
71.9%
1.32
Unibet
1.32
-
-
-
-
+2.5%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Le Mans · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dame Gueye25%
Antoine Rabillard21%
Erwan Colas20%
William Harhouz18%
Lucas Bretelle15%
Samuel Yohou12%
Jean Vercruysse11%
Lucas Buades10%
Taylor Luvambo8%
Milan Robin7%
Théo Eyoum7%
Lucas Calodat6%
Edwin Quarshie6%
Anthony Ribelin5%
Isaac Cossier4%
Harold Voyer4%
Martin Rossignol4%
Alexandre Lauray0%
Baptiste Guillaume0%
Nicolas Kocik0%
Leroy Abanda0%
Ewan Hatfout0%
Théo Eyoum0%
Brice Oggad0%
Mathis Hamdi0%
Malang Gomes0%
Noa Boissé0%
Adil Bourabaa0%
Izhak Hammoudi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mathis Hamdi50%
Malang Gomes50%
Alexandre Lauray40%
Samuel Yohou26%
Martin Rossignol22%
Izhak Hammoudi20%
Anthony Ribelin19%
Harold Voyer19%
Lucas Buades17%
Nicolas Kocik16%
Noa Boissé15%
Isaac Cossier15%
Leroy Abanda14%
Edwin Quarshie11%
Jean Vercruysse11%
Milan Robin10%
Théo Eyoum9%
Brice Oggad9%
William Harhouz9%
Lucas Calodat9%
Taylor Luvambo8%
Lucas Bretelle8%
Adil Bourabaa7%
Erwan Colas7%
Antoine Rabillard6%
Dame Gueye6%
Baptiste Guillaume0%
Ewan Hatfout0%
Théo Eyoum0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Brice Oggad18%
Leroy Abanda14%
Antoine Rabillard12%
Lucas Calodat12%
Dame Gueye11%
Lucas Buades10%
Erwan Colas10%
Milan Robin10%
Lucas Bretelle8%
Adil Bourabaa7%
Alexandre Lauray6%
William Harhouz5%
Martin Rossignol4%
Edwin Quarshie3%
Samuel Yohou0%
Baptiste Guillaume0%
Nicolas Kocik0%
Anthony Ribelin0%
Jean Vercruysse0%
Harold Voyer0%
Taylor Luvambo0%
Ewan Hatfout0%
Théo Eyoum0%
Mathis Hamdi0%
Malang Gomes0%
Noa Boissé0%
Isaac Cossier0%
Théo Eyoum0%
Izhak Hammoudi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Dame Gueye14%
Erwan Colas10%
Antoine Rabillard9%
Taylor Luvambo8%
Lucas Bretelle8%
Adil Bourabaa7%
Martin Rossignol4%
Milan Robin3%
Lucas Calodat3%
Alexandre Lauray0%
Samuel Yohou0%
Lucas Buades0%
Baptiste Guillaume0%
Nicolas Kocik0%
Edwin Quarshie0%
Anthony Ribelin0%
Jean Vercruysse0%
Leroy Abanda0%
Harold Voyer0%
Ewan Hatfout0%
Théo Eyoum0%
Brice Oggad0%
Mathis Hamdi0%
William Harhouz0%
Malang Gomes0%
Noa Boissé0%
Isaac Cossier0%
Théo Eyoum0%
Izhak Hammoudi0%
Lens · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Odsonne Édouard35%
Florian Thauvin35%
Allan Saint-Maximin31%
Wesley Saïd26%
Abdallah Sima22%
Rayan Fofana17%
Adrien Thomasson11%
Ismaelo Ganiou10%
Amadou Haidara10%
Saud Abdulhamid10%
Mamadou Sangare9%
Andrija Bulatovic9%
Samson Baidoo8%
Matthieu Udol8%
Ruben Aguilar7%
Florian Sotoca7%
Morgan Guilavogui6%
Deiver Machado0%
Arthur Masuaku0%
Jonathan Gradit0%
Malang Sarr0%
Robin Risser0%
Nidal Čelik0%
Fode Sylla0%
Anthony Bermont0%
Kyllian Antonio0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nidal Čelik33%
Adrien Thomasson31%
Deiver Machado20%
Jonathan Gradit20%
Ruben Aguilar17%
Arthur Masuaku17%
Morgan Guilavogui17%
Florian Thauvin16%
Saud Abdulhamid16%
Allan Saint-Maximin15%
Mamadou Sangare15%
Kyllian Antonio14%
Abdallah Sima11%
Ismaelo Ganiou10%
Malang Sarr10%
Matthieu Udol10%
Andrija Bulatovic9%
Anthony Bermont9%
Wesley Saïd9%
Robin Risser8%
Samson Baidoo8%
Florian Sotoca7%
Odsonne Édouard6%
Amadou Haidara0%
Fode Sylla0%
Rayan Fofana0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Florian Thauvin22%
Matthieu Udol20%
Adrien Thomasson19%
Saud Abdulhamid19%
Andrija Bulatovic18%
Allan Saint-Maximin15%
Kyllian Antonio14%
Mamadou Sangare12%
Abdallah Sima11%
Amadou Haidara10%
Odsonne Édouard9%
Samson Baidoo8%
Ruben Aguilar7%
Wesley Saïd6%
Florian Sotoca3%
Robin Risser3%
Malang Sarr3%
Deiver Machado0%
Arthur Masuaku0%
Jonathan Gradit0%
Morgan Guilavogui0%
Ismaelo Ganiou0%
Nidal Čelik0%
Fode Sylla0%
Anthony Bermont0%
Rayan Fofana0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Wesley Saïd32%
Allan Saint-Maximin23%
Florian Thauvin22%
Deiver Machado20%
Odsonne Édouard18%
Matthieu Udol15%
Abdallah Sima11%
Rayan Fofana10%
Mamadou Sangare9%
Adrien Thomasson8%
Ismaelo Ganiou7%
Florian Sotoca7%
Morgan Guilavogui6%
Malang Sarr5%
Andrija Bulatovic5%
Samson Baidoo4%
Saud Abdulhamid3%
Amadou Haidara0%
Arthur Masuaku0%
Ruben Aguilar0%
Jonathan Gradit0%
Robin Risser0%
Nidal Čelik0%
Fode Sylla0%
Anthony Bermont0%
Kyllian Antonio0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
STR (32)
€304m
LYO (32)
€293m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
LEN (27)
€187m
PF (37)
€176m
NIC (28)
€152m
TOU (24)
€115m
LOR (24)
€87m
AUX (29)
€84m
ANG (23)
€73m
SB2 (20)
€64m
LH (25)
€55m
ET (23)
€36m
LM (26)
€24m
Le Mans's squad is €163m less valuable than Lens's (€24m vs €187m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
STR (13)
€112m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
NIC (8)
€62m
PF (13)
€59m
LEN (8)
€52m
ANG (9)
€30m
TOU (7)
€30m
SB2 (6)
€25m
AUX (11)
€23m
LOR (8)
€20m
LH (10)
€9m
ET (7)
€7m
LM (6)
€4m
Le Mans's attack is €48m less valuable than Lens's (€4m vs €52m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
STR (6)
€56m
PF (7)
€54m
REN (5)
€44m
TOU (7)
€39m
LOR (5)
€32m
NIC (9)
€31m
AUX (5)
€28m
LEN (5)
€24m
LH (5)
€23m
SB2 (6)
€20m
ANG (3)
€11m
ET (6)
€11m
LM (8)
€5m
Le Mans's midfield is €18m less valuable than Lens's (€5m vs €24m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
STR (13)
€136m
LEN (14)
€112m
REN (13)
€109m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
PF (17)
€62m
NIC (11)
€60m
TOU (10)
€46m
LOR (11)
€35m
AUX (13)
€33m
ANG (11)
€32m
LH (10)
€23m
SB2 (8)
€19m
ET (10)
€17m
LM (12)
€15m
Le Mans's defence is €97m less valuable than Lens's (€15m vs €112m).
France: Ligue 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Lille
Monaco
Paris FC
Lyon
Rennes
Estac Troyes
Marseille
Angers
Strasbourg
Stade Brestois 29
Paris Saint Germain
Le Havre
Lorient
Toulouse
Nice
Auxerre