Lechia Gdansk are clear favorites, the model rating them at 62% for a home win, a figure that reflects their solid 2.14 average goals scored at home against similar opposition and a low 0.57 goals conceded. Arka Gdynia, while competitive, have a weaker away record, averaging only 1.6 goals scored and conceding 1.4 against comparable teams. The expected total goals sits at 2.5, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 27%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-0, with a 13.7% chance, underscoring Lechia’s defensive solidity. The model’s suggested picks include an 76.1% chance of Under 3.5 goals and a 72.0% chance of Over 1.5 goals. Home win probability is 62%, draw 25%, and away win 13%. These figures paint a picture of a tight, low-scoring affair where Lechia’s home advantage and recent 3-game winning streak give them the edge.
Results analysis
Lechia Gdansk’s 3-game winning streak continued as they edged Arka Gdynia 2-1, securing the home win the model had predicted. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was chosen with a 62% probability and proved correct. The model’s selections also performed well: Under 3.5, with a 76.1% chance, hit; Over 1.5, at 72.0%, hit. The most likely scoreline of 1-0 (13.7%) and 2-0 (13.1%) were close to the actual 2-1 result, and the predicted total of 2 goals (27%) matched the final tally. Lechia’s solid home form and Arka’s modest away output made the outcome unsurprising.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Lechia Gdansk win✓ Hit
61.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Arka Gdynia win✗ Miss
13.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Lechia Gdansk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
0.87
2.33
0.40
1.20
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.47
0.73
2.14
0.57
0.88
0.88
vs Weaker (15)
2.07
1.00
2.50
0.25
1.57
1.86
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Arka Gdynia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arka Gdynia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
0.97
1.87
0.73
1.40
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.75
1.00
1.90
0.60
1.60
1.40
vs Weaker (10)
1.40
0.90
1.80
1.00
1.00
0.80
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Lechia Gdansk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.0%
Under 1.5
28.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.2%
Under 2.5
54.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.9%
Under 3.5
76.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
43.3%
No
56.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
13.7%
2-0
13.1%
1-1
11.6%
0-0
9.4%
2-1 ✓
9.3%
3-0
7.7%
3-1
5.5%
0-1
4.9%
Lechia Gdansk goals ↓
Arka Gdynia goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.4%
4.9%
2.1%
0.5%
0.1%
1
14%
12%
3.7%
0.9%
0.2%
2
13%
9.3%
3.3%
0.8%
0.1%
3
7.7%
5.5%
2.0%
0.5%
0.1%
4
3.4%
2.4%
0.9%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lechia Gdansk goals (down), columns = Arka Gdynia goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lechia Gdansk
2.00
GKS Katowice
1.82
Arka Gdynia
1.81
Motor Lublin
1.67
Górnik Łęczna
1.60
Odra Opole
1.51
Miedz Legnica
1.50
Tychy 71
1.50
Wisla Plock
1.50
Wisla Krakow
1.47
Stal Rzeszów
1.41
Chrobry Głogów
1.24
Znicz Pruszków
1.24
Nieciecza
1.21
Polonia Warszawa
1.03
Resovia Rzeszów
1.00
Podbeskidzie
0.68
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
0.47
Lechia Gdansk is 0.19 points better than Arka Gdynia in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.81).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
GKS Katowice
2.00
Wisla Krakow
1.82
Lechia Gdansk
1.76
Nieciecza
1.65
Arka Gdynia
1.58
Stal Rzeszów
1.56
Miedz Legnica
1.53
Motor Lublin
1.42
Wisla Plock
1.35
Tychy 71
1.26
Odra Opole
1.26
Polonia Warszawa
1.21
Resovia Rzeszów
1.15
Chrobry Głogów
1.03
Górnik Łęczna
1.00
Znicz Pruszków
1.00
Podbeskidzie
0.76
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
0.62
Lechia Gdansk is 0.18 goals better than Arka Gdynia in terms of goals scored per game (1.76 vs 1.58).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Górnik Łęczna
0.83
Lechia Gdansk
1.00
Odra Opole
1.03
GKS Katowice
1.03
Arka Gdynia
1.06
Miedz Legnica
1.06
Motor Lublin
1.19
Znicz Pruszków
1.29
Wisla Plock
1.35
Tychy 71
1.38
Chrobry Głogów
1.44
Polonia Warszawa
1.47
Wisla Krakow
1.47
Nieciecza
1.53
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.62
Podbeskidzie
1.74
Stal Rzeszów
1.76
Resovia Rzeszów
1.76
Lechia Gdansk is 0.06 goals better than Arka Gdynia in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.06).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lechia Gdansk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.37
1.20
0.20
0.40
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.67
0.27
0.86
0.29
0.50
0.25
vs Weaker (15)
0.93
0.47
1.50
0.12
0.29
0.86
Clean sheet %
73% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Arka Gdynia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arka Gdynia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.50
0.80
0.33
0.87
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.90
0.50
0.70
0.30
1.10
0.70
vs Weaker (10)
0.70
0.50
1.00
0.40
0.40
0.60
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Lechia Gdansk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lechia Gdansk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lechia Gdansk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lechia Gdansk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arka Gdynia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arka Gdynia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arka Gdynia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lechia Gdansk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.50
1.13
0.20
0.80
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.80
0.47
1.29
0.29
0.38
0.62
vs Weaker (15)
1.13
0.53
1.00
0.12
1.29
1.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Arka Gdynia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arka Gdynia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.47
1.07
0.40
0.53
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.85
0.50
1.20
0.30
0.50
0.70
vs Weaker (10)
0.70
0.40
0.80
0.60
0.60
0.20
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Lechia Gdansk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lechia Gdansk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lechia Gdansk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lechia Gdansk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arka Gdynia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arka Gdynia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arka Gdynia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Lechia Gdansk · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tomáš Bobček47%
Ivan Zhelyzko23%
Rifet Kapić16%
Dawid Kurminowski13%
Camilo Mena13%
Kacper Sezonienko13%
Aleksandar Ćirković12%
Mohamed Awadalla12%
Bogdan Viunnyk12%
Tomasz Neugebauer9%
Bujar Pllana6%
Matej Rodin4%
Maksym Diachuk4%
Matúš Vojtko3%
Miłosz Kałahur0%
Alvis Jaunzems0%
Alex Paulsen0%
Elias Olsson0%
Bartłomiej Kłudka0%
Szymon Weirauch0%
Tomasz Wójtowicz0%
Anton Tsarenko0%
Michal Głogowski0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Miłosz Kałahur33%
Ivan Zhelyzko30%
Rifet Kapić25%
Elias Olsson25%
Mohamed Awadalla25%
Bujar Pllana24%
Camilo Mena19%
Matúš Vojtko19%
Tomasz Neugebauer19%
Tomáš Bobček17%
Maksym Diachuk15%
Kacper Sezonienko13%
Aleksandar Ćirković12%
Matej Rodin12%
Tomasz Wójtowicz9%
Dawid Kurminowski9%
Alex Paulsen8%
Bogdan Viunnyk8%
Bartłomiej Kłudka6%
Alvis Jaunzems0%
Szymon Weirauch0%
Anton Tsarenko0%
Michal Głogowski0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Camilo Mena23%
Tomáš Bobček17%
Aleksandar Ćirković17%
Ivan Zhelyzko17%
Anton Tsarenko14%
Elias Olsson12%
Matej Rodin12%
Alvis Jaunzems11%
Matúš Vojtko10%
Rifet Kapić9%
Kacper Sezonienko6%
Tomasz Neugebauer6%
Dawid Kurminowski4%
Maksym Diachuk4%
Miłosz Kałahur0%
Alex Paulsen0%
Bogdan Viunnyk0%
Bujar Pllana0%
Bartłomiej Kłudka0%
Szymon Weirauch0%
Tomasz Wójtowicz0%
Michal Głogowski0%
Mohamed Awadalla0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tomáš Bobček57%
Aleksandar Ćirković21%
Camilo Mena13%
Ivan Zhelyzko10%
Bogdan Viunnyk8%
Matej Rodin8%
Bujar Pllana6%
Dawid Kurminowski4%
Miłosz Kałahur0%
Matúš Vojtko0%
Alvis Jaunzems0%
Rifet Kapić0%
Alex Paulsen0%
Maksym Diachuk0%
Elias Olsson0%
Kacper Sezonienko0%
Bartłomiej Kłudka0%
Szymon Weirauch0%
Tomasz Neugebauer0%
Tomasz Wójtowicz0%
Anton Tsarenko0%
Michal Głogowski0%
Mohamed Awadalla0%
Arka Gdynia · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Vladislavs Gutkovskis25%
Oskar Kubiak21%
Nazariy Rusyn17%
Eduardo Espiau14%
Dawid Kocyła10%
Sebastian Kerk9%
Marc Navarro7%
Dawid Abramowicz7%
Kamil Jakubczyk6%
Michał Marcjanik6%
Luis Perea5%
Kike Hermoso5%
Dawid Gojny5%
Aurélien Nguiamba0%
Tornike Gaprindashvili0%
Patryk Szysz0%
Michał Rzuchowski0%
Serafin Szota0%
Szymon Sobczak0%
Damian Węglarz0%
João Oliveira0%
Dominick Zator0%
Julien Celestine0%
Jędrzej Grobelny0%
Alassane Sidibe0%
Diego Percan0%
Hide Vitalucci0%
Marcel Predenkiewicz0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Julien Celestine62%
Kamil Jakubczyk29%
Tornike Gaprindashvili24%
Dawid Gojny23%
Diego Percan22%
Aurélien Nguiamba21%
Kike Hermoso19%
Alassane Sidibe19%
Nazariy Rusyn17%
Luis Perea16%
Marc Navarro14%
Dawid Abramowicz14%
Jędrzej Grobelny14%
Vladislavs Gutkovskis12%
Michał Marcjanik12%
Michał Rzuchowski11%
Dominick Zator11%
Eduardo Espiau10%
Serafin Szota10%
Sebastian Kerk9%
Oskar Kubiak7%
Dawid Kocyła6%
Patryk Szysz0%
Szymon Sobczak0%
Damian Węglarz0%
João Oliveira0%
Hide Vitalucci0%
Marcel Predenkiewicz0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sebastian Kerk18%
Marc Navarro14%
Diego Percan11%
Kike Hermoso10%
Dawid Abramowicz7%
Oskar Kubiak7%
Vladislavs Gutkovskis6%
Tornike Gaprindashvili6%
Luis Perea5%
Dawid Gojny5%
Patryk Szysz4%
Kamil Jakubczyk3%
Nazariy Rusyn0%
Aurélien Nguiamba0%
Michał Marcjanik0%
Michał Rzuchowski0%
Serafin Szota0%
Szymon Sobczak0%
Damian Węglarz0%
João Oliveira0%
Dominick Zator0%
Julien Celestine0%
Dawid Kocyła0%
Jędrzej Grobelny0%
Alassane Sidibe0%
Eduardo Espiau0%
Hide Vitalucci0%
Marcel Predenkiewicz0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Vladislavs Gutkovskis31%
Oskar Kubiak14%
Nazariy Rusyn13%
Dawid Abramowicz7%
Kamil Jakubczyk6%
Sebastian Kerk6%
Kike Hermoso5%
Eduardo Espiau3%
Dawid Kocyła3%
Marc Navarro0%
Aurélien Nguiamba0%
Tornike Gaprindashvili0%
Michał Marcjanik0%
Patryk Szysz0%
Dawid Gojny0%
Michał Rzuchowski0%
Serafin Szota0%
Szymon Sobczak0%
Damian Węglarz0%
Luis Perea0%
João Oliveira0%
Dominick Zator0%
Julien Celestine0%
Jędrzej Grobelny0%
Alassane Sidibe0%
Diego Percan0%
Hide Vitalucci0%
Marcel Predenkiewicz0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (20)
€22m
ML (20)
€19m
WK (24)
€13m
GK (26)
€13m
WP (25)
€12m
AG (23)
€5m
PW (25)
€5m
ML (24)
€4m
OO (24)
€4m
NIE (16)
€4m
SR (18)
€3m
CG (20)
€3m
POD (5)
€1m
Lechia Gdansk's squad is €17m more valuable than Arka Gdynia's (€22m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (8)
€15m
ML (10)
€10m
WK (8)
€6m
WP (7)
€4m
GK (7)
€3m
PW (13)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
OO (8)
€2m
NIE (7)
€2m
ML (7)
€1m
SR (9)
€1m
CG (7)
€1m
POD (1)
€0m
Lechia Gdansk's attack is €13m more valuable than Arka Gdynia's (€15m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GK (10)
€6m
LG (3)
€5m
WP (9)
€3m
ML (2)
€2m
WK (4)
€2m
ML (10)
€2m
NIE (5)
€2m
OO (8)
€1m
AG (5)
€1m
CG (6)
€1m
PW (2)
€0m
SR (2)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
Lechia Gdansk's midfield is €4m more valuable than Arka Gdynia's (€5m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ML (8)
€6m
WP (9)
€6m
WK (12)
€5m
GK (9)
€4m
LG (9)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
PW (10)
€2m
CG (7)
€1m
SR (7)
€1m
ML (7)
€1m
OO (8)
€1m
NIE (4)
€1m
POD (2)
€0m
Lechia Gdansk and Arka Gdynia have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Poland: I Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →
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GKS Katowice
Motor Lublin
Górnik Łęczna
Odra Opole
Miedz Legnica
Wisla Plock
Tychy 71
Wisla Krakow
Stal Rzeszów
Znicz Pruszków
Chrobry Głogów
Nieciecza
Polonia Warszawa
Resovia Rzeszów
Podbeskidzie
Zaglebie Sosnowiec