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Leevon / PPK vs Rēzekne FA Result & Analysis

Date: 01/08/2026
Time: 16:00
Final 2-1
Leevon / PPK
Leevon / PPK
Vs
55%
22%
22%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Rēzekne FA
Rēzekne FA
Latvia: 1. Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Squad value14 Games History15 Overall Statistics16 League Table
Match preview & prediction

In the Latvia: 1. Liga, Leevon / PPK host Rēzekne FA on August 1. The home side's recent form is impressive, having won four of their last five matches, including a 1-0 victory over Mārupe. In contrast, Rēzekne FA have struggled, suffering five consecutive defeats, including a 1-5 loss to Skanste. This high-scoring match is expected to yield 3.5 goals, with a most likely total of 3 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 9.5%.

Leevon / PPK have a strong home record, scoring an average of 2.67 goals at home and conceding just 1.5 goals. In comparison, Rēzekne FA have struggled on the road, scoring 1.3 goals against stronger opponents and conceding 3.4 goals. The model predicts a home win, with a 55% probability, making it the favourite. The away win percentage is 22%, while the draw percentage is 22%. The model's selection is the Over 1.5, with a probability of 87.5%.

Results analysis

The win extends Leevon / PPK's run to 4 games, with their latest victory coming at the expense of Rēzekne FA. The final score of 2-1 reflected the actual result, a home win, which was the model's call. The model correctly identified the favourite, Leevon / PPK, with a pre-match probability of 55%. The model's selection of a home win proved correct. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 87.5%, while the most likely total goals was 3, with a probability of 22%.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Leevon / PPK win✓ Hit
55.5%
Avg Implied 77.1% · @ 1.17
Edge
-21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Dafabet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Draw✗ Miss
22.2%
Avg Implied 13.5% · @ 6.66
Edge
+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.95
1xBet
6.95
Pinnacle
6.79
Rēzekne FA win✗ Miss
22.4%
Avg Implied 9.4% · @ 9.65
Edge
+13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
13.00
10Bet
12.00
1xBet
10.20
Marathonbet
9.80
William Hil
9.50

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-332W21W01L03L11D00D21W11D32W21WH·SMI30/08H·RĪG14/09A·JDF20/09H·RIG27/09A·SKA04/10H·MĀR19/10A·RĒZ26/10A·PRO01/11H·JFK08/11H·SKA25/07
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.571.931.731.071.40
vs Stronger (21)1.761.482.501.601.091.36
vs Similar (6)0.672.000.332.671.001.33
vs Weaker (3)1.331.331.501.001.002.00
Clean sheet %17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Rēzekne FA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Rēzekne FARēzekne FA

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-621W12L50W21W06L12L22D34L01L12LA·TUK13/09H·SKA21/09A·AUG27/09H·MĀR05/10A·RIG18/10H·LEE26/10A·SMI01/11H·PRO08/11A·SMI19/07H·MĀR25/07
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.332.201.211.711.442.62
vs Stronger (12)0.921.750.671.501.172.00
vs Similar (13)1.692.621.832.001.573.14
vs Weaker (5)1.402.201.001.501.672.67
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Leevon / PPK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%119%222%319%413%515%6+
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.5%
@ 1.04-2.1%
Under 1.5
12.5%
@ 9.00+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Under
1xBet
9.00
Betfair
9.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
68.4%
@ 1.21-7.0%
Under 2.5
31.6%
@ 3.73+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
Under
Betfair
4.00
1xBet
3.80
Marathonbet
3.80
Superbet
3.55
Bet365
3.50
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
46.9%
@ 1.56-11.6%
Under 3.5
53.1%
@ 2.20+11.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.59
Marathonbet
1.57
Betfair
1.57
1xBet
1.57
10Bet
1.55
Under
Betfair
2.25
Pinnacle
2.24
1xBet
2.23
Marathonbet
2.23
Superbet
2.17
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
66.5%
@ 1.60+9.0%
No
33.5%
@ 2.16-9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.65
Marathonbet
1.63
1xBet
1.63
Superbet
1.57
William Hil
1.50
No
William Hil
2.30
Superbet
2.25
Betfair
2.10
1xBet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.06

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.5%@ 14.00+6.5%
2-1 ✓
9.4%@ 9.08+4.9%
2-0
7.0%@ 8.40+2.0%
3-1
6.8%@ 9.07+2.3%
2-2
6.3%@ 17.50+4.0%
1-2
5.8%@ 26.33+4.3%
1-0
5.5%@ 12.50+2.2%
3-0
5.1%@ 8.30+0.1%
Leevon / PPK goals ↓
Rēzekne FA goals →
01234
03.8%3.1%2.7%1.2%0.4%
15.5%9.5%5.8%2.6%0.9%
27.0%9.4%6.3%2.9%1.0%
35.1%6.8%4.6%2.1%0.7%
42.8%3.7%2.5%1.1%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Leevon / PPK goals (down), columns = Rēzekne FA goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Riga Mariners
2.23
JDFS Alberts
2.23
Metta / LU
1.84
Super Nova 2
1.84
JFK Ventspils
1.65
Rīgas FS II
1.58
Skanste
1.54
Valmiera / BSS
1.40
Leevon / PPK
1.38
Mārupe
1.23
Rēzekne FA
1.19
Smiltene
1.08
Riga FC II
0.92
Tukums II
0.88
Leevon / PPK is 0.19 points better than Rēzekne FA in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 1.19).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Riga Mariners
2.85
JDFS Alberts
2.31
Metta / LU
2.19
Super Nova 2
2.19
Rīgas FS II
1.77
Smiltene
1.77
Valmiera / BSS
1.66
Leevon / PPK
1.54
JFK Ventspils
1.54
Tukums II
1.42
Skanste
1.38
Rēzekne FA
1.38
Riga FC II
1.35
Mārupe
1.15
Leevon / PPK is 0.15 goals better than Rēzekne FA in terms of goals scored per game (1.54 vs 1.38).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
JDFS Alberts
0.92
JFK Ventspils
1.12
Rīgas FS II
1.19
Metta / LU
1.26
Super Nova 2
1.26
Mārupe
1.27
Riga Mariners
1.31
Skanste
1.50
Leevon / PPK
1.54
Riga FC II
1.65
Valmiera / BSS
1.66
Smiltene
1.85
Rēzekne FA
2.19
Tukums II
2.31
Leevon / PPK is 0.65 goals better than Rēzekne FA in terms of goals conceded per game (1.54 vs 2.19).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W01L00D01L11D00D20W01L10W11DH·SMI30/08H·RĪG14/09A·JDF20/09H·RIG27/09A·SKA04/10H·MĀR19/10A·RĒZ26/10A·PRO01/11H·JFK08/11H·SKA25/07
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.830.870.870.400.80
vs Stronger (21)0.810.711.200.700.450.73
vs Similar (6)0.001.170.001.330.001.00
vs Weaker (3)0.671.000.501.001.001.00
Clean sheet %40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Rēzekne FA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Rēzekne FARēzekne FA

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D01L10W11D02L02L11D01L01L00DA·TUK13/09H·SKA21/09A·AUG27/09H·MĀR05/10A·RIG18/10H·LEE26/10A·SMI01/11H·PRO08/11A·SMI19/07H·MĀR25/07
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.571.000.360.640.751.31
vs Stronger (12)0.420.750.170.670.670.83
vs Similar (13)0.691.080.670.500.711.57
vs Weaker (5)0.601.400.001.001.001.67
Clean sheet %47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Leevon / PPK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Leevon / PPK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L20W01L02L00D00D01L10W22D10WH·SMI30/08H·RĪG14/09A·JDF20/09H·RIG27/09A·SKA04/10H·MĀR19/10A·RĒZ26/10A·PRO01/11H·JFK08/11H·SKA25/07
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.731.070.870.670.60
vs Stronger (21)0.950.761.300.900.640.64
vs Similar (6)0.670.830.331.331.000.33
vs Weaker (3)0.670.331.000.000.001.00
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Rēzekne FA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Rēzekne FARēzekne FA

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W11D40W10W04L10W11D33D00D12LA·TUK13/09H·SKA21/09A·AUG27/09H·MĀR05/10A·RIG18/10H·LEE26/10A·SMI01/11H·PRO08/11A·SMI19/07H·MĀR25/07
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.771.200.861.070.691.31
vs Stronger (12)0.501.000.500.830.501.17
vs Similar (13)1.001.541.171.500.861.57
vs Weaker (5)0.800.801.000.500.671.00
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Leevon / PPK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Leevon / PPK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rēzekne FA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.587.5%1.04
1xBet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
----2.1%✓ Hit

💰 13. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
M/L (23)
€0m
SN2 (27)
€0m
L/P (38)
€0m
RFI (27)
€0m
TI (30)
€0m
JA (32)
€0m
RM (29)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (0)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
M/L (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
SN2 (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (0)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
M/L (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
SN2 (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (0)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
M/L (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
SN2 (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 14. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
4
L/P wins
0
Draws
0
RF wins

Head-to-head

Leevon / PPK vs Rēzekne FA · H/A from L/P
DateH/AGameScore
26/10/25ARēzekne FA Vs L/P1-2
29/06/25HL/P Vs Rēzekne FA6-2
05/10/24ARēzekne FA Vs L/P0-7
15/06/24HL/P Vs Rēzekne FA4-1

Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/07/26HL/P Vs Skanste2-1
08/11/25HL/P Vs JFK Ventspils3-2
01/11/25AProgress / AFA Olaine Vs L/P1-1
26/10/25ARēzekne FA Vs L/P1-2
19/10/25HL/P Vs Mārupe0-0
04/10/25ASkanste Vs L/P1-1
27/09/25HL/P Vs Riga FC II0-3
20/09/25AJDFS Alberts Vs L/P1-0
14/09/25HL/P Vs Rīgas FS II2-1
30/08/25HL/P Vs Smiltene3-2

Rēzekne FARēzekne FA

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/07/26HRF Vs Mārupe1-2
19/07/26ASmiltene Vs RF1-0
08/11/25HRF Vs Progress / AFA Olaine3-4
01/11/25ASmiltene Vs RF2-2
26/10/25HRF Vs Leevon / PPK1-2
18/10/25ARiga Mariners Vs RF6-0
05/10/25HRF Vs Mārupe2-1
27/09/25AAugšdaugava Vs RF0-5
21/09/25HRF Vs Skanste1-2
13/09/25ATukums II Vs RF1-2

📊 15. Overall Statistics

Leevon / PPK
Leevon / PPK
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWDWW1.22
HomeWLDWW1.52
AwayLLDWD0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%44%24%
AVG goals2.923.322.52
Over 1.5 %74%80%68%
Over 2.5 %58%64%52%
Over 3.5 %32%44%20%
Scored1.401.681.12
Conceded1.521.641.40
BTTS56%64%48%
Clean Sheet18%12%24%
Corners---
Cards---
Rēzekne FA
Rēzekne FA
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLLL0.82
HomeLWLLL0.88
AwayWWLDL0.76
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %20%24%16%
AVG goals3.663.244.08
Over 1.5 %88%80%96%
Over 2.5 %70%68%72%
Over 3.5 %40%28%52%
Scored1.040.961.12
Conceded2.622.282.96
BTTS56%56%56%
Clean Sheet10%16%4%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 16. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS515
100%
3.0
163+13
3.8
100%
100%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.20.6
-
2Metta / LUMetta / LU513
80%
2.6
293+26
6.4
100%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0005.80.6
-
3Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK412
100%
3.0
94+5
3.2
75%
75%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
4JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts511
60%
2.2
104+6
2.8
100%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.00.8
-
5Riga MarinersRiga Mariners37
67%
2.3
83+5
3.7
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.71.0
-
6SkansteSkanste57
40%
1.4
119+2
4.0
100%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.8
-
7SmilteneSmiltene56
40%
1.2
914-5
4.6
80%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.82.8
-
8MārupeMārupe66
33%
1.0
715-8
3.7
83%
83%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.5
-
9Super Nova 2Super Nova 265
17%
0.8
69-3
2.5
100%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.5
-
10Riga FC IIRiga FC II44
25%
1.0
48-4
3.0
100%
75%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
11Tukums IITukums II44
25%
1.0
514-9
4.8
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.23.5
-
12Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II53
20%
0.6
822-14
6.0
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.64.4
-
13JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils41
0%
0.2
38-5
2.8
100%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.0
-
14Rēzekne FARēzekne FA50
0%
0.0
312-9
3.0
80%
60%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.62.4
-
Latvia: 1. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →

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