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Leevon / PPK vs Rīgas FS II Prediction & Stats

Date: 19/09/2026
Time: 16:30
Leevon / PPK
Leevon / PPK
Vs
52%
21%
28%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Rīgas FS II
Rīgas FS II
Latvia: 1. Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Leevon / PPK, riding a five-game winning streak, are set to face Rīga FS II, who have struggled with three consecutive defeats. The model predicts a home win with a 49% chance, a draw at 21%, and an away win at 30%. The expected total goals is 4.2, with the most likely total of 6+ at 25%. The single most probable scoreline is 2-1 for Leevon / PPK, with a 7.6% probability. Leevon / PPK average 2.5 goals scored and 1.42 conceded at home against stronger opposition, while Rīga FS II average 1.58 scored and 2.75 conceded away against weaker teams. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (93.5%), Over 1.5 (92.9%), Home over 0.5 goals (90.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (88.1%), Under 6.5 (86.6%), Away over 0.5 goals (84.5%), Home +2 handicap (84.1%), and Over 2.5 (79.2%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Leevon / PPK win
51.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
20.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II win
27.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D00D21W11D32W21W21W10W42W21WA·SKA04/10H·MĀR19/10A·RĒZ26/10A·PRO01/11H·JFK08/11H·SKA25/07H·RĒZ01/08A·MĀR08/08H·SMI23/08H·SUP29/08
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.701.472.191.691.141.21
vs Stronger (21)2.001.332.731.451.201.20
vs Similar (7)1.002.001.002.751.001.00
vs Weaker (2)1.001.001.000.001.002.00
Clean sheet %17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II

Last 10 – goals for & against
120-1222D20W34L11D02L53W12L112L13L13LA·TUK20/10H·AUG25/10A·RIG01/11A·SMI08/11A·TUK20/07A·SMI25/07A·VAL01/08A·MET08/08H·JDF22/08A·RIG29/08
Avg total
4.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
3.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.801.732.171.081.562.17
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)2.220.673.000.751.600.60
vs Weaker (21)1.622.191.751.251.542.77
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Leevon / PPK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%2%05%114%219%319%416%524%6+
The model estimates around 4.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
92.6%
Under 1.5
7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
78.4%
Under 2.5
21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
59.7%
Under 3.5
40.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
75.9%
No
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
7.9%
1-1
7.3%
2-2
7.0%
3-1
6.3%
1-2
5.8%
3-2
5.6%
2-0
4.5%
2-3
4.1%
Leevon / PPK goals ↓
Rīgas FS II goals →
01234
02.2%2.1%2.4%1.4%0.6%
13.1%7.3%5.8%3.4%1.5%
24.5%7.9%7.0%4.1%1.8%
33.6%6.3%5.6%3.3%1.4%
42.2%3.8%3.3%2.0%0.9%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Leevon / PPK goals (down), columns = Rīgas FS II goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Leevon / PPK
3.00
Valmiera / BSS
3.00
Metta / LU
2.67
Riga Mariners
2.60
JDFS Alberts
2.33
Skanste
1.67
Smiltene
1.00
Mārupe
0.86
Riga FC II
0.83
Tukums II
0.80
Super Nova 2
0.71
Rīgas FS II
0.50
JFK Ventspils
0.40
Rēzekne FA
0.00
Leevon / PPK is 2.50 points better than Rīgas FS II in terms of average points per game (3.00 vs 0.50).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Metta / LU
5.83
Valmiera / BSS
3.67
Skanste
2.83
Riga Mariners
2.80
Leevon / PPK
2.20
JDFS Alberts
2.00
Smiltene
1.50
Rīgas FS II
1.50
Tukums II
1.40
Super Nova 2
1.00
Riga FC II
1.00
Mārupe
1.00
JFK Ventspils
0.80
Rēzekne FA
0.67
Leevon / PPK is 0.70 goals better than Rīgas FS II in terms of goals scored per game (2.20 vs 1.50).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Metta / LU
0.50
Valmiera / BSS
0.67
JDFS Alberts
0.67
Leevon / PPK
1.00
Riga Mariners
1.00
Super Nova 2
1.57
JFK Ventspils
1.80
Skanste
1.83
Riga FC II
2.00
Mārupe
2.43
Rēzekne FA
3.00
Smiltene
3.33
Tukums II
4.00
Rīgas FS II
4.17
Leevon / PPK is 3.17 goals better than Rīgas FS II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 4.17).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Leevon / PPK or Draw
72.3%
Avg Implied -
52%
21%
28%
covers Leevon / PPK + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK or Rīgas FS II
79.3%
Avg Implied -
52%
21%
28%
covers Leevon / PPK + Rīgas FS II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Rīgas FS II
48.4%
Avg Implied -
52%
21%
28%
covers Draw + Rīgas FS II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Leevon / PPK over/under 0.5
Over
90.9%
Under
9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 1.5
Over
69.1%
Under
30.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 2.5
Over
43.0%
Under
57.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 3.5
Over
22.1%
Under
77.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 0.5
Over
82.8%
Under
17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 1.5
Over
52.5%
Under
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 2.5
Over
25.9%
Under
74.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 3.5
Over
10.2%
Under
89.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Leevon / PPK, so a minus line means Leevon / PPK give that many goals of a start and Rīgas FS II receive them. At -1, Leevon / PPK must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Leevon / PPK win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Leevon / PPK)
Leevon / PPK -2
17.3%
Draw -2
15.3%
Rīgas FS II +2
67.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Leevon / PPK)
Leevon / PPK -1
32.6%
Draw -1
19.0%
Rīgas FS II +1
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Leevon / PPK)
Leevon / PPK +1
72.3%
Draw +1
13.8%
Rīgas FS II -1
13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Leevon / PPK)
Leevon / PPK +2
86.1%
Draw +2
8.2%
Rīgas FS II -2
5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D20W01L10W11D10W00D32W21WA·SKA04/10H·MĀR19/10A·RĒZ26/10A·PRO01/11H·JFK08/11H·SKA25/07H·RĒZ01/08A·MĀR08/08H·SMI23/08H·SUP29/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.801.190.880.430.71
vs Stronger (21)1.000.811.450.820.500.80
vs Similar (7)0.290.860.501.250.000.33
vs Weaker (2)1.000.501.000.001.001.00
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
90-910W00D12L00D00D21W12L19L11D01LA·TUK20/10H·AUG25/10A·RIG01/11A·SMI08/11A·TUK20/07A·SMI25/07A·VAL01/08A·MET08/08H·JDF22/08A·RIG29/08
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.831.000.580.671.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)1.330.442.000.500.800.40
vs Weaker (21)0.571.000.500.620.621.23
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Leevon / PPK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Leevon / PPK over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D01L10W22D10W11D10W10W00DA·SKA04/10H·MĀR19/10A·RĒZ26/10A·PRO01/11H·JFK08/11H·SKA25/07H·RĒZ01/08A·MĀR08/08H·SMI23/08H·SUP29/08
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.671.000.810.710.50
vs Stronger (21)1.000.521.270.640.700.40
vs Similar (7)0.711.140.501.501.000.67
vs Weaker (2)0.000.500.000.000.001.00
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Rīgas FS II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L20W22D11D02L32W00D03L02L12LA·TUK20/10H·AUG25/10A·RIG01/11A·SMI08/11A·TUK20/07A·SMI25/07A·VAL01/08A·MET08/08H·JDF22/08A·RIG29/08
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.901.170.500.891.17
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.890.221.000.250.800.20
vs Weaker (21)1.051.191.250.620.921.54
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Leevon / PPK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Leevon / PPK over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rīgas FS II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.593.9%-------
Over 1.592.6%-------
Home over 0.5 goals90.9%-------
Away under 3.5 goals89.8%-------
Under 6.587.2%-------
Home +2 handicap86.1%-------
Away over 0.5 goals82.8%-------
Home or Away79.3%-------
Over 2.578.4%-------
Home under 3.5 goals77.9%-------
Under 5.576.0%-------
BTTS Yes75.9%-------
Away under 2.5 goals74.1%-------
Home or Draw72.3%-------
Home +1 handicap72.3%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (3)
€0m
M/L (4)
€0m
L/P (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (2)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
RFI (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SN2 (1)
€0m
M/L (1)
€0m
L/P (1)
€0m
RM (1)
€0m
JA (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
TI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
M/L (2)
€0m
JA (1)
€0m
TI (1)
€0m
L/P (0)
€0m
SN2 (0)
€0m
RFI (0)
€0m
RM (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
1
L/P wins
0
Draws
3
RFI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Leevon / PPK vs Rīgas FS II · H/A from L/P
DateH/AGameScore
14/09/25HL/P Vs Rīgas FS II2-1
03/05/25ARīgas FS II Vs L/P2-1
20/10/24ARīgas FS II Vs L/P1-0
28/06/24HL/P Vs Rīgas FS II1-2

Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26HL/P Vs Super Nova 22-1
23/08/26HL/P Vs Smiltene4-2
08/08/26AMārupe Vs L/P0-1
01/08/26HL/P Vs Rēzekne FA2-1
25/07/26HL/P Vs Skanste2-1
08/11/25HL/P Vs JFK Ventspils3-2
01/11/25AProgress / AFA Olaine Vs L/P1-1
26/10/25ARēzekne FA Vs L/P1-2
19/10/25HL/P Vs Mārupe0-0
04/10/25ASkanste Vs L/P1-1

Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26ARiga Mariners Vs RFI3-1
22/08/26HRFI Vs JDFS Alberts1-3
08/08/26AMetta / LU Vs RFI12-1
01/08/26AValmiera / BSS Vs RFI2-1
25/07/26ASmiltene Vs RFI3-5
20/07/26ATukums II Vs RFI2-0
08/11/25ASmiltene Vs RFI1-1
01/11/25ARiga Mariners Vs RFI4-3
25/10/25HRFI Vs Augšdaugava2-0
20/10/25ATukums II Vs RFI2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Leevon / PPK
Leevon / PPK
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW1.34
HomeWWWWW1.69
AwayLDWDW0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%50%25%
AVG goals3.043.542.50
Over 1.5 %76%85%67%
Over 2.5 %62%73%50%
Over 3.5 %34%46%21%
Scored1.501.851.12
Conceded1.541.691.38
BTTS60%73%46%
Clean Sheet16%8%25%
Corners---
Cards---
Rīgas FS II
Rīgas FS II
Latvia: 1. Liga
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLLL1.70
HomeWWLWL2.13
AwayLWLLL1.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%70%33%
AVG goals3.343.483.22
Over 1.5 %86%91%81%
Over 2.5 %64%65%63%
Over 3.5 %38%52%26%
Scored1.922.431.48
Conceded1.421.041.74
BTTS58%57%59%
Clean Sheet32%35%30%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Valmiera / BSSValmiera / BSS618
100%
3.0
224+18
4.3
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.70.7
-
2Metta / LUMetta / LU616
83%
2.7
353+32
6.3
100%
83%
83%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0005.80.5
-
3Leevon / PPKLeevon / PPK515
100%
3.0
115+6
3.2
80%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
4JDFS AlbertsJDFS Alberts614
67%
2.3
124+8
2.7
100%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.00.7
-
5Riga MarinersRiga Mariners513
80%
2.6
145+9
3.8
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.0
-
6SkansteSkanste610
50%
1.7
1711+6
4.7
100%
83%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.8
-
7MārupeMārupe76
29%
0.9
717-10
3.4
86%
71%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.4
-
8SmilteneSmiltene66
33%
1.0
920-11
4.8
83%
83%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.53.3
-
9Super Nova 2Super Nova 275
14%
0.7
711-4
2.6
100%
57%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
10Riga FC IIRiga FC II65
17%
0.8
612-6
3.0
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
11Tukums IITukums II54
20%
0.8
720-13
5.4
100%
60%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.44.0
-
12Rīgas FS IIRīgas FS II63
17%
0.5
925-16
5.7
100%
83%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.54.2
-
13JFK VentspilsJFK Ventspils52
0%
0.4
49-5
2.6
100%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
14Rēzekne FARēzekne FA60
0%
0.0
418-14
3.7
83%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.73.0
-
Latvia: 1. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →

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