Leevon / PPK are on a 4-game winning run at home, but their recent form is marked by a narrow 1-0 victory over Mārupe. They average 3 goals scored and 1.5 conceded at home, particularly against similar opponents. Smiltene, on the other hand, are coming off a 1-4 defeat away to Valmiera / BSS, but their away form shows they score and concede an average of 1.83 goals against similar opponents.
The model predicts a high-scoring match, with an expected total of 3.3 goals and the most likely score being 3 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 10.8%. The model's selection is the away win, with a 43% probability of occurring.
The home side's home win percentage is 32%, the draw percentage is 25%, and the away win percentage is 43%. The model's suggested picks include Over 1.5, with a 85.5% probability of occurring.
Results analysis
The upset came as Leevon / PPK, on a five-game winning streak, edged Smiltene 4-2, overturning the model’s favourite of an away win at 43 %. The pre-match pick was wrong, but the model’s selections largely held. It hit the Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.7 %, the Under 7.5 at 97.9 %, the Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.7 %, the Under 6.5 at 94.7 %, and the Home under 2.5 2H goals at 93.3 %. It missed the Home under 2.5 HT goals at 94.0 %, the Home under 3.5 goals at 93.0 %, and the Away under 1.5 HT goals at 90.8 %. The final score of 4-2 confirmed the home win, leaving the model’s prediction incorrect.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Leevon / PPK win✓ Hit
32.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Smiltene win✗ Miss
43.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Leevon / PPK
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.40
1.93
1.67
1.07
1.13
vs Stronger (22)
1.73
1.23
2.36
1.36
1.09
1.09
vs Similar (6)
0.83
2.17
0.67
3.33
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Smiltene) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Smiltene
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.93
2.00
2.25
1.50
1.57
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
2.50
1.50
3.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (16)
2.00
1.56
2.38
1.50
1.62
1.62
vs Weaker (8)
1.75
2.25
1.75
3.00
1.75
1.50
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Leevon / PPK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.5%
Under 1.5
14.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
64.7%
Under 2.5
35.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
42.6%
Under 3.5
57.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
66.4%
No
33.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.8%
1-2
8.8%
2-1
7.6%
2-2
6.8%
0-2
5.8%
0-1
5.4%
1-3
5.3%
0-0
4.6%
Leevon / PPK goals ↓
Smiltene goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.6%
5.4%
5.8%
3.4%
1.5%
1
4.5%
11%
8.8%
5.3%
2.4%
2
4.2%
7.6%
6.8%
4.1%
1.8%
3
2.2%
3.9%
3.5%
2.1%
0.9%
4
0.8%
1.5%
1.3%
0.8%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Leevon / PPK goals (down), columns = Smiltene goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leevon / PPK
3.00
Valmiera / BSS
3.00
Metta / LU
2.67
Riga Mariners
2.60
JDFS Alberts
2.33
Skanste
1.67
Smiltene
1.00
Mārupe
0.86
Riga FC II
0.83
Tukums II
0.80
Super Nova 2
0.71
Rīgas FS II
0.50
JFK Ventspils
0.40
Rēzekne FA
0.00
Leevon / PPK is 2.00 points better than Smiltene in terms of average points per game (3.00 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Metta / LU
5.83
Valmiera / BSS
3.67
Skanste
2.83
Riga Mariners
2.80
Leevon / PPK
2.20
JDFS Alberts
2.00
Smiltene
1.50
Rīgas FS II
1.50
Tukums II
1.40
Super Nova 2
1.00
Riga FC II
1.00
Mārupe
1.00
JFK Ventspils
0.80
Rēzekne FA
0.67
Leevon / PPK is 0.70 goals better than Smiltene in terms of goals scored per game (2.20 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Metta / LU
0.50
Valmiera / BSS
0.67
JDFS Alberts
0.67
Leevon / PPK
1.00
Riga Mariners
1.00
Super Nova 2
1.57
JFK Ventspils
1.80
Skanste
1.83
Riga FC II
2.00
Mārupe
2.43
Rēzekne FA
3.00
Smiltene
3.33
Tukums II
4.00
Rīgas FS II
4.17
Leevon / PPK is 2.33 goals better than Smiltene in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 3.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Leevon / PPK or Draw✓ Hit
57.0%
Avg Implied -
32%
25%
43%
covers Leevon / PPK + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK or Smiltene✓ Hit
75.3%
Avg Implied -
32%
25%
43%
covers Leevon / PPK + Smiltene
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Smiltene✗ Miss
67.7%
Avg Implied -
32%
25%
43%
covers Draw + Smiltene
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Leevon / PPK over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
78.5%
Under
21.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
45.4%
Under
54.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
20.0%
Under
80.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
7.0%
Under
93.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
83.4%
Under
16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
53.5%
Under
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
26.8%
Under
73.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
10.8%
Under
89.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Leevon / PPK, so a minus line means Leevon / PPK give that many goals of a start and Smiltene receive them. At -1, Leevon / PPK must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Leevon / PPK win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Leevon / PPK)Actual: Draw
Leevon / PPK -2
6.1%
Draw -2
9.7%
Smiltene +2
84.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Leevon / PPK)Actual: Leevon / PPK
Leevon / PPK -1
15.8%
Draw -1
16.5%
Smiltene +1
67.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Leevon / PPK)Actual: Leevon / PPK
Leevon / PPK +1
57.0%
Draw +1
19.4%
Smiltene -1
23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Leevon / PPK)Actual: Leevon / PPK
Leevon / PPK +2
76.4%
Draw +2
13.2%
Smiltene -2
10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Leevon / PPK
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.70
0.93
0.73
0.40
0.67
vs Stronger (22)
0.82
0.68
1.18
0.64
0.45
0.73
vs Similar (6)
0.00
0.83
0.00
1.33
0.00
0.33
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Smiltene) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Smiltene
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.03
1.12
1.12
0.43
0.93
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.33
0.50
1.75
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (16)
1.00
0.88
1.50
0.62
0.50
1.12
vs Weaker (8)
0.62
1.12
1.00
1.50
0.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Leevon / PPK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
74.0%
Under 0.5
26.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
38.4%
Under 1.5
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
15.4%
Under 2.5
84.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Leevon / PPK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
59.7%
Under
40.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
19.9%
Under
80.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
6.0%
Under
94.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
38.8%
Under
61.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
9.2%
Under
90.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Leevon / PPK
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.70
1.00
0.93
0.67
0.47
vs Stronger (22)
0.91
0.55
1.18
0.73
0.64
0.36
vs Similar (6)
0.83
1.33
0.67
2.00
1.00
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Smiltene) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Smiltene
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.90
0.88
1.12
1.07
0.64
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.17
1.00
1.25
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
1.00
0.69
0.88
0.88
1.12
0.50
vs Weaker (8)
1.12
1.12
0.75
1.50
1.50
0.75
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Leevon / PPK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
79.4%
Under 0.5
20.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
48.6%
Under 1.5
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
21.4%
Under 2.5
78.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Leevon / PPK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
61.9%
Under
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
24.4%
Under
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.7%
Under
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
48.8%
Under
51.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
15.3%
Under
84.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Smiltene over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 3.5 goals
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Latvia: 1. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Valmiera / BSS
Metta / LU
JDFS Alberts
Riga Mariners
Skanste
Mārupe
Super Nova 2
Riga FC II
Tukums II
Rīgas FS II
JFK Ventspils
Rēzekne FA