The high-scoring nature of this fixture is clear from the numbers: the model expects an average of 4.2 goals and predicts a 6+ total with a 24% chance, while the most likely scoreline is 1-2 for the visitors, a 8.3% probability. Leevon / PPK, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 2.73 goals scored and 1.45 conceded, whereas Valmiera / BSS, on the road against a weaker side, scores 3.88 and concedes 1.25. The model favours an away win, with probabilities of 20% for a home victory, 19% for a draw and 61% for a Valmiera win. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 goals at 93.9%, Home under 3.5 goals at 93.4%, Away over 0.5 goals at 92.9%, Over 1.5 at 92.5%, Away +2 handicap at 91.1%, Under 6.5 at 87.3%, Home or Away at 81.1%, and Home under 2.5 goals at 80.8%. Both teams are on five-game winning runs, adding extra confidence to the projected outcome.
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šÆ 1. Model Analysis
Leevon / PPK win
19.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
18.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS win
61.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ā½ 2. Goal Analysis
Leevon / PPK
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.47
2.19
1.69
1.14
1.21
vs Stronger (21)
2.00
1.33
2.73
1.45
1.20
1.20
vs Similar (7)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.75
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera / BSS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Valmiera / BSS
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
3.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.70
1.10
2.62
1.12
2.79
1.07
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (10)
1.50
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.60
0.80
vs Weaker (18)
3.56
1.00
3.30
0.80
3.88
1.25
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Leevon / PPK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
92.5%
Under 1.5
7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
78.3%
Under 2.5
21.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
59.6%
Under 3.5
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
72.9%
No
27.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
8.3%
1-3
7.3%
1-1
6.9%
2-2
6.3%
0-2
5.5%
2-3
5.5%
0-3
4.9%
1-4
4.9%
Leevon / PPK goals ↓
Valmiera / BSS goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.2%
3.5%
5.5%
4.9%
3.2%
1
1.7%
6.9%
8.3%
7.3%
4.9%
2
1.8%
4.7%
6.3%
5.5%
3.7%
3
0.9%
2.4%
3.1%
2.8%
1.8%
4
0.3%
0.9%
1.2%
1.0%
0.7%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Leevon / PPK goals (down), columns = Valmiera / BSS goals (across).
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šŖ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
š Total PPG
Points / game
Leevon / PPK
3.00
Valmiera / BSS
3.00
Metta / LU
2.67
Riga Mariners
2.60
JDFS Alberts
2.33
Skanste
1.67
Smiltene
1.00
MÄrupe
0.86
Riga FC II
0.83
Tukums II
0.80
Super Nova 2
0.71
RÄ«gas FS II
0.50
JFK Ventspils
0.40
RÄzekne FA
0.00
Leevon / PPK and Valmiera / BSS are level in average points per game (both 3.00).
āļø Attack
Goals scored / game
Metta / LU
5.83
Valmiera / BSS
3.67
Skanste
2.83
Riga Mariners
2.80
Leevon / PPK
2.20
JDFS Alberts
2.00
Smiltene
1.50
RÄ«gas FS II
1.50
Tukums II
1.40
Super Nova 2
1.00
Riga FC II
1.00
MÄrupe
1.00
JFK Ventspils
0.80
RÄzekne FA
0.67
Leevon / PPK is 1.47 goals worse than Valmiera / BSS in terms of goals scored per game (2.20 vs 3.67).
š”ļø Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Metta / LU
0.50
Valmiera / BSS
0.67
JDFS Alberts
0.67
Leevon / PPK
1.00
Riga Mariners
1.00
Super Nova 2
1.57
JFK Ventspils
1.80
Skanste
1.83
Riga FC II
2.00
MÄrupe
2.43
RÄzekne FA
3.00
Smiltene
3.33
Tukums II
4.00
RÄ«gas FS II
4.17
Leevon / PPK is 0.33 goals worse than Valmiera / BSS in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.67).
ā±ļø Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
š² 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
š 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Leevon / PPK or Draw
38.6%
Avg Implied -
20%
19%
61%
covers Leevon / PPK + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK or Valmiera / BSS
81.1%
Avg Implied -
20%
19%
61%
covers Leevon / PPK + Valmiera / BSS
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Valmiera / BSS
80.3%
Avg Implied -
20%
19%
61%
covers Draw + Valmiera / BSS
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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š„ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Leevon / PPK over/under 0.5
Over
77.8%
Under
22.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 1.5
Over
44.4%
Under
55.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 2.5
Over
19.2%
Under
80.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 3.5
Over
6.6%
Under
93.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 0.5
Over
92.9%
Under
7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 1.5
Over
74.2%
Under
25.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 2.5
Over
49.3%
Under
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 3.5
Over
27.4%
Under
72.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
āļø 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Leevon / PPK, so a minus line means Leevon / PPK give that many goals of a start and Valmiera / BSS receive them. At -1, Leevon / PPK must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Leevon / PPK win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Leevon / PPK)
Leevon / PPK -2
3.2%
Draw -2
5.7%
Valmiera / BSS +2
91.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Leevon / PPK)
Leevon / PPK -1
8.9%
Draw -1
10.9%
Valmiera / BSS +1
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Leevon / PPK)
Leevon / PPK +1
38.6%
Draw +1
19.6%
Valmiera / BSS -1
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Leevon / PPK)
Leevon / PPK +2
58.2%
Draw +2
17.6%
Valmiera / BSS -2
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
ā±ļø 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Leevon / PPK
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.80
1.19
0.88
0.43
0.71
vs Stronger (21)
1.00
0.81
1.45
0.82
0.50
0.80
vs Similar (7)
0.29
0.86
0.50
1.25
0.00
0.33
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera / BSS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Valmiera / BSS
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.57
1.44
0.50
1.29
0.64
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.90
0.60
0.80
0.80
1.00
0.40
vs Weaker (18)
1.78
0.50
1.90
0.30
1.62
0.75
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Leevon / PPK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
š„ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Leevon / PPK over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ā±ļø 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Leevon / PPK
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.67
1.00
0.81
0.71
0.50
vs Stronger (21)
1.00
0.52
1.27
0.64
0.70
0.40
vs Similar (7)
0.71
1.14
0.50
1.50
1.00
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Valmiera / BSS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Valmiera / BSS
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.53
1.19
0.62
1.50
0.43
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
2.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.60
0.60
0.80
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (18)
1.78
0.50
1.40
0.50
2.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Leevon / PPK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
š„ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Leevon / PPK over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leevon / PPK over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valmiera / BSS over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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š„ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 1.5 goals
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS Yes
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Latvia: 1. Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Latvia: 1. Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Metta / LU
JDFS Alberts
Riga Mariners
Skanste
MÄrupe
Smiltene
Super Nova 2
Riga FC II
Tukums II
RÄ«gas FS II
JFK Ventspils
RÄzekne FA