The match between Leganes and Mirandes is a tight affair, with no clear favourite emerging from the data. The model favours a home win, giving Leganes a 41 % chance, a draw 27 %, and Mirandes 32 %. The expected total goals is 2.9, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 24 %. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.7 % probability. Leganes, playing at home against a similar-strength opponent, averages 1.13 goals scored and 1.20 conceded, while Mirandes, away from home, averages 1.25 goals scored and 2.17 conceded against similar opposition. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls (93.9 %), Over 2.5 cards (92.0 %), Over 21.5 fouls (87.0 %), Over 3.5 cards (81.4 %), Over 1.5 goals (79.5 % but marked miss), Over 23.5 fouls (76.5 %), and Under 11.5 corners (74.3 %). Each pick is presented with its exact probability.
Results analysis
Leganes’ recent win over Oviedo has kept their momentum alive as they faced Mirandes, who were coming off a defeat. The model’s favourite, a Home win, proved correct with a 1-0 victory, matching the predicted final score. The pre-match probability for Leganes to win was 41 %. The model’s selections largely performed: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 93.9 %, Over 2.5 cards at 92.0 %, Over 21.5 fouls at 87.0 %, Over 3.5 cards at 81.4 %, Over 23.5 fouls at 76.5 %, and Under 11.5 corners at 74.3 %. Only Over 1.5 missed, with a probability of 79.5 %. The match confirmed the model’s accuracy and the overall form narrative.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Leganes win✓ Hit
41.0%
Avg Implied 45.5% · @ 2.00
Edge
-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.0%
Avg Implied 26.8% · @ 3.39
Edge
+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mirandes win✗ Miss
31.9%
Avg Implied 27.7% · @ 3.29
Edge
+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Leganes
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.47
1.13
1.20
1.00
1.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.07
1.47
1.13
1.20
1.00
1.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Mirandes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mirandes
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.67
1.18
1.35
1.15
2.08
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (29)
1.21
1.69
1.18
1.35
1.25
2.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-25pp vs league)
This opponent (Leganes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
79.5%
Under 1.5
20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
55.1%
@ 1.80+3.5%
Under 2.5
44.9%
@ 1.92-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.7%
Under 3.5
67.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
59.2%
No
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%
2-1
8.9%
1-2
7.8%
1-0 ✓
7.5%
0-0
6.7%
2-0
6.7%
0-1
6.3%
2-2
6.0%
Leganes goals ↓
Mirandes goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.7%
6.3%
5.0%
2.2%
0.8%
1
7.5%
13%
7.8%
3.5%
1.2%
2
6.7%
8.9%
6.0%
2.7%
0.9%
3
3.4%
4.6%
3.1%
1.4%
0.5%
4
1.3%
1.8%
1.2%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Leganes goals (down), columns = Mirandes goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Racing Santander
1.95
Deportivo La Coruna
1.83
Malaga
1.76
Almeria
1.72
Burgos
1.71
Las Palmas
1.68
Castellón
1.66
Eibar
1.60
AD Ceuta FC
1.45
Sporting Gijon
1.45
Cordoba
1.45
Albacete
1.40
FC Andorra
1.38
Granada CF
1.14
Real Sociedad II
1.12
Leganes
1.10
Valladolid
1.10
Cadiz
1.02
Mirandes
0.95
Huesca
0.90
Cultural Leonesa
0.88
Zaragoza
0.86
Leganes is 0.14 points better than Mirandes in terms of average points per game (1.10 vs 0.95).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Racing Santander
2.14
Almeria
1.87
Malaga
1.72
Castellón
1.66
Deportivo La Coruna
1.55
FC Andorra
1.48
Sporting Gijon
1.43
Cordoba
1.36
Albacete
1.33
Las Palmas
1.32
Real Sociedad II
1.24
Eibar
1.24
AD Ceuta FC
1.21
Granada CF
1.19
Burgos
1.14
Mirandes
1.12
Valladolid
1.05
Leganes
1.02
Huesca
0.98
Cadiz
0.98
Cultural Leonesa
0.93
Zaragoza
0.83
Leganes is 0.10 goals worse than Mirandes in terms of goals scored per game (1.02 vs 1.12).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Burgos
0.79
Eibar
0.95
Las Palmas
0.95
Deportivo La Coruna
1.05
Malaga
1.17
Leganes
1.21
Castellón
1.25
Sporting Gijon
1.29
FC Andorra
1.29
Albacete
1.31
Granada CF
1.33
Valladolid
1.36
Zaragoza
1.40
Real Sociedad II
1.45
Racing Santander
1.45
Cordoba
1.45
Cadiz
1.45
Almeria
1.48
AD Ceuta FC
1.50
Huesca
1.50
Cultural Leonesa
1.62
Mirandes
1.64
Leganes is 0.43 goals better than Mirandes in terms of goals conceded per game (1.21 vs 1.64).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Andorra
61%
Cordoba
58%
Las Palmas
56%
Castellón
55%
Racing Santander
52%
Almeria
52%
Malaga
52%
Leganes
51%
Deportivo La Coruna
51%
AD Ceuta FC
51%
Granada CF
50%
Valladolid
50%
Cultural Leonesa
50%
Eibar
49%
Zaragoza
49%
Burgos
46%
Cadiz
46%
Huesca
46%
Sporting Gijon
46%
Real Sociedad II
44%
Mirandes
43%
Albacete
42%
Leganes is 8.0 percentage points better than Mirandes in terms of average possession (51% vs 43%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Leganes
For 4.9 · Against 6.1 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.3 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.3 · Against 13.2 · Total 26.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Mirandes
For 5.6 · Against 4.3 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 3.1 · Total 5.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.3 · Against 14.3 · Total 27.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Leganes
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
10.0
9.1
5.1
5.1
5.0
26.4
27.3
25.6
vs Stronger (3)
9.3
9.0
9.5
6.0
7.0
5.5
26.3
34.0
22.5
vs Similar (46)
9.5
10.0
9.0
5.1
5.0
5.2
26.4
27.0
25.9
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
48%
52%
44%
76%
79%
73%
86%
83%
88%
% under line
52%
48%
56%
24%
21%
27%
14%
17%
12%
This opponent (Mirandes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mirandes
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.6
8.9
5.4
5.3
5.5
27.6
27.5
27.8
vs Stronger (4)
10.0
9.0
11.0
7.8
6.5
9.0
30.0
34.0
26.0
vs Similar (44)
9.2
9.7
8.7
5.3
5.2
5.5
27.6
26.9
28.3
vs Weaker (2)
10.0
-
10.0
2.0
-
2.0
21.0
-
21.0
% over line
46%
50%
42%
82%
84%
80%
81%
83%
79%
% under line
54%
50%
58%
18%
16%
20%
19%
17%
21%
This opponent (Leganes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Albacete
11.0
Cordoba
10.9
Racing Santander
10.5
Zaragoza
10.1
Castellón
9.9
Huesca
9.7
Almeria
9.7
Sporting Gijon
9.7
Cadiz
9.6
Leganes
9.6
Granada CF
9.3
Eibar
9.3
FC Andorra
9.3
Mirandes
9.2
Deportivo La Coruna
9.2
Malaga
9.2
Real Sociedad II
9.1
Valladolid
9.0
Cultural Leonesa
8.9
AD Ceuta FC
8.9
Burgos
8.6
Las Palmas
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Racing Santander
6.5
Zaragoza
6.2
Castellón
6.1
Burgos
5.9
Real Sociedad II
5.8
Cordoba
5.8
Mirandes
5.6
Granada CF
5.6
Almeria
5.5
Malaga
5.5
FC Andorra
5.5
Valladolid
5.4
Eibar
5.3
AD Ceuta FC
5.3
Cultural Leonesa
5.2
Sporting Gijon
5.2
Deportivo La Coruna
5.1
Huesca
5.1
Leganes
5.1
Cadiz
5.0
Las Palmas
4.7
Albacete
4.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cordoba
29.6
Real Sociedad II
28.4
Valladolid
28.4
Mirandes
27.6
AD Ceuta FC
27.6
FC Andorra
27.4
Castellón
27.2
Granada CF
27.2
Las Palmas
27.2
Racing Santander
27.1
Zaragoza
27.1
Burgos
26.8
Almeria
26.7
Leganes
26.2
Eibar
25.9
Cultural Leonesa
25.9
Cadiz
25.7
Malaga
25.2
Huesca
25.0
Deportivo La Coruna
23.7
Sporting Gijon
22.2
Albacete
21.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
48.9%
Under 9.5
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
81.4%
Under 3.5
18.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
87.0%
Under 21.5
13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Leganes
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.57
0.33
0.53
0.33
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.33
0.57
0.33
0.53
0.33
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Mirandes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mirandes
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.80
0.47
0.82
0.62
0.77
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (29)
0.55
0.83
0.47
0.82
0.67
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Leganes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Leganes over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leganes over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leganes over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mirandes over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mirandes over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mirandes over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Leganes
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.90
0.80
0.67
0.67
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.73
0.90
0.80
0.67
0.67
1.13
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Mirandes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mirandes
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.87
0.71
0.53
0.54
1.31
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (29)
0.66
0.86
0.71
0.53
0.58
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Leganes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Leganes over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leganes over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leganes over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mirandes over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mirandes over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mirandes over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RS (37)
€82m
ALM (35)
€69m
DLC (33)
€58m
LP (36)
€53m
MAL (32)
€35m
VAL (35)
€35m
SG (29)
€33m
GC (31)
€31m
FA (30)
€26m
CAS (40)
€24m
MIR (32)
€23m
BUR (33)
€21m
CAD (32)
€21m
LEG (28)
€20m
COR (29)
€18m
ZAR (36)
€18m
CL (33)
€17m
EIB (31)
€16m
HUE (33)
€16m
ALB (28)
€15m
ACF (30)
€14m
Leganes's squad is €3m less valuable than Mirandes's (€20m vs €23m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DLC (10)
€43m
RS (14)
€42m
ALM (13)
€37m
MAL (11)
€24m
VAL (15)
€20m
SG (12)
€20m
LP (17)
€19m
CAS (20)
€16m
GC (12)
€15m
FA (13)
€12m
LEG (12)
€10m
CAD (14)
€10m
MIR (13)
€9m
ACF (15)
€9m
BUR (11)
€8m
HUE (12)
€8m
CL (12)
€8m
EIB (12)
€7m
ZAR (13)
€6m
COR (9)
€6m
ALB (7)
€4m
Leganes's attack is €1m more valuable than Mirandes's (€10m vs €9m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALM (6)
€22m
RS (6)
€17m
LP (3)
€9m
ZAR (8)
€7m
MIR (6)
€7m
BUR (9)
€7m
VAL (6)
€6m
GC (7)
€6m
ALB (9)
€5m
COR (6)
€5m
MAL (8)
€4m
DLC (6)
€4m
SG (5)
€4m
CAD (6)
€4m
FA (5)
€4m
HUE (8)
€4m
LEG (4)
€4m
EIB (6)
€3m
ACF (5)
€2m
CAS (4)
€2m
CL (6)
€2m
Leganes's midfield is €3m less valuable than Mirandes's (€4m vs €7m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LP (16)
€25m
RS (17)
€24m
DLC (17)
€11m
GC (12)
€11m
SG (12)
€10m
FA (12)
€10m
ALM (16)
€9m
VAL (14)
€9m
CL (15)
€7m
MIR (13)
€7m
MAL (13)
€7m
BUR (13)
€7m
COR (14)
€7m
CAD (12)
€6m
CAS (16)
€6m
LEG (12)
€6m
EIB (13)
€6m
ALB (12)
€6m
HUE (13)
€5m
ZAR (15)
€4m
ACF (10)
€3m
Leganes's defence is €1m less valuable than Mirandes's (€6m vs €7m).
Spain: Segunda División 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: Segunda División stats & trends →
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Racing Santander
Malaga
Almeria
Deportivo La Coruna
Las Palmas
Castellón
Burgos
Eibar
Sporting Gijon
Cordoba
AD Ceuta FC
Albacete
FC Andorra
Granada CF
Real Sociedad II
Valladolid
Cadiz
Huesca
Cultural Leonesa
Zaragoza