Leiknir R. and Fylkir are set to face off in the Iceland: 1. Deild, with Fylkir's recent resurgence a key storyline. The visitors come off a 0-3 defeat to Leiknir R. last time out, while the home side is riding a wave of momentum, having just beaten Fylkir 3-0.
The model predicts a 50% chance of an away win, with a 27% chance of a home win and a 23% chance of a draw. The expected total goals stands at 3.6, indicating a high-scoring match. The most likely score is 1-1, occurring 9.6% of the time, with a total of 3 goals expected.
At home, Leiknir R. has scored an average of 1.5 goals and conceded 1.67, while Fylkir has scored 2 goals and conceded 1.46 when away against similar opponents. The model's selection is Over 1.5, which has a 88% chance of occurring and a 6% edge. Other model selections include Home win (27%), Draw (23%), and Away win (50%). The probabilities for these selections are 27%, 23%, and 50% respectively.
Results analysis
In a stunning upset, Leiknir R. secured a 3-0 home win, extending their run of recent form. The actual result defied the pre-match favourite, Fylkir, who had a 50% chance of winning, but ultimately failed to deliver. The model's selection, Fylkir to win away, was wrong. Meanwhile, the model's other selection, Over 1.5 goals, hit, with a probability of 88%. The most likely total goals was 3, but the actual score was 3-0, which was not among the top three most likely scores.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Leiknir R. win✓ Hit
27.5%
Avg Implied 18.9% · @ 4.79
Edge
+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
5.25
1xBet
5.06
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Dafabet
4.90
Draw✗ Miss
23.0%
Avg Implied 21.8% · @ 4.15
Edge
+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.60
BetVictor
4.50
Dafabet
4.40
1xBet
4.30
Marathonbet
4.30
Fylkir win✗ Miss
49.5%
Avg Implied 59.2% · @ 1.53
Edge
-9.7%
Best 5 market prices
SBO
1.58
Betano
1.57
Unibet
1.56
Bet365
1.55
Dafabet
1.54
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Leiknir R.
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.93
1.20
1.80
1.13
2.07
vs Stronger (16)
1.25
2.50
1.12
2.50
1.38
2.50
vs Similar (14)
1.07
1.29
1.29
1.00
0.86
1.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Fylkir) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fylkir
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
3.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.30
1.27
2.50
1.28
2.00
1.25
vs Stronger (2)
3.00
1.50
3.00
1.50
-
-
vs Similar (28)
2.25
1.25
2.44
1.25
2.00
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Leiknir R.) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.0%
@ 1.12+5.5%
Under 1.5
12.0%
@ 5.28-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.13
888Sport
1.13
Marathonbet
1.09
Under
888Sport
5.75
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.35
1xBet
5.35
Bet365
5.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
69.2%
@ 1.42+4.6%
Under 2.5
30.8%
@ 2.60-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.45
10Bet
1.45
Betfair
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.44
Under
Pinnacle
2.82
BetVictor
2.75
888Sport
2.70
Bet365
2.62
Marathonbet
2.62
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
47.9%
@ 2.08+3.4%
Under 3.5
52.1%
@ 1.67-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.25
10Bet
2.15
Bet365
2.10
Unibet
2.08
Superbet
2.07
Under
Pinnacle
1.75
Marathonbet
1.70
1xBet
1.70
888Sport
1.70
BetVictor
1.68
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
68.9%
@ 1.51+8.0%
No
31.1%
@ 2.35-8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.57
Superbet
1.53
Betfair
1.53
Unibet
1.52
William Hil
1.50
No
BetVictor
2.45
1xBet
2.41
William Hil
2.40
888Sport
2.40
Betfair
2.38
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.6%@ 7.87+4.2%
1-2
9.0%@ 7.26+3.1%
2-2
6.8%@ 11.50+3.1%
2-1
6.6%@ 13.95+3.6%
1-3
6.2%@ 9.69+1.8%
0-2
6.0%@ 8.54+1.0%
0-1
4.9%@ 8.95+0.2%
2-3
4.7%@ 15.04+1.8%
Leiknir R. goals ↓
Fylkir goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.7%
4.9%
6.0%
4.1%
2.1%
1
3.4%
9.6%
9.0%
6.2%
3.2%
2
3.2%
6.6%
6.8%
4.7%
2.4%
3
1.6%
3.3%
3.4%
2.4%
1.2%
4
0.6%
1.3%
1.3%
0.9%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Leiknir R. goals (down), columns = Fylkir goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Afturelding
2.22
Throttur Reykjavik
2.00
Njardvik
2.00
Fylkir
1.78
Völsungur
1.67
IR Reykjavik
1.62
HK Kopavogur
1.62
Grindavik
1.40
Leiknir R.
1.12
Grotta
0.89
Vestri
0.75
Ægir
0.00
Leiknir R. is 0.65 points worse than Fylkir in terms of average points per game (1.12 vs 1.78).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Afturelding
3.33
HK Kopavogur
3.12
Fylkir
2.78
Throttur Reykjavik
2.75
Njardvik
2.44
Leiknir R.
1.88
IR Reykjavik
1.62
Grotta
1.56
Völsungur
1.56
Grindavik
1.50
Vestri
1.00
Ægir
0.86
Leiknir R. is 0.90 goals worse than Fylkir in terms of goals scored per game (1.88 vs 2.78).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Throttur Reykjavik
1.38
Afturelding
1.44
IR Reykjavik
1.62
Leiknir R.
1.75
Grotta
1.78
Fylkir
1.89
Njardvik
1.89
Völsungur
1.89
HK Kopavogur
2.00
Grindavik
2.20
Vestri
2.62
Ægir
4.57
Leiknir R. is 0.14 goals better than Fylkir in terms of goals conceded per game (1.75 vs 1.89).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Leiknir R.
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.80
0.20
0.73
0.53
0.87
vs Stronger (16)
0.50
1.12
0.38
1.12
0.62
1.12
vs Similar (14)
0.21
0.43
0.00
0.29
0.43
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Fylkir) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fylkir
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.53
1.33
0.50
1.08
0.58
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
0.50
2.00
0.50
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.18
0.54
1.25
0.50
1.08
0.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Leiknir R.) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Leiknir R. over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leiknir R. over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leiknir R. over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Leiknir R.
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.13
1.00
1.07
0.60
1.20
vs Stronger (16)
0.75
1.38
0.75
1.38
0.75
1.38
vs Similar (14)
0.86
0.86
1.29
0.71
0.43
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Fylkir) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fylkir
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.73
1.17
0.78
0.92
0.67
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.07
0.71
1.19
0.75
0.92
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Leiknir R.) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Leiknir R. over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leiknir R. over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leiknir R. over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fylkir over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
88.0%
1.12
Betfair
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.13
888Sport
1.13
Marathonbet
1.09
+5.5%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VES (19)
€1m
AFT (17)
€1m
TR (19)
€1m
NJA (21)
€1m
FYL (17)
€1m
HK (19)
€1m
LR (18)
€1m
GRO (17)
€1m
IR (17)
€1m
VÖL (19)
€1m
ÆGI (14)
€0m
Leiknir R. and Fylkir have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AFT (5)
€1m
VES (7)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
FYL (7)
€0m
TR (5)
€0m
NJA (7)
€0m
GRO (5)
€0m
IR (6)
€0m
ÆGI (3)
€0m
LR (4)
€0m
VÖL (4)
€0m
Leiknir R. and Fylkir have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VES (6)
€0m
TR (6)
€0m
AFT (5)
€0m
NJA (5)
€0m
FYL (4)
€0m
VÖL (6)
€0m
ÆGI (5)
€0m
LR (5)
€0m
IR (4)
€0m
GRO (3)
€0m
HK (3)
€0m
Leiknir R. and Fylkir have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NJA (9)
€0m
LR (9)
€0m
AFT (7)
€0m
FYL (6)
€0m
TR (8)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
GRO (9)
€0m
IR (7)
€0m
VÖL (9)
€0m
VES (6)
€0m
ÆGI (6)
€0m
Leiknir R. and Fylkir have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Iceland: 1. Deild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: 1. Deild stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Afturelding
Njardvik
Throttur Reykjavik
Völsungur
Grindavik
HK Kopavogur
IR Reykjavik
Grotta
Vestri
Ægir