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Leiknir R. vs Ægir Result & Analysis

Date: 12/07/2023
Time: 19:15
Final 3-2
Leiknir R.
Leiknir R.
Vs
49%
22%
28%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Ægir
Ægir
Iceland: 1. Deild
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Leiknir R. win✓ Hit
49.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ægir win✗ Miss
28.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Leiknir R.Leiknir R.

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-531W23L01L23L15L22D22D01L30W14LA·THR05/05H·SEL12/05A·THO20/05H·IA 26/05A·GRO02/06H·GRI10/06H·AFT23/06A·VES28/06H·NJA02/07A·FJO06/07
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.372.571.532.331.202.80
vs Stronger (25)1.442.641.462.381.422.92
vs Similar (5)1.002.202.002.000.332.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Ægir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ÆgirÆgir

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L22D13L13L13L01L12L13L21W14LH·FJO05/05A·NJA11/05A·THR21/05H·SEL26/05A·THO02/06H·IA 09/06A·GRO15/06H·GRI22/06A·VES02/07H·AFT07/07
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.002.300.602.401.402.20
vs Stronger (10)1.002.300.602.401.402.20
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %0% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Leiknir R.) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%10%15%20%3%07%117%220%319%415%518%6+
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
90.1%
Under 1.5
9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
73.2%
Under 2.5
26.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
52.7%
Under 3.5
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
72.1%
No
27.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
8.7%
2-1
8.6%
2-2
7.0%
1-2
6.5%
3-1
6.2%
2-0
5.3%
3-2 ✓
5.1%
1-0
4.0%
Leiknir R. goals ↓
Ægir goals →
01234
03.0%2.8%3.0%1.6%0.7%
14.0%8.7%6.5%3.5%1.4%
25.3%8.6%7.0%3.8%1.6%
33.8%6.2%5.1%2.8%1.1%
42.1%3.4%2.8%1.5%0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Leiknir R. goals (down), columns = Ægir goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
IA Akranes
2.23
Afturelding
2.00
Fjolnir
1.79
Vestri
1.76
Leiknir R.
1.46
Grindavik
1.27
Thor Akureyri
1.23
Grotta
1.18
Throttur Reykjavik
1.18
Njardvik
1.05
Selfoss
1.05
Ægir
0.41
Leiknir R. is 1.05 points better than Ægir in terms of average points per game (1.46 vs 0.41).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Afturelding
2.60
IA Akranes
2.45
Fjolnir
2.33
Throttur Reykjavik
2.05
Leiknir R.
2.00
Selfoss
1.68
Njardvik
1.64
Vestri
1.56
Grotta
1.55
Thor Akureyri
1.23
Grindavik
1.23
Ægir
1.05
Leiknir R. is 0.95 goals better than Ægir in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.05).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Vestri
1.08
Afturelding
1.36
IA Akranes
1.41
Fjolnir
1.42
Grotta
1.68
Grindavik
1.73
Leiknir R.
1.75
Thor Akureyri
1.77
Throttur Reykjavik
2.09
Njardvik
2.14
Selfoss
2.23
Ægir
3.05
Leiknir R. is 1.30 goals better than Ægir in terms of goals conceded per game (1.75 vs 3.05).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Leiknir R.Leiknir R.

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W11D01L11D13L01L10W00D00D01LA·THR05/05H·SEL12/05A·THO20/05H·IA 26/05A·GRO02/06H·GRI10/06H·AFT23/06A·VES28/06H·NJA02/07A·FJO06/07
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.531.130.471.000.601.27
vs Stronger (25)0.601.160.541.000.671.33
vs Similar (5)0.201.000.001.000.331.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Ægir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ÆgirÆgir

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D21W11D11D01L00D00D12L10W00DH·FJO05/05A·NJA11/05A·THR21/05H·SEL26/05A·THO02/06H·IA 09/06A·GRO15/06H·GRI22/06A·VES02/07H·AFT07/07
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.600.400.600.800.60
vs Stronger (10)0.600.600.400.600.800.60
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Leiknir R.) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Leiknir R. over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leiknir R. over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leiknir R. over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ægir over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ægir over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ægir over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Leiknir R.Leiknir R.

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W12L00D12L02L21W12L01L30W13LA·THR05/05H·SEL12/05A·THO20/05H·IA 26/05A·GRO02/06H·GRI10/06H·AFT23/06A·VES28/06H·NJA02/07A·FJO06/07
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.831.431.071.330.601.53
vs Stronger (25)0.841.480.921.380.751.58
vs Similar (5)0.801.202.001.000.001.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Ægir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ÆgirÆgir

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L01L02L02L12L01L12L01L11D14LH·FJO05/05A·NJA11/05A·THR21/05H·SEL26/05A·THO02/06H·IA 09/06A·GRO15/06H·GRI22/06A·VES02/07H·AFT07/07
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.401.700.201.800.601.60
vs Stronger (10)0.401.700.201.800.601.60
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %0% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Leiknir R.) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Leiknir R. over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leiknir R. over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leiknir R. over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ægir over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ægir over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ægir over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.590.1%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.573.2%-------✓ Hit
BTTS Yes72.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IA (19)
€2m
TA (21)
€2m
VES (19)
€1m
AFT (17)
€1m
TR (19)
€1m
NJA (21)
€1m
LR (18)
€1m
GRO (17)
€1m
ÆGI (14)
€0m
Leiknir R. and Ægir have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TA (7)
€1m
AFT (5)
€1m
IA (6)
€1m
VES (7)
€0m
TR (5)
€0m
NJA (7)
€0m
GRO (5)
€0m
ÆGI (3)
€0m
LR (4)
€0m
Leiknir R. and Ægir have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VES (6)
€0m
TR (6)
€0m
TA (4)
€0m
IA (3)
€0m
AFT (5)
€0m
NJA (5)
€0m
ÆGI (5)
€0m
LR (5)
€0m
GRO (3)
€0m
Leiknir R. and Ægir have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IA (10)
€1m
TA (10)
€1m
NJA (9)
€0m
LR (9)
€0m
AFT (7)
€0m
TR (8)
€0m
GRO (9)
€0m
VES (6)
€0m
ÆGI (6)
€0m
Leiknir R. and Ægir have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
LR wins
0
Draws
0
ÆGI wins

Head-to-head

Leiknir R. vs Ægir · H/A from LR
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Leiknir R.Leiknir R.

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/07/23AFjolnir Vs LR4-1
02/07/23HLR Vs Njardvik3-0
28/06/23AVestri Vs LR1-0
23/06/23HLR Vs Afturelding2-2
10/06/23HLR Vs Grindavik2-2
02/06/23AGrotta Vs LR5-1
26/05/23HLR Vs IA Akranes2-3
20/05/23AThor Akureyri Vs LR1-0
12/05/23HLR Vs Selfoss2-3
05/05/23AThrottur Reykjavik Vs LR1-3

ÆgirÆgir

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/07/23HÆGI Vs Afturelding1-4
02/07/23AVestri Vs ÆGI1-2
22/06/23HÆGI Vs Grindavik1-3
15/06/23AGrotta Vs ÆGI2-1
09/06/23HÆGI Vs IA Akranes0-1
02/06/23AThor Akureyri Vs ÆGI3-1
26/05/23HÆGI Vs Selfoss1-3
21/05/23AThrottur Reykjavik Vs ÆGI3-1
11/05/23ANjardvik Vs ÆGI2-2
05/05/23HÆGI Vs Fjolnir0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Leiknir R.
Leiknir R.
Iceland: 1. Deild
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLWL0.78
HomeLLDDW0.94
AwayWLLLL0.63
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %19%22%16%
AVG goals3.573.563.58
Over 1.5 %78%78%79%
Over 2.5 %73%78%68%
Over 3.5 %49%50%47%
Scored1.191.331.05
Conceded2.382.222.53
BTTS59%61%58%
Clean Sheet16%28%5%
Corners---
Cards---
Ægir
Ægir
Iceland: 1. Deild
Recent: 1 Wins / 1 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLWL0.40
HomeLLLLL0.00
AwayDLLLW0.80
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %10%0%20%
AVG goals3.303.003.60
Over 1.5 %80%60%100%
Over 2.5 %80%60%100%
Over 3.5 %60%60%60%
Scored1.000.601.40
Conceded2.302.402.20
BTTS80%60%100%
Clean Sheet0%0%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1AftureldingAfturelding2550
60%
2.0
6534+31
4.0
88%
76%
52%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1002.61.4
-
2IA AkranesIA Akranes2249
68%
2.2
5431+23
3.9
86%
64%
55%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.51.4
-
3VestriVestri2544
48%
1.8
3927+12
2.6
84%
56%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.61.1
-
4FjolnirFjolnir2443
50%
1.8
5634+22
3.8
79%
67%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.4
-
5Leiknir R.Leiknir R.2435
46%
1.5
4842+6
3.8
83%
79%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.01.8
-
6GrindavikGrindavik2228
36%
1.3
2738-11
3.0
82%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
-
7Thor AkureyriThor Akureyri2227
36%
1.2
2739-12
3.0
73%
68%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.21.8
-
8Throttur ReykjavikThrottur Reykjavik2226
32%
1.2
4546-1
4.1
95%
91%
55%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.02.1
-
9GrottaGrotta2226
27%
1.2
3437-3
3.2
82%
68%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.7
-
10NjardvikNjardvik2223
27%
1.0
3647-11
3.8
91%
68%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.62.1
-
11SelfossSelfoss2223
32%
1.0
3749-12
3.9
86%
77%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.2
-
12ÆgirÆgir229
9%
0.4
2367-44
4.1
86%
86%
77%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.0
-
Iceland: 1. Deild 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: 1. Deild stats & trends →

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