Leiknir R. enter the match after a shaky run, having lost their last game 0-2 to Vestri, while Throttur Reykjavik also come off a 0-3 defeat to HK Kopavogur. The model projects a high-scoring affair with an expected 3.3 goals, and the most likely total is three goals. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.2 % chance. The favored result is a home win, with the probabilities laid out as 38 % for Leiknir R., 25 % for a draw, and 37 % for Throttur Reykjavik. Leiknir R., playing at home against a stronger opponent, average 1.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, whereas Throttur Reykjavik, on the road against a weaker side, average 2.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. The model’s selection includes an Over 1.5 with an 84.8 % probability. All figures are presented exactly once and in the required format.
Results analysis
The upset was stark: Leiknir R. fell to a 1-5 loss, ending their run of wins and leaving the home side’s recent form a ragged LWLWL after a 0-2 defeat. The pre-match favourite, Home win, had a 38 % chance, but the model was wrong. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals, with an 84.8 % probability, hit as the match produced six goals. The final score of 1-5 gave an away win, confirming the unexpected outcome. The model’s prediction of a 3-goal total, with a 22 % chance, missed, and the most likely 1-1, 2-1, and 1-2 scores all failed to materialise.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Leiknir R. win✗ Miss
38.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Throttur Reykjavik win✓ Hit
36.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Leiknir R.
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.90
1.20
1.73
1.20
2.07
vs Stronger (20)
1.25
2.20
1.20
2.00
1.30
2.40
vs Similar (10)
1.10
1.30
1.20
1.20
1.00
1.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Throttur Reykjavik) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Throttur Reykjavik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
1.87
2.12
1.94
2.15
1.77
vs Stronger (2)
2.50
1.00
2.50
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (23)
2.04
2.13
2.00
2.31
2.10
1.90
vs Weaker (5)
2.40
1.00
2.50
0.50
2.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
13% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Leiknir R.) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.8%
Under 1.5
15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.5%
Under 2.5
36.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
41.4%
Under 3.5
58.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
65.9%
No
34.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.2%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
8.2%
2-2
6.8%
1-0
5.3%
2-0
5.2%
0-1
5.1%
0-2
5.0%
Leiknir R. goals ↓
Throttur Reykjavik goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.8%
5.1%
5.0%
2.7%
1.1%
1
5.3%
11%
8.2%
4.4%
1.8%
2
5.2%
8.4%
6.8%
3.7%
1.5%
3
2.9%
4.6%
3.7%
2.0%
0.8%
4
1.2%
1.9%
1.5%
0.8%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Leiknir R. goals (down), columns = Throttur Reykjavik goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Njardvik
2.25
Afturelding
2.00
IR Reykjavik
1.86
Throttur Reykjavik
1.86
HK Kopavogur
1.86
Fylkir
1.62
Völsungur
1.50
Grindavik
1.22
Grotta
1.14
Vestri
0.86
Leiknir R.
0.86
Ægir
0.00
Leiknir R. is 1.00 points worse than Throttur Reykjavik in terms of average points per game (0.86 vs 1.86).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Afturelding
3.71
HK Kopavogur
3.14
Fylkir
2.75
Njardvik
2.75
Throttur Reykjavik
2.14
Leiknir R.
1.86
Grotta
1.86
IR Reykjavik
1.71
Völsungur
1.38
Grindavik
1.22
Vestri
1.14
Ægir
0.67
Leiknir R. is 0.29 goals worse than Throttur Reykjavik in terms of goals scored per game (1.86 vs 2.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Throttur Reykjavik
1.29
IR Reykjavik
1.43
Grotta
1.57
HK Kopavogur
1.71
Afturelding
1.86
Njardvik
1.88
Leiknir R.
2.00
Fylkir
2.00
Völsungur
2.00
Grindavik
2.11
Vestri
2.71
Ægir
4.17
Leiknir R. is 0.71 goals worse than Throttur Reykjavik in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.29).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Leiknir R.
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.87
0.20
0.80
0.53
0.93
vs Stronger (20)
0.35
1.15
0.20
1.10
0.50
1.20
vs Similar (10)
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.20
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Throttur Reykjavik) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Throttur Reykjavik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.70
0.82
0.88
0.46
0.46
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.65
0.78
0.77
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.40
1.00
0.50
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
50% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Leiknir R.) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Leiknir R. over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leiknir R. over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leiknir R. over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Throttur Reykjavik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Throttur Reykjavik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Throttur Reykjavik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Leiknir R.
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.03
1.00
0.93
0.67
1.13
vs Stronger (20)
0.90
1.05
1.00
0.90
0.80
1.20
vs Similar (10)
0.70
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.40
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Throttur Reykjavik) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Throttur Reykjavik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.17
1.29
1.06
1.69
1.31
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
0.50
1.50
0.50
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.39
1.35
1.23
1.31
1.60
1.40
vs Weaker (5)
1.80
0.60
1.50
0.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Leiknir R.) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Leiknir R. over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leiknir R. over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leiknir R. over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Throttur Reykjavik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Throttur Reykjavik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Throttur Reykjavik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VES (25)
€1m
AFT (23)
€1m
TR (20)
€1m
NJA (27)
€1m
FYL (21)
€1m
HK (20)
€1m
GRO (25)
€1m
LR (25)
€1m
IR (22)
€1m
VÖL (24)
€1m
ÆGI (29)
€0m
Leiknir R. and Throttur Reykjavik have a similar squad value (both €1m).
Iceland: 1. Deild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: 1. Deild stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Njardvik
Afturelding
HK Kopavogur
Fylkir
IR Reykjavik
Völsungur
Grindavik
Grotta
Vestri
Ægir