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Leiknir R. vs Vestri Result & Analysis

Date: 20/08/2023
Time: 14:00
Final 1-2
Leiknir R.
Leiknir R.
Vs
52%
24%
24%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Vestri
Vestri
Iceland: 1. Deild
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Leiknir R. win✗ Miss
51.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vestri win✓ Hit
24.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Leiknir R.Leiknir R.

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L30W14L32W42W32W10W51W21W01LA·VES28/06H·NJA02/07A·FJO06/07H·ÆGI12/07A·SEL16/07H·THR20/07H·THO29/07A·IA 02/08H·GRO11/08A·GRI16/08
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.672.371.931.931.402.80
vs Stronger (24)1.712.541.752.171.672.92
vs Similar (5)1.201.602.500.500.332.33
vs Weaker (1)3.002.003.002.00--
Clean sheet %13% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Vestri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VestriVestri

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W12L21W11D10W30W11D21W02L22DH·LEI28/06H·ÆGI02/07A·THR08/07A·IA 16/07H·THO22/07H·GRO29/07A·GRI02/08H·SEL08/08A·NJA12/08H·AFT16/08
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.471.941.311.001.64
vs Stronger (3)1.672.004.001.000.502.50
vs Similar (25)1.401.441.691.381.081.50
vs Weaker (2)2.501.002.501.00--
Clean sheet %20% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Leiknir R.) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.7%
Under 1.5
16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.8%
Under 2.5
38.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.5%
Under 3.5
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
62.3%
No
37.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.0%
2-1
9.6%
2-0
7.6%
1-0
6.9%
1-2 ✓
6.4%
3-1
6.2%
2-2
6.1%
0-0
5.1%
Leiknir R. goals ↓
Vestri goals →
01234
05.1%4.2%3.3%1.4%0.4%
16.9%11%6.4%2.7%0.9%
27.6%9.6%6.1%2.6%0.8%
34.9%6.2%3.9%1.7%0.5%
42.3%3.0%1.9%0.8%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Leiknir R. goals (down), columns = Vestri goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
IA Akranes
2.23
Afturelding
2.00
Fjolnir
1.79
Vestri
1.76
Leiknir R.
1.46
Grindavik
1.27
Thor Akureyri
1.23
Grotta
1.18
Throttur Reykjavik
1.18
Njardvik
1.05
Selfoss
1.05
Ægir
0.41
Leiknir R. is 0.30 points worse than Vestri in terms of average points per game (1.46 vs 1.76).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Afturelding
2.60
IA Akranes
2.45
Fjolnir
2.33
Throttur Reykjavik
2.05
Leiknir R.
2.00
Selfoss
1.68
Njardvik
1.64
Vestri
1.56
Grotta
1.55
Thor Akureyri
1.23
Grindavik
1.23
Ægir
1.05
Leiknir R. is 0.44 goals better than Vestri in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.56).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Vestri
1.08
Afturelding
1.36
IA Akranes
1.41
Fjolnir
1.42
Grotta
1.68
Grindavik
1.73
Leiknir R.
1.75
Thor Akureyri
1.77
Throttur Reykjavik
2.09
Njardvik
2.14
Selfoss
2.23
Ægir
3.05
Leiknir R. is 0.67 goals worse than Vestri in terms of goals conceded per game (1.75 vs 1.08).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Leiknir R.Leiknir R.

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D01L12L11D21W00D21W00D01LA·VES28/06H·NJA02/07A·FJO06/07H·ÆGI12/07A·SEL16/07H·THR20/07H·THO29/07A·IA 02/08H·GRO11/08A·GRI16/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.571.070.670.870.471.27
vs Stronger (24)0.621.120.750.920.501.33
vs Similar (5)0.200.600.000.000.331.00
vs Weaker (1)1.002.001.002.00--
Clean sheet %30% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Vestri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VestriVestri

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L11D00D00D10W10W21W01L20WH·LEI28/06H·ÆGI02/07A·THR08/07A·IA 16/07H·THO22/07H·GRO29/07A·GRI02/08H·SEL08/08A·NJA12/08H·AFT16/08
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.500.940.440.500.57
vs Stronger (3)0.670.672.000.000.001.00
vs Similar (25)0.720.480.850.460.580.50
vs Weaker (2)1.000.501.000.50--
Clean sheet %60% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Leiknir R.) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Leiknir R. over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leiknir R. over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leiknir R. over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vestri over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vestri over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vestri over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Leiknir R.Leiknir R.

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L30W13L20W31W11D10W30W21W00DA·VES28/06H·NJA02/07A·FJO06/07H·ÆGI12/07A·SEL16/07H·THR20/07H·THO29/07A·IA 02/08H·GRO11/08A·GRI16/08
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.301.271.070.931.53
vs Stronger (24)1.081.421.001.251.171.58
vs Similar (5)1.001.002.500.500.001.33
vs Weaker (1)2.000.002.000.00--
Clean sheet %33% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Vestri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

VestriVestri

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W11D10W11D10W20W01L00D01L02LH·LEI28/06H·ÆGI02/07A·THR08/07A·IA 16/07H·THO22/07H·GRO29/07A·GRI02/08H·SEL08/08A·NJA12/08H·AFT16/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.971.000.880.501.07
vs Stronger (3)1.001.332.001.000.501.50
vs Similar (25)0.680.960.850.920.501.00
vs Weaker (2)1.500.501.500.50--
Clean sheet %27% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Leiknir R.) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Leiknir R. over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leiknir R. over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leiknir R. over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vestri over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vestri over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vestri over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.583.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IA (19)
€2m
TA (21)
€2m
VES (19)
€1m
AFT (17)
€1m
TR (19)
€1m
NJA (21)
€1m
LR (18)
€1m
GRO (17)
€1m
ÆGI (14)
€0m
Leiknir R. and Vestri have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TA (7)
€1m
AFT (5)
€1m
IA (6)
€1m
VES (7)
€0m
TR (5)
€0m
NJA (7)
€0m
GRO (5)
€0m
ÆGI (3)
€0m
LR (4)
€0m
Leiknir R. and Vestri have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VES (6)
€0m
TR (6)
€0m
TA (4)
€0m
IA (3)
€0m
AFT (5)
€0m
NJA (5)
€0m
ÆGI (5)
€0m
LR (5)
€0m
GRO (3)
€0m
Leiknir R. and Vestri have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IA (10)
€1m
TA (10)
€1m
NJA (9)
€0m
LR (9)
€0m
AFT (7)
€0m
TR (8)
€0m
GRO (9)
€0m
VES (6)
€0m
ÆGI (6)
€0m
Leiknir R. and Vestri have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
LR wins
0
Draws
1
VES wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Leiknir R. vs Vestri · H/A from LR
DateH/AGameScore
28/06/23AVestri Vs LR1-0

Leiknir R.Leiknir R.

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/08/23AGrindavik Vs LR1-0
11/08/23HLR Vs Grotta2-1
02/08/23AIA Akranes Vs LR1-5
29/07/23HLR Vs Thor Akureyri1-0
20/07/23HLR Vs Throttur Reykjavik3-2
16/07/23ASelfoss Vs LR2-4
12/07/23HLR Vs Ægir3-2
06/07/23AFjolnir Vs LR4-1
02/07/23HLR Vs Njardvik3-0
28/06/23AVestri Vs LR1-0

VestriVestri

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/08/23HVES Vs Afturelding2-2
12/08/23ANjardvik Vs VES2-0
08/08/23HVES Vs Selfoss2-1
02/08/23AGrindavik Vs VES1-1
29/07/23HVES Vs Grotta3-0
22/07/23HVES Vs Thor Akureyri1-0
16/07/23AIA Akranes Vs VES1-1
08/07/23AThrottur Reykjavik Vs VES1-2
02/07/23HVES Vs Ægir1-2
28/06/23HVES Vs Leiknir R.1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Leiknir R.
Leiknir R.
Iceland: 1. Deild
Recent: 7 Wins / 0 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWL1.07
HomeWWWWW1.32
AwayLLWWL0.82
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%36%23%
AVG goals3.613.553.68
Over 1.5 %77%77%77%
Over 2.5 %73%77%68%
Over 3.5 %50%50%50%
Scored1.411.501.32
Conceded2.202.052.36
BTTS61%64%59%
Clean Sheet16%27%5%
Corners---
Cards---
Vestri
Vestri
Iceland: 1. Deild
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWLD1.33
HomeLWWWD1.65
AwayDWDDL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %33%45%21%
AVG goals3.213.552.84
Over 1.5 %87%85%89%
Over 2.5 %64%75%53%
Over 3.5 %44%55%32%
Scored1.512.001.00
Conceded1.691.551.84
BTTS64%65%63%
Clean Sheet18%25%11%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1AftureldingAfturelding2550
60%
2.0
6534+31
4.0
88%
76%
52%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1002.61.4
-
2IA AkranesIA Akranes2249
68%
2.2
5431+23
3.9
86%
64%
55%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.51.4
-
3VestriVestri2544
48%
1.8
3927+12
2.6
84%
56%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.61.1
-
4FjolnirFjolnir2443
50%
1.8
5634+22
3.8
79%
67%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.4
-
5Leiknir R.Leiknir R.2435
46%
1.5
4842+6
3.8
83%
79%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.01.8
-
6GrindavikGrindavik2228
36%
1.3
2738-11
3.0
82%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
-
7Thor AkureyriThor Akureyri2227
36%
1.2
2739-12
3.0
73%
68%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.21.8
-
8Throttur ReykjavikThrottur Reykjavik2226
32%
1.2
4546-1
4.1
95%
91%
55%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.02.1
-
9GrottaGrotta2226
27%
1.2
3437-3
3.2
82%
68%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.7
-
10NjardvikNjardvik2223
27%
1.0
3647-11
3.8
91%
68%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.62.1
-
11SelfossSelfoss2223
32%
1.0
3749-12
3.9
86%
77%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.2
-
12ÆgirÆgir229
9%
0.4
2367-44
4.1
86%
86%
77%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.0
-
Iceland: 1. Deild 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: 1. Deild stats & trends →

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