This opponent (Vilaverdense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vilaverdense
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.83
0.93
1.80
0.67
1.87
vs Stronger (19)
0.68
2.32
0.78
2.33
0.60
2.30
vs Similar (11)
1.00
1.00
1.17
1.00
0.80
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Leixoes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
58.8%
Under 1.5
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
30.4%
Under 2.5
69.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
13.0%
Under 3.5
87.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
39.2%
No
60.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
15.9%
1-1
14.7%
1-0
14.3%
0-1
11.1%
2-0
8.4%
2-1
7.2%
1-2
5.7%
0-2
5.3%
Leixoes goals ↓
Vilaverdense goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
16%
11%
5.3%
1.5%
0.3%
1
14%
15%
5.7%
1.6%
0.3%
2
8.4%
7.2%
3.1%
0.9%
0.2%
3
3.0%
2.6%
1.1%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.8%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Leixoes goals (down), columns = Vilaverdense goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Santa Clara
2.15
Nacional
2.09
AVS
1.88
Maritimo
1.88
Pacos Ferreira
1.53
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.50
Tondela
1.44
Torreense
1.41
Benfica B
1.32
Mafra
1.29
FC Porto B
1.29
Academico Viseu
1.26
União de Leiria
1.24
Penafiel
1.15
Leixoes
1.09
Oliveirense
1.00
Feirense
0.94
Vilaverdense
0.82
CF Os Belenenses
0.76
Leixoes is 0.26 points better than Vilaverdense in terms of average points per game (1.09 vs 0.82).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Nacional
1.94
Maritimo
1.53
FC Porto B
1.50
AVS
1.47
Santa Clara
1.41
Benfica B
1.41
Tondela
1.35
União de Leiria
1.29
Pacos Ferreira
1.24
Mafra
1.18
Torreense
1.18
Oliveirense
1.09
Academico Viseu
1.06
Feirense
0.94
Penafiel
0.91
Vilaverdense
0.88
Leixoes
0.85
CF Os Belenenses
0.82
Lusitânia Lourosa
0.50
Leixoes is 0.03 goals worse than Vilaverdense in terms of goals scored per game (0.85 vs 0.88).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Santa Clara
0.56
Maritimo
0.85
AVS
1.00
Nacional
1.03
Pacos Ferreira
1.03
Torreense
1.09
Leixoes
1.12
Academico Viseu
1.12
Penafiel
1.15
União de Leiria
1.18
Mafra
1.24
Tondela
1.26
Feirense
1.39
Benfica B
1.41
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.50
FC Porto B
1.50
Oliveirense
1.59
CF Os Belenenses
1.74
Vilaverdense
1.74
Leixoes is 0.62 goals better than Vilaverdense in terms of goals conceded per game (1.12 vs 1.74).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Porto B
54%
Pacos Ferreira
53%
Mafra
53%
AVS
53%
Leixoes
52%
Feirense
52%
Benfica B
52%
Oliveirense
52%
Maritimo
51%
União de Leiria
50%
Santa Clara
50%
Nacional
50%
Torreense
49%
Tondela
47%
Academico Viseu
47%
Vilaverdense
47%
CF Os Belenenses
45%
Penafiel
42%
Leixoes is 5.6 percentage points better than Vilaverdense in terms of average possession (52% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Leixoes
For 4.8 · Against 4.9 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.4 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 18.5 · Against 12.6 · Total 31.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Vilaverdense
For 5.9 · Against 4.8 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.9 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.5 · Against 16.4 · Total 26.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Leixoes
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.5
10.3
5.5
5.2
5.8
29.7
30.0
29.5
vs Stronger (13)
8.7
9.0
8.4
6.2
5.5
6.7
29.6
30.0
29.3
vs Similar (37)
11.1
11.0
11.1
5.3
5.2
5.5
29.8
30.0
29.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
50%
50%
88%
85%
92%
92%
88%
96%
% under line
50%
50%
50%
12%
15%
8%
8%
12%
4%
This opponent (Vilaverdense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vilaverdense
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (32)
10.8
11.2
10.3
3.2
3.2
3.1
28.5
28.1
29.0
vs Stronger (19)
11.1
12.0
10.3
3.4
3.6
3.2
27.8
28.2
27.6
vs Similar (13)
10.2
10.2
10.3
2.9
2.9
3.0
29.6
28.0
32.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
76%
82%
70%
53%
56%
50%
90%
91%
90%
% under line
24%
18%
30%
47%
44%
50%
10%
9%
10%
This opponent (Leixoes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Nacional
12.2
AVS
11.6
Oliveirense
11.0
Feirense
11.0
Tondela
10.8
Vilaverdense
10.8
FC Porto B
10.6
Academico Viseu
10.5
Leixoes
10.4
União de Leiria
10.3
Benfica B
10.3
Mafra
10.3
Penafiel
10.2
Pacos Ferreira
10.0
Torreense
9.8
Maritimo
9.4
CF Os Belenenses
9.3
Santa Clara
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Santa Clara
6.3
Maritimo
6.2
Oliveirense
6.1
Pacos Ferreira
5.8
Tondela
5.7
Leixoes
5.7
Nacional
5.6
FC Porto B
5.5
Benfica B
5.5
AVS
5.4
Penafiel
5.3
Torreense
5.1
União de Leiria
5.1
Academico Viseu
5.1
Feirense
5.0
Vilaverdense
4.9
Mafra
4.8
CF Os Belenenses
4.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Pacos Ferreira
31.6
Maritimo
30.1
Oliveirense
29.8
Penafiel
29.7
Leixoes
29.7
Santa Clara
29.6
Vilaverdense
28.5
Tondela
28.5
Nacional
28.0
Torreense
27.6
AVS
27.5
Feirense
26.9
Benfica B
26.8
União de Leiria
26.1
FC Porto B
25.8
Academico Viseu
25.7
Mafra
25.6
CF Os Belenenses
25.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
58.0%
Under 9.5
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
70.6%
Under 3.5
29.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
91.9%
Under 21.5
8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Leixoes
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.47
0.13
0.40
0.53
0.53
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
0.50
0.25
0.50
0.25
0.50
vs Similar (22)
0.36
0.45
0.09
0.36
0.64
0.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Vilaverdense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vilaverdense
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.20
0.83
0.20
0.87
0.20
0.80
vs Stronger (19)
0.21
1.05
0.22
1.22
0.20
0.90
vs Similar (11)
0.18
0.45
0.17
0.33
0.20
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Leixoes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Leixoes over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leixoes over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leixoes over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vilaverdense over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vilaverdense over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vilaverdense over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Leixoes
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.63
0.47
0.60
0.47
0.67
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.25
vs Similar (22)
0.45
0.68
0.45
0.55
0.45
0.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Vilaverdense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vilaverdense
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.00
0.73
0.93
0.47
1.07
vs Stronger (19)
0.47
1.26
0.56
1.11
0.40
1.40
vs Similar (11)
0.82
0.55
1.00
0.67
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Leixoes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Leixoes over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leixoes over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leixoes over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vilaverdense over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vilaverdense over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vilaverdense over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 25.5 fouls
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Leixoes · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Bryan Róchez80%
Benjamin Kanuric50%
José Bica50%
Bryan Róchez33%
Semeu Commey33%
Paulité25%
Ricardo Valente12%
Salvador Agra10%
Rafael Santos0%
Neto0%
Paulinho Mota0%
Rafael Barbosa0%
Matheus Costa0%
Igor Stefanović0%
Simãozinho0%
Naldo0%
Miguel Ángel Morro0%
Hugues Evrard0%
Miguel Sousa0%
Werton0%
Gonçalo Tabuaço0%
Lourenco Henriques0%
Serif Nhaga0%
Cláudio Araújo0%
Miguel Rajani0%
Amadu Balde0%
Hugo Faria0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Neto50%
Paulinho Mota44%
Rafael Santos40%
Hugues Evrard33%
Miguel Sousa33%
Gonçalo Tabuaço33%
Benjamin Kanuric25%
Paulité25%
José Bica25%
Serif Nhaga25%
Hugo Faria25%
Werton22%
Salvador Agra20%
Simãozinho20%
Bryan Róchez20%
Amadu Balde17%
Cláudio Araújo10%
Ricardo Valente0%
Bryan Róchez0%
Rafael Barbosa0%
Matheus Costa0%
Igor Stefanović0%
Naldo0%
Miguel Ángel Morro0%
Lourenco Henriques0%
Semeu Commey0%
Miguel Rajani0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Benjamin Kanuric25%
Cláudio Araújo20%
Amadu Balde17%
Lourenco Henriques14%
Salvador Agra10%
Simãozinho10%
Rafael Santos0%
Neto0%
Ricardo Valente0%
Paulinho Mota0%
Bryan Róchez0%
Rafael Barbosa0%
Matheus Costa0%
Igor Stefanović0%
Naldo0%
Miguel Ángel Morro0%
Hugues Evrard0%
Miguel Sousa0%
Paulité0%
José Bica0%
Werton0%
Gonçalo Tabuaço0%
Semeu Commey0%
Serif Nhaga0%
Bryan Róchez0%
Miguel Rajani0%
Hugo Faria0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
José Bica50%
Bryan Róchez40%
Bryan Róchez33%
Semeu Commey33%
Salvador Agra20%
Cláudio Araújo10%
Rafael Santos0%
Neto0%
Ricardo Valente0%
Paulinho Mota0%
Rafael Barbosa0%
Matheus Costa0%
Igor Stefanović0%
Simãozinho0%
Naldo0%
Miguel Ángel Morro0%
Hugues Evrard0%
Benjamin Kanuric0%
Miguel Sousa0%
Paulité0%
Werton0%
Gonçalo Tabuaço0%
Lourenco Henriques0%
Serif Nhaga0%
Miguel Rajani0%
Amadu Balde0%
Hugo Faria0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Santa Clara
Nacional
Maritimo
AVS
Pacos Ferreira
Tondela
Torreense
Benfica B
FC Porto B
Mafra
Academico Viseu
União de Leiria
Penafiel
Feirense
Oliveirense
CF Os Belenenses
Lusitânia Lourosa