Lens are tipped to win as the model favours a home victory, with a 60% chance of triumph, 23% for a draw and 17% for Lorient. The expected total is 3.0 goals, but the most likely total is 2 goals at 24%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 11% probability. Lens have averaged 2.57 goals scored and 1.14 conceded at home against similar opposition, while Lorient average 1.11 for and 1.11 against on the road. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.2%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.2% with a 2% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.0% with a 5% edge), Under 6.5 (97.5% with a 3% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (94.7% with a 5% edge), Under 5.5 (93.3% with a 4% edge) and Home +2 handicap (93.0%). Both sides have recently come off defeats, each losing 1-2 to similar opponents, suggesting a cautious, low-scoring encounter.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Lens win
60.2%
Avg Implied 64.2% · @ 1.47
Edge
-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.52
Marathonbet
1.50
Dafabet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.49
Unibet
1.48
Draw
23.4%
Avg Implied 21.1% · @ 4.47
Edge
+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.78
Pinnacle
4.72
Dafabet
4.70
Marathonbet
4.70
Betfair
4.60
Lorient win
16.4%
Avg Implied 14.8% · @ 6.38
Edge
+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
7.00
10Bet
6.75
Betano
6.70
1xBet
6.65
Marathonbet
6.55
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Lens
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.33
1.17
2.47
0.93
2.20
1.40
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (18)
2.22
1.39
2.57
1.14
2.00
1.55
vs Weaker (11)
2.73
0.73
2.71
0.57
2.75
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Lorient) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lorient
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.07
1.47
1.00
1.73
1.13
vs Stronger (6)
1.50
1.00
1.50
0.00
1.50
1.50
vs Similar (22)
1.32
1.14
1.46
1.15
1.11
1.11
vs Weaker (2)
5.00
0.50
-
-
5.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Lens) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
79.7%
@ 1.19+0.8%
Under 1.5
20.3%
@ 4.43-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Under
BetVictor
4.60
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Betano
4.45
1xBet
4.35
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
55.6%
@ 1.65-2.2%
Under 2.5
44.4%
@ 2.25+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.70
Unibet
1.68
Pinnacle
1.66
Marathonbet
1.65
Betano
1.65
Under
1xBet
2.34
Pinnacle
2.30
Betano
2.30
Bet365
2.30
Marathonbet
2.27
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
33.2%
@ 2.58-3.3%
Under 3.5
66.8%
@ 1.48+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.70
Pinnacle
2.66
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Betano
2.57
Under
Betano
1.53
Pinnacle
1.51
10Bet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Betfair
1.47
Both teams to score
Yes
53.5%
@ 1.76+0.5%
No
46.5%
@ 1.98-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.81
1xBet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.76
Betano
1.75
William Hil
1.75
No
William Hil
2.05
Betfair
2.00
BetVictor
2.00
Betano
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%@ 7.97+5.5%
2-0
10.6%@ 7.16+4.3%
2-1
9.9%@ 7.54+4.0%
1-0
9.7%@ 7.29+3.6%
3-0
6.9%@ 9.98+2.4%
3-1
6.5%@ 10.29+2.1%
0-0
6.5%@ 13.54+3.2%
1-2
4.8%@ 17.15+2.1%
Lens goals ↓
Lorient goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
4.1%
2.4%
0.8%
0.2%
1
9.7%
11%
4.8%
1.5%
0.4%
2
11%
9.9%
4.7%
1.5%
0.3%
3
6.9%
6.5%
3.1%
1.0%
0.2%
4
3.4%
3.2%
1.5%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lens goals (down), columns = Lorient goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.24
Lens
2.06
Lille
1.79
Lyon
1.76
Marseille
1.74
Rennes
1.74
Monaco
1.59
Strasbourg
1.56
Toulouse
1.33
Lorient
1.32
Paris FC
1.29
Stade Brestois 29
1.15
Angers
1.06
Estac Troyes
1.04
Le Havre
1.03
Nice
1.00
Auxerre
1.00
Le Mans
0.83
Lens is 0.74 points better than Lorient in terms of average points per game (2.06 vs 1.32).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.18
Lens
1.94
Marseille
1.85
Monaco
1.76
Rennes
1.74
Strasbourg
1.71
Lyon
1.56
Lille
1.53
Toulouse
1.42
Lorient
1.41
Paris FC
1.38
Stade Brestois 29
1.26
Nice
1.14
Estac Troyes
1.11
Auxerre
1.00
Le Havre
0.94
Le Mans
0.88
Angers
0.85
Lens is 0.53 goals better than Lorient in terms of goals scored per game (1.94 vs 1.41).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Paris Saint Germain
0.85
Lens
1.03
Lille
1.09
Lyon
1.18
Le Havre
1.29
Auxerre
1.29
Marseille
1.32
Strasbourg
1.38
Toulouse
1.39
Angers
1.41
Paris FC
1.47
Rennes
1.47
Lorient
1.50
Monaco
1.59
Stade Brestois 29
1.62
Nice
1.69
Estac Troyes
1.85
Le Mans
2.32
Lens is 0.47 goals better than Lorient in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Paris Saint Germain
69%
Marseille
57%
Lille
56%
Lyon
55%
Monaco
54%
Strasbourg
54%
Rennes
54%
Lens
51%
Paris FC
50%
Le Havre
47%
Nice
47%
Lorient
45%
Auxerre
44%
Stade Brestois 29
43%
Toulouse
42%
Angers
42%
Lens is 5.8 percentage points better than Lorient in terms of average possession (51% vs 45%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Lens
For 7.5 · Against 5.1 · Total 12.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.8 · Against 11.6 · Total 22.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lorient
For 4.0 · Against 5.7 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 1.8 · Total 2.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.8 · Against 10.7 · Total 19.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lens
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.7
9.8
4.3
3.9
4.6
24.8
25.0
24.6
vs Stronger (2)
8.0
9.0
7.0
2.0
1.0
3.0
15.0
12.0
18.0
vs Similar (32)
10.9
11.6
10.3
4.4
4.1
4.8
24.1
24.1
24.1
vs Weaker (16)
9.3
9.4
9.1
4.2
4.0
4.6
27.4
27.9
26.7
% over line
52%
56%
48%
64%
52%
76%
66%
72%
60%
% under line
48%
44%
52%
36%
48%
24%
34%
28%
40%
This opponent (Lorient) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lorient
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
8.8
9.0
3.7
3.9
3.6
22.8
21.5
24.1
vs Stronger (10)
8.8
8.2
9.4
4.2
4.8
3.6
24.2
24.0
24.4
vs Similar (29)
8.8
8.6
9.1
3.9
4.1
3.6
22.5
21.7
23.4
vs Weaker (11)
9.0
10.0
8.3
2.9
2.2
3.5
22.2
18.2
25.5
% over line
41%
42%
40%
52%
48%
56%
50%
44%
56%
% under line
59%
58%
60%
48%
52%
44%
50%
56%
44%
This opponent (Lens) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Nice
10.5
Rennes
10.5
Lens
10.3
Auxerre
10.0
Lyon
9.9
Stade Brestois 29
9.7
Lille
9.6
Monaco
9.6
Paris FC
9.4
Paris Saint Germain
9.3
Le Mans
9.3
Toulouse
9.3
Angers
9.2
Marseille
9.1
Le Havre
9.0
Strasbourg
8.9
Lorient
8.9
Estac Troyes
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Auxerre
4.8
Lyon
4.6
Marseille
4.5
Lens
4.5
Le Mans
4.4
Lille
4.4
Toulouse
4.3
Monaco
4.3
Rennes
4.3
Strasbourg
4.2
Le Havre
4.0
Nice
4.0
Lorient
4.0
Estac Troyes
3.9
Paris FC
3.9
Stade Brestois 29
3.7
Angers
3.4
Paris Saint Germain
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Le Mans
27.1
Estac Troyes
27.0
Le Havre
26.8
Auxerre
25.7
Toulouse
25.4
Lyon
25.1
Stade Brestois 29
25.0
Lens
24.8
Rennes
24.0
Lille
24.0
Monaco
23.5
Strasbourg
23.5
Nice
23.4
Marseille
23.4
Lorient
22.8
Angers
22.7
Paris FC
22.3
Paris Saint Germain
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
53.1%
@ 1.73-0.5%
Under 9.5
46.9%
@ 2.01+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.75
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Under
Pinnacle
2.05
Unibet
2.04
Betano
2.02
Bet365
2.00
1xBet
1.99
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
48.4%
@ 1.97+1.0%
Under 3.5
51.6%
@ 1.77-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.02
1xBet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Betano
1.95
Unibet
1.90
Under
Betano
1.83
Pinnacle
1.80
Unibet
1.78
1xBet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
62.8%
Under 21.5
37.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Lens or Draw
81.1%
Avg Implied 84.7% · @ 1.11
Edge
-3.7%
60%
23%
16%
covers Lens + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
Betano
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Lens or Lorient
75.1%
Avg Implied 79.5% · @ 1.19
Edge
-4.3%
60%
23%
16%
covers Lens + Lorient
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Draw or Lorient
43.8%
Avg Implied 35.8% · @ 2.63
Edge
+8.0%
60%
23%
16%
covers Draw + Lorient
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.72
Marathonbet
2.71
1xBet
2.70
10Bet
2.65
Betfair
2.63
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Lens over/under 0.5
Over
84.0%
@ 1.08-2.1%
Under
16.0%
@ 6.73+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.10
Unibet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
BetVictor
1.08
Under
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
10Bet
6.50
BetVictor
6.50
1xBet
6.50
Lens over/under 1.5
Over
54.8%
@ 1.51-7.3%
Under
45.2%
@ 2.46+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.53
1xBet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.53
Unibet
1.52
BetVictor
1.50
Under
Pinnacle
2.58
Bet365
2.50
Marathonbet
2.49
1xBet
2.49
Betano
2.47
Lens over/under 2.5
Over
27.9%
@ 2.58-8.4%
Under
72.1%
@ 1.47+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.68
Unibet
2.65
1xBet
2.63
Marathonbet
2.63
Betfair
2.60
Under
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.48
1xBet
1.48
Lens over/under 3.5
Over
11.4%
@ 5.08-6.9%
Under
88.6%
@ 1.14+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.25
1xBet
5.25
Unibet
5.20
Bet365
5.00
Under
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Lorient over/under 0.5
Over
62.7%
@ 1.58+3.9%
Under
37.3%
@ 2.26-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.61
Betano
1.60
Unibet
1.58
Betfair
1.57
BetVictor
1.57
Under
Pinnacle
2.36
Betano
2.27
BetVictor
2.25
Betfair
2.25
Marathonbet
2.25
Lorient over/under 1.5
Over
25.9%
@ 3.92+2.1%
Under
74.1%
@ 1.23-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.06
1xBet
4.05
Marathonbet
4.05
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Under
Betano
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Pinnacle
1.24
1xBet
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Lorient over/under 2.5
Over
7.8%
@ 11.30-0.6%
Under
92.2%
@ 1.03+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Marathonbet
11.75
1xBet
11.70
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Lorient over/under 3.5
Over
1.8%
@ 27.25-1.8%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.01+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
41.00
Betano
13.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Lens, so a minus line means Lens give that many goals of a start and Lorient receive them. At -1, Lens must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Lens win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Lens)
Lens -2
15.4%
@ 4.04-6.8%
Draw -2
17.6%
@ 4.28-3.4%
Lorient +2
67.0%
@ 1.58+10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.20
Unibet
4.10
10Bet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.92
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.45
Betfair
4.33
Unibet
4.10
10Bet
4.00
Away
Bet365
1.62
10Bet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.58
Unibet
1.57
Betfair
1.53
Handicap -1 (Lens)
Lens -1
33.0%
@ 2.22-7.7%
Draw -1
23.2%
@ 3.62-1.8%
Lorient +1
43.8%
@ 2.63+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
2.25
Unibet
2.23
Marathonbet
2.23
10Bet
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
3.60
Marathonbet
3.55
Unibet
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Away
Marathonbet
2.71
10Bet
2.65
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Unibet
2.55
Handicap +1 (Lens)
Lens +1
81.1%
@ 1.11+0.4%
Draw +1
12.0%
@ 7.17-0.5%
Lorient -1
7.0%
@ 13.02+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.13
Bet365
1.11
Unibet
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Betfair
1.08
Draw
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.00
Unibet
7.50
10Bet
7.00
Marathonbet
4.35
Away
Bet365
17.00
10Bet
15.00
Betfair
14.00
Unibet
12.50
Marathonbet
6.60
Handicap +2 (Lens)
Lens +2
93.0%
@ 1.01-0.3%
Draw +2
5.1%
@ 19.50+0.2%
Lorient -2
1.9%
@ 53.50+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
Draw
Bet365
21.00
Betfair
18.00
Away
Betfair
56.00
Bet365
51.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lens
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.53
1.07
0.40
0.80
0.67
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.89
0.72
1.14
0.71
0.73
0.73
vs Weaker (11)
1.09
0.18
1.14
0.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Lorient) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lorient
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.40
0.73
0.47
0.73
0.33
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.17
1.00
0.00
0.25
0.25
vs Similar (22)
0.59
0.45
0.69
0.54
0.44
0.33
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
0.50
-
-
3.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Lens) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
72.9%
@ 1.29+0.5%
Under 0.5
27.1%
@ 3.38-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Under
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.50
1xBet
3.42
Marathonbet
3.42
BetVictor
3.40
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
35.5%
@ 2.40-3.5%
Under 1.5
64.5%
@ 1.53+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.48
Betano
2.47
Unibet
2.45
Marathonbet
2.44
1xBet
2.44
Under
Betano
1.55
10Bet
1.55
William Hil
1.55
Pinnacle
1.55
Marathonbet
1.55
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.1%
@ 5.54-1.7%
Under 2.5
84.9%
@ 1.12+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
5.80
BetVictor
5.75
1xBet
5.65
Marathonbet
5.65
Unibet
5.60
Under
Betano
1.14
William Hil
1.14
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.13
BetVictor
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lens over/under 0.5 HT
Over
57.0%
@ 1.54-3.7%
Under
43.0%
@ 2.37+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.57
Unibet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.53
1xBet
1.53
10Bet
1.50
Under
Pinnacle
2.49
10Bet
2.45
1xBet
2.34
Betano
2.30
Unibet
2.28
Lens over/under 1.5 HT
Over
21.0%
@ 3.63-4.4%
Under
79.0%
@ 1.24+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.72
Marathonbet
3.72
Unibet
3.70
Betano
3.55
10Bet
3.45
Under
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
Unibet
1.21
Lens over/under 2.5 HT
Over
5.3%
@ 9.35-4.5%
Under
94.7%
@ 1.02+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
10.00
1xBet
9.80
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.01
Unibet
1.01
Lorient over/under 0.5 HT
Over
37.0%
@ 2.81+4.0%
Under
63.0%
@ 1.39-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.02
Unibet
2.80
Betano
2.80
Marathonbet
2.76
1xBet
2.76
Under
10Bet
1.40
Betano
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
1xBet
1.39
Lorient over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.3%
@ 10.82-1.5%
Under
92.7%
@ 1.04+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.75
1xBet
11.70
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Lorient over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lens
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.63
1.40
0.53
1.40
0.73
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.33
0.67
1.43
0.43
1.27
0.82
vs Weaker (11)
1.64
0.55
1.57
0.57
1.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Lorient) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lorient
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.67
0.73
0.53
1.00
0.80
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
0.83
0.50
0.00
1.25
1.25
vs Similar (22)
0.73
0.68
0.77
0.62
0.67
0.78
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Lens) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.9%
@ 1.17+1.2%
Under 0.5
19.1%
@ 4.60-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
Under
1xBet
4.80
Marathonbet
4.80
Betano
4.70
10Bet
4.60
Bet365
4.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
48.6%
@ 1.86-1.9%
Under 1.5
51.4%
@ 1.89+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.91
1xBet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.90
Unibet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Under
Betano
1.98
1xBet
1.93
Marathonbet
1.93
10Bet
1.91
William Hil
1.85
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
21.4%
@ 3.65-4.2%
Under 2.5
78.6%
@ 1.26+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.90
Bet365
3.75
Unibet
3.70
Marathonbet
3.66
1xBet
3.66
Under
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
William Hil
1.25
10Bet
1.25
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lens over/under 0.5 2H
Over
64.8%
@ 1.36-3.6%
Under
35.2%
@ 2.95+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.37
Betano
1.35
Under
Betano
3.00
1xBet
2.90
Lens over/under 1.5 2H
Over
26.6%
@ 2.65-8.5%
Under
73.4%
@ 1.43+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.70
Marathonbet
2.69
10Bet
2.62
Betano
2.57
Under
Betano
1.47
10Bet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.41
1xBet
1.41
Lens over/under 2.5 2H
Over
8.3%
@ 6.15-6.8%
Under
91.7%
@ 1.09+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.70
Betano
5.60
Under
Betano
1.12
1xBet
1.07
Lorient over/under 0.5 2H
Over
44.1%
@ 2.26+2.9%
Under
55.9%
@ 1.58-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.29
Betano
2.25
1xBet
2.24
Under
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.59
Marathonbet
1.55
Lorient over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.8%
@ 7.63-0.3%
Under
88.2%
@ 1.05+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.40
1xBet
7.80
Betano
6.70
Under
Betano
1.09
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Lorient over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.0%
@ 12.50-5.4%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.01+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.8%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.0%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.4%
Under 6.5
97.5%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
+3.1%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
94.7%
1.02
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.01
Unibet
1.01
-
-
+4.5%
Under 5.5
93.3%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Unibet
1.04
BetVictor
1.03
+3.9%
Home +2 handicap
93.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
-
-
-0.3%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.7%
1.04
Betano
1.04
-
-
-
-
+1.5%
Away under 2.5 goals
92.2%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+0.6%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
91.7%
1.09
Betano
1.12
1xBet
1.07
-
-
-
+6.8%
Home under 3.5 goals
88.6%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
+6.9%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.2%
1.05
Betano
1.09
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
-
-
+0.3%
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.9%
1.12
Betano
1.14
William Hil
1.14
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.13
BetVictor
1.11
+1.7%
Under 5.5 cards
84.5%
1.27
Unibet
1.35
Betano
1.20
-
-
-
+11.0%
Under 4.5
84.4%
1.17
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Betfair
1.17
Unibet
1.15
+4.6%
Home over 0.5 goals
84.0%
1.08
Betano
1.10
Unibet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
BetVictor
1.08
-2.1%
Home or Draw
81.1%
1.11
1xBet
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
Betano
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
-3.7%
Home +1 handicap
81.1%
1.11
Marathonbet
1.13
Bet365
1.11
Unibet
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Betfair
1.08
+0.4%
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.9%
1.17
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
+1.2%
Over 1.5
79.7%
1.19
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
+0.8%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
79.0%
1.24
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
Unibet
1.21
+4.4%
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.6%
1.26
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
William Hil
1.25
10Bet
1.25
+4.2%
Over 19.5 fouls
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.1%
1.19
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-4.3%
Away under 1.5 goals
74.1%
1.23
Betano
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Pinnacle
1.24
1xBet
1.24
Bet365
1.22
-2.1%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
73.4%
1.43
Betano
1.47
10Bet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.41
1xBet
1.41
-
+8.5%
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.9%
1.29
Betano
1.34
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
+0.5%
Home under 2.5 goals
72.1%
1.47
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.48
1xBet
1.48
+8.4%
Under 4.5 cards
70.7%
1.37
Betano
1.40
Unibet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.34
-
-
+3.2%
Under 11.5 corners
70.6%
1.36
Unibet
1.41
Betano
1.36
Marathonbet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
-
+3.1%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Lens · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Odsonne Édouard35%
Florian Thauvin35%
Allan Saint-Maximin31%
Wesley Saïd26%
Abdallah Sima22%
Rayan Fofana17%
Adrien Thomasson11%
Ismaelo Ganiou10%
Amadou Haidara10%
Saud Abdulhamid10%
Mamadou Sangare9%
Andrija Bulatovic9%
Samson Baidoo8%
Matthieu Udol8%
Ruben Aguilar7%
Florian Sotoca7%
Morgan Guilavogui6%
Deiver Machado0%
Arthur Masuaku0%
Jonathan Gradit0%
Malang Sarr0%
Robin Risser0%
Nidal Čelik0%
Fode Sylla0%
Anthony Bermont0%
Kyllian Antonio0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nidal Čelik33%
Adrien Thomasson31%
Deiver Machado20%
Jonathan Gradit20%
Ruben Aguilar17%
Arthur Masuaku17%
Morgan Guilavogui17%
Florian Thauvin16%
Saud Abdulhamid16%
Allan Saint-Maximin15%
Mamadou Sangare15%
Kyllian Antonio14%
Abdallah Sima11%
Ismaelo Ganiou10%
Malang Sarr10%
Matthieu Udol10%
Andrija Bulatovic9%
Anthony Bermont9%
Wesley Saïd9%
Robin Risser8%
Samson Baidoo8%
Florian Sotoca7%
Odsonne Édouard6%
Amadou Haidara0%
Fode Sylla0%
Rayan Fofana0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Florian Thauvin22%
Matthieu Udol20%
Adrien Thomasson19%
Saud Abdulhamid19%
Andrija Bulatovic18%
Allan Saint-Maximin15%
Kyllian Antonio14%
Mamadou Sangare12%
Abdallah Sima11%
Amadou Haidara10%
Odsonne Édouard9%
Samson Baidoo8%
Ruben Aguilar7%
Wesley Saïd6%
Florian Sotoca3%
Robin Risser3%
Malang Sarr3%
Deiver Machado0%
Arthur Masuaku0%
Jonathan Gradit0%
Morgan Guilavogui0%
Ismaelo Ganiou0%
Nidal Čelik0%
Fode Sylla0%
Anthony Bermont0%
Rayan Fofana0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Wesley Saïd32%
Allan Saint-Maximin23%
Florian Thauvin22%
Deiver Machado20%
Odsonne Édouard18%
Matthieu Udol15%
Abdallah Sima11%
Rayan Fofana10%
Mamadou Sangare9%
Adrien Thomasson8%
Ismaelo Ganiou7%
Florian Sotoca7%
Morgan Guilavogui6%
Malang Sarr5%
Andrija Bulatovic5%
Samson Baidoo4%
Saud Abdulhamid3%
Amadou Haidara0%
Arthur Masuaku0%
Ruben Aguilar0%
Jonathan Gradit0%
Robin Risser0%
Nidal Čelik0%
Fode Sylla0%
Anthony Bermont0%
Kyllian Antonio0%
Lorient · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng44%
Pablo Pagis28%
Aiyegun Tosin18%
Noah Cadiou13%
Jean-Victor Makengo11%
Mohamed Bamba11%
Sambou Soumano9%
Théo Le Bris6%
Karim Dermane6%
Arthur Avom Ebong6%
Arsène Kouassi6%
Panos Katseris6%
Igor Silva5%
Laurent Abergel3%
Yvon Mvogo0%
Bingourou Kamara0%
Montassar Talbi0%
Darlin Yongwa0%
Joel Mugisha Mvuka0%
Bamo Meïté0%
Nathaniel Adjei0%
Abdoulaye Faye0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Abdoulaye Faye42%
Laurent Abergel27%
Bamo Meïté21%
Panos Katseris17%
Darlin Yongwa16%
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng16%
Mohamed Bamba16%
Arsène Kouassi15%
Bingourou Kamara14%
Montassar Talbi13%
Arthur Avom Ebong12%
Noah Cadiou6%
Sambou Soumano6%
Karim Dermane6%
Jean-Victor Makengo6%
Igor Silva5%
Aiyegun Tosin4%
Pablo Pagis3%
Yvon Mvogo0%
Joel Mugisha Mvuka0%
Théo Le Bris0%
Nathaniel Adjei0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Arsène Kouassi18%
Pablo Pagis12%
Panos Katseris11%
Igor Silva11%
Mohamed Bamba11%
Bamo Meïté10%
Théo Le Bris9%
Sambou Soumano6%
Karim Dermane6%
Joel Mugisha Mvuka6%
Jean-Victor Makengo6%
Darlin Yongwa4%
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng4%
Noah Cadiou3%
Montassar Talbi3%
Arthur Avom Ebong3%
Yvon Mvogo0%
Laurent Abergel0%
Bingourou Kamara0%
Aiyegun Tosin0%
Nathaniel Adjei0%
Abdoulaye Faye0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng32%
Pablo Pagis25%
Aiyegun Tosin11%
Mohamed Bamba11%
Arthur Avom Ebong6%
Jean-Victor Makengo6%
Nathaniel Adjei6%
Noah Cadiou3%
Sambou Soumano3%
Igor Silva0%
Yvon Mvogo0%
Laurent Abergel0%
Bingourou Kamara0%
Montassar Talbi0%
Darlin Yongwa0%
Joel Mugisha Mvuka0%
Théo Le Bris0%
Bamo Meïté0%
Karim Dermane0%
Panos Katseris0%
Arsène Kouassi0%
Abdoulaye Faye0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
STR (32)
€304m
LYO (32)
€293m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
LEN (27)
€187m
PF (37)
€176m
NIC (28)
€152m
TOU (24)
€115m
LOR (24)
€87m
AUX (29)
€84m
ANG (23)
€73m
SB2 (20)
€64m
LH (25)
€55m
ET (23)
€36m
LM (26)
€24m
Lens's squad is €100m more valuable than Lorient's (€187m vs €87m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
STR (13)
€112m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
NIC (8)
€62m
PF (13)
€59m
LEN (8)
€52m
ANG (9)
€30m
TOU (7)
€30m
SB2 (6)
€25m
AUX (11)
€23m
LOR (8)
€20m
LH (10)
€9m
ET (7)
€7m
LM (6)
€4m
Lens's attack is €32m more valuable than Lorient's (€52m vs €20m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
STR (6)
€56m
PF (7)
€54m
REN (5)
€44m
TOU (7)
€39m
LOR (5)
€32m
NIC (9)
€31m
AUX (5)
€28m
LEN (5)
€24m
LH (5)
€23m
SB2 (6)
€20m
ANG (3)
€11m
ET (6)
€11m
LM (8)
€5m
Lens's midfield is €8m less valuable than Lorient's (€24m vs €32m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
STR (13)
€136m
LEN (14)
€112m
REN (13)
€109m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
PF (17)
€62m
NIC (11)
€60m
TOU (10)
€46m
LOR (11)
€35m
AUX (13)
€33m
ANG (11)
€32m
LH (10)
€23m
SB2 (8)
€19m
ET (10)
€17m
LM (12)
€15m
Lens's defence is €77m more valuable than Lorient's (€112m vs €35m).
France: Ligue 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
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Lille
Monaco
Paris FC
Lyon
Rennes
Estac Troyes
Marseille
Angers
Strasbourg
Stade Brestois 29
Paris Saint Germain
Le Mans
Le Havre
Toulouse
Nice
Auxerre