The model favours a home win for Lernayin Artsakh, with a 42% chance, followed by a 26% draw and a 32% away win. The expected total of goals is 3.0, but the most likely total is 2 goals, occurring 24% of the time. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.3% probability, while the other two likely scores are 2-1 (9%) and 1-2 (7.7%). Lernayin Artsakh, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 0.71 goals scored and 2.71 conceded. Araks Ararat, on the road against a weaker side, averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.9%), Under 6.5 (96.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (94.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (92.1%), Under 5.5 (91.8%), Home +2 handicap (85.1%), Away under 2.5 goals (83.8%), and Under 4.5 (81.9%). Lernayin Artsakh’s recent form shows a win, while Araks Ararat comes off a defeat.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Lernayin Artsakh win
41.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Araks Ararat win
32.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Lernayin Artsakh
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
2.60
0.88
2.38
0.86
2.86
vs Stronger (13)
0.62
2.77
0.71
2.71
0.50
2.83
vs Similar (14)
1.14
2.71
1.12
2.25
1.17
3.33
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
1.33
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Araks Ararat) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Araks Ararat
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.77
1.60
1.47
1.07
2.07
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (12)
1.08
2.17
1.29
1.43
0.80
3.20
vs Weaker (16)
1.69
1.31
2.14
1.29
1.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Lernayin Artsakh) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.9%
Under 1.5
19.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
57.2%
Under 2.5
42.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
34.8%
Under 3.5
65.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.9%
No
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
2-1
9.0%
1-2
7.7%
1-0
7.0%
2-0
6.5%
0-0
6.2%
2-2
6.2%
0-1
5.9%
Lernayin Artsakh goals ↓
Araks Ararat goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.2%
5.9%
4.8%
2.2%
0.8%
1
7.0%
12%
7.7%
3.6%
1.2%
2
6.5%
9.0%
6.2%
2.9%
1.0%
3
3.5%
4.8%
3.3%
1.5%
0.5%
4
1.4%
1.9%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lernayin Artsakh goals (down), columns = Araks Ararat goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
BKMA II
2.37
Hayq
2.27
Andranik
2.20
Pyunik II
1.47
Olympia Yerevan
1.30
Ararat II
1.27
Araks Ararat
1.23
Banants II
1.20
Noah II
1.03
Bentonit Ijevan
0.97
Mika
0.93
Ararat-Armenia II
0.80
Lernayin Artsakh
0.79
Sardarapat 2
0.74
Shirak II
0.60
Lernayin Artsakh is 0.44 points worse than Araks Ararat in terms of average points per game (0.79 vs 1.23).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
BKMA II
2.57
Andranik
2.53
Hayq
1.97
Ararat-Armenia II
1.53
Banants II
1.53
Olympia Yerevan
1.50
Ararat II
1.43
Pyunik II
1.43
Noah II
1.30
Araks Ararat
1.27
Shirak II
1.13
Bentonit Ijevan
1.10
Mika
1.07
Sardarapat 2
0.85
Lernayin Artsakh
0.76
Lernayin Artsakh is 0.51 goals worse than Araks Ararat in terms of goals scored per game (0.76 vs 1.27).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hayq
0.80
Andranik
1.00
BKMA II
1.03
Pyunik II
1.43
Bentonit Ijevan
1.63
Araks Ararat
1.70
Olympia Yerevan
1.79
Banants II
1.80
Ararat II
1.93
Noah II
1.93
Mika
2.00
Ararat-Armenia II
2.07
Lernayin Artsakh
2.45
Shirak II
2.97
Sardarapat 2
3.15
Lernayin Artsakh is 0.75 goals worse than Araks Ararat in terms of goals conceded per game (2.45 vs 1.70).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Lernayin Artsakh or Draw
68.0%
Avg Implied -
42%
26%
32%
covers Lernayin Artsakh + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh or Araks Ararat
73.5%
Avg Implied -
42%
26%
32%
covers Lernayin Artsakh + Araks Ararat
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Araks Ararat
58.5%
Avg Implied -
42%
26%
32%
covers Draw + Araks Ararat
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 0.5
Over
79.8%
Under
20.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 1.5
Over
47.5%
Under
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 2.5
Over
21.6%
Under
78.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 3.5
Over
7.9%
Under
92.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araks Ararat over/under 0.5
Over
74.9%
Under
25.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araks Ararat over/under 1.5
Over
40.2%
Under
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araks Ararat over/under 2.5
Over
16.2%
Under
83.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araks Ararat over/under 3.5
Over
5.2%
Under
94.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Lernayin Artsakh, so a minus line means Lernayin Artsakh give that many goals of a start and Araks Ararat receive them. At -1, Lernayin Artsakh must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Lernayin Artsakh win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Lernayin Artsakh)
Lernayin Artsakh -2
8.8%
Draw -2
12.8%
Araks Ararat +2
78.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Lernayin Artsakh)
Lernayin Artsakh -1
21.6%
Draw -1
19.9%
Araks Ararat +1
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Lernayin Artsakh)
Lernayin Artsakh +1
68.0%
Draw +1
17.1%
Araks Ararat -1
14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Lernayin Artsakh)
Lernayin Artsakh +2
85.1%
Draw +2
9.6%
Araks Ararat -2
5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lernayin Artsakh
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.97
0.56
0.94
0.36
1.00
vs Stronger (13)
0.31
1.00
0.29
0.71
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (14)
0.57
1.00
0.88
1.25
0.17
0.67
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Araks Ararat) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Araks Ararat
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.83
0.67
0.73
0.60
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (12)
0.50
0.92
0.43
0.86
0.60
1.00
vs Weaker (16)
0.81
0.56
1.00
0.43
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Lernayin Artsakh) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araks Ararat over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araks Ararat over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araks Ararat over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lernayin Artsakh
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
1.63
0.31
1.44
0.50
1.86
vs Stronger (13)
0.31
1.77
0.43
2.00
0.17
1.50
vs Similar (14)
0.57
1.71
0.25
1.00
1.00
2.67
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Araks Ararat) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Araks Ararat
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.93
0.93
0.73
0.47
1.13
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (12)
0.58
1.25
0.86
0.57
0.20
2.20
vs Weaker (16)
0.88
0.75
1.14
0.86
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Lernayin Artsakh) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araks Ararat over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araks Ararat over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Araks Ararat over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Armenia: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Olympia Yerevan
BKMA II
Pyunik II
Andranik
Mika
Bentonit Ijevan
Banants II
Noah II
Shirak II
Sardarapat 2
Ararat-Armenia II
Hayq
Ararat II