Ararat-Armenia II is expected to win this match, with a predicted scoreline of 1-1. The expected total number of goals is 3.1, and the most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, occurring 22% of the time. Lernayin Artsakh has struggled at home, scoring an average of 0.57 goals and conceding 2.71 goals against stronger opponents. In contrast, Ararat-Armenia II has fared relatively well on the road, scoring 0.83 goals and conceding 1.33 goals against weaker opponents.
The model's selection for this match is an Away win, with a 48% probability. The suggested picks include Over 1.5, which has an 83% probability, and suggests that the match will see at least two goals scored. Home win percentage stands at 27%, draw percentage at 25%, and away win percentage at 48%.
Results analysis
Lernayin Artsakh's 1-0 win extends their run of form, coming off a win, despite Ararat-Armenia II's 5-game winning streak. The upset result was a surprise, as the pre-match favourite Ararat-Armenia II II did not come through, with a 48% pre-match probability of winning. The model's call was wrong, as they had picked Ararat-Armenia II to win. The model had also suggested Over 1.5 goals, which missed with 83% probability, while the most likely score was 1-1 with 11.5% probability.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Lernayin Artsakh win✓ Hit
26.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia II win✗ Miss
48.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Lernayin Artsakh
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
3.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
2.50
0.67
2.53
0.80
2.47
vs Stronger (14)
0.57
2.57
0.71
2.71
0.43
2.43
vs Similar (14)
0.93
2.71
0.71
2.57
1.14
2.86
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ararat-Armenia II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
2.07
1.71
2.14
1.12
2.00
vs Stronger (20)
1.55
2.35
1.90
2.20
1.20
2.50
vs Similar (10)
1.10
1.50
1.25
2.00
1.00
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Lernayin Artsakh) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
83.0%
Under 1.5
17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
60.5%
Under 2.5
39.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
38.2%
Under 3.5
61.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
62.3%
No
37.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%
1-2
9.5%
0-2
7.2%
0-1
6.9%
2-1
6.8%
2-2
6.2%
1-3
5.7%
0-0
5.4%
Lernayin Artsakh goals ↓
Ararat-Armenia II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.4%
6.9%
7.2%
4.4%
2.0%
1
4.7%
11%
9.5%
5.7%
2.6%
2
3.8%
6.8%
6.2%
3.8%
1.7%
3
1.6%
3.0%
2.7%
1.6%
0.7%
4
0.5%
1.0%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lernayin Artsakh goals (down), columns = Ararat-Armenia II goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
BKMA II
2.37
Hayq
2.27
Andranik
2.20
Pyunik II
1.47
Olympia Yerevan
1.30
Ararat II
1.27
Araks Ararat
1.23
Banants II
1.20
Noah II
1.03
Bentonit Ijevan
0.97
Mika
0.93
Ararat-Armenia II
0.80
Lernayin Artsakh
0.79
Sardarapat 2
0.74
Shirak II
0.60
Lernayin Artsakh is 0.01 points worse than Ararat-Armenia II in terms of average points per game (0.79 vs 0.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
BKMA II
2.57
Andranik
2.53
Hayq
1.97
Banants II
1.53
Ararat-Armenia II
1.53
Olympia Yerevan
1.50
Ararat II
1.43
Pyunik II
1.43
Noah II
1.30
Araks Ararat
1.27
Shirak II
1.13
Bentonit Ijevan
1.10
Mika
1.07
Sardarapat 2
0.85
Lernayin Artsakh
0.76
Lernayin Artsakh is 0.77 goals worse than Ararat-Armenia II in terms of goals scored per game (0.76 vs 1.53).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hayq
0.80
Andranik
1.00
BKMA II
1.03
Pyunik II
1.43
Bentonit Ijevan
1.63
Araks Ararat
1.70
Olympia Yerevan
1.79
Banants II
1.80
Noah II
1.93
Ararat II
1.93
Mika
2.00
Ararat-Armenia II
2.07
Lernayin Artsakh
2.45
Shirak II
2.97
Sardarapat 2
3.15
Lernayin Artsakh is 0.38 goals worse than Ararat-Armenia II in terms of goals conceded per game (2.45 vs 2.07).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lernayin Artsakh
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.90
0.33
1.00
0.33
0.80
vs Stronger (14)
0.29
0.93
0.29
0.71
0.29
1.14
vs Similar (14)
0.36
1.00
0.43
1.43
0.29
0.57
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ararat-Armenia II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.07
0.86
1.00
0.56
1.12
vs Stronger (20)
0.75
1.20
1.00
1.10
0.50
1.30
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.80
0.50
0.75
0.67
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Lernayin Artsakh) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lernayin Artsakh
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
1.60
0.33
1.53
0.47
1.67
vs Stronger (14)
0.29
1.64
0.43
2.00
0.14
1.29
vs Similar (14)
0.57
1.71
0.29
1.14
0.86
2.29
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat-Armenia II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ararat-Armenia II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.00
0.86
1.14
0.56
0.88
vs Stronger (20)
0.80
1.15
0.90
1.10
0.70
1.20
vs Similar (10)
0.50
0.70
0.75
1.25
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Lernayin Artsakh) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat-Armenia II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (29)
€1m
HAY (13)
€1m
BI (16)
€0m
OY (15)
€0m
BI (16)
€0m
MIK (21)
€0m
AI (11)
€0m
PI (13)
€0m
SI (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
LA (8)
€0m
NI (4)
€0m
S2 (2)
€0m
Lernayin Artsakh and Ararat-Armenia II have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (10)
€1m
HAY (8)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
SI (1)
€0m
MIK (4)
€0m
OY (2)
€0m
PI (1)
€0m
NI (1)
€0m
BI (2)
€0m
LA (1)
€0m
AI (0)
€0m
S2 (0)
€0m
Lernayin Artsakh and Ararat-Armenia II have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (8)
€0m
BI (6)
€0m
MIK (10)
€0m
AI (5)
€0m
OY (4)
€0m
SI (4)
€0m
BI (5)
€0m
PI (4)
€0m
LA (4)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
HAY (1)
€0m
NI (0)
€0m
S2 (0)
€0m
Lernayin Artsakh and Ararat-Armenia II have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (11)
€0m
OY (9)
€0m
HAY (4)
€0m
BI (8)
€0m
AI (6)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
PI (8)
€0m
MIK (7)
€0m
SI (3)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
NI (3)
€0m
LA (3)
€0m
S2 (2)
€0m
Lernayin Artsakh and Ararat-Armenia II have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Armenia: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Olympia Yerevan
BKMA II
Pyunik II
Andranik
Mika
Bentonit Ijevan
Banants II
Araks Ararat
Shirak II
Noah II
Sardarapat 2
Hayq
Ararat II