The model sees a high-scoring affair with an expected 3.2 goals, most likely 3 in total. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.1% chance. Lernayin Artsakh, at home, averages 0.67 goals scored and 3.0 conceded against similarly ranked opposition, while Banants II, on the road, averages 2.62 scored and 2.38 conceded. The probabilities for the match outcome are 26% for a home win, 24% for a draw, and 50% for an away win, making an away victory the model’s pick. Suggested picks include Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.9%, Under 7.5 total goals at 98.3%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.3%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 95.9%, Under 6.5 total goals at 95.4%, Home under 3.5 goals at 95.4%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 92.8%, and Home under 1.5 HT goals at 90.5%. Lernayin Artsakh is coming off a 1-3 loss to Mika, whereas Banants II is riding a 3-2 win over BKMA II.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Banants II, failed to deliver, as Lernayin Artsakh secured a 5-0 victory, extending their recent win streak. The model had picked an away win with a 50% probability, but the outcome proved wrong. The model’s selections were mixed: Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.3%) missed, Under 7.5 (98.3%) hit, Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.4%) hit, Home under 3.5 goals (95.4%) missed, Under 6.5 (95.4%) hit, Away under 2.5 HT goals (95.4%) hit, Away under 2.5 2H goals (91.7%) hit, and Home under 1.5 HT goals (91.1%) missed. The match confirmed the home side’s dominance, with the final score of 5-0.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Lernayin Artsakh win✓ Hit
25.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Banants II win✗ Miss
49.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Lernayin Artsakh
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
3.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
2.60
0.60
2.53
0.80
2.67
vs Stronger (14)
0.57
2.57
0.71
2.71
0.43
2.43
vs Similar (13)
0.85
2.92
0.57
2.57
1.17
3.33
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
1.33
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Banants II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Banants II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.93
1.64
1.86
1.75
2.00
vs Stronger (11)
1.00
1.73
1.40
1.80
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (13)
2.31
2.38
1.83
2.33
2.71
2.43
vs Weaker (6)
1.67
1.33
1.67
1.00
1.67
1.67
Clean sheet %
13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Lernayin Artsakh) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.1%
Under 1.5
15.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
62.4%
Under 2.5
37.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
40.2%
Under 3.5
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
63.4%
No
36.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.0%
1-2
9.5%
0-2
7.2%
2-1
6.7%
0-1
6.6%
2-2
6.3%
1-3
6.0%
0-0
5.0%
Lernayin Artsakh goals ↓
Banants II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.0%
6.6%
7.2%
4.5%
2.1%
1
4.3%
11%
9.5%
6.0%
2.8%
2
3.5%
6.7%
6.3%
4.0%
1.9%
3
1.6%
2.9%
2.8%
1.8%
0.8%
4
0.5%
1.0%
0.9%
0.6%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lernayin Artsakh goals (down), columns = Banants II goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
BKMA II
2.37
Hayq
2.27
Andranik
2.20
Pyunik II
1.47
Olympia Yerevan
1.30
Ararat II
1.27
Araks Ararat
1.23
Banants II
1.20
Noah II
1.03
Bentonit Ijevan
0.97
Mika
0.93
Ararat-Armenia II
0.80
Lernayin Artsakh
0.79
Sardarapat 2
0.74
Shirak II
0.60
Lernayin Artsakh is 0.41 points worse than Banants II in terms of average points per game (0.79 vs 1.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
BKMA II
2.57
Andranik
2.53
Hayq
1.97
Ararat-Armenia II
1.53
Banants II
1.53
Olympia Yerevan
1.50
Ararat II
1.43
Pyunik II
1.43
Noah II
1.30
Araks Ararat
1.27
Shirak II
1.13
Bentonit Ijevan
1.10
Mika
1.07
Sardarapat 2
0.85
Lernayin Artsakh
0.76
Lernayin Artsakh is 0.77 goals worse than Banants II in terms of goals scored per game (0.76 vs 1.53).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hayq
0.80
Andranik
1.00
BKMA II
1.03
Pyunik II
1.43
Bentonit Ijevan
1.63
Araks Ararat
1.70
Olympia Yerevan
1.79
Banants II
1.80
Ararat II
1.93
Noah II
1.93
Mika
2.00
Ararat-Armenia II
2.07
Lernayin Artsakh
2.45
Shirak II
2.97
Sardarapat 2
3.15
Lernayin Artsakh is 0.65 goals worse than Banants II in terms of goals conceded per game (2.45 vs 1.80).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Lernayin Artsakh or Draw✓ Hit
50.3%
Avg Implied -
26%
24%
50%
covers Lernayin Artsakh + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh or Banants II✓ Hit
75.6%
Avg Implied -
26%
24%
50%
covers Lernayin Artsakh + Banants II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Banants II✗ Miss
74.1%
Avg Implied -
26%
24%
50%
covers Draw + Banants II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
73.5%
Under
26.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
38.3%
Under
61.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
14.9%
Under
85.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
4.6%
Under
95.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banants II over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
84.9%
Under
15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banants II over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
56.4%
Under
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banants II over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
29.4%
Under
70.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banants II over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
12.4%
Under
87.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Lernayin Artsakh, so a minus line means Lernayin Artsakh give that many goals of a start and Banants II receive them. At -1, Lernayin Artsakh must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Lernayin Artsakh win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (Banants II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Banants II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.87
0.71
0.79
0.75
0.94
vs Stronger (11)
0.27
0.55
0.60
0.60
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (13)
1.08
1.23
0.83
1.17
1.29
1.29
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.67
0.67
0.33
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Lernayin Artsakh) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
73.1%
Under 0.5
26.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
35.7%
Under 1.5
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
13.7%
Under 2.5
86.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
37.4%
Under
62.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
8.9%
Under
91.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banants II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
57.1%
Under
42.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banants II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
17.6%
Under
82.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banants II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.6%
Under
95.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lernayin Artsakh
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
1.63
0.20
1.53
0.47
1.73
vs Stronger (14)
0.29
1.64
0.43
2.00
0.14
1.29
vs Similar (13)
0.46
1.85
0.00
1.14
1.00
2.67
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Banants II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Banants II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.07
0.93
1.07
1.00
1.06
vs Stronger (11)
0.73
1.18
0.80
1.20
0.67
1.17
vs Similar (13)
1.23
1.15
1.00
1.17
1.43
1.14
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.67
1.00
0.67
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Lernayin Artsakh) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.7%
Under 0.5
21.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
48.3%
Under 1.5
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
22.1%
Under 2.5
77.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
44.8%
Under
55.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
15.1%
Under
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banants II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
63.5%
Under
36.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banants II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
25.7%
Under
74.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Banants II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
8.3%
Under
91.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 7.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 6.5
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 3.5 goals
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Away
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away +1 handicap
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (29)
€1m
HAY (13)
€1m
BI (16)
€0m
OY (15)
€0m
BI (16)
€0m
MIK (21)
€0m
AI (11)
€0m
PI (13)
€0m
SI (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
LA (8)
€0m
NI (4)
€0m
S2 (2)
€0m
Lernayin Artsakh and Banants II have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (10)
€1m
HAY (8)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
SI (1)
€0m
MIK (4)
€0m
OY (2)
€0m
PI (1)
€0m
NI (1)
€0m
BI (2)
€0m
LA (1)
€0m
AI (0)
€0m
S2 (0)
€0m
Lernayin Artsakh and Banants II have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (8)
€0m
BI (6)
€0m
MIK (10)
€0m
AI (5)
€0m
OY (4)
€0m
SI (4)
€0m
BI (5)
€0m
PI (4)
€0m
LA (4)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
HAY (1)
€0m
NI (0)
€0m
S2 (0)
€0m
Lernayin Artsakh and Banants II have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (11)
€0m
OY (9)
€0m
HAY (4)
€0m
BI (8)
€0m
AI (6)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
PI (8)
€0m
MIK (7)
€0m
SI (3)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
NI (3)
€0m
LA (3)
€0m
S2 (2)
€0m
Lernayin Artsakh and Banants II have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Armenia: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Olympia Yerevan
BKMA II
Pyunik II
Andranik
Mika
Bentonit Ijevan
Noah II
Araks Ararat
Shirak II
Sardarapat 2
Ararat-Armenia II
Hayq
Ararat II