Lernayin Artsakh are the clear favourites, with a 66% chance of victory, and the model picks a home win as the most likely outcome. Their recent form, however, shows a slump after a 1-3 loss to Mika, yet the team still averages 3.88 goals scored and only 0.88 conceded at home against similarly matched opposition. Bentonit Ijevan, coming off a 3-3 draw with Pyunik II, averages 2.0 goals scored and 0.75 conceded on the road against comparable teams, but their 15% chance of winning reflects the home advantage. The expected total goals is 3.6, with the most probable total being three goals (21%). The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 for Lernayin, with a 9.4% probability. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 88.6% and Over 2.5 goals at 70.4%. The draw probability sits at 19% while the away win probability is 15%.
Results analysis
The upset was immediate: Lernayin Artsakh, the pre-match favourite with a 66% chance of triumph, fell to a 1-3 defeat, a result that left the model’s call wrong. The final score of 1-3 confirmed an away win, overturning the home side’s recent slump of four losses in five games. The model’s selection of a home win was therefore missed. Its other picks proved accurate: the Over 1.5 goal market hit, and the Over 2.5 goal market also hit, both with high probabilities of 88.6% and 70.4% respectively. The match ended with a total of four goals, exceeding the expected 3.6 and the most likely 3-goal outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Lernayin Artsakh win✗ Miss
65.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
19.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bentonit Ijevan win✓ Hit
15.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Lernayin Artsakh
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.63
1.17
3.21
0.86
2.12
1.44
vs Stronger (12)
1.50
1.17
1.75
1.25
1.38
1.12
vs Similar (15)
3.13
1.40
3.88
0.88
2.29
2.00
vs Weaker (3)
4.67
0.00
3.50
0.00
7.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Bentonit Ijevan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bentonit Ijevan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
2.15
1.78
2.00
1.45
2.27
vs Stronger (11)
1.00
3.00
0.75
2.75
1.14
3.14
vs Similar (9)
2.33
1.11
2.60
1.40
2.00
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Lernayin Artsakh) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.6%
Under 1.5
11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
70.4%
Under 2.5
29.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
49.3%
Under 3.5
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
63.4%
No
36.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.4%
1-1
8.3%
2-0
8.2%
3-1
7.8%
3-0
6.8%
1-0
5.8%
2-2
5.4%
4-1
4.8%
Lernayin Artsakh goals ↓
Bentonit Ijevan goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.4%
2.3%
1.7%
0.7%
0.2%
1
5.8%
8.3%
4.3%
1.7%
0.5%
2
8.2%
9.4%
5.4%
2.1%
0.6%
3
6.8%
7.8%
4.5%
1.7%
0.5%
4
4.2%
4.8%
2.8%
1.1%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lernayin Artsakh goals (down), columns = Bentonit Ijevan goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
BKMA II
2.62
Syunik
2.54
Noah II
1.92
Lernayin Artsakh
1.75
Banants II
1.58
Pyunik II
1.54
Andranik
1.42
Shirak II
1.33
Ararat II
1.21
Bentonit Ijevan
1.00
Ararat-Armenia II
0.79
Mika
0.67
Nikarm
0.04
Lernayin Artsakh is 0.75 points better than Bentonit Ijevan in terms of average points per game (1.75 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
BKMA II
3.21
Syunik
2.67
Lernayin Artsakh
2.50
Banants II
1.96
Noah II
1.96
Pyunik II
1.96
Ararat II
1.83
Shirak II
1.79
Andranik
1.71
Bentonit Ijevan
1.58
Ararat-Armenia II
1.25
Mika
1.04
Nikarm
0.71
Lernayin Artsakh is 0.92 goals better than Bentonit Ijevan in terms of goals scored per game (2.50 vs 1.58).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Syunik
0.54
BKMA II
0.71
Noah II
1.21
Banants II
1.38
Lernayin Artsakh
1.42
Pyunik II
1.54
Andranik
1.67
Shirak II
1.96
Ararat II
2.00
Bentonit Ijevan
2.21
Ararat-Armenia II
2.29
Mika
2.96
Nikarm
4.29
Lernayin Artsakh is 0.79 goals better than Bentonit Ijevan in terms of goals conceded per game (1.42 vs 2.21).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lernayin Artsakh
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.57
1.20
0.33
0.87
0.80
vs Stronger (11)
0.73
0.45
0.75
0.75
0.71
0.29
vs Similar (16)
1.06
0.75
1.33
0.22
0.71
1.43
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Bentonit Ijevan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bentonit Ijevan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.68
1.05
1.00
0.67
0.40
1.40
vs Stronger (11)
0.36
1.45
0.75
0.75
0.14
1.86
vs Similar (8)
1.12
0.50
1.20
0.60
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
42% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Lernayin Artsakh) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bentonit Ijevan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bentonit Ijevan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bentonit Ijevan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lernayin Artsakh
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
0.53
2.00
0.40
1.27
0.67
vs Stronger (11)
0.82
0.64
1.00
0.50
0.71
0.71
vs Similar (16)
2.00
0.56
2.44
0.44
1.43
0.71
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
0.00
2.00
0.00
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Bentonit Ijevan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bentonit Ijevan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.95
1.16
0.78
1.33
1.10
1.00
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
1.55
0.00
2.00
1.00
1.29
vs Similar (8)
1.38
0.62
1.40
0.80
1.33
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
32% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Lernayin Artsakh) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bentonit Ijevan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bentonit Ijevan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bentonit Ijevan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SYU (23)
€2m
AND (29)
€1m
BI (16)
€0m
BI (16)
€0m
MIK (21)
€0m
AI (11)
€0m
PI (13)
€0m
SI (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
LA (8)
€0m
NI (4)
€0m
Lernayin Artsakh and Bentonit Ijevan have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SYU (9)
€1m
AND (10)
€1m
BI (3)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
SI (1)
€0m
MIK (4)
€0m
PI (1)
€0m
NI (1)
€0m
BI (2)
€0m
LA (1)
€0m
AI (0)
€0m
Lernayin Artsakh and Bentonit Ijevan have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SYU (6)
€0m
AND (8)
€0m
BI (6)
€0m
MIK (10)
€0m
AI (5)
€0m
SI (4)
€0m
BI (5)
€0m
PI (4)
€0m
LA (4)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
NI (0)
€0m
Lernayin Artsakh and Bentonit Ijevan have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SYU (8)
€0m
AND (11)
€0m
BI (8)
€0m
AI (6)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
PI (8)
€0m
MIK (7)
€0m
SI (3)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
NI (3)
€0m
LA (3)
€0m
Lernayin Artsakh and Bentonit Ijevan have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Armenia: First League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
BKMA II
Syunik
Noah II
Banants II
Pyunik II
Andranik
Shirak II
Ararat II
Ararat-Armenia II
Mika
Nikarm