Lernayin Artsakh, riding a win-heavy streak that saw them dispatch Banants II 5-0, are the clear favourite in this First League encounter, with the model assigning a 77% chance of a home victory. Their home form against weaker opposition shows a modest 0.0 average goals scored but a 1.0 average conceded, while Sardarapat 2, playing away against stronger teams, averages 0.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. The model therefore expects a 3.2-goal match, with the most likely total of 3 goals (22%) and the single most probable scoreline 2-0, a 12.8% probability. The predicted outcome is a home win, and the expected total goals sit at 3.2. The probabilities for the match result are 77%home win, 16% draw, and 7% away win. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals at 99.4%, Under 7.5 at 98.3%, Home +2 handicap at 97.9%, Away under 2.5 goals at 96.7%, Under 6.5 at 95.4%, Home or Draw at 92.6%, Home +1 handicap at 92.6%, and Home over 0.5 goals at 92.0%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Lernayin Artsakh win
76.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
16.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat 2 win
7.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Lernayin Artsakh
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
2.60
0.88
2.38
0.86
2.86
vs Stronger (13)
0.62
2.77
0.71
2.71
0.50
2.83
vs Similar (14)
1.14
2.71
1.12
2.25
1.17
3.33
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
1.33
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Sardarapat 2) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sardarapat 2
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
0.33
1.33
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
25% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Lernayin Artsakh) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.9%
Under 1.5
16.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
62.5%
Under 2.5
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
40.3%
Under 3.5
59.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
46.7%
No
53.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.8%
3-0
10.8%
1-0
9.4%
2-1
8.8%
1-1
7.7%
3-1
7.5%
4-0
6.8%
4-1
4.7%
Lernayin Artsakh goals ↓
Sardarapat 2 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.7%
2.1%
1.0%
0.2%
0.0%
1
9.4%
7.7%
2.4%
0.6%
0.1%
2
13%
8.8%
3.1%
0.7%
0.1%
3
11%
7.5%
2.6%
0.6%
0.1%
4
6.8%
4.7%
1.6%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lernayin Artsakh goals (down), columns = Sardarapat 2 goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
BKMA II
2.37
Hayq
2.27
Andranik
2.20
Pyunik II
1.47
Olympia Yerevan
1.30
Ararat II
1.27
Araks Ararat
1.23
Banants II
1.20
Noah II
1.03
Bentonit Ijevan
0.97
Mika
0.93
Ararat-Armenia II
0.80
Lernayin Artsakh
0.79
Sardarapat 2
0.74
Shirak II
0.60
Lernayin Artsakh is 0.06 points better than Sardarapat 2 in terms of average points per game (0.79 vs 0.74).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
BKMA II
2.57
Andranik
2.53
Hayq
1.97
Ararat-Armenia II
1.53
Banants II
1.53
Olympia Yerevan
1.50
Ararat II
1.43
Pyunik II
1.43
Noah II
1.30
Araks Ararat
1.27
Shirak II
1.13
Bentonit Ijevan
1.10
Mika
1.07
Sardarapat 2
0.85
Lernayin Artsakh
0.76
Lernayin Artsakh is 0.09 goals worse than Sardarapat 2 in terms of goals scored per game (0.76 vs 0.85).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hayq
0.80
Andranik
1.00
BKMA II
1.03
Pyunik II
1.43
Bentonit Ijevan
1.63
Araks Ararat
1.70
Olympia Yerevan
1.79
Banants II
1.80
Ararat II
1.93
Noah II
1.93
Mika
2.00
Ararat-Armenia II
2.07
Lernayin Artsakh
2.45
Shirak II
2.97
Sardarapat 2
3.15
Lernayin Artsakh is 0.70 goals better than Sardarapat 2 in terms of goals conceded per game (2.45 vs 3.15).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Lernayin Artsakh or Draw
92.6%
Avg Implied -
77%
16%
7%
covers Lernayin Artsakh + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh or Sardarapat 2
83.9%
Avg Implied -
77%
16%
7%
covers Lernayin Artsakh + Sardarapat 2
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Sardarapat 2
23.5%
Avg Implied -
77%
16%
7%
covers Draw + Sardarapat 2
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 0.5
Over
92.0%
Under
8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 1.5
Over
71.9%
Under
28.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 2.5
Over
46.4%
Under
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 3.5
Over
24.9%
Under
75.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat 2 over/under 0.5
Over
50.0%
Under
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat 2 over/under 1.5
Over
15.3%
Under
84.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat 2 over/under 2.5
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat 2 over/under 3.5
Over
0.6%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Lernayin Artsakh, so a minus line means Lernayin Artsakh give that many goals of a start and Sardarapat 2 receive them. At -1, Lernayin Artsakh must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Lernayin Artsakh win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Lernayin Artsakh)
Lernayin Artsakh -2
33.3%
Draw -2
22.0%
Sardarapat 2 +2
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Lernayin Artsakh)
Lernayin Artsakh -1
55.3%
Draw -1
21.2%
Sardarapat 2 +1
23.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Lernayin Artsakh)
Lernayin Artsakh +1
92.6%
Draw +1
5.3%
Sardarapat 2 -1
2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Lernayin Artsakh)
Lernayin Artsakh +2
97.9%
Draw +2
1.7%
Sardarapat 2 -2
0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lernayin Artsakh
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.97
0.56
0.94
0.36
1.00
vs Stronger (13)
0.31
1.00
0.29
0.71
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (14)
0.57
1.00
0.88
1.25
0.17
0.67
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Sardarapat 2) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sardarapat 2
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.67
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
75% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (Lernayin Artsakh) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat 2 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat 2 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat 2 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lernayin Artsakh
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
1.63
0.31
1.44
0.50
1.86
vs Stronger (13)
0.31
1.77
0.43
2.00
0.17
1.50
vs Similar (14)
0.57
1.71
0.25
1.00
1.00
2.67
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Sardarapat 2) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sardarapat 2
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
25% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Lernayin Artsakh) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat 2 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat 2 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sardarapat 2 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (29)
€1m
HAY (13)
€1m
BI (16)
€0m
OY (15)
€0m
BI (16)
€0m
MIK (21)
€0m
AI (11)
€0m
PI (13)
€0m
SI (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
LA (8)
€0m
NI (4)
€0m
S2 (2)
€0m
Lernayin Artsakh and Sardarapat 2 have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (10)
€1m
HAY (8)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
SI (1)
€0m
MIK (4)
€0m
OY (2)
€0m
PI (1)
€0m
NI (1)
€0m
BI (2)
€0m
LA (1)
€0m
AI (0)
€0m
S2 (0)
€0m
Lernayin Artsakh and Sardarapat 2 have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (8)
€0m
BI (6)
€0m
MIK (10)
€0m
AI (5)
€0m
OY (4)
€0m
SI (4)
€0m
BI (5)
€0m
PI (4)
€0m
LA (4)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
HAY (1)
€0m
NI (0)
€0m
S2 (0)
€0m
Lernayin Artsakh and Sardarapat 2 have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (11)
€0m
OY (9)
€0m
HAY (4)
€0m
BI (8)
€0m
AI (6)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
PI (8)
€0m
MIK (7)
€0m
SI (3)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
NI (3)
€0m
LA (3)
€0m
S2 (2)
€0m
Lernayin Artsakh and Sardarapat 2 have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Armenia: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Olympia Yerevan
BKMA II
Pyunik II
Andranik
Mika
Bentonit Ijevan
Banants II
Noah II
Araks Ararat
Shirak II
Ararat-Armenia II
Hayq
Ararat II