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Lernayin Artsakh vs Shirak II Result & Analysis

Date: 28/04/2024
Time: 12:00
Final 2-1
Lernayin Artsakh
Lernayin Artsakh
Vs
78%
15%
7%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Shirak II
Shirak II
Armenia: First League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Lernayin Artsakh are the clear favourite, with the model assigning a 78% chance of a home win, a 15% chance of a draw and only 7% for a Shirak II victory. The prediction is driven by Lernayin’s solid home form - they average 2.57 goals scored and only 0.86 conceded against similar opposition - while Shirak II, struggling away, concedes 2.29 and scores just 1.14. The expected total is 3.5 goals, centring on a 3-goal match, and the single most likely scoreline is 2-0 with an 11% probability. The model’s selections include an 87.4% chance of over 1.5 goals and a 77.7% chance of a home win. Lernayin’s recent run of LWLLL after a 1-3 loss to Mika shows resilience at home, whereas Shirak II’s last five include a win, yet their away performance remains weak. The model’s pick of a home win reflects the venue advantage and the stark difference in defensive solidity.

Results analysis

Lernayin Artsakh finished 2-1 against Shirak II (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 78% home win, 15% draw and 7% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (87%), Home win (78%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Lernayin Artsakh win✓ Hit
77.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
14.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Shirak II win✗ Miss
7.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Lernayin ArtsakhLernayin Artsakh

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-601L20W11D60W30W61W10W13L30W20WA·NOA12/11H·NOA27/11A·BAN03/12H·NIK22/02H·PYU03/03H·ONO16/03A·GAN29/03A·BKM04/04H·MIK11/04A·NIK21/04
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.202.071.071.071.33
vs Stronger (13)1.151.381.431.430.831.33
vs Similar (15)1.931.002.570.861.381.12
vs Weaker (2)1.501.503.000.000.003.00
Clean sheet %33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Shirak II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Shirak IIShirak II

Last 10 – goals for & against
90-914L32W10W16L02L22D21W01L90W04LA·SYU05/11H·ALA09/11H·ARA29/11H·ARA06/12H·NOA04/03A·BAN11/03H·PYU17/03A·GAN05/04H·ONO10/04A·BKM16/04
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.801.691.501.072.14
vs Stronger (13)1.002.151.002.001.002.33
vs Similar (15)1.731.732.251.251.142.29
vs Weaker (2)1.500.002.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Lernayin Artsakh) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%119%222%319%413%515%6+
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.4%
Under 1.5
12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
68.6%
Under 2.5
31.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
47.1%
Under 3.5
52.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.6%
No
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.0%
3-0
10.1%
2-1 ✓
8.7%
3-1
8.0%
1-0
7.4%
4-0
7.0%
1-1
6.9%
4-1
5.5%
Lernayin Artsakh goals ↓
Shirak II goals →
01234
03.6%1.7%0.9%0.2%0.0%
17.4%6.9%2.5%0.7%0.1%
211%8.7%3.4%0.9%0.2%
310%8.0%3.1%0.8%0.2%
47.0%5.5%2.1%0.6%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lernayin Artsakh goals (down), columns = Shirak II goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Gandzasar
2.64
BKMA II
2.25
Syunik
2.22
Lernayin Artsakh
2.07
Banants II
1.50
Andranik
1.46
Noah II
1.39
Ararat-Armenia II
1.39
Alashkert II
1.32
Shirak II
1.18
Ararat II
1.14
Pyunik II
1.07
Mika
0.61
Onor
0.59
Nikarm
0.43
Lernayin Artsakh is 0.89 points better than Shirak II in terms of average points per game (2.07 vs 1.18).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
BKMA II
2.89
Gandzasar
2.46
Lernayin Artsakh
2.21
Syunik
2.19
Noah II
1.89
Ararat II
1.86
Banants II
1.82
Pyunik II
1.79
Ararat-Armenia II
1.71
Alashkert II
1.64
Shirak II
1.46
Andranik
1.32
Nikarm
0.96
Onor
0.85
Mika
0.75
Lernayin Artsakh is 0.75 goals better than Shirak II in terms of goals scored per game (2.21 vs 1.46).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Gandzasar
0.61
Syunik
0.89
Lernayin Artsakh
0.96
BKMA II
1.11
Banants II
1.21
Noah II
1.36
Andranik
1.46
Ararat-Armenia II
1.46
Ararat II
1.68
Alashkert II
1.75
Shirak II
1.79
Pyunik II
2.04
Mika
2.14
Onor
3.04
Nikarm
4.36
Lernayin Artsakh is 0.82 goals better than Shirak II in terms of goals conceded per game (0.96 vs 1.79).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Lernayin ArtsakhLernayin Artsakh

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D00D00D11D20W10W00D02L10WH·ALA31/10A·ARA03/11H·ARA07/11H·NOA27/11A·BAN03/12H·NIK22/02H·PYU03/03A·GAN29/03A·BKM04/04H·MIK11/04
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.570.730.530.270.60
vs Stronger (15)0.530.670.880.620.140.71
vs Similar (13)0.460.540.500.500.430.57
vs Weaker (2)0.500.001.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Shirak II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Shirak IIShirak II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L00D11D20W15L10W00D01L40W02LA·NIK20/10H·AND31/10A·SYU05/11H·ALA09/11H·ARA06/12A·BAN11/03H·PYU17/03A·GAN05/04H·ONO10/04A·BKM16/04
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.620.720.920.830.410.65
vs Stronger (16)0.501.000.621.120.380.88
vs Similar (12)0.830.332.000.000.440.44
vs Weaker (1)0.001.000.001.00--
Clean sheet %52% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Lernayin Artsakh) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Lernayin ArtsakhLernayin Artsakh

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D11D00D20W00D40W20W10W11D20WH·ALA31/10A·ARA03/11H·ARA07/11H·NOA27/11A·BAN03/12H·NIK22/02H·PYU03/03A·GAN29/03A·BKM04/04H·MIK11/04
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.830.930.600.401.07
vs Stronger (15)0.470.930.380.880.571.00
vs Similar (13)0.850.621.500.330.290.86
vs Weaker (2)1.001.502.000.000.003.00
Clean sheet %43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Shirak II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Shirak IIShirak II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-522D01L03L12L01L12L21W00D50W02LA·NIK20/10H·AND31/10A·SYU05/11H·ALA09/11H·ARA06/12A·BAN11/03H·PYU17/03A·GAN05/04H·ONO10/04A·BKM16/04
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.971.171.331.000.711.29
vs Stronger (16)0.811.120.881.000.751.25
vs Similar (12)1.171.252.671.000.671.33
vs Weaker (1)1.001.001.001.00--
Clean sheet %28% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Lernayin Artsakh) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lernayin Artsakh over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.587.4%-------✓ Hit
Home win77.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAN (25)
€3m
SYU (23)
€2m
AND (29)
€1m
BI (16)
€0m
MIK (21)
€0m
AI (11)
€0m
PI (13)
€0m
SI (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
LA (8)
€0m
NI (4)
€0m
Lernayin Artsakh and Shirak II have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAN (8)
€1m
SYU (9)
€1m
AND (10)
€1m
BI (3)
€0m
SI (1)
€0m
MIK (4)
€0m
PI (1)
€0m
NI (1)
€0m
BI (2)
€0m
LA (1)
€0m
AI (0)
€0m
Lernayin Artsakh and Shirak II have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAN (5)
€1m
SYU (6)
€0m
AND (8)
€0m
BI (6)
€0m
MIK (10)
€0m
AI (5)
€0m
SI (4)
€0m
PI (4)
€0m
LA (4)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
NI (0)
€0m
Lernayin Artsakh and Shirak II have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAN (12)
€1m
SYU (8)
€0m
AND (11)
€0m
AI (6)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
PI (8)
€0m
MIK (7)
€0m
SI (3)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
NI (3)
€0m
LA (3)
€0m
Lernayin Artsakh and Shirak II have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
LA wins
0
Draws
0
SI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Lernayin Artsakh vs Shirak II · H/A from LA
DateH/AGameScore
02/10/23AShirak II Vs LA1-4

Lernayin ArtsakhLernayin Artsakh

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/04/24ANikarm Vs LA0-2
11/04/24HLA Vs Mika3-0
04/04/24ABKMA II Vs LA3-1
29/03/24AGandzasar Vs LA0-1
16/03/24HLA Vs Onor6-1
03/03/24HLA Vs Pyunik II3-0
22/02/24HLA Vs Nikarm6-0
03/12/23ABanants II Vs LA1-1
27/11/23HLA Vs Noah II2-0
12/11/23ANoah II Vs LA1-0

Shirak IIShirak II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/04/24ABKMA II Vs SI4-0
10/04/24HSI Vs Onor9-0
05/04/24AGandzasar Vs SI1-0
17/03/24HSI Vs Pyunik II2-1
11/03/24ABanants II Vs SI2-2
04/03/24HSI Vs Noah II0-2
06/12/23HSI Vs Ararat II1-6
29/11/23HSI Vs Ararat-Armenia II1-0
09/11/23HSI Vs Alashkert II3-2
05/11/23ASyunik Vs SI4-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Lernayin Artsakh
Lernayin Artsakh
Armenia: First League
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLWW1.10
HomeWWWWW1.21
AwayLDWLW1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%33%27%
AVG goals2.542.882.23
Over 1.5 %74%79%69%
Over 2.5 %44%50%38%
Over 3.5 %22%29%15%
Scored1.101.420.81
Conceded1.441.461.42
BTTS34%29%38%
Clean Sheet28%38%19%
Corners---
Cards---
Shirak II
Shirak II
Armenia: First League
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLWL1.20
HomeWLLWW1.56
AwayLLDLL0.84
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%48%24%
AVG goals2.842.722.96
Over 1.5 %70%64%76%
Over 2.5 %52%40%64%
Over 3.5 %30%24%36%
Scored1.281.441.12
Conceded1.561.281.84
BTTS48%40%56%
Clean Sheet28%36%20%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1GandzasarGandzasar2874
86%
2.6
6917+52
3.1
82%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.50.6
-
2BKMA IIBKMA II2863
71%
2.2
8131+50
4.0
93%
79%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.91.1
-
3SyunikSyunik2760
70%
2.2
5924+35
3.1
70%
52%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1002.20.9
-
4Lernayin ArtsakhLernayin Artsakh2858
64%
2.1
6227+35
3.2
86%
57%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
5Banants IIBanants II2842
36%
1.5
5134+17
3.0
75%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.2
-
6AndranikAndranik2841
43%
1.5
3741-4
2.8
75%
54%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.31.5
-
7Noah IINoah II2839
39%
1.4
5338+15
3.2
79%
50%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.4
-
8Ararat-Armenia IIArarat-Armenia II2839
39%
1.4
4841+7
3.2
82%
57%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.5
-
9Alashkert IIAlashkert II2837
36%
1.3
4649-3
3.4
75%
71%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.8
-
10Shirak IIShirak II2833
36%
1.2
4150-9
3.2
71%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.8
-
11Ararat IIArarat II2832
32%
1.1
5247+5
3.5
79%
71%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.7
-
12Pyunik IIPyunik II2830
32%
1.1
5057-7
3.8
82%
68%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.82.0
-
13MikaMika2817
14%
0.6
2160-39
2.9
71%
61%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.1
-
14OnorOnor2716
15%
0.6
2382-59
3.9
78%
67%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.93.0
-
15NikarmNikarm2812
14%
0.4
27122-95
5.3
86%
79%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.04.4
-
Armenia: First League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: First League stats & trends →

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